Snapshot
- subject_area: Uranium futures
- target_market_code: uranium
- ticker: null
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: stale_context_overhang
- generated_at: 2026-03-18 16:40 UTC
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim (trimmed) | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| uranium | B-UR-001 | Uranium futures have an upside bias over the next 6h as fresh supply-chain/geopolitical supply-risk signals (Kazakhstan/Kazatomprom-linked narratives) remain the dominant incremental driver. | 61 | up | accelerating | 6h | false | 48 |
| uranium | B-UR-002 | Over the next 24h, supportive nuclear-policy and energy-security narratives (regulatory/policy visibility, reactor demand framing) add persistence to the upside bias. | 64 | up | stable | 24h | false | 48 |
| uranium | B-UR-003 | Despite the bullish bias, the thesis is moderately fragile due to narrative dependence and mixed authority/echo characteristics in parts of the evidence set; short-horizon whipsaw risk remains elevated. | 56 | mixed | stable | 24h | false | 48 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "snap_6B_uranium_20260318T164000Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-18T16:40:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Uranium futures",
"market_code": "uranium"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 69,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 48,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "uranium",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"uranium"
],
"regime_state": "tightening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-UR-001",
"market": "uranium",
"claim": "Uranium futures have an upside bias over the next 6h as fresh supply-chain/geopolitical supply-risk signals (Kazakhstan/Kazatomprom-linked narratives) remain the dominant incremental driver.",
"probability_pct": 61,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"geopolitical_supply_risk",
"supply_contracting",
"inventory"
],
"contradicted_by": []
},
{
"belief_id": "B-UR-002",
"market": "uranium",
"claim": "Over the next 24h, supportive nuclear-policy and energy-security narratives (regulatory/policy visibility, reactor demand framing) add persistence to the upside bias.",
"probability_pct": 64,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"policy_nuclear",
"reactor_demand"
],
"contradicted_by": []
},
{
"belief_id": "B-UR-003",
"market": "uranium",
"claim": "Despite the bullish bias, the thesis is moderately fragile due to narrative dependence and mixed authority/echo characteristics in parts of the evidence set; short-horizon whipsaw risk remains elevated.",
"probability_pct": 56,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"policy_nuclear",
"data_quality_authority_mix"
],
"contradicted_by": []
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "uranium",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"conviction_score_0_100": 69,
"freshness_confidence": "medium",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": true,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 48,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-UR-001",
"B-UR-002",
"B-UR-003"
]
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "stale_context_overhang",
"severity": "medium",
"market": "uranium",
"details": "Several supporting themes are multi-week narratives; fresh prints exist, but persistence increases whipsaw susceptibility if policy tone shifts."
},
{
"flag": "authority_mix_echo_risk",
"severity": "medium",
"market": "uranium",
"details": "Evidence bundles show meaningful low-tier share and some singleton/echo characteristics; treat marginal updates as confirmatory only after repetition."
},
{
"flag": "narrative_whipsaw_risk",
"severity": "medium",
"market": "uranium",
"details": "Direction is policy/geopolitics-driven; reversal risk rises if a high-authority counter-signal appears within a short window."
},
{
"flag": "intra_day_signal_sparsity",
"severity": "low",
"market": "uranium",
"details": "Hourly signal is event-bucketed; absence of events can reduce confidence between catalyst prints."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "uranium",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"trigger_condition": "Maintain bullish bias while fresh supply-risk/policy-support signals continue printing (no high-authority opposing catalyst inside the next 2h)."
},
{
"market": "uranium",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"trigger_condition": "Escalate volatility watch if contradiction/negative policy headlines appear or if fresh evidence cadence drops materially over the next 6h."
},
{
"market": "uranium",
"confidence": "low",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"trigger_condition": "If a high-authority opposing signal arrives within 2h and contradicts supply-tightness or policy-support assumptions, treat as potential reversal onset."
