• subject_area: Silver futures
  • target_market_code: silver
  • ticker: silver
  • regime_state: unstable
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: macro_contradiction_pressure
  • generated_at: 2026-03-18T16:19:46Z
  • sentiment_word: Unstable
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0
market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
silver B-SI-24H-RANGE-DOWNSKEW-001 Over the next 24h, silver futures sentiment is rangebound with a mild downside skew as rate-expectations / USD-strength narratives compete with precious-metals flow support. 55 mixed accelerating 24h false 68
silver B-SI-6H-FLOW-BID-002 Over the next 6h, safe-haven / precious-metals flow framing can intermittently support silver futures, but follow-through is fragile. 52 up fading 6h false 68
silver B-SI-6H-RATES-HEADWIND-003 In the next 6h, rate-expectations messaging remains a headwind that can cap rallies in silver futures. 58 down stable 6h false 68
{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-20260318T161946Z-silver",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-18T16:19:46Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Silver futures",
 "market_code": "silver"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Unstable",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 46,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 68,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "silver",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "silver"
 ],
 "regime_state": "unstable",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-SI-24H-RANGE-DOWNSKEW-001",
 "market": "silver",
 "claim": "Over the next 24h, silver futures sentiment is rangebound with a mild downside skew as rate-expectations / USD-strength narratives compete with precious-metals flow support.",
 "probability_pct": 55,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "real_rates",
 "usd_strength",
 "precious_metals_flows",
 "macro_policy_expectations"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-SI-6H-FLOW-BID-002"
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-SI-6H-FLOW-BID-002",
 "market": "silver",
 "claim": "Over the next 6h, safe-haven / precious-metals flow framing can intermittently support silver futures, but follow-through is fragile.",
 "probability_pct": 52,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "fading",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "precious_metals_flows",
 "geopolitical_risk_framing"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-SI-6H-RATES-HEADWIND-003"
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-SI-6H-RATES-HEADWIND-003",
 "market": "silver",
 "claim": "In the next 6h, rate-expectations messaging remains a headwind that can cap rallies in silver futures.",
 "probability_pct": 58,
 "direction": "down",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "real_rates",
 "usd_strength",
 "macro_policy_expectations"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-SI-6H-FLOW-BID-002"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "directional_state": "neutral_mixed",
 "momentum_state": "weakening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "unchanged",
 "conviction_score_0_100": 46,
 "freshness_confidence": "medium",
 "catalyst_type": "reversal_warning",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 68,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-SI-24H-RANGE-DOWNSKEW-001",
 "B-SI-6H-FLOW-BID-002",
 "B-SI-6H-RATES-HEADWIND-003"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-SI-CONTRADICTION-MACRO-001",
 "market": "silver",
 "label": "macro_contradiction_pressure",
 "severity": "medium",
 "rationale": "Silver-specific growth/flow narratives coexist with fresh rate-expectations messaging; net signal sits near neutral with rising fragility."
 },
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-SI-DATA-DOMAIN-MIX-002",
 "market": "silver",
 "label": "domain_mismatch_overhang",
 "severity": "medium",
 "rationale": "A meaningful share of admitted evidence is macro-policy themed (USD/real rates) rather than direct silver market microstructure; directionality is therefore less stable."
 },
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-SI-FUTURE-TIMESTAMP-INPUT-003",
 "market": "silver",
 "label": "input_timestamp_inconsistency",
 "severity": "low",
 "rationale": "One risk-anomaly item carries a timestamp later than the workflow0 snapshot time; it was not used for current-state synthesis."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "stay_flat until directional_score_signed exits the neutral band (<= -20 or >= +20) with >=2 fresh-evidence prints in the last 6h."
 },
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "volatility_watch if contradiction_ratio sustains >=0.60 while fresh_evidence_count rises (macro + metals-flow headlines co-occur)."
 },
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "reversal_watch if net sentiment flips from negative drift to positive (directional_score_signed crosses from <0 to >0) within 2-4 hours."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [
 "silver"
 ],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 40,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 40,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.45,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 38,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 2,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 42,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 40,
 "net_sentiment_score": 2,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.45,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 38,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 1,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 41,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 40,
 "net_sentiment_score": 1,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.46,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 38,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 40,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 40,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.47,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 38,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -1,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 40,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 41,
 "net_sentiment_score": -1,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.48,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 39,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -2,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 40,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 42,
 "net_sentiment_score": -2,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.49,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 40,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -3,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 40,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 43,
 "net_sentiment_score": -3,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.5,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 40,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -5,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 39,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 44,
 "net_sentiment_score": -5,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.52,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 41,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -8,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 38,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 46,
 "net_sentiment_score": -8,
 "velocity_score": -3,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.54,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 42,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 65,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 37,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 47,
 "net_sentiment_score": -10,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.55,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 43,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 65,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 36,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 48,
 "net_sentiment_score": -12,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.56,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 44,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -15,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 35,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 50,
 "net_sentiment_score": -15,
 "velocity_score": -3,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.58,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 45,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 67,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 34,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 52,
 "net_sentiment_score": -18,
 "velocity_score": -3,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.6,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 46,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 68,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -16,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 35,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 51,
 "net_sentiment_score": -16,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 5,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.6,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 46,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 68,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -14,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 36,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 50,
 "net_sentiment_score": -14,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.59,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 45,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 67,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -13,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 36,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 49,
 "net_sentiment_score": -13,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.59,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 45,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 67,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 36,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 48,
 "net_sentiment_score": -12,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.6,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 44,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 67,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -11,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 37,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 48,
 "net_sentiment_score": -11,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.6,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 44,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 67,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 37,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 47,
 "net_sentiment_score": -10,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.61,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 43,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 68,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -9,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 37,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 46,
 "net_sentiment_score": -9,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.62,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 43,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 69,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 36,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 46,
 "net_sentiment_score": -10,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.62,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 43,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 69,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 36,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 48,
 "net_sentiment_score": -12,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.63,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 44,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 69,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -14,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 35,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 49,
 "net_sentiment_score": -14,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.63,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 45,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 68,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -15,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 35,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 50,
 "net_sentiment_score": -15,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.62,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 46,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 68,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 2,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": -18,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "down",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 15,
 "signal_regime": "mixed_flat"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 7,
 "cross_domain_merges": 2,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Scope locked to single market: silver.",
 "Admitted signals emphasise macro-policy (rates/USD) + precious-metals flow framing; direct mine-supply/industrial-demand micro signals are present but less time-concentrated.",
 "Risk-anomaly RA-001 timestamp is later than workflow0 snapshot timestamp; excluded from state synthesis for this run."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}