- subject_area: Silver futures
- target_market_code: silver
- ticker: silver
- regime_state: unstable
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: macro_contradiction_pressure
- generated_at: 2026-03-18T16:19:46Z
- sentiment_word: Unstable
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
| market |
belief_id |
claim |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| silver |
B-SI-24H-RANGE-DOWNSKEW-001 |
Over the next 24h, silver futures sentiment is rangebound with a mild downside skew as rate-expectations / USD-strength narratives compete with precious-metals flow support. |
55 |
mixed |
accelerating |
24h |
false |
68 |
| silver |
B-SI-6H-FLOW-BID-002 |
Over the next 6h, safe-haven / precious-metals flow framing can intermittently support silver futures, but follow-through is fragile. |
52 |
up |
fading |
6h |
false |
68 |
| silver |
B-SI-6H-RATES-HEADWIND-003 |
In the next 6h, rate-expectations messaging remains a headwind that can cap rallies in silver futures. |
58 |
down |
stable |
6h |
false |
68 |
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-20260318T161946Z-silver",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-18T16:19:46Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Silver futures",
"market_code": "silver"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Unstable",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "silver",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"silver"
],
"regime_state": "unstable",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-SI-24H-RANGE-DOWNSKEW-001",
"market": "silver",
"claim": "Over the next 24h, silver futures sentiment is rangebound with a mild downside skew as rate-expectations / USD-strength narratives compete with precious-metals flow support.",
"probability_pct": 55,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"real_rates",
"usd_strength",
"precious_metals_flows",
"macro_policy_expectations"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-SI-6H-FLOW-BID-002"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-SI-6H-FLOW-BID-002",
"market": "silver",
"claim": "Over the next 6h, safe-haven / precious-metals flow framing can intermittently support silver futures, but follow-through is fragile.",
"probability_pct": 52,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"precious_metals_flows",
"geopolitical_risk_framing"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-SI-6H-RATES-HEADWIND-003"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-SI-6H-RATES-HEADWIND-003",
"market": "silver",
"claim": "In the next 6h, rate-expectations messaging remains a headwind that can cap rallies in silver futures.",
"probability_pct": 58,
"direction": "down",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"real_rates",
"usd_strength",
"macro_policy_expectations"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-SI-6H-FLOW-BID-002"
]
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "silver",
"directional_state": "neutral_mixed",
"momentum_state": "weakening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "unchanged",
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"freshness_confidence": "medium",
"catalyst_type": "reversal_warning",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-SI-24H-RANGE-DOWNSKEW-001",
"B-SI-6H-FLOW-BID-002",
"B-SI-6H-RATES-HEADWIND-003"
]
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF-SI-CONTRADICTION-MACRO-001",
"market": "silver",
"label": "macro_contradiction_pressure",
"severity": "medium",
"rationale": "Silver-specific growth/flow narratives coexist with fresh rate-expectations messaging; net signal sits near neutral with rising fragility."
},
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF-SI-DATA-DOMAIN-MIX-002",
"market": "silver",
"label": "domain_mismatch_overhang",
"severity": "medium",
"rationale": "A meaningful share of admitted evidence is macro-policy themed (USD/real rates) rather than direct silver market microstructure; directionality is therefore less stable."
},
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF-SI-FUTURE-TIMESTAMP-INPUT-003",
"market": "silver",
"label": "input_timestamp_inconsistency",
"severity": "low",
"rationale": "One risk-anomaly item carries a timestamp later than the workflow0 snapshot time; it was not used for current-state synthesis."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "silver",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "stay_flat until directional_score_signed exits the neutral band (<= -20 or >= +20) with >=2 fresh-evidence prints in the last 6h."
},
{
"market": "silver",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "volatility_watch if contradiction_ratio sustains >=0.60 while fresh_evidence_count rises (macro + metals-flow headlines co-occur)."
},
{
"market": "silver",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "reversal_watch if net sentiment flips from negative drift to positive (directional_score_signed crosses from <0 to >0) within 2-4 hours."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [
"silver"
],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 40,
"bearish_pressure_score": 40,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.45,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 38,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 2,
"bullish_pressure_score": 42,
"bearish_pressure_score": 40,
"net_sentiment_score": 2,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.45,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 38,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 1,
"bullish_pressure_score": 41,
"bearish_pressure_score": 40,
"net_sentiment_score": 1,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.46,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 38,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 40,
"bearish_pressure_score": 40,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.47,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 38,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -1,
"bullish_pressure_score": 40,
"bearish_pressure_score": 41,
"net_sentiment_score": -1,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.48,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 39,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -2,
"bullish_pressure_score": 40,
"bearish_pressure_score": 42,
"net_sentiment_score": -2,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.49,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 40,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -3,
"bullish_pressure_score": 40,
"bearish_pressure_score": 43,
"net_sentiment_score": -3,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.5,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 40,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -5,
"bullish_pressure_score": 39,
"bearish_pressure_score": 44,
"net_sentiment_score": -5,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.52,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 41,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 38,
"bearish_pressure_score": 46,
"net_sentiment_score": -8,
"velocity_score": -3,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.54,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 42,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 37,
"bearish_pressure_score": 47,
"net_sentiment_score": -10,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.55,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 43,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 36,
"bearish_pressure_score": 48,
"net_sentiment_score": -12,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.56,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -15,
"bullish_pressure_score": 35,
"bearish_pressure_score": 50,
"net_sentiment_score": -15,
"velocity_score": -3,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.58,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 67,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 34,
"bearish_pressure_score": 52,
"net_sentiment_score": -18,
"velocity_score": -3,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.6,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -16,
"bullish_pressure_score": 35,
"bearish_pressure_score": 51,
"net_sentiment_score": -16,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 5,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.6,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -14,
"bullish_pressure_score": 36,
"bearish_pressure_score": 50,
"net_sentiment_score": -14,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.59,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 67,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -13,
"bullish_pressure_score": 36,
"bearish_pressure_score": 49,
"net_sentiment_score": -13,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.59,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 67,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 36,
"bearish_pressure_score": 48,
"net_sentiment_score": -12,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.6,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 67,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -11,
"bullish_pressure_score": 37,
"bearish_pressure_score": 48,
"net_sentiment_score": -11,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.6,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 67,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 37,
"bearish_pressure_score": 47,
"net_sentiment_score": -10,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.61,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 43,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -9,
"bullish_pressure_score": 37,
"bearish_pressure_score": 46,
"net_sentiment_score": -9,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.62,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 43,
"fragility_score_0_100": 69,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 36,
"bearish_pressure_score": 46,
"net_sentiment_score": -10,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.62,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 43,
"fragility_score_0_100": 69,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 36,
"bearish_pressure_score": 48,
"net_sentiment_score": -12,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.63,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 69,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -14,
"bullish_pressure_score": 35,
"bearish_pressure_score": 49,
"net_sentiment_score": -14,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.63,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -15,
"bullish_pressure_score": 35,
"bearish_pressure_score": 50,
"net_sentiment_score": -15,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.62,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 2,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": -18,
"latest_inflection_direction": "down",
"latest_inflection_strength": 15,
"signal_regime": "mixed_flat"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 7,
"cross_domain_merges": 2,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Scope locked to single market: silver.",
"Admitted signals emphasise macro-policy (rates/USD) + precious-metals flow framing; direct mine-supply/industrial-demand micro signals are present but less time-concentrated.",
"Risk-anomaly RA-001 timestamp is later than workflow0 snapshot timestamp; excluded from state synthesis for this run."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}