• subject_area: Silver futures
  • target_market_code: silver
  • ticker:
  • regime_state: unstable
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: RF-SI-CB_EVENT_CLUSTER (high)
  • generated_at: 2026-03-18T06:15:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Unstable
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0
market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
silver B-SI-001 Over the next 6h, silver is more likely to stay rangebound-to-slightly higher than to trend lower, as safe-haven/precious-metals flow narratives offset rate/real-yield headwinds into major central-bank risk. 55 up fading 6h false 68
silver B-SI-002 Over the next 24h, silver has elevated downside-tail risk if policy guidance (dots/forward guidance) reinforces higher-for-longer real-rate expectations, which can overwhelm safe-haven support. 46 down stable 24h false 68
silver B-SI-003 Over the next 24h, volatility is more likely than clean directional continuation (whipsaw risk around policy/geopolitical headlines). 62 mixed accelerating 24h false 68
{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-silver-20260318T061500Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-18T06:15:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Silver futures",
 "market_code": "silver"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Unstable",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 44,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 68,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "silver",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "silver"
 ],
 "regime_state": "unstable",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-SI-001",
 "market": "silver",
 "claim": "Over the next 6h, silver is more likely to stay rangebound-to-slightly higher than to trend lower, as safe-haven/precious-metals flow narratives offset rate/real-yield headwinds into major central-bank risk.",
 "probability_pct": 55,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "fading",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "precious_metals_flows",
 "geopolitical_risk",
 "central_bank_event_risk"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-SI-002"
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-SI-002",
 "market": "silver",
 "claim": "Over the next 24h, silver has elevated downside-tail risk if policy guidance (dots/forward guidance) reinforces higher-for-longer real-rate expectations, which can overwhelm safe-haven support.",
 "probability_pct": 46,
 "direction": "down",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "real_rates",
 "usd_strength",
 "policy_surprise_risk"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-SI-001"
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-SI-003",
 "market": "silver",
 "claim": "Over the next 24h, volatility is more likely than clean directional continuation (whipsaw risk around policy/geopolitical headlines).",
 "probability_pct": 62,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "central_bank_event_risk",
 "geopolitical_risk",
 "technical_indecision"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": []
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "directional_state": "neutral_mixed",
 "momentum_state": "weakening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "unchanged",
 "conviction_score_0_100": 44,
 "freshness_confidence": "medium",
 "catalyst_type": "reversal_warning",
 "stale_suppression_applied": true,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 68,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-SI-001",
 "B-SI-003"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag_id": "RF-SI-CB_EVENT_CLUSTER",
 "market": "silver",
 "severity": "high",
 "detail": "Central-bank decision week + guidance/dot-plot sensitivity raises whipsaw risk; directional conviction capped despite fresh macro chatter."
 },
 {
 "flag_id": "RF-SI-MIXED_DRIVERS_CONTRADICTION",
 "market": "silver",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "Safe-haven/geo support conflicts with real-rate/USD headwinds; net signal remains inside neutral band."
 },
 {
 "flag_id": "RF-SI-STALE_CONTEXT_OVERHANG",
 "market": "silver",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "Several supportive narratives are persistent/slow-burn; without a fresh silver-specific catalyst, momentum classification is weakened."
 },
 {
 "flag_id": "RF-SI-TECHNICAL_INDECISION",
 "market": "silver",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "Recent technical framing (triangle/inflection language) increases reversal sensitivity around headline flow."
