Snapshot

  • subject_area: Uranium futures
  • target_market_code: uranium
  • ticker: null
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 2
  • top_risk_flag: authority_mix_skew (medium)
  • generated_at: 2026-03-18T07:10:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
uranium B-UR-6H-1 Uranium futures have an upward bias over the next 6 hours, supported by fresh policy/regulatory tailwinds and supply-chain/geopolitical risk emphasis in recent signals. 64 up accelerating 6h false 44
uranium B-UR-24H-1 Uranium futures are more likely than not to remain supported/rise over the next 24 hours as supply-risk narratives and nuclear buildout policy signals stay active, with limited fresh counter-signals observed. 67 up accelerating 24h false 44

Data Dump (Machine Use) { "workflow_6B_CIS_output": { "snapshot_id": "6B-uranium-20260318T071000Z", "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-18T07:10:00Z", "primary_asset_focus": { "name": "Uranium futures", "market_code": "uranium" }, "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish", "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 78, "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 44, "commodity_registry": [ "crude_oil", "gold", "natural_gas", "copper", "silver", "wheat", "corn", "uranium", "lithium", "coffee" ], "target_market_code": "uranium", "target_resolution_source": "explicit", "scope_mode": "single_market", "analyzed_markets": [ "uranium" ], "regime_state": "tightening", "beliefs": [ { "belief_id": "B-UR-6H-1", "market": "uranium", "claim": "Uranium futures have an upward bias over the next 6 hours, supported by fresh policy/regulatory tailwinds and supply-chain/geopolitical risk emphasis in recent signals.", "probability_pct": 64, "direction": "up", "velocity": "accelerating", "horizon": "6h", "drivers": [ "policy_nuclear (EU/US nuclear policy signals)", "regulatory (NRC-related process/modernisation narrative)", "geopolitical_supply_risk (Russia/Niger/Kazakhstan-related supply-chain sensitivity)", "supply_contracting (Orano/Kazatomprom supply chain focus)" ], "contradicted_by": [] }, { "belief_id": "B-UR-24H-1", "market": "uranium", "claim": "Uranium futures are more likely than not to remain supported/rise over the next 24 hours as supply-risk narratives and nuclear buildout policy signals stay active, with limited fresh counter-signals observed.", "probability_pct": 67, "direction": "up", "velocity": "accelerating", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "supply_contracting (producer/supply-chain narratives)", "geopolitical_supply_risk (disruption/reshoring emphasis)", "reactor_demand (nuclear buildout policy momentum)", "inventory (implicit tightness framing via supply-risk emphasis)" ], "contradicted_by": [] } ], "market_state_table": [ { "market": "uranium", "directional_state": "bullish", "momentum_state": "strengthening", "reversal_risk": "low", "state_change": "new_bullish", "conviction_score_0_100": 78, "freshness_confidence": "high", "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional", "stale_suppression_applied": false, "thesis_kill_switch": false, "late_breaking_alert": false, "fragility_score_0_100": 44, "supporting_belief_ids": [ "B-UR-6H-1", "B-UR-24H-1" ] } ], "risk_flags": [ { "flag": "authority_mix_skew", "severity": "medium", "details": "A meaningful share of supporting narratives includes lower-tier or single-source items (VIP outliers), increasing headline whipsaw risk even when direction is bullish." }, { "flag": "policy_headline_whipsaw", "severity": "medium", "details": "Policy/regulatory-driven uranium narratives can re-price quickly on new statements/clarifications; monitor for abrupt reversals despite current bullish momentum." }, { "flag": "data_sparsity_in_intrahour", "severity": "low", "details": "Within the last 24h, evidence clusters in a few hours; between clusters, confidence is lower and fragility higher." } ], "candidate_actions": [ { "action": "watch_long_bias", "market": "uranium", "confidence": "high", "trigger_condition": "Maintain bullish watch if fresh policy/supply-risk signals continue printing (>=1 high-authority or multi-source item) in the next 6h." }, { "action": "volatility_watch", "market": "uranium", "confidence": "medium", "trigger_condition": "Elevate volatility watch if a high-authority opposing signal appears (e.g., de-risking language, supply normalization) within a 2h window." }, { "action": "reversal_watch", "market": "uranium", "confidence": "low", "trigger_condition": "Upgrade to reversal watch only if contradiction rises materially (new opposing cluster + deterioration in net sentiment across 2-3 consecutive hourly buckets)." } ], "paper_trade_signal_pack": { "bullish_markets": [ "uranium" ], "bearish_markets": [], "neutral_mixed_markets": [], "high_reversal_risk_markets": [] }, "signal_timeseries": { "resolution": "1h", "lookback_hours": 24, "bucket_timezone": "UTC", "buckets": [ { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T07:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T08:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 28, "bullish_pressure_score": 64, "bearish_pressure_score": 36, "net_sentiment_score": 28, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.13, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 53, "fragility_score_0_100": 60, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T08:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T09:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 26, "bullish_pressure_score": 63, "bearish_pressure_score": 37, "net_sentiment_score": 26, "velocity_score": -2, "acceleration_score": -2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.13, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 52, "fragility_score_0_100": 61, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T09:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T10:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 27, "bullish_pressure_score": 64, "bearish_pressure_score": 36, "net_sentiment_score": 27, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 3, "contradiction_ratio": 0.13, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 52, "fragility_score_0_100": 61, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T10:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T11:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 25, "bullish_pressure_score": 63, "bearish_pressure_score": 37, "net_sentiment_score": 25, "velocity_score": -2, "acceleration_score": -3, "contradiction_ratio": 0.14, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 51, "fragility_score_0_100": 62, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T11:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T12:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 24, "bullish_pressure_score": 62, "bearish_pressure_score": 38, "net_sentiment_score": 24, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.14, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 50, "fragility_score_0_100": 63, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T12:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T13:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 50, "bullish_pressure_score": 75, "bearish_pressure_score": 25, "net_sentiment_score": 50, "velocity_score": 26, "acceleration_score": 27, "contradiction_ratio": 0.17, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 68, "fragility_score_0_100": 50, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T13:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T14:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 34, "bullish_pressure_score": 67, "bearish_pressure_score": 33, "net_sentiment_score": 34, "velocity_score": -16, "acceleration_score": -42, "contradiction_ratio": 0.15, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 56, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T14:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T15:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 