- subject_area: Silver futures
- target_market_code: silver
- ticker:
- regime_state: unstable
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: RF-SI-CB_EVENT_CLUSTER (high)
- generated_at: 2026-03-18T06:15:00Z
- sentiment_word: Unstable
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
| market |
belief_id |
claim |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| silver |
B-SI-001 |
Over the next 6h, silver is more likely to stay rangebound-to-slightly higher than to trend lower, as safe-haven/precious-metals flow narratives offset rate/real-yield headwinds into major central-bank risk. |
55 |
up |
fading |
6h |
false |
68 |
| silver |
B-SI-002 |
Over the next 24h, silver has elevated downside-tail risk if policy guidance (dots/forward guidance) reinforces higher-for-longer real-rate expectations, which can overwhelm safe-haven support. |
46 |
down |
stable |
24h |
false |
68 |
| silver |
B-SI-003 |
Over the next 24h, volatility is more likely than clean directional continuation (whipsaw risk around policy/geopolitical headlines). |
62 |
mixed |
accelerating |
24h |
false |
68 |
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-silver-20260318T061500Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-18T06:15:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Silver futures",
"market_code": "silver"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Unstable",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "silver",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"silver"
],
"regime_state": "unstable",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-SI-001",
"market": "silver",
"claim": "Over the next 6h, silver is more likely to stay rangebound-to-slightly higher than to trend lower, as safe-haven/precious-metals flow narratives offset rate/real-yield headwinds into major central-bank risk.",
"probability_pct": 55,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"precious_metals_flows",
"geopolitical_risk",
"central_bank_event_risk"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-SI-002"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-SI-002",
"market": "silver",
"claim": "Over the next 24h, silver has elevated downside-tail risk if policy guidance (dots/forward guidance) reinforces higher-for-longer real-rate expectations, which can overwhelm safe-haven support.",
"probability_pct": 46,
"direction": "down",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"real_rates",
"usd_strength",
"policy_surprise_risk"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-SI-001"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-SI-003",
"market": "silver",
"claim": "Over the next 24h, volatility is more likely than clean directional continuation (whipsaw risk around policy/geopolitical headlines).",
"probability_pct": 62,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"central_bank_event_risk",
"geopolitical_risk",
"technical_indecision"
],
"contradicted_by": []
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "silver",
"directional_state": "neutral_mixed",
"momentum_state": "weakening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "unchanged",
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"freshness_confidence": "medium",
"catalyst_type": "reversal_warning",
"stale_suppression_applied": true,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-SI-001",
"B-SI-003"
]
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag_id": "RF-SI-CB_EVENT_CLUSTER",
"market": "silver",
"severity": "high",
"detail": "Central-bank decision week + guidance/dot-plot sensitivity raises whipsaw risk; directional conviction capped despite fresh macro chatter."
},
{
"flag_id": "RF-SI-MIXED_DRIVERS_CONTRADICTION",
"market": "silver",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Safe-haven/geo support conflicts with real-rate/USD headwinds; net signal remains inside neutral band."
},
{
"flag_id": "RF-SI-STALE_CONTEXT_OVERHANG",
"market": "silver",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Several supportive narratives are persistent/slow-burn; without a fresh silver-specific catalyst, momentum classification is weakened."
},
{
"flag_id": "RF-SI-TECHNICAL_INDECISION",
"market": "silver",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Recent technical framing (triangle/inflection language) increases reversal sensitivity around headline flow."
