Snapshot
- subject_area: Natural gas futures (NG)
- target_market_code: natural_gas
- ticker: NG
- regime_state: unstable
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: RF-NG-NARRATIVE_WHIPSAW
- generated_at: 2026-03-18 12:00 UTC
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| natural_gas | B-NG-001 | Over the next 6 hours, natural gas futures show a mild upward bias driven mainly by LNG/export-linked supply-risk narratives (geopolitical escalation + LNG shipping/supply disruption themes), rather than domestic weather/storage fundamentals. | 58 | up | fading | 6h | false | 79 |
| natural_gas | B-NG-002 | Over the next 24 hours, the dominant feature is elevated headline-driven volatility (risk-premium whipsaw). Net direction remains slightly upward, but conviction is capped by indirect linkages to Henry Hub and limited domestic demand/storage evidence. | 55 | mixed | stable | 24h | false | 79 |
| natural_gas | B-NG-003 | If late-breaking Europe/Asia gas demand softness narratives dominate, or if supply-stability messaging gains traction, natural gas futures can retrace quickly (risk-premium fade) within 6–24 hours. | 42 | down | accelerating | 24h | false | 79 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-NG-20260318T120000Z-001",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-18T12:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Natural gas futures (NG)",
"market_code": "natural_gas"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Reversal-Risk",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 79,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "natural_gas",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"natural_gas"
],
"regime_state": "unstable",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-NG-001",
"market": "natural_gas",
"claim": "Over the next 6 hours, natural gas futures show a mild upward bias driven mainly by LNG/export-linked supply-risk narratives (geopolitical escalation + LNG shipping/supply disruption themes), rather than domestic weather/storage fundamentals.",
"probability_pct": 58,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"export_lng",
"pipeline_flows",
"production_outages (indirect via infrastructure/security risk)"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-NG-003"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-NG-002",
"market": "natural_gas",
"claim": "Over the next 24 hours, the dominant feature is elevated headline-driven volatility (risk-premium whipsaw). Net direction remains slightly upward, but conviction is capped by indirect linkages to Henry Hub and limited domestic demand/storage evidence.",
"probability_pct": 55,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"export_lng",
"geopolitical risk premium transmission",
"shipping/LNG flow uncertainty"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-NG-003"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-NG-003",
"market": "natural_gas",
"claim": "If late-breaking Europe/Asia gas demand softness narratives dominate, or if supply-stability messaging gains traction, natural gas futures can retrace quickly (risk-premium fade) within 6\u201324 hours.",
"probability_pct": 42,
"direction": "down",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"weather_demand (missing/unclear in current feed)",
"storage (missing/unclear in current feed)",
"macro demand risk"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-NG-001",
"B-NG-002"
]
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "weakening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"freshness_confidence": "medium",
"catalyst_type": "reversal_warning",
"stale_suppression_applied": true,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 79,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-NG-001",
"B-NG-002"
]
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag_id": "RF-NG-RECENCY_VS_BACKGROUND",
"market": "natural_gas",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Directional lean relies on geopolitics/LNG narratives with mixed recency (fresh mentions layered on older-origin themes). Stale-suppression applied; momentum tagged weakening."
},
{
"flag_id": "RF-NG-NARRATIVE_WHIPSAW",
"market": "natural_gas",
"severity": "high",
"detail": "Signal set is headline-driven (geopolitical + LNG logistics) and can flip quickly on de-escalation / confirmation / denial cycles."
},
{
"flag_id": "RF-NG-DATA_SPARSITY_CORE_FUNDAMENTALS",
"market": "natural_gas",
"severity": "high",
"detail": "Current admitted evidence is light on direct US natgas fundamentals (weather, storage, production outages, domestic demand). Conviction capped and fragility elevated."
},
{
"flag_id": "RF-NG-ECHO_RISK_SINGLE_SOURCE",
"market": "natural_gas",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Several very-recent items are single-source/low-diversity (VIP lane). They influence short-horizon reversal risk more than conviction."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"market": "natural_gas",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Fresh multi-source confirmation that LNG supply/shipping disruption risk is tightening (or export demand is rising) without simultaneous strong demand-weakness headlines."
},
{
"action": "volatility_watch",
"market": "natural_gas",
"confidence": "high",
"trigger_condition": "Continuation of late-cycle geopolitical/infrastructure headlines with mixed authority (risk-premium expansion and intraday reversals likely)."
},
{
"action": "reversal_watch",
"market": "natural_gas",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "A high-authority, very-fresh (<=2h) demand-weakness or supply-stability catalyst appears and begins to propagate across multiple sources."
