Snapshot
- subject_area: Natural gas futures
- target_market_code: natural_gas
- ticker: ""
- regime_state: unstable
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: RF-NG-001 (data_sparsity, high)
- generated_at: 2026-03-18 06:00 UTC
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market |
belief_id |
claim |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| natural_gas |
B-NG-001 |
Natural gas futures retain an upside bias over the next 24h as LNG supply-disruption and broader geopolitical escalation headlines sustain a risk-premium bid. |
58 |
up |
stable |
24h |
false |
68 |
| natural_gas |
B-NG-002 |
Over the next 6h, the dominant feature is elevated volatility with a modest upside skew as late-cycle geopolitical updates cluster without clear fundamental confirmation (weather/storage). |
55 |
mixed |
fading |
6h |
false |
68 |
| natural_gas |
B-NG-003 |
Downside risk remains meaningful if US storage/inventory signals dominate the next cycle (bearish storage surprise narrative), compressing the risk premium. |
42 |
down |
stable |
24h |
false |
68 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-natural_gas-2026-03-18T06:00:00Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-18T06:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Natural gas futures",
"market_code": "natural_gas"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Mixed",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 61,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "natural_gas",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"natural_gas"
],
"regime_state": "unstable",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-NG-001",
"market": "natural_gas",
"claim": "Natural gas futures retain an upside bias over the next 24h as LNG supply-disruption and broader geopolitical escalation headlines sustain a risk-premium bid.",
"probability_pct": 58,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"export_lng",
"production_outages",
"pipeline_flows",
"geopolitical_risk_premium"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-NG-003"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-NG-002",
"market": "natural_gas",
"claim": "Over the next 6h, the dominant feature is elevated volatility with a modest upside skew as late-cycle geopolitical updates cluster without clear fundamental confirmation (weather/storage).",
"probability_pct": 55,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"geopolitical_risk_premium",
"export_lng"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-NG-003"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-NG-003",
"market": "natural_gas",
"claim": "Downside risk remains meaningful if US storage/inventory signals dominate the next cycle (bearish storage surprise narrative), compressing the risk premium.",
"probability_pct": 42,
"direction": "down",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"storage"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-NG-001",
"B-NG-002"
]
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "stable",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"conviction_score_0_100": 61,
"freshness_confidence": "medium",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-NG-001",
"B-NG-002",
"B-NG-003"
]
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag_id": "RF-NG-001",
"market": "natural_gas",
"type": "data_sparsity",
"severity": "high",
"summary": "Directional read is driven mainly by geopolitics/LNG disruption narratives; direct weather-demand and confirmed storage cadence are thin in the admitted set."
},
{
"flag_id": "RF-NG-002",
"market": "natural_gas",
"type": "narrative_whipsaw",
"severity": "medium",
"summary": "Multiple overlapping geopolitical threads raise headline churn risk; direction may flip quickly without new fundamentals."
},
{
"flag_id": "RF-NG-003",
"market": "natural_gas",
"type": "contradiction_moderate",
"severity": "medium",
"summary": "Some bearish storage/inventory signalling exists (low-density), partially offsetting bullish supply-risk narratives."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"trigger_condition": "If LNG disruption/geopolitical escalation items continue to update within the next 6\u201324h without strong bearish storage confirmation."
},
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"confidence": "high",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"trigger_condition": "If fresh geopolitical updates cluster (<=6h) across multiple sources, increasing gap-risk and intraday swings."
},
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"trigger_condition": "If new, higher-authority storage/inventory headlines turn decisively bearish and begin to dominate recency-weighted evidence."
},
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"confidence": "low",
"action": "stay_flat",
"trigger_condition": "If the next cycle shows no fresh confirmation (all major drivers >72h) and contradiction ratio rises."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"natural_gas"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 59,
"bearish_pressure_score": 41,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 40,
"bullish_pressure_score": 70,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 40,
"velocity_score": 22,
"acceleration_score": 22,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
"fresh_evidence_count": 6,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 68,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 34,
"bullish_pressure_score": 67,
"bearish_pressure_score": 33,
"net_sentiment_score": 34,
"velocity_score": -6,
"acceleration_score": -28,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.29,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 64,
"bearish_pressure_score": 36,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": -6,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.31,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 62,
"bearish_pressure_score": 38,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": -4,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.32,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 61,
"bearish_pressure_score": 39,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.33,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 67,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 60,
"bearish_pressure_score": 40,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.34,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 59,
"bearish_pressure_score": 41,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.34,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 16,
"bullish_pressure_score": 58,
"bearish_pressure_score": 42,
"net_sentiment_score": 16,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.35,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 71,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 14,
"bullish_pressure_score": 57,
"bearish_pressure_score": 43,
"net_sentiment_score": 14,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.36,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 72,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 55,
"bearish_pressure_score": 45,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": -4,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.38,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 74,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 6,
"bullish_pressure_score": 53,
"bearish_pressure_score": 47,
"net_sentiment_score": 6,
"velocity_score": -4,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.4,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 42,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 46,
"bearish_pressure_score": 54,
"net_sentiment_score": -8,
"velocity_score": -14,
"acceleration_score": -10,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.46,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 40,
"fragility_score_0_100": 78,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 4,
"bullish_pressure_score": 52,
"bearish_pressure_score": 48,
"net_sentiment_score": 4,
"velocity_score": 12,
"acceleration_score": 26,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.41,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 41,
"fragility_score_0_100": 76,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 54,
"bearish_pressure_score": 46,
"net_sentiment_score": 8,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": -8,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.38,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 74,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 55,
"bearish_pressure_score": 45,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.36,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 73,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 56,
"bearish_pressure_score": 44,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.35,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 47,
"fragility_score_0_100": 72,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 14,
"bullish_pressure_score": 57,
"bearish_pressure_score": 43,
"net_sentiment_score": 14,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.34,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 49,
"fragility_score_0_100": 71,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 16,
"bullish_pressure_score": 58,
"bearish_pressure_score": 42,
"net_sentiment_score": 16,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.33,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 59,
"bearish_pressure_score": 41,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.32,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 69,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 26,
"bullish_pressure_score": 63,
"bearish_pressure_score": 37,
"net_sentiment_score": 26,
"velocity_score": 8,
"acceleration_score": 6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.31,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 67,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 61,
"bearish_pressure_score": 39,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": -4,
"acceleration_score": -12,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.33,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 60,
"bearish_pressure_score": 40,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.34,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 69,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 62,
"bearish_pressure_score": 38,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.33,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 40,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": -8,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 4,
"signal_regime": "weakening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 11,
"cross_domain_merges": 2,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"No explicit trend_physics/trend_state_memory provided in baton; used recency + narrative-driver mapping heuristics.",
"Weather-demand and confirmed storage cadence signals are sparse relative to geopolitical/LNG disruption narratives; conviction capped and fragility elevated.",
"Prior market state not provided; state_change computed assuming prior state = neutral_mixed."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}