Snapshot
- subject_area: Natural gas futures
- target_market_code: natural_gas
- ticker:
- regime_state: unstable
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: driver_coverage_gap (high)
- generated_at: 2026-03-18 00:00 UTC
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market |
belief_id |
claim |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| natural_gas |
B-NG-001 |
Near-term upside risk premium persists as LNG shipping/supply-disruption narratives remain active (export/LNG arena dominates available evidence). |
62 |
up |
accelerating |
6h |
false |
74 |
| natural_gas |
B-NG-002 |
Reversal/pullback risk is material if the disruption/escalation narrative de-escalates or fails to corroborate with fresh high-authority confirmations (thin coverage on core US weather/storage drivers). |
48 |
down |
stable |
24h |
false |
74 |
| natural_gas |
B-NG-003 |
Volatility remains elevated as the current information set is dominated by event-driven geopolitics/LNG logistics rather than slower-moving fundamentals. |
68 |
mixed |
stable |
24h |
false |
74 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B|natural_gas|20260318T000000Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-18T00:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Natural gas futures",
"market_code": "natural_gas"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Unstable",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 74,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "natural_gas",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"natural_gas"
],
"regime_state": "unstable",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-NG-001",
"market": "natural_gas",
"claim": "Near-term upside risk premium persists as LNG shipping/supply-disruption narratives remain active (export/LNG arena dominates available evidence).",
"probability_pct": 62,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"export_lng",
"pipeline_flows",
"geopolitical_risk_premium"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-NG-002"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-NG-002",
"market": "natural_gas",
"claim": "Reversal/pullback risk is material if the disruption/escalation narrative de-escalates or fails to corroborate with fresh high-authority confirmations (thin coverage on core US weather/storage drivers).",
"probability_pct": 48,
"direction": "down",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"headline_deescalation_risk",
"data_sparsity_weather_storage",
"single_source_counter_signal_risk"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-NG-001"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-NG-003",
"market": "natural_gas",
"claim": "Volatility remains elevated as the current information set is dominated by event-driven geopolitics/LNG logistics rather than slower-moving fundamentals.",
"probability_pct": 68,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"geopolitical_risk",
"export_lng",
"information_asymmetry_singletons"
],
"contradicted_by": []
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"freshness_confidence": "medium",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 74,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-NG-001",
"B-NG-003"
]
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "driver_coverage_gap",
"market": "natural_gas",
"severity": "high",
"detail": "Core arenas in flight plan (weather_demand, storage, production_outages) are not strongly represented in admitted evidence; signal is dominated by geopolitics/LNG logistics."
},
{
"flag": "event_driven_whipsaw_risk",
"market": "natural_gas",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Geopolitical/LNG narratives can reverse quickly; treat directional edge as fragile despite fresh activity."
},
{
"flag": "contradiction_present_low_depth",
"market": "natural_gas",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Minor counter-pressure from single-source gas-supply/security items increases reversal risk without providing decisive direction."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"market": "natural_gas",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Further fresh, high-authority confirmation of LNG disruption/shipping constraints within the next 6\u201324h while no offsetting fundamentals emerge."
},
{
"action": "volatility_watch",
"market": "natural_gas",
"confidence": "high",
"trigger_condition": "Any rapid de-escalation headlines or shipping-flow normalisation signals inside a 2\u20136h window (risk-on/risk-off whipsaw)."
},
{
"action": "reversal_watch",
"market": "natural_gas",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "A fresh opposing cluster appears (<=2h old) that credibly reduces disruption probability or highlights surplus/supply-security narratives with corroboration."
},
{
"action": "stay_flat",
"market": "natural_gas",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "If the next cycle adds weather/storage/production evidence that neutralises the LNG/geopolitical impulse (signal regime shifts to rangebound)."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"natural_gas"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 6,
"bullish_pressure_score": 28,
"bearish_pressure_score": 22,
"net_sentiment_score": 6,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 34,
"fragility_score_0_100": 76,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 7,
"bullish_pressure_score": 29,
"bearish_pressure_score": 22,
"net_sentiment_score": 7,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 35,
"fragility_score_0_100": 76,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 6,
"bullish_pressure_score": 28,
"bearish_pressure_score": 22,
"net_sentiment_score": 6,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 34,
"fragility_score_0_100": 77,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 30,
"bearish_pressure_score": 22,
"net_sentiment_score": 8,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 36,
"fragility_score_0_100": 77,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 9,
"bullish_pressure_score": 31,
"bearish_pressure_score": 22,
"net_sentiment_score": 9,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 37,
"fragility_score_0_100": 77,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 32,
"bearish_pressure_score": 22,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 38,
"fragility_score_0_100": 77,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 11,
"bullish_pressure_score": 33,
"bearish_pressure_score": 22,
"net_sentiment_score": 11,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 39,
"fragility_score_0_100": 77,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 34,
"bearish_pressure_score": 22,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 40,
"fragility_score_0_100": 77,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 13,
"bullish_pressure_score": 35,
"bearish_pressure_score": 22,
"net_sentiment_score": 13,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 41,
"fragility_score_0_100": 77,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 34,
"bearish_pressure_score": 22,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 40,
"fragility_score_0_100": 78,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 14,
"bullish_pressure_score": 36,
"bearish_pressure_score": 22,
"net_sentiment_score": 14,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 42,
"fragility_score_0_100": 78,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 15,
"bullish_pressure_score": 37,
"bearish_pressure_score": 22,
"net_sentiment_score": 15,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 43,
"fragility_score_0_100": 78,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 16,
"bullish_pressure_score": 38,
"bearish_pressure_score": 22,
"net_sentiment_score": 16,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 78,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 17,
"bullish_pressure_score": 39,
"bearish_pressure_score": 22,
"net_sentiment_score": 17,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 78,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 16,
"bullish_pressure_score": 38,
"bearish_pressure_score": 22,
"net_sentiment_score": 16,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.27,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 79,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 40,
"bearish_pressure_score": 22,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.27,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 79,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 19,
"bullish_pressure_score": 41,
"bearish_pressure_score": 22,
"net_sentiment_score": 19,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 47,
"fragility_score_0_100": 79,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 44,
"bearish_pressure_score": 24,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.29,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 78,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 46,
"bearish_pressure_score": 24,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 77,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 23,
"bullish_pressure_score": 47,
"bearish_pressure_score": 24,
"net_sentiment_score": 23,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 53,
"fragility_score_0_100": 77,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 48,
"bearish_pressure_score": 24,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.31,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 76,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 25,
"bullish_pressure_score": 49,
"bearish_pressure_score": 24,
"net_sentiment_score": 25,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.31,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 52,
"bearish_pressure_score": 24,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.32,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 57,
"fragility_score_0_100": 74,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 32,
"bullish_pressure_score": 56,
"bearish_pressure_score": 24,
"net_sentiment_score": 32,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.33,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 74,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 32,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 4,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 4,
"cross_domain_merges": 1,
"stale_suppression_count": 1,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"v2 physics fields (trend_physics/trend_state_memory) not present in input; used recency proxies (evidence_recency_proxy, temporal_profile, velocity_hint) for conservative synthesis.",
"Directional inference is constrained to natural_gas and is primarily driven by LNG disruption/logistics + pipeline/geopolitical risk narratives; weather/storage/production signals are sparse."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}