Snapshot
- subject_area: Natural gas futures
- target_market_code: natural_gas
- ticker: null
- regime_state: unstable
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: RF-NG-01 (data_sparsity_us_fundamentals)
- generated_at: 2026-03-18T22:05:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market |
belief_id |
claim |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| natural_gas |
B-NG-01 |
Near-term natural gas pricing has upside skew due to elevated LNG/geopolitical supply-disruption risk (Qatar/Russia-linked narratives) despite limited direct US fundamentals in the admitted feed. |
58 |
up |
accelerating |
6h |
false |
62 |
| natural_gas |
B-NG-02 |
Over the next 24h, headline risk remains a price-supportive backdrop, but the signal is fragile because evidence is dominated by broad geopolitical narratives rather than fresh weather/storage/production datapoints. |
55 |
up |
stable |
24h |
false |
62 |
| natural_gas |
B-NG-03 |
Isolated/low-diversity outliers pointing to localised fuel supply stability and demand-policy softness can cap upside and increase whipsaw risk if corroborated. |
42 |
mixed |
fading |
24h |
false |
62 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-natural_gas-20260318T220500Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-18T22:05:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Natural gas futures",
"market_code": "natural_gas"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "natural_gas",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"natural_gas"
],
"regime_state": "unstable",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-NG-01",
"market": "natural_gas",
"claim": "Near-term natural gas pricing has upside skew due to elevated LNG/geopolitical supply-disruption risk (Qatar/Russia-linked narratives) despite limited direct US fundamentals in the admitted feed.",
"probability_pct": 58,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"export_lng",
"pipeline_flows",
"production_outages"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-NG-03"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-NG-02",
"market": "natural_gas",
"claim": "Over the next 24h, headline risk remains a price-supportive backdrop, but the signal is fragile because evidence is dominated by broad geopolitical narratives rather than fresh weather/storage/production datapoints.",
"probability_pct": 55,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"export_lng",
"storage"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-NG-03"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-NG-03",
"market": "natural_gas",
"claim": "Isolated/low-diversity outliers pointing to localised fuel supply stability and demand-policy softness can cap upside and increase whipsaw risk if corroborated.",
"probability_pct": 42,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"storage",
"weather_demand"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-NG-01",
"B-NG-02"
]
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"freshness_confidence": "medium",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-NG-01",
"B-NG-02"
]
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF-NG-01",
"market": "natural_gas",
"flag": "data_sparsity_us_fundamentals",
"severity": "high",
"rationale": "Admitted signals are heavy on geopolitics/LNG narratives with minimal explicit weather/storage/US production datapoints, raising mapping uncertainty from narrative-to-price.",
"last_update_utc": "2026-03-18T21:12:25Z"
},
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF-NG-02",
"market": "natural_gas",
"flag": "contradiction_risk_single_source_outliers",
"severity": "medium",
"rationale": "Multiple singleton VIP/risk items (low domain diversity) introduce whipsaw risk if later corroboration flips the balance.",
"last_update_utc": "2026-03-18T16:28:47Z"
},
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF-NG-03",
"market": "natural_gas",
"flag": "geopolitical_tail_risk_dominant_driver",
"severity": "medium",
"rationale": "Directional support is primarily risk-premium driven (supply disruption/tension narratives); if tensions de-escalate, bullish premium can decay quickly.",
"last_update_utc": "2026-03-18T21:12:25Z"
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Maintain a long-bias watch only if fresh corroborating LNG disruption / escalation signals persist in the next 2\u20136h without an offsetting demand-weakness catalyst.",
"action": "watch_long_bias"
},
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"confidence": "high",
"trigger_condition": "If contradiction ratio rises (more mixed signals) or singleton outliers become multi-sourced, expect higher volatility/whipsaw risk.",
"action": "volatility_watch"
},
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If new (\u22642h) credible supply-stability or demand-softness signals arrive and cluster, treat as a potential reversal/neutralisation of the bullish risk-premium.",
"action": "reversal_watch"
},
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "If admitted evidence remains narrative-heavy with no fresh directional confirmation for >24h, de-emphasise directional bias and prioritise monitoring only.",
"action": "stay_flat"
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"natural_gas"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 55,
"bearish_pressure_score": 45,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 36,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 56,
"bearish_pressure_score": 44,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 37,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 14,
"bullish_pressure_score": 57,
"bearish_pressure_score": 43,
"net_sentiment_score": 14,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 38,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 16,
"bullish_pressure_score": 58,
"bearish_pressure_score": 42,
"net_sentiment_score": 16,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 39,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 59,
"bearish_pressure_score": 41,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 41,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 61,
"bearish_pressure_score": 39,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 26,
"bullish_pressure_score": 63,
"bearish_pressure_score": 37,
"net_sentiment_score": 26,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 49,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 32,
"bullish_pressure_score": 66,
"bearish_pressure_score": 34,
"net_sentiment_score": 32,
"velocity_score": 6,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 35,
"bullish_pressure_score": 68,
"bearish_pressure_score": 32,
"net_sentiment_score": 35,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": -3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 33,
"bullish_pressure_score": 67,
"bearish_pressure_score": 33,
"net_sentiment_score": 33,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -5,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 31,
"bullish_pressure_score": 66,
"bearish_pressure_score": 34,
"net_sentiment_score": 31,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 64,
"bearish_pressure_score": 36,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": -3,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 51,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 26,
"bullish_pressure_score": 63,
"bearish_pressure_score": 37,
"net_sentiment_score": 26,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 49,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 62,
"bearish_pressure_score": 38,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 23,
"bullish_pressure_score": 62,
"bearish_pressure_score": 38,
"net_sentiment_score": 23,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 47,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 61,
"bearish_pressure_score": 39,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 61,
"bearish_pressure_score": 39,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 21,
"bullish_pressure_score": 61,
"bearish_pressure_score": 39,
"net_sentiment_score": 21,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 60,
"bearish_pressure_score": 40,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 21,
"bullish_pressure_score": 61,
"bearish_pressure_score": 39,
"net_sentiment_score": 21,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 61,
"bearish_pressure_score": 39,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 23,
"bullish_pressure_score": 62,
"bearish_pressure_score": 38,
"net_sentiment_score": 23,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 47,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 62,
"bearish_pressure_score": 38,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 47,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 25,
"bullish_pressure_score": 63,
"bearish_pressure_score": 37,
"net_sentiment_score": 25,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 35,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 2,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
},
"diagnostics": {
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 6,
"cross_domain_merges": 2,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Target market resolved explicitly from flight_plan.target_market_code=natural_gas.",
"Some trends were not force-mapped to natural_gas due to weak alias confidence (broad geopolitics without explicit gas/LNG linkage).",
"Prior state not provided (trend_state_memory absent); state_change computed as new_bullish under unknown prior."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}
}