• subject_area: Silver futures
  • target_market_code: silver
  • ticker: null
  • regime_state: unstable
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: recency_flip_risk
  • generated_at: 2026-03-18T18:30:47Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0
market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
silver B-SI-01 Silver futures bias higher into the next 24h as precious-metals positioning and silver-specific demand narratives remain supportive. 60 up accelerating 24h false 60
silver B-SI-02 Over the next 6h, silver is likely to trade mixed/volatile (two-way risk) because macro-policy framing and industrial-demand narratives are not perfectly aligned. 54 mixed stable 6h false 60
silver B-SI-03 Downside risk persists over 24h if renewable/solar supply-chain disruption narratives translate into near-term industrial-demand softness for silver or broader risk-off USD strength dominates. 40 down fading 24h false 60

{ "workflow_6B_CIS_output": { "snapshot_id": "CIS6B_silver_2026-03-18T18:30:47Z", "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-18T18:30:47Z", "primary_asset_focus": { "name": "Silver futures", "market_code": "silver" }, "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish", "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 62, "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 60, "commodity_registry": [ "crude_oil", "gold", "natural_gas", "copper", "silver", "wheat", "corn", "uranium", "lithium", "coffee" ], "target_market_code": "silver", "target_resolution_source": "explicit", "scope_mode": "single_market", "analyzed_markets": [ "silver" ], "regime_state": "unstable", "beliefs": [ { "belief_id": "B-SI-01", "market": "silver", "claim": "Silver futures bias higher into the next 24h as precious-metals positioning and silver-specific demand narratives remain supportive.", "probability_pct": 60, "direction": "up", "velocity": "accelerating", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "T-014 (Metals Focus: growth in silver market)", "T-003 (Gold: investor demand for safe-haven assets; spillover into silver)", "T-012 (The Silver Institute: rates expectations / monetary policy sensitivity for precious metals)" ], "contradicted_by": [ "B-SI-03" ] }, { "belief_id": "B-SI-02", "market": "silver", "claim": "Over the next 6h, silver is likely to trade mixed/volatile (two-way risk) because macro-policy framing and industrial-demand narratives are not perfectly aligned.", "probability_pct": 54, "direction": "mixed", "velocity": "stable", "horizon": "6h", "drivers": [ "T-012 (policy sensitivity highlighted)", "T-008 (geopolitical-risk framing can boost safe-haven bid but also supports USD-risk channels)" ], "contradicted_by": [ "B-SI-01" ] }, { "belief_id": "B-SI-03", "market": "silver", "claim": "Downside risk persists over 24h if renewable/solar supply-chain disruption narratives translate into near-term industrial-demand softness for silver or broader risk-off USD strength dominates.", "probability_pct": 40, "direction": "down", "velocity": "fading", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "T-028 (renewable-energy supply-chain disruption; potential demand drag for PV-related silver use)" ], "contradicted_by": [ "B-SI-01" ] } ], "market_state_table": [ { "market": "silver", "directional_state": "bullish", "momentum_state": "strengthening", "reversal_risk": "medium", "state_change": "unchanged", "conviction_score_0_100": 62, "freshness_confidence": "medium", "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional", "stale_suppression_applied": false, "thesis_kill_switch": false, "late_breaking_alert": false, "fragility_score_0_100": 60, "supporting_belief_ids": [ "B-SI-01", "B-SI-02" ] } ], "risk_flags": [ { "flag": "recency_flip_risk", "market": "silver", "severity": "medium", "detail": "Last-24h signal path shows a bearish-to-bullish swing (industrial-demand disruption framing earlier, then silver-specific growth + precious-metals support later)." }, { "flag": "narrative_whipsaw", "market": "silver", "severity": "medium", "detail": "Industrial-demand (renewables/PV) vs safe-haven/precious-metals narratives are not perfectly consistent, increasing short-horizon churn risk." }, { "flag": "data_sparsity_direct_silver", "market": "silver", "severity": "medium", "detail": "A meaningful share of macro context items are present but not explicitly silver-tagged; direct silver evidence is concentrated in fewer trend clusters." } ], "candidate_actions": [ { "market": "silver", "confidence": "medium", "label": "watch_long_bias", "trigger_condition": "Additional fresh (<=6h) silver-specific confirmation (flows/demand) arrives without a competing fresh macro/US-dollar shock." }, { "market": "silver", "confidence": "medium", "label": "reversal_watch", "trigger_condition": "A fresh opposing macro impulse appears (hawkish rates/strong USD framing) or an industrial-demand shock escalates (PV/renewables disruption broadens)." }, { "market": "silver", "confidence": "low", "label": "volatility_watch", "trigger_condition": "Contradiction