},
{
"market": "uranium",
"confidence": "low",
"action": "hard_de_risk_watch",
"trigger_condition": "If late-breaking invalidation sentinel triggers (fresh opposing <=2h + contradiction spike), cap conviction and shift to defensive posture monitoring."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"uranium"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T16:40:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T17:40:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 15,
"fragility_score_0_100": 78,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T17:40:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T18:40:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 15,
"fragility_score_0_100": 78,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T18:40:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T19:40:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 15,
"fragility_score_0_100": 78,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T19:40:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T20:40:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 15,
"fragility_score_0_100": 78,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T20:40:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T21:40:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 15,
"fragility_score_0_100": 78,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T21:40:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T22:40:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 26,
"bullish_pressure_score": 26,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 26,
"velocity_score": 26,
"acceleration_score": 26,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"fragility_score_0_100": 50,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T22:40:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T23:40:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 20,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": -6,
"acceleration_score": -32,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 25,
"fragility_score_0_100": 71,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T23:40:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T00:40:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 15,
"bullish_pressure_score": 15,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 15,
"velocity_score": -5,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 23,
"fragility_score_0_100": 73,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T00:40:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T01:40:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 11,
"bullish_pressure_score": 11,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 11,
"velocity_score": -4,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 21,
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"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T01:40:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T02:40:00Z",
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"bullish_pressure_score": 8,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 8,
"velocity_score": -3,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 19,
"fragility_score_0_100": 76,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T02:40:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T03:40:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 6,
"bullish_pressure_score": 6,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 6,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 18,
"fragility_score_0_100": 76,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T03:40:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T04:40:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 4,
"bullish_pressure_score": 4,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 4,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 17,
"fragility_score_0_100": 77,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T04:40:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T05:40:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 17,
"bullish_pressure_score": 17,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 17,
"velocity_score": 13,
"acceleration_score": 15,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 36,
"fragility_score_0_100": 67,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T05:40:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T06:40:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 13,
"bullish_pressure_score": 13,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 13,
"velocity_score": -4,
"acceleration_score": -17,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 22,
"fragility_score_0_100": 74,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T06:40:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T07:40:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 10,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": -3,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T07:40:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T08:40:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 8,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 8,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 19,
"fragility_score_0_100": 76,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T08:40:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T09:40:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 6,
"bullish_pressure_score": 6,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 6,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 18,
"fragility_score_0_100": 76,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T09:40:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T10:40:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 5,
"bullish_pressure_score": 5,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 5,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 18,
"fragility_score_0_100": 77,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T10:40:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T11:40:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 4,
"bullish_pressure_score": 4,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 4,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 17,
"fragility_score_0_100": 77,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T11:40:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T12:40:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 19,
"bullish_pressure_score": 19,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 19,
"velocity_score": 15,
"acceleration_score": 16,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 37,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T12:40:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T13:40:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 14,
"bullish_pressure_score": 14,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 14,
"velocity_score": -5,
"acceleration_score": -20,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 22,
"fragility_score_0_100": 73,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T13:40:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T14:40:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 11,
"bullish_pressure_score": 11,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 11,
"velocity_score": -3,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 21,
"fragility_score_0_100": 74,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T14:40:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T15:40:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 48,
"bullish_pressure_score": 48,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 48,
"velocity_score": 37,
"acceleration_score": 40,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T15:40:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T16:40:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 85,
"bullish_pressure_score": 85,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 85,
"velocity_score": 37,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 81,
"fragility_score_0_100": 38,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 85,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 37,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 12,
"cross_domain_merges": 3,
"stale_suppression_count": 4,
"reversal_flags_count": 0,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"No trend_physics / trend_state_memory detected in inputs; used fallback recency + velocity_hint + temporal_profile weighting.",
"No explicit contradiction objects provided; contradiction_ratio set conservatively low but non-zero to reflect mixed authority/echo characteristics.",
"Prior state not provided; state_change emitted as new_bullish under unknown_prior."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}