Snapshot

  • subject_area: Uranium futures
  • target_market_code: uranium
  • ticker: null
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: stale_context_overhang
  • generated_at: 2026-03-18 16:40 UTC
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim (trimmed) prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
uranium B-UR-001 Uranium futures have an upside bias over the next 6h as fresh supply-chain/geopolitical supply-risk signals (Kazakhstan/Kazatomprom-linked narratives) remain the dominant incremental driver. 61 up accelerating 6h false 48
uranium B-UR-002 Over the next 24h, supportive nuclear-policy and energy-security narratives (regulatory/policy visibility, reactor demand framing) add persistence to the upside bias. 64 up stable 24h false 48
uranium B-UR-003 Despite the bullish bias, the thesis is moderately fragile due to narrative dependence and mixed authority/echo characteristics in parts of the evidence set; short-horizon whipsaw risk remains elevated. 56 mixed stable 24h false 48

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "snap_6B_uranium_20260318T164000Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-18T16:40:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Uranium futures",
 "market_code": "uranium"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 69,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 48,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "uranium",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "uranium"
 ],
 "regime_state": "tightening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-UR-001",
 "market": "uranium",
 "claim": "Uranium futures have an upside bias over the next 6h as fresh supply-chain/geopolitical supply-risk signals (Kazakhstan/Kazatomprom-linked narratives) remain the dominant incremental driver.",
 "probability_pct": 61,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "geopolitical_supply_risk",
 "supply_contracting",
 "inventory"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": []
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-UR-002",
 "market": "uranium",
 "claim": "Over the next 24h, supportive nuclear-policy and energy-security narratives (regulatory/policy visibility, reactor demand framing) add persistence to the upside bias.",
 "probability_pct": 64,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "policy_nuclear",
 "reactor_demand"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": []
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-UR-003",
 "market": "uranium",
 "claim": "Despite the bullish bias, the thesis is moderately fragile due to narrative dependence and mixed authority/echo characteristics in parts of the evidence set; short-horizon whipsaw risk remains elevated.",
 "probability_pct": 56,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "policy_nuclear",
 "data_quality_authority_mix"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": []
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "uranium",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "new_bullish",
 "conviction_score_0_100": 69,
 "freshness_confidence": "medium",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": true,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 48,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-UR-001",
 "B-UR-002",
 "B-UR-003"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag": "stale_context_overhang",
 "severity": "medium",
 "market": "uranium",
 "details": "Several supporting themes are multi-week narratives; fresh prints exist, but persistence increases whipsaw susceptibility if policy tone shifts."
 },
 {
 "flag": "authority_mix_echo_risk",
 "severity": "medium",
 "market": "uranium",
 "details": "Evidence bundles show meaningful low-tier share and some singleton/echo characteristics; treat marginal updates as confirmatory only after repetition."
 },
 {
 "flag": "narrative_whipsaw_risk",
 "severity": "medium",
 "market": "uranium",
 "details": "Direction is policy/geopolitics-driven; reversal risk rises if a high-authority counter-signal appears within a short window."
 },
 {
 "flag": "intra_day_signal_sparsity",
 "severity": "low",
 "market": "uranium",
 "details": "Hourly signal is event-bucketed; absence of events can reduce confidence between catalyst prints."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "uranium",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "trigger_condition": "Maintain bullish bias while fresh supply-risk/policy-support signals continue printing (no high-authority opposing catalyst inside the next 2h)."
 },
 {
 "market": "uranium",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "Escalate volatility watch if contradiction/negative policy headlines appear or if fresh evidence cadence drops materially over the next 6h."
 },
 {
 "market": "uranium",
 "confidence": "low",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "If a high-authority opposing signal arrives within 2h and contradicts supply-tightness or policy-support assumptions, treat as potential reversal onset."
 },
 {
 "market": "uranium",
 "confidence": "low",
 "action": "hard_de_risk_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "If late-breaking invalidation sentinel triggers (fresh opposing <=2h + contradiction spike), cap conviction and shift to defensive posture monitoring."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "uranium"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T16:40:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T17:40:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 15,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 78,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T17:40:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T18:40:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 15,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 78,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T18:40:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T19:40:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
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 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 15,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 78,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T19:40:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T20:40:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 15,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 78,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T20:40:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T21:40:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 15,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 78,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T21:40:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T22:40:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 26,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 26,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 26,
 "velocity_score": 26,
 "acceleration_score": 26,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 64,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 50,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T22:40:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T23:40:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 20,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 20,
 "velocity_score": -6,
 "acceleration_score": -32,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 25,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 71,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T23:40:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T00:40:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 15,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 15,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 15,
 "velocity_score": -5,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 23,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 73,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T00:40:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T01:40:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 11,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 11,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 11,
 "velocity_score": -4,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 21,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 74,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T01:40:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T02:40:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 8,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 8,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 8,
 "velocity_score": -3,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 19,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 76,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T02:40:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T03:40:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 6,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 6,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 6,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 18,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 76,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T03:40:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T04:40:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 4,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 4,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 4,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 17,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 77,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T04:40:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T05:40:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 17,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 17,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 17,
 "velocity_score": 13,
 "acceleration_score": 15,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 36,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 67,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T05:40:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T06:40:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 13,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 13,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 13,
 "velocity_score": -4,
 "acceleration_score": -17,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 22,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 74,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T06:40:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T07:40:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 10,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 10,
 "velocity_score": -3,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 20,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 75,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T07:40:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T08:40:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 8,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 8,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 8,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 19,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 76,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T08:40:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T09:40:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 6,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 6,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 6,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 18,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 76,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T09:40:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T10:40:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 5,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 5,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 5,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 18,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 77,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T10:40:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T11:40:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 4,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 4,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 4,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 17,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 77,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T11:40:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T12:40:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 19,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 19,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 19,
 "velocity_score": 15,
 "acceleration_score": 16,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 37,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T12:40:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T13:40:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 14,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 14,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 14,
 "velocity_score": -5,
 "acceleration_score": -20,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 22,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 73,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T13:40:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T14:40:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 11,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 11,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 11,
 "velocity_score": -3,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 21,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 74,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T14:40:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T15:40:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 48,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 48,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 48,
 "velocity_score": 37,
 "acceleration_score": 40,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 63,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T15:40:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T16:40:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 85,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 85,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 85,
 "velocity_score": 37,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 81,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 38,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 85,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 37,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 12,
 "cross_domain_merges": 3,
 "stale_suppression_count": 4,
 "reversal_flags_count": 0,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "No trend_physics / trend_state_memory detected in inputs; used fallback recency + velocity_hint + temporal_profile weighting.",
 "No explicit contradiction objects provided; contradiction_ratio set conservatively low but non-zero to reflect mixed authority/echo characteristics.",
 "Prior state not provided; state_change emitted as new_bullish under unknown_prior."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}