ratio rises further alongside rapid signal churn inside a 2\u20136h window." }, { "market": "silver", "confidence": "low", "label": "stay_flat", "trigger_condition": "No new corroboration for the bullish cluster and contradiction remains elevated (mixed signals persist)." } ], "paper_trade_signal_pack": { "bullish_markets": [ "silver" ], "bearish_markets": [], "neutral_mixed_markets": [], "high_reversal_risk_markets": [] }, "signal_timeseries": { "resolution": "1h", "lookback_hours": 24, "bucket_timezone": "UTC", "buckets": [ { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T18:30:47Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T19:30:47Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.1, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 20, "fragility_score_0_100": 85, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T19:30:47Z", 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"bullish_pressure_score": 5, "bearish_pressure_score": 20, "net_sentiment_score": -15, "velocity_score": 7, "acceleration_score": 29, "contradiction_ratio": 0.26, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 32, "fragility_score_0_100": 80, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T12:30:47Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T13:30:47Z", "directional_score_signed": -10, "bullish_pressure_score": 6, "bearish_pressure_score": 16, "net_sentiment_score": -10, "velocity_score": 5, "acceleration_score": -2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.24, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 28, "fragility_score_0_100": 82, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T13:30:47Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T14:30:47Z", "directional_score_signed": 2, "bullish_pressure_score": 15, "bearish_pressure_score": 13, "net_sentiment_score": 2, "velocity_score": 12, "acceleration_score": 7, "contradiction_ratio": 0.32, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 42, "fragility_score_0_100": 70, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T14:30:47Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T15:30:47Z", "directional_score_signed": 6, "bullish_pressure_score": 18, "bearish_pressure_score": 12, "net_sentiment_score": 6, "velocity_score": 4, "acceleration_score": -8, "contradiction_ratio": 0.3, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 44, "fragility_score_0_100": 68, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T15:30:47Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T16:30:47Z", "directional_score_signed": 30, "bullish_pressure_score": 45, "bearish_pressure_score": 15, "net_sentiment_score": 30, "velocity_score": 24, "acceleration_score": 20, "contradiction_ratio": 0.33, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 66, "fragility_score_0_100": 54, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T16:30:47Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T17:30:47Z", "directional_score_signed": 26, "bullish_pressure_score": 38, "bearish_pressure_score": 12, "net_sentiment_score": 26, "velocity_score": -4, "acceleration_score": -28, "contradiction_ratio": 0.3, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 60, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T17:30:47Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T18:30:47Z", "directional_score_signed": 28, "bullish_pressure_score": 40, "bearish_pressure_score": 12, "net_sentiment_score": 28, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 6, "contradiction_ratio": 0.31, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 62, "fragility_score_0_100": 60, "dominant_state": "bullish" } ] }, "recent_half_hour_overlay": { "enabled": false, "resolution": "30m", "lookback_hours": 6, "buckets": [] }, "summary": { "timeseries_peak_bullish": 30, "timeseries_peak_bearish": -22, "latest_inflection_direction": "up", "latest_inflection_strength": 24, "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish" } }, "diagnostics": { "trends_seen": 12, "trends_admitted": 5, "cross_domain_merges": 2, "stale_suppression_count": 0, "reversal_flags_count": 1, "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0, "kill_switch_markets_count": 0, "timeseries_bucket_count": 24, "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0, "target_market_custom": false, "target_market_unresolved": false, "input_gate_degraded": false, "notes": [ "Target resolved explicitly as 'silver' from flight_plan.target_market_code.", "Several macro-only trends were seen but not admitted due to weak/indirect commodity alias mapping; they contribute indirectly via silver-tagged policy/flows trends.", "No explicit contradiction objects provided; contradiction management inferred from mixed driver composition and intraday swing in directional score.", "Prior state not provided (no trend_state_memory / prior market_state_table available); state_change defaulted to 'unchanged' under unknown_prior." ] }, "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B" }