30, "bullish_pressure_score": 65, "bearish_pressure_score": 35, "net_sentiment_score": 30, "velocity_score": -4, "acceleration_score": 12, "contradiction_ratio": 0.14, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 54, "fragility_score_0_100": 59, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T15:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T16:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 29, "bullish_pressure_score": 65, "bearish_pressure_score": 35, "net_sentiment_score": 29, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": 3, "contradiction_ratio": 0.14, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 53, "fragility_score_0_100": 60, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T16:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T17:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 27, "bullish_pressure_score": 64, "bearish_pressure_score": 36, "net_sentiment_score": 27, "velocity_score": -2, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.14, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 52, "fragility_score_0_100": 60, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T17:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T18:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 26, "bullish_pressure_score": 63, "bearish_pressure_score": 37, "net_sentiment_score": 26, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.14, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 51, "fragility_score_0_100": 61, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T18:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T19:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 25, "bullish_pressure_score": 63, "bearish_pressure_score": 37, "net_sentiment_score": 25, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.14, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 50, "fragility_score_0_100": 62, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T19:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T20:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 24, "bullish_pressure_score": 62, "bearish_pressure_score": 38, "net_sentiment_score": 24, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.15, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 49, "fragility_score_0_100": 63, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T20:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T21:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 25, "bullish_pressure_score": 63, "bearish_pressure_score": 37, "net_sentiment_score": 25, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.14, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 50, "fragility_score_0_100": 62, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T21:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T22:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 52, "bullish_pressure_score": 76, "bearish_pressure_score": 24, "net_sentiment_score": 52, "velocity_score": 27, "acceleration_score": 26, "contradiction_ratio": 0.16, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 70, "fragility_score_0_100": 49, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T22:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T23:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 36, "bullish_pressure_score": 68, "bearish_pressure_score": 32, "net_sentiment_score": 36, "velocity_score": -16, "acceleration_score": -43, "contradiction_ratio": 0.14, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 57, "fragility_score_0_100": 57, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T23:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T00:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 33, "bullish_pressure_score": 67, "bearish_pressure_score": 33, "net_sentiment_score": 33, "velocity_score": -3, "acceleration_score": 13, "contradiction_ratio": 0.14, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 55, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T00:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T01:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 31, "bullish_pressure_score": 66, "bearish_pressure_score": 34, "net_sentiment_score": 31, "velocity_score": -2, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.14, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 54, "fragility_score_0_100": 59, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T01:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T02:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 30, "bullish_pressure_score": 65, "bearish_pressure_score": 35, "net_sentiment_score": 30, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.14, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 53, "fragility_score_0_100": 60, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T02:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T03:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 29, "bullish_pressure_score": 65, "bearish_pressure_score": 35, "net_sentiment_score": 29, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.14, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 52, "fragility_score_0_100": 60, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T03:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T04:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 30, "bullish_pressure_score": 65, "bearish_pressure_score": 35, "net_sentiment_score": 30, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.14, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 53, "fragility_score_0_100": 59, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T04:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T05:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 58, "bullish_pressure_score": 79, "bearish_pressure_score": 21, "net_sentiment_score": 58, "velocity_score": 28, "acceleration_score": 27, "contradiction_ratio": 0.14, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 74, "fragility_score_0_100": 46, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T05:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T06:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 62, "bullish_pressure_score": 81, "bearish_pressure_score": 19, "net_sentiment_score": 62, "velocity_score": 4, "acceleration_score": -24, "contradiction_ratio": 0.13, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 76, "fragility_score_0_100": 45, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T06:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T07:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 70, "bullish_pressure_score": 85, "bearish_pressure_score": 15, "net_sentiment_score": 70, "velocity_score": 8, "acceleration_score": 4, "contradiction_ratio": 0.12, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 82, "fragility_score_0_100": 42, "dominant_state": "bullish" } ] }, "recent_half_hour_overlay": { "enabled": false, "resolution": "30m", "lookback_hours": 6, "buckets": [] }, "summary": { "timeseries_peak_bullish": 70, "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0, "latest_inflection_direction": "up", "latest_inflection_strength": 8, "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish" } }, "diagnostics": { "trends_seen": 12, "trends_admitted": 12, "cross_domain_merges": 3, "stale_suppression_count": 0, "reversal_flags_count": 0, "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0, "kill_switch_markets_count": 0, "timeseries_bucket_count": 24, "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0, "target_market_custom": false, "target_market_unresolved": false, "input_gate_degraded": false, "notes": [ "Target market resolved explicitly from flight_plan.target_market_code=uranium.", "No explicit contradiction objects supplied; reversal assessment driven by recency/cluster shape rather than opposing evidence.", "VIP outliers are treated as lower-authority/low-diversity context; they contribute more to fragility than to conviction." ] }, "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B" }