Snapshot
- subject_area: Uranium futures
- target_market_code: uranium
- ticker: null
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 2
- top_risk_flag: RF-UR-LOW_AUTHORITY_SKEW
- generated_at: 2026-03-18T12:00:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| uranium | B-UR-01 | Near-term uranium price bias is upward as geopolitical/supply-chain risk narratives and supply contracting concerns remain active (Kazatomprom/Cameco-linked supply sensitivity) with fresh reinforcement in the last 24h. | 58 | up | accelerating | 6h | false | 62 |
| uranium | B-UR-02 | Over the next 24h, policy and nuclear build/SMR development narratives stay supportive for uranium demand expectations, keeping sentiment skewed bullish despite quality/echo risks in parts of the source mix. | 63 | up | stable | 24h | false | 62 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "CIS-uranium-20260318T120000Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-18T12:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Uranium futures",
"market_code": "uranium"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "uranium",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"uranium"
],
"regime_state": "tightening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-UR-01",
"market": "uranium",
"claim": "Near-term uranium price bias is upward as geopolitical/supply-chain risk narratives and supply contracting concerns remain active (Kazatomprom/Cameco-linked supply sensitivity) with fresh reinforcement in the last 24h.",
"probability_pct": 58,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"geopolitical_supply_risk",
"supply_contracting"
],
"contradicted_by": []
},
{
"belief_id": "B-UR-02",
"market": "uranium",
"claim": "Over the next 24h, policy and nuclear build/SMR development narratives stay supportive for uranium demand expectations, keeping sentiment skewed bullish despite quality/echo risks in parts of the source mix.",
"probability_pct": 63,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"policy_nuclear",
"reactor_demand"
],
"contradicted_by": []
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "uranium",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "low",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"freshness_confidence": "medium",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": true,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-UR-01",
"B-UR-02"
]
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF-UR-LOW_AUTHORITY_SKEW",
"market": "uranium",
"severity": "medium",
"label": "low_authority_skew",
"details": "Multiple admitted narratives show a high low-authority share / echo-risk pockets (VIP single-source items), reducing confidence despite fresh timestamps."
},
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF-UR-POLICY_HEADLINE_VOL",
"market": "uranium",
"severity": "medium",
"label": "policy_headline_volatility",
"details": "Policy/regulatory-driven uranium narratives can reprice quickly on single announcements; treat momentum as more fragile than commodity-supply-only regimes."
},
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF-UR-DATA_CONTRADICTIONS_SPARSE",
"market": "uranium",
"severity": "low",
"label": "contradiction_channel_sparse",
"details": "Explicit contradiction objects were not provided (contradictions[] empty); reversal risk may be understated if opposing signals exist outside this batch."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "uranium",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Maintain bullish bias while 1h directional_score_signed stays >= +20 and no late-breaking opposing high-authority signal appears within 2h."
},
{
"market": "uranium",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Escalate volatility monitoring if policy/regulatory narratives spike AND timeseries velocity_score exceeds +6 or drops below -6 in an hour."
},
{
"market": "uranium",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "Upgrade reversal watch if contradiction_ratio rises above 0.25 with fresh (<=24h) opposing-direction evidence."
},
{
"market": "uranium",
"action": "stay_flat",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "Consider neutral posture label if directional_score_signed falls inside [-20,+20] for 3 consecutive 1h buckets."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"uranium"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 61.0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 39.0,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 61.0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 39.0,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 23,
"bullish_pressure_score": 61.5,
"bearish_pressure_score": 38.5,
"net_sentiment_score": 23,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 53,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 23,
"bullish_pressure_score": 61.5,
"bearish_pressure_score": 38.5,
"net_sentiment_score": 23,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 53,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 62.0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 38.0,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 62.0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 38.0,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 25,
"bullish_pressure_score": 62.5,
"bearish_pressure_score": 37.5,
"net_sentiment_score": 25,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 25,
"bullish_pressure_score": 62.5,
"bearish_pressure_score": 37.5,
"net_sentiment_score": 25,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 26,
"bullish_pressure_score": 63.0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 37.0,
"net_sentiment_score": 26,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 26,
"bullish_pressure_score": 63.0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 37.0,
"net_sentiment_score": 26,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 26,
"bullish_pressure_score": 63.0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 37.0,
"net_sentiment_score": 26,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 27,
"bullish_pressure_score": 63.5,
"bearish_pressure_score": 36.5,
"net_sentiment_score": 27,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 57,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 27,
"bullish_pressure_score": 63.5,
"bearish_pressure_score": 36.5,
"net_sentiment_score": 27,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 57,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 64.0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 36.0,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 64.0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 36.0,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 29,
"bullish_pressure_score": 64.5,
"bearish_pressure_score": 35.5,
"net_sentiment_score": 29,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 59,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 65.0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 35.0,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 32,
"bullish_pressure_score": 66.0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 34.0,
"net_sentiment_score": 32,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 32,
"bullish_pressure_score": 66.0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 34.0,
"net_sentiment_score": 32,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 33,
"bullish_pressure_score": 66.5,
"bearish_pressure_score": 33.5,
"net_sentiment_score": 33,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 34,
"bullish_pressure_score": 67.0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 33.0,
"net_sentiment_score": 34,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 36,
"bullish_pressure_score": 68.0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 32.0,
"net_sentiment_score": 36,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 38,
"bullish_pressure_score": 69.0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 31.0,
"net_sentiment_score": 38,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 67,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 46,
"bullish_pressure_score": 73.0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 27.0,
"net_sentiment_score": 46,
"velocity_score": 8,
"acceleration_score": 6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 70,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 46,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 22,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 8,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 12,
"cross_domain_merges": 3,
"stale_suppression_count": 5,
"reversal_flags_count": 0,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Scope locked to single market: uranium (explicit target_market_code).",
"No explicit contradictions[] provided; contradiction_ratio held low and stable.",
"Several admitted narratives are policy/regulatory and/or supply-risk linked; treated as bullish for uranium via tightening supply / supportive demand expectations.",
"VIP/risk anomaly items are single-source; used only as fragility inputs, not as primary directional drivers."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}