 },
 {
 "flag_id": "RF-SI-DATA_DENSITY_SKEW",
 "market": "silver",
 "severity": "low",
 "detail": "Evidence mix is macro-heavy versus directly silver-specific; conviction and freshness confidence held to medium."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If post-decision narrative reduces policy uncertainty (contradiction ratio falls) and net directional score sustains beyond \u00b120 for 2+ buckets, reclassify out of neutral.",
 "label": "volatility_watch"
 },
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If a fresh (<=2h) high-authority signal materially flips the balance between safe-haven demand and real-rate pressure, elevate reversal monitoring and cap conviction further.",
 "label": "reversal_watch"
 },
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "While directional score remains between -20 and +20 and fragility stays elevated (>60), prefer neutral posture label-only.",
 "label": "stay_flat"
 },
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "confidence": "low",
 "trigger_condition": "If USD/real-rate pressure narratives dominate and directional score drops <= -20 with improving freshness confidence, switch to short-bias watch.",
 "label": "watch_short_bias"
 },
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "confidence": "low",
 "trigger_condition": "If safe-haven/precious-metals flows dominate and directional score rises >= +20 with reduced contradiction ratio, switch to long-bias watch.",
 "label": "watch_long_bias"
 },
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If fragility rises >= 70 (e.g., late-breaking invalidation sentinel triggers) without corroboration, maintain hard de-risk watch label-only.",
 "label": "hard_de_risk_watch"
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [
 "silver"
 ],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T06:15:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T07:15:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 6,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 28,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 22,
 "net_sentiment_score": 6,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.52,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 6,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 38,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T07:15:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T08:15:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 6,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 28,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 22,
 "net_sentiment_score": 6,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.52,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 6,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 38,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T08:15:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T09:15:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 7,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 29,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 22,
 "net_sentiment_score": 7,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.51,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 6,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 39,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T09:15:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T10:15:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 8,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 30,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 22,
 "net_sentiment_score": 8,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.51,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 6,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 40,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T10:15:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T11:15:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 9,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 31,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 22,
 "net_sentiment_score": 9,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.5,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 6,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 41,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T11:15:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T12:15:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 32,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 22,
 "net_sentiment_score": 10,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.5,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 6,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 42,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T12:15:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T13:15:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 11,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 33,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 22,
 "net_sentiment_score": 11,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.49,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 6,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 43,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 59,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T13:15:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T14:15:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 34,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 22,
 "net_sentiment_score": 12,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.49,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 6,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 44,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 59,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T14:15:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T15:15:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 34,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 22,
 "net_sentiment_score": 12,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.5,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 6,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 44,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T15:15:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T16:15:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 11,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 33,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 22,
 "net_sentiment_score": 11,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.51,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 6,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 42,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T16:15:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T17:15:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 32,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 22,
 "net_sentiment_score": 10,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.52,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 6,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 41,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T17:15:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T18:15:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 9,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 31,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 22,
 "net_sentiment_score": 9,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.53,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 6,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 40,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T18:15:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T19:15:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 5,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 28,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 23,
 "net_sentiment_score": 5,
 "velocity_score": -4,
 "acceleration_score": -3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.58,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 6,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 36,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T19:15:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T20:15:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -6,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 22,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 28,
 "net_sentiment_score": -6,
 "velocity_score": -11,
 "acceleration_score": -7,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.65,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 6,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 40,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 70,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T20:15:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T21:15:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -2,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 24,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 26,
 "net_sentiment_score": -2,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 15,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.62,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 6,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 39,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 69,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T21:15:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T22:15:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 2,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 26,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 24,
 "net_sentiment_score": 2,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.58,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 6,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 36,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T22:15:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T23:15:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 6,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 28,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 22,
 "net_sentiment_score": 6,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.55,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 6,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 39,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T23:15:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T00:15:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 8,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 30,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 22,
 "net_sentiment_score": 8,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.54,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 6,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 40,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T00:15:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T01:15:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 32,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 22,
 "net_sentiment_score": 10,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.52,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 6,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 45,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T01:15:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T02:15:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 11,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 33,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 22,
 "net_sentiment_score": 11,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.51,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 6,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 45,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T02:15:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T03:15:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 13,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 35,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 22,
 "net_sentiment_score": 13,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.5,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 6,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 47,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T03:15:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T04:15:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 14,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 36,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 22,
 "net_sentiment_score": 14,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.49,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 6,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 48,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T04:15:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T05:15:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 15,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 37,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 22,
 "net_sentiment_score": 15,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.49,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 6,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 47,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T05:15:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T06:15:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 13,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 35,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 22,
 "net_sentiment_score": 13,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": -3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.52,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 6,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 44,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 15,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": -6,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "down",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 2,
 "signal_regime": "mixed_flat"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 9,
 "cross_domain_merges": 3,
 "stale_suppression_count": 1,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Target scope resolved explicitly to 'silver'; single-market synthesis applied.",
 "No per-record physics/timeslice microstructure provided to 6B; used trend recency proxies + velocity_hint + macro/event clustering to conservatively cap conviction.",
 "State-change computed with no prior state memory available; assumed prior neutral baseline for 'unchanged' classification."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}