Snapshot

  • subject_area: Natural gas futures
  • target_market_code: natural_gas
  • ticker: null
  • regime_state: unstable
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: RF-NG-01 (data_sparsity_us_fundamentals)
  • generated_at: 2026-03-18T22:05:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
natural_gas B-NG-01 Near-term natural gas pricing has upside skew due to elevated LNG/geopolitical supply-disruption risk (Qatar/Russia-linked narratives) despite limited direct US fundamentals in the admitted feed. 58 up accelerating 6h false 62
natural_gas B-NG-02 Over the next 24h, headline risk remains a price-supportive backdrop, but the signal is fragile because evidence is dominated by broad geopolitical narratives rather than fresh weather/storage/production datapoints. 55 up stable 24h false 62
natural_gas B-NG-03 Isolated/low-diversity outliers pointing to localised fuel supply stability and demand-policy softness can cap upside and increase whipsaw risk if corroborated. 42 mixed fading 24h false 62

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-natural_gas-20260318T220500Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-18T22:05:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Natural gas futures",
 "market_code": "natural_gas"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "natural_gas",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "natural_gas"
 ],
 "regime_state": "unstable",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-NG-01",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "claim": "Near-term natural gas pricing has upside skew due to elevated LNG/geopolitical supply-disruption risk (Qatar/Russia-linked narratives) despite limited direct US fundamentals in the admitted feed.",
 "probability_pct": 58,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "export_lng",
 "pipeline_flows",
 "production_outages"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-NG-03"
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-NG-02",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "claim": "Over the next 24h, headline risk remains a price-supportive backdrop, but the signal is fragile because evidence is dominated by broad geopolitical narratives rather than fresh weather/storage/production datapoints.",
 "probability_pct": 55,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "export_lng",
 "storage"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-NG-03"
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-NG-03",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "claim": "Isolated/low-diversity outliers pointing to localised fuel supply stability and demand-policy softness can cap upside and increase whipsaw risk if corroborated.",
 "probability_pct": 42,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "fading",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "storage",
 "weather_demand"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-NG-01",
 "B-NG-02"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "new_bullish",
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "freshness_confidence": "medium",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-NG-01",
 "B-NG-02"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-NG-01",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "flag": "data_sparsity_us_fundamentals",
 "severity": "high",
 "rationale": "Admitted signals are heavy on geopolitics/LNG narratives with minimal explicit weather/storage/US production datapoints, raising mapping uncertainty from narrative-to-price.",
 "last_update_utc": "2026-03-18T21:12:25Z"
 },
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-NG-02",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "flag": "contradiction_risk_single_source_outliers",
 "severity": "medium",
 "rationale": "Multiple singleton VIP/risk items (low domain diversity) introduce whipsaw risk if later corroboration flips the balance.",
 "last_update_utc": "2026-03-18T16:28:47Z"
 },
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-NG-03",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "flag": "geopolitical_tail_risk_dominant_driver",
 "severity": "medium",
 "rationale": "Directional support is primarily risk-premium driven (supply disruption/tension narratives); if tensions de-escalate, bullish premium can decay quickly.",
 "last_update_utc": "2026-03-18T21:12:25Z"
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Maintain a long-bias watch only if fresh corroborating LNG disruption / escalation signals persist in the next 2\u20136h without an offsetting demand-weakness catalyst.",
 "action": "watch_long_bias"
 },
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "confidence": "high",
 "trigger_condition": "If contradiction ratio rises (more mixed signals) or singleton outliers become multi-sourced, expect higher volatility/whipsaw risk.",
 "action": "volatility_watch"
 },
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If new (\u22642h) credible supply-stability or demand-softness signals arrive and cluster, treat as a potential reversal/neutralisation of the bullish risk-premium.",
 "action": "reversal_watch"
 },
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "confidence": "low",
 "trigger_condition": "If admitted evidence remains narrative-heavy with no fresh directional confirmation for >24h, de-emphasise directional bias and prioritise monitoring only.",
 "action": "stay_flat"
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "natural_gas"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 55,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 45,
 "net_sentiment_score": 10,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 36,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 56,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 44,
 "net_sentiment_score": 12,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 37,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 14,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 57,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 43,
 "net_sentiment_score": 14,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 38,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 65,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 16,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 58,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 42,
 "net_sentiment_score": 16,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 39,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 65,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 59,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 41,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 41,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 61,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 39,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 45,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 26,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 63,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 37,
 "net_sentiment_score": 26,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 49,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 32,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 66,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 34,
 "net_sentiment_score": 32,
 "velocity_score": 6,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 35,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 68,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 32,
 "net_sentiment_score": 35,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": -3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 33,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 67,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 33,
 "net_sentiment_score": 33,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": -5,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 31,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 66,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 34,
 "net_sentiment_score": 31,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 55,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 59,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 28,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 64,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 36,
 "net_sentiment_score": 28,
 "velocity_score": -3,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 51,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 26,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 63,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 37,
 "net_sentiment_score": 26,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 49,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 24,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 62,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 38,
 "net_sentiment_score": 24,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 48,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 23,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 62,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 38,
 "net_sentiment_score": 23,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 47,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 61,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 39,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 46,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 61,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 39,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 45,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 21,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 61,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 39,
 "net_sentiment_score": 21,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 44,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 65,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 60,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 40,
 "net_sentiment_score": 20,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 45,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 21,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 61,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 39,
 "net_sentiment_score": 21,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 45,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 65,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 61,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 39,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 46,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 23,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 62,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 38,
 "net_sentiment_score": 23,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 47,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 24,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 62,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 38,
 "net_sentiment_score": 24,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 47,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 25,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 63,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 37,
 "net_sentiment_score": 25,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 48,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 35,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 2,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 6,
 "cross_domain_merges": 2,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Target market resolved explicitly from flight_plan.target_market_code=natural_gas.",
 "Some trends were not force-mapped to natural_gas due to weak alias confidence (broad geopolitics without explicit gas/LNG linkage).",
 "Prior state not provided (trend_state_memory absent); state_change computed as new_bullish under unknown prior."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
 }
}