},
{
"action": "stay_flat",
"market": "natural_gas",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "If no additional corroborating evidence arrives and the signal remains dominated by indirect/global narratives rather than Henry Hub fundamentals."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"natural_gas"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 2,
"bullish_pressure_score": 51,
"bearish_pressure_score": 49,
"net_sentiment_score": 2,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.32,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 32,
"fragility_score_0_100": 84,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 1,
"bullish_pressure_score": 51,
"bearish_pressure_score": 50,
"net_sentiment_score": 1,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.33,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 31,
"fragility_score_0_100": 84,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -4,
"bullish_pressure_score": 48,
"bearish_pressure_score": 52,
"net_sentiment_score": -4,
"velocity_score": -5,
"acceleration_score": -4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.38,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 33,
"fragility_score_0_100": 86,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -2,
"bullish_pressure_score": 49,
"bearish_pressure_score": 51,
"net_sentiment_score": -2,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 7,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.37,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 32,
"fragility_score_0_100": 86,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 50,
"bearish_pressure_score": 50,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.35,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 30,
"fragility_score_0_100": 84,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 2,
"bullish_pressure_score": 51,
"bearish_pressure_score": 49,
"net_sentiment_score": 2,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.34,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 32,
"fragility_score_0_100": 83,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 3,
"bullish_pressure_score": 52,
"bearish_pressure_score": 49,
"net_sentiment_score": 3,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.34,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 32,
"fragility_score_0_100": 83,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 4,
"bullish_pressure_score": 52,
"bearish_pressure_score": 48,
"net_sentiment_score": 4,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.34,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 33,
"fragility_score_0_100": 82,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 5,
"bullish_pressure_score": 53,
"bearish_pressure_score": 48,
"net_sentiment_score": 5,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.34,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 34,
"fragility_score_0_100": 82,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 6,
"bullish_pressure_score": 53,
"bearish_pressure_score": 47,
"net_sentiment_score": 6,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.35,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 35,
"fragility_score_0_100": 82,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 7,
"bullish_pressure_score": 54,
"bearish_pressure_score": 47,
"net_sentiment_score": 7,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.35,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 36,
"fragility_score_0_100": 81,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 54,
"bearish_pressure_score": 46,
"net_sentiment_score": 8,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.35,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 36,
"fragility_score_0_100": 81,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 55,
"bearish_pressure_score": 45,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.36,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 38,
"fragility_score_0_100": 81,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 56,
"bearish_pressure_score": 44,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.36,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 40,
"fragility_score_0_100": 80,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 14,
"bullish_pressure_score": 57,
"bearish_pressure_score": 43,
"net_sentiment_score": 14,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.37,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 41,
"fragility_score_0_100": 80,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 15,
"bullish_pressure_score": 58,
"bearish_pressure_score": 43,
"net_sentiment_score": 15,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.38,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 42,
"fragility_score_0_100": 80,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 16,
"bullish_pressure_score": 58,
"bearish_pressure_score": 42,
"net_sentiment_score": 16,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.38,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 43,
"fragility_score_0_100": 80,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 61,
"bearish_pressure_score": 39,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 6,
"acceleration_score": 5,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.41,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 77,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 65,
"bearish_pressure_score": 35,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 8,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.44,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 76,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 64,
"bearish_pressure_score": 36,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -10,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.46,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 78,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 26,
"bullish_pressure_score": 63,
"bearish_pressure_score": 37,
"net_sentiment_score": 26,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.47,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 51,
"fragility_score_0_100": 79,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 62,
"bearish_pressure_score": 38,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.48,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 49,
"fragility_score_0_100": 80,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 59,
"bearish_pressure_score": 41,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": -6,
"acceleration_score": -4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.51,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 83,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 14,
"bullish_pressure_score": 57,
"bearish_pressure_score": 43,
"net_sentiment_score": 14,
"velocity_score": -4,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.55,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 41,
"fragility_score_0_100": 86,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 30,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": -4,
"latest_inflection_direction": "down",
"latest_inflection_strength": 16,
"signal_regime": "weakening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 8,
"cross_domain_merges": 2,
"stale_suppression_count": 1,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Target market resolved explicitly from flight_plan.target_market_code=natural_gas.",
"Admitted set dominated by geopolitical/LNG/shipping/infrastructure-risk narratives; direct US natgas fundamentals (weather, storage, production) not prominent in this feed slice.",
"No prior market_state_table or trend_state_memory provided; state_change computed versus an assumed neutral baseline."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}