Snapshot
- subject_area: Uranium futures
- target_market_code: uranium
- ticker: null
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: medium_reversal_risk_mixed_authority
- generated_at: 2026-03-18T21:05:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| uranium | B-UR-001 | Uranium (U3O8-linked) pricing bias remains upward over the next 24h as supply-chain/geopolitical supply-risk narratives stay active alongside supportive nuclear-policy demand framing. | 62 | up | stable | 24h | false | 58 |
| uranium | B-UR-002 | Near-term uranium sentiment momentum is strengthening (headline heat rising into the last 24h) as higher-authority anchors (Tier A) appear in several policy/supply narratives, increasing attention density. | 58 | up | accelerating | 6h | false | 58 |
| uranium | B-UR-003 | Reversal/pullback risk is non-trivial because the evidence set is broad but partially low-authority and slow-burn; a small negative catalyst could flip short-horizon sentiment quickly. | 33 | mixed | stable | 6h | false | 58 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-uranium-20260318T210500Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-18T21:05:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Uranium futures",
"market_code": "uranium"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 68,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "uranium",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"uranium"
],
"regime_state": "tightening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-UR-001",
"market": "uranium",
"claim": "Uranium (U3O8-linked) pricing bias remains upward over the next 24h as supply-chain/geopolitical supply-risk narratives stay active alongside supportive nuclear-policy demand framing.",
"probability_pct": 62,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"geopolitical_supply_risk",
"supply_contracting",
"policy_nuclear",
"reactor_demand"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-UR-003"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-UR-002",
"market": "uranium",
"claim": "Near-term uranium sentiment momentum is strengthening (headline heat rising into the last 24h) as higher-authority anchors (Tier A) appear in several policy/supply narratives, increasing attention density.",
"probability_pct": 58,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"policy_nuclear",
"geopolitical_supply_risk",
"inventory"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-UR-003"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-UR-003",
"market": "uranium",
"claim": "Reversal/pullback risk is non-trivial because the evidence set is broad but partially low-authority and slow-burn; a small negative catalyst could flip short-horizon sentiment quickly.",
"probability_pct": 33,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"data_quality_noise",
"narrative_whipsaw_risk"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-UR-001",
"B-UR-002"
]
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "uranium",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"conviction_score_0_100": 68,
"freshness_confidence": "medium",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-UR-001",
"B-UR-002",
"B-UR-003"
]
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "medium_reversal_risk_mixed_authority",
"market": "uranium",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "Strong bullish cluster present, but several contributing items are slow-burn and/or lower-authority; susceptible to headline-driven swings."
},
{
"flag": "slow_burn_narrative_overhang",
"market": "uranium",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "Multiple themes span >7 days; persistence is supportive but can mask short-horizon inflections."
},
{
"flag": "echo_risk_in_vip_lane",
"market": "uranium",
"severity": "low",
"details": "Several VIP outliers are single-source; treated as weak incremental support only."
},
{
"flag": "input_timestamp_inconsistency_guard",
"market": "uranium",
"severity": "low",
"details": "Some evidence bundles show newest timestamps later on 2026-03-18; recency weighting applied relative to snapshot timestamp."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "uranium",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"trigger_condition": "Directional score stays >= +20 with fresh evidence count remaining > stale evidence count over the next 6h."
},
{
"market": "uranium",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"trigger_condition": "Contradiction ratio rises above ~0.25 in the next 6h or a new high-authority opposing headline appears within a 2h window."
},
{
"market": "uranium",
"confidence": "low",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"trigger_condition": "Directional score falls toward the neutral band (between -20 and +20) while fresh opposing evidence appears."
},
{
"market": "uranium",
"confidence": "low",
"action": "stay_flat",
"trigger_condition": "If freshness confidence degrades to low (data becomes sparse) and net sentiment score stays near zero."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"uranium"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 44,
"bearish_pressure_score": 16,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 45,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 53,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 27,
"bullish_pressure_score": 43,
"bearish_pressure_score": 16,
"net_sentiment_score": 27,
"velocity_score": -3,
"acceleration_score": -5,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 51,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 25,
"bullish_pressure_score": 41,
"bearish_pressure_score": 16,
"net_sentiment_score": 25,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 26,
"bullish_pressure_score": 42,
"bearish_pressure_score": 16,
"net_sentiment_score": 26,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 51,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 29,
"bullish_pressure_score": 45,
"bearish_pressure_score": 16,
"net_sentiment_score": 29,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 53,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 31,
"bullish_pressure_score": 47,
"bearish_pressure_score": 16,
"net_sentiment_score": 31,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 33,
"bullish_pressure_score": 49,
"bearish_pressure_score": 16,
"net_sentiment_score": 33,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 35,
"bullish_pressure_score": 51,
"bearish_pressure_score": 16,
"net_sentiment_score": 35,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 57,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 34,
"bullish_pressure_score": 50,
"bearish_pressure_score": 16,
"net_sentiment_score": 34,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 36,
"bullish_pressure_score": 52,
"bearish_pressure_score": 16,
"net_sentiment_score": 36,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 38,
"bullish_pressure_score": 54,
"bearish_pressure_score": 16,
"net_sentiment_score": 38,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 59,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 40,
"bullish_pressure_score": 56,
"bearish_pressure_score": 16,
"net_sentiment_score": 40,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 61,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 42,
"bullish_pressure_score": 58,
"bearish_pressure_score": 16,
"net_sentiment_score": 42,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 45,
"bullish_pressure_score": 61,
"bearish_pressure_score": 16,
"net_sentiment_score": 45,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 65,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 43,
"bullish_pressure_score": 59,
"bearish_pressure_score": 16,
"net_sentiment_score": 43,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -5,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 44,
"bullish_pressure_score": 60,
"bearish_pressure_score": 16,
"net_sentiment_score": 44,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 46,
"bullish_pressure_score": 62,
"bearish_pressure_score": 16,
"net_sentiment_score": 46,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 48,
"bullish_pressure_score": 64,
"bearish_pressure_score": 16,
"net_sentiment_score": 48,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 67,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 47,
"bullish_pressure_score": 63,
"bearish_pressure_score": 16,
"net_sentiment_score": 47,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 67,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 49,
"bullish_pressure_score": 65,
"bearish_pressure_score": 16,
"net_sentiment_score": 49,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 68,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 52,
"bullish_pressure_score": 68,
"bearish_pressure_score": 16,
"net_sentiment_score": 52,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 70,
"fragility_score_0_100": 53,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 50,
"bullish_pressure_score": 66,
"bearish_pressure_score": 16,
"net_sentiment_score": 50,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -5,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 69,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 54,
"bullish_pressure_score": 70,
"bearish_pressure_score": 16,
"net_sentiment_score": 54,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 54,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 6,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 12,
"cross_domain_merges": 4,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Target scope resolved explicitly from flight_plan.target_market_code=uranium.",
"No explicit contradictions provided in input; reversal risk estimated from authority-mix/echo-risk and slow-burn narrative characteristics.",
"State_change set to new_bullish due to lack of reliable prior-state memory in provided inputs."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}