Snapshot

  • subject_area: Natural gas futures
  • target_market_code: natural_gas
  • ticker:
  • regime_state: unstable
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: driver_coverage_gap (high)
  • generated_at: 2026-03-18 00:00 UTC
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
natural_gas B-NG-001 Near-term upside risk premium persists as LNG shipping/supply-disruption narratives remain active (export/LNG arena dominates available evidence). 62 up accelerating 6h false 74
natural_gas B-NG-002 Reversal/pullback risk is material if the disruption/escalation narrative de-escalates or fails to corroborate with fresh high-authority confirmations (thin coverage on core US weather/storage drivers). 48 down stable 24h false 74
natural_gas B-NG-003 Volatility remains elevated as the current information set is dominated by event-driven geopolitics/LNG logistics rather than slower-moving fundamentals. 68 mixed stable 24h false 74

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B|natural_gas|20260318T000000Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-18T00:00:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Natural gas futures",
 "market_code": "natural_gas"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Unstable",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 74,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "natural_gas",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "natural_gas"
 ],
 "regime_state": "unstable",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-NG-001",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "claim": "Near-term upside risk premium persists as LNG shipping/supply-disruption narratives remain active (export/LNG arena dominates available evidence).",
 "probability_pct": 62,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "export_lng",
 "pipeline_flows",
 "geopolitical_risk_premium"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-NG-002"
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-NG-002",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "claim": "Reversal/pullback risk is material if the disruption/escalation narrative de-escalates or fails to corroborate with fresh high-authority confirmations (thin coverage on core US weather/storage drivers).",
 "probability_pct": 48,
 "direction": "down",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "headline_deescalation_risk",
 "data_sparsity_weather_storage",
 "single_source_counter_signal_risk"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-NG-001"
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-NG-003",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "claim": "Volatility remains elevated as the current information set is dominated by event-driven geopolitics/LNG logistics rather than slower-moving fundamentals.",
 "probability_pct": 68,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "geopolitical_risk",
 "export_lng",
 "information_asymmetry_singletons"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": []
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "new_bullish",
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "freshness_confidence": "medium",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 74,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-NG-001",
 "B-NG-003"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag": "driver_coverage_gap",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "severity": "high",
 "detail": "Core arenas in flight plan (weather_demand, storage, production_outages) are not strongly represented in admitted evidence; signal is dominated by geopolitics/LNG logistics."
 },
 {
 "flag": "event_driven_whipsaw_risk",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "Geopolitical/LNG narratives can reverse quickly; treat directional edge as fragile despite fresh activity."
 },
 {
 "flag": "contradiction_present_low_depth",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "Minor counter-pressure from single-source gas-supply/security items increases reversal risk without providing decisive direction."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Further fresh, high-authority confirmation of LNG disruption/shipping constraints within the next 6\u201324h while no offsetting fundamentals emerge."
 },
 {
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "confidence": "high",
 "trigger_condition": "Any rapid de-escalation headlines or shipping-flow normalisation signals inside a 2\u20136h window (risk-on/risk-off whipsaw)."
 },
 {
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "A fresh opposing cluster appears (<=2h old) that credibly reduces disruption probability or highlights surplus/supply-security narratives with corroboration."
 },
 {
 "action": "stay_flat",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "confidence": "low",
 "trigger_condition": "If the next cycle adds weather/storage/production evidence that neutralises the LNG/geopolitical impulse (signal regime shifts to rangebound)."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "natural_gas"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 6,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 28,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 22,
 "net_sentiment_score": 6,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 34,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 76,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 7,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 29,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 22,
 "net_sentiment_score": 7,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 35,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 76,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 6,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 28,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 22,
 "net_sentiment_score": 6,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 34,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 77,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 8,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 30,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 22,
 "net_sentiment_score": 8,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 36,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 77,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 9,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 31,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 22,
 "net_sentiment_score": 9,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 37,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 77,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 32,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 22,
 "net_sentiment_score": 10,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 38,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 77,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 11,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 33,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 22,
 "net_sentiment_score": 11,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 39,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 77,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 34,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 22,
 "net_sentiment_score": 12,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 40,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 77,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 13,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 35,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 22,
 "net_sentiment_score": 13,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 41,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 77,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 34,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 22,
 "net_sentiment_score": 12,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 40,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 78,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 14,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 36,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 22,
 "net_sentiment_score": 14,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 42,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 78,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 15,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 37,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 22,
 "net_sentiment_score": 15,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 43,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 78,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 16,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 38,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 22,
 "net_sentiment_score": 16,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 44,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 78,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 17,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 39,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 22,
 "net_sentiment_score": 17,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 45,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 78,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 16,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 38,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 22,
 "net_sentiment_score": 16,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.27,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 44,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 79,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 40,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 22,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.27,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 46,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 79,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 19,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 41,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 22,
 "net_sentiment_score": 19,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 47,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 79,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 44,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 24,
 "net_sentiment_score": 20,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.29,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 50,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 78,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 46,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 24,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 77,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 23,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 47,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 24,
 "net_sentiment_score": 23,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 53,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 77,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 24,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 48,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 24,
 "net_sentiment_score": 24,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.31,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 76,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 25,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 49,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 24,
 "net_sentiment_score": 25,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.31,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 55,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 75,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 28,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 52,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 24,
 "net_sentiment_score": 28,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.32,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 57,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 74,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 32,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 56,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 24,
 "net_sentiment_score": 32,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.33,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 74,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 32,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 4,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 4,
 "cross_domain_merges": 1,
 "stale_suppression_count": 1,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "v2 physics fields (trend_physics/trend_state_memory) not present in input; used recency proxies (evidence_recency_proxy, temporal_profile, velocity_hint) for conservative synthesis.",
 "Directional inference is constrained to natural_gas and is primarily driven by LNG disruption/logistics + pipeline/geopolitical risk narratives; weather/storage/production signals are sparse."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}