- subject_area: Natural gas futures
- target_market_code: natural_gas
- ticker: null
- regime_state: unstable
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: RF-NG-2
- generated_at: 2026-03-18T12:00:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
| market |
belief_id |
claim |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| natural_gas |
NG-B1 |
Near-term risk-premium remains biased upward for natural gas as LNG-linked geopolitical/security disruptions stay active (shipping/security, regional escalation narratives). |
58 |
up |
accelerating |
6h |
false |
74 |
| natural_gas |
NG-B2 |
24h balance of risk stays mildly supportive (upward skew) given ongoing Europe/Russia gas-security narratives and LNG supply-constraint/disruption chatter (QatarEnergy/Qatar Petroleum, Gazprom dispute context). |
55 |
up |
stable |
24h |
false |
74 |
| natural_gas |
NG-B3 |
Upside is fragile because direct U.S. natural gas fundamentals (weather-driven demand and confirmed storage trajectory) are not strongly evidenced in the admitted feed; stale/low-authority storage chatter could cap upside if confirmed. |
52 |
mixed |
fading |
24h |
false |
74 |
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-20260318-120000Z-natural_gas",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-18T12:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Natural gas futures",
"market_code": "natural_gas"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 74,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "natural_gas",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"natural_gas"
],
"regime_state": "unstable",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "NG-B1",
"market": "natural_gas",
"claim": "Near-term risk-premium remains biased upward for natural gas as LNG-linked geopolitical/security disruptions stay active (shipping/security, regional escalation narratives).",
"probability_pct": 58,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"export_lng",
"pipeline_flows",
"production_outages (risk-of, indirect)",
"geopolitical escalation risk impacting LNG logistics"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"NG-B3"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "NG-B2",
"market": "natural_gas",
"claim": "24h balance of risk stays mildly supportive (upward skew) given ongoing Europe/Russia gas-security narratives and LNG supply-constraint/disruption chatter (QatarEnergy/Qatar Petroleum, Gazprom dispute context).",
"probability_pct": 55,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"export_lng",
"pipeline_flows",
"storage (risk sentiment spillover)",
"supply security narratives"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"NG-B3"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "NG-B3",
"market": "natural_gas",
"claim": "Upside is fragile because direct U.S. natural gas fundamentals (weather-driven demand and confirmed storage trajectory) are not strongly evidenced in the admitted feed; stale/low-authority storage chatter could cap upside if confirmed.",
"probability_pct": 52,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"storage",
"weather_demand"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"NG-B1",
"NG-B2"
]
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"freshness_confidence": "medium",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": true,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 74,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"NG-B1",
"NG-B2"
]
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag_id": "RF-NG-1",
"market": "natural_gas",
"type": "narrative_whipsaw",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Directional bias is being driven more by geopolitical/LNG-security narrative than by high-clarity weather/storage fundamentals."
},
{
"flag_id": "RF-NG-2",
"market": "natural_gas",
"type": "data_sparsity",
"severity": "high",
"detail": "Limited direct, high-trust, market-specific fundamentals (weather demand, storage change, pipeline nominations) present in admitted signals; fragility elevated."
},
{
"flag_id": "RF-NG-3",
"market": "natural_gas",
"type": "stale_context_overhang",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Older/low-diversity inventory-related items exist; they are suppressed but can resurface as a counterweight if corroborated."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If LNG disruption/security headlines remain corroborated across multiple sources into the next cycle and no strong bearish storage/weather evidence appears."
},
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"confidence": "high",
"trigger_condition": "If very-recent (<=2h) escalation/de-escalation headlines hit major chokepoints/logistics or major LNG suppliers."
},
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If confirmed storage data and/or warming-driven demand softness emerges and begins to contradict the risk-premium narrative."
},
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"action": "stay_flat",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "If the next 6h shows no corroboration and signals revert to low-volume, single-source VIP outliers only."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"natural_gas"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 6,
"bullish_pressure_score": 18,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 6,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 34,
"fragility_score_0_100": 78,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 6,
"bullish_pressure_score": 18,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 6,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 33,
"fragility_score_0_100": 79,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 6,
"bullish_pressure_score": 18,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 6,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 33,
"fragility_score_0_100": 79,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 7,
"bullish_pressure_score": 19,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 7,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 35,
"fragility_score_0_100": 78,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 7,
"bullish_pressure_score": 19,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 7,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 34,
"fragility_score_0_100": 79,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 20,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 8,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 36,
"fragility_score_0_100": 78,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 20,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 8,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 35,
"fragility_score_0_100": 79,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 22,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 38,
"fragility_score_0_100": 77,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 22,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 37,
"fragility_score_0_100": 78,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 11,
"bullish_pressure_score": 23,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 11,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 39,
"fragility_score_0_100": 77,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 11,
"bullish_pressure_score": 23,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 11,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 38,
"fragility_score_0_100": 78,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 24,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 40,
"fragility_score_0_100": 77,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 24,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 39,
"fragility_score_0_100": 78,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 13,
"bullish_pressure_score": 25,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 13,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 41,
"fragility_score_0_100": 77,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 16,
"bullish_pressure_score": 28,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 16,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 15,
"bullish_pressure_score": 27,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 15,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 42,
"fragility_score_0_100": 76,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 16,
"bullish_pressure_score": 28,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 16,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 34,
"bullish_pressure_score": 46,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 34,
"velocity_score": 18,
"acceleration_score": 17,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 71,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 26,
"bullish_pressure_score": 38,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 26,
"velocity_score": -8,
"acceleration_score": -26,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 49,
"fragility_score_0_100": 73,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 36,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 73,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 29,
"bullish_pressure_score": 41,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 29,
"velocity_score": 5,
"acceleration_score": 7,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 72,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 31,
"bullish_pressure_score": 43,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 31,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 53,
"fragility_score_0_100": 72,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 34,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": -9,
"acceleration_score": -11,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 47,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 36,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 11,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 74,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 34,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 12,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 2,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 7,
"cross_domain_merges": 2,
"stale_suppression_count": 1,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Target scope resolved explicitly from flight_plan.target_market_code=natural_gas.",
"No explicit contradiction objects provided; contradiction_ratio estimated from presence of weak/stale counter-signal (inventory/storage chatter) versus dominant LNG/geopolitical risk-premium signals.",
"Prior market state not provided; state_change set to 'new_bullish' under unknown_prior fallback.",
"Several strong signals are cross-energy-complex (geopolitics) and are only partially mapped to natural_gas via LNG/logistics spillover."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}