• subject_area: Natural gas futures
  • target_market_code: natural_gas
  • ticker: null
  • regime_state: unstable
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: RF-NG-2
  • generated_at: 2026-03-18T12:00:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0
market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
natural_gas NG-B1 Near-term risk-premium remains biased upward for natural gas as LNG-linked geopolitical/security disruptions stay active (shipping/security, regional escalation narratives). 58 up accelerating 6h false 74
natural_gas NG-B2 24h balance of risk stays mildly supportive (upward skew) given ongoing Europe/Russia gas-security narratives and LNG supply-constraint/disruption chatter (QatarEnergy/Qatar Petroleum, Gazprom dispute context). 55 up stable 24h false 74
natural_gas NG-B3 Upside is fragile because direct U.S. natural gas fundamentals (weather-driven demand and confirmed storage trajectory) are not strongly evidenced in the admitted feed; stale/low-authority storage chatter could cap upside if confirmed. 52 mixed fading 24h false 74
{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-20260318-120000Z-natural_gas",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-18T12:00:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Natural gas futures",
 "market_code": "natural_gas"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 74,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "natural_gas",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "natural_gas"
 ],
 "regime_state": "unstable",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "NG-B1",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "claim": "Near-term risk-premium remains biased upward for natural gas as LNG-linked geopolitical/security disruptions stay active (shipping/security, regional escalation narratives).",
 "probability_pct": 58,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "export_lng",
 "pipeline_flows",
 "production_outages (risk-of, indirect)",
 "geopolitical escalation risk impacting LNG logistics"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "NG-B3"
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "NG-B2",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "claim": "24h balance of risk stays mildly supportive (upward skew) given ongoing Europe/Russia gas-security narratives and LNG supply-constraint/disruption chatter (QatarEnergy/Qatar Petroleum, Gazprom dispute context).",
 "probability_pct": 55,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "export_lng",
 "pipeline_flows",
 "storage (risk sentiment spillover)",
 "supply security narratives"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "NG-B3"
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "NG-B3",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "claim": "Upside is fragile because direct U.S. natural gas fundamentals (weather-driven demand and confirmed storage trajectory) are not strongly evidenced in the admitted feed; stale/low-authority storage chatter could cap upside if confirmed.",
 "probability_pct": 52,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "fading",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "storage",
 "weather_demand"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "NG-B1",
 "NG-B2"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "new_bullish",
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "freshness_confidence": "medium",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": true,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 74,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "NG-B1",
 "NG-B2"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag_id": "RF-NG-1",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "type": "narrative_whipsaw",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "Directional bias is being driven more by geopolitical/LNG-security narrative than by high-clarity weather/storage fundamentals."
 },
 {
 "flag_id": "RF-NG-2",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "type": "data_sparsity",
 "severity": "high",
 "detail": "Limited direct, high-trust, market-specific fundamentals (weather demand, storage change, pipeline nominations) present in admitted signals; fragility elevated."
 },
 {
 "flag_id": "RF-NG-3",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "type": "stale_context_overhang",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "Older/low-diversity inventory-related items exist; they are suppressed but can resurface as a counterweight if corroborated."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If LNG disruption/security headlines remain corroborated across multiple sources into the next cycle and no strong bearish storage/weather evidence appears."
 },
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "confidence": "high",
 "trigger_condition": "If very-recent (<=2h) escalation/de-escalation headlines hit major chokepoints/logistics or major LNG suppliers."
 },
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If confirmed storage data and/or warming-driven demand softness emerges and begins to contradict the risk-premium narrative."
 },
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "action": "stay_flat",
 "confidence": "low",
 "trigger_condition": "If the next 6h shows no corroboration and signals revert to low-volume, single-source VIP outliers only."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "natural_gas"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 6,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 18,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 6,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 34,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 78,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T13:00:00Z",
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T14:00:00Z",
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
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 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 33,
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T15:00:00Z",
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 "directional_score_signed": 7,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 19,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T16:00:00Z",
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 "directional_score_signed": 7,
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
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 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T17:00:00Z",
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T18:00:00Z",
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T19:00:00Z",
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 "directional_score_signed": 10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 22,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 10,
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 "contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T20:00:00Z",
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 "directional_score_signed": 10,
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 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
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 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T21:00:00Z",
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 "bullish_pressure_score": 23,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 39,
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
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 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T22:00:00Z",
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 "directional_score_signed": 11,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 23,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 11,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 38,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 78,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 24,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 12,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 40,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 77,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 24,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 12,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 39,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 78,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 13,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 25,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 13,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 41,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 77,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 16,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 28,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 16,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 45,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 75,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 15,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 27,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 15,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 42,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 76,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 16,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 28,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 16,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 44,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 75,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 34,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 46,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 34,
 "velocity_score": 18,
 "acceleration_score": 17,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 55,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 71,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 26,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 38,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 26,
 "velocity_score": -8,
 "acceleration_score": -26,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 49,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 73,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 24,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 36,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 24,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 6,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 48,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 73,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 29,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 41,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 29,
 "velocity_score": 5,
 "acceleration_score": 7,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 72,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 31,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 43,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 31,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": -3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 53,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 72,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 34,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": -9,
 "acceleration_score": -11,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 47,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 75,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 24,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 36,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 24,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 11,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 48,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 74,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 34,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 12,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 2,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 7,
 "cross_domain_merges": 2,
 "stale_suppression_count": 1,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Target scope resolved explicitly from flight_plan.target_market_code=natural_gas.",
 "No explicit contradiction objects provided; contradiction_ratio estimated from presence of weak/stale counter-signal (inventory/storage chatter) versus dominant LNG/geopolitical risk-premium signals.",
 "Prior market state not provided; state_change set to 'new_bullish' under unknown_prior fallback.",
 "Several strong signals are cross-energy-complex (geopolitics) and are only partially mapped to natural_gas via LNG/logistics spillover."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}