},
{
"flag_id": "RF-SI-DATA_DENSITY_SKEW",
"market": "silver",
"severity": "low",
"detail": "Evidence mix is macro-heavy versus directly silver-specific; conviction and freshness confidence held to medium."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "silver",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If post-decision narrative reduces policy uncertainty (contradiction ratio falls) and net directional score sustains beyond \u00b120 for 2+ buckets, reclassify out of neutral.",
"label": "volatility_watch"
},
{
"market": "silver",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If a fresh (<=2h) high-authority signal materially flips the balance between safe-haven demand and real-rate pressure, elevate reversal monitoring and cap conviction further.",
"label": "reversal_watch"
},
{
"market": "silver",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "While directional score remains between -20 and +20 and fragility stays elevated (>60), prefer neutral posture label-only.",
"label": "stay_flat"
},
{
"market": "silver",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "If USD/real-rate pressure narratives dominate and directional score drops <= -20 with improving freshness confidence, switch to short-bias watch.",
"label": "watch_short_bias"
},
{
"market": "silver",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "If safe-haven/precious-metals flows dominate and directional score rises >= +20 with reduced contradiction ratio, switch to long-bias watch.",
"label": "watch_long_bias"
},
{
"market": "silver",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If fragility rises >= 70 (e.g., late-breaking invalidation sentinel triggers) without corroboration, maintain hard de-risk watch label-only.",
"label": "hard_de_risk_watch"
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [
"silver"
],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T06:15:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T07:15:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 6,
"bullish_pressure_score": 28,
"bearish_pressure_score": 22,
"net_sentiment_score": 6,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.52,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 38,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T07:15:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T08:15:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 6,
"bullish_pressure_score": 28,
"bearish_pressure_score": 22,
"net_sentiment_score": 6,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.52,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 38,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T08:15:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T09:15:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 7,
"bullish_pressure_score": 29,
"bearish_pressure_score": 22,
"net_sentiment_score": 7,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.51,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 39,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T09:15:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T10:15:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 30,
"bearish_pressure_score": 22,
"net_sentiment_score": 8,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.51,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 40,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T10:15:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T11:15:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 9,
"bullish_pressure_score": 31,
"bearish_pressure_score": 22,
"net_sentiment_score": 9,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.5,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 41,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T11:15:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T12:15:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 32,
"bearish_pressure_score": 22,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.5,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 42,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T12:15:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T13:15:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 11,
"bullish_pressure_score": 33,
"bearish_pressure_score": 22,
"net_sentiment_score": 11,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.49,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 43,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T13:15:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T14:15:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 34,
"bearish_pressure_score": 22,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.49,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T14:15:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T15:15:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 34,
"bearish_pressure_score": 22,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.5,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T15:15:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T16:15:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 11,
"bullish_pressure_score": 33,
"bearish_pressure_score": 22,
"net_sentiment_score": 11,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.51,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 42,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T16:15:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T17:15:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 32,
"bearish_pressure_score": 22,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.52,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 41,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T17:15:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T18:15:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 9,
"bullish_pressure_score": 31,
"bearish_pressure_score": 22,
"net_sentiment_score": 9,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.53,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 40,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T18:15:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T19:15:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 5,
"bullish_pressure_score": 28,
"bearish_pressure_score": 23,
"net_sentiment_score": 5,
"velocity_score": -4,
"acceleration_score": -3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.58,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 36,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T19:15:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T20:15:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -6,
"bullish_pressure_score": 22,
"bearish_pressure_score": 28,
"net_sentiment_score": -6,
"velocity_score": -11,
"acceleration_score": -7,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.65,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 40,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T20:15:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T21:15:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -2,
"bullish_pressure_score": 24,
"bearish_pressure_score": 26,
"net_sentiment_score": -2,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 15,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.62,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 39,
"fragility_score_0_100": 69,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T21:15:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T22:15:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 2,
"bullish_pressure_score": 26,
"bearish_pressure_score": 24,
"net_sentiment_score": 2,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.58,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 36,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T22:15:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T23:15:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 6,
"bullish_pressure_score": 28,
"bearish_pressure_score": 22,
"net_sentiment_score": 6,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.55,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 39,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T23:15:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T00:15:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 30,
"bearish_pressure_score": 22,
"net_sentiment_score": 8,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.54,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 40,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T00:15:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T01:15:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 32,
"bearish_pressure_score": 22,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.52,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T01:15:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T02:15:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 11,
"bullish_pressure_score": 33,
"bearish_pressure_score": 22,
"net_sentiment_score": 11,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.51,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T02:15:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T03:15:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 13,
"bullish_pressure_score": 35,
"bearish_pressure_score": 22,
"net_sentiment_score": 13,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.5,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 47,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T03:15:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T04:15:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 14,
"bullish_pressure_score": 36,
"bearish_pressure_score": 22,
"net_sentiment_score": 14,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.49,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T04:15:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T05:15:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 15,
"bullish_pressure_score": 37,
"bearish_pressure_score": 22,
"net_sentiment_score": 15,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.49,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 47,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T05:15:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T06:15:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 13,
"bullish_pressure_score": 35,
"bearish_pressure_score": 22,
"net_sentiment_score": 13,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.52,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 15,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": -6,
"latest_inflection_direction": "down",
"latest_inflection_strength": 2,
"signal_regime": "mixed_flat"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 9,
"cross_domain_merges": 3,
"stale_suppression_count": 1,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Target scope resolved explicitly to 'silver'; single-market synthesis applied.",
"No per-record physics/timeslice microstructure provided to 6B; used trend recency proxies + velocity_hint + macro/event clustering to conservatively cap conviction.",
"State-change computed with no prior state memory available; assumed prior neutral baseline for 'unchanged' classification."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}