Snapshot

  • subject_area: Lithium futures
  • target_market_code: lithium
  • ticker: lithium
  • regime_state: unstable
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: supply_demand_crosscurrents (severity: medium)
  • generated_at: 2026-03-18T16:30:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
lithium B-lithium-001 In the next 24h, lithium futures sentiment is biased mildly upward due to fresh EV adoption / battery capacity expansion narratives, but the upside is capped by simultaneous supply-expansion and extraction headlines. 56 up accelerating 24h false 74
lithium B-lithium-002 Supply-side expansion signals (extraction/resource development) are strong enough to keep lithium futures in a mixed-to-rangebound regime over the next 6–24h unless demand-side confirmations intensify. 60 mixed stable 24h false 74
lithium B-lithium-003 Reversal risk is elevated (but not triggered): a small number of very recent, higher-signal items could flip short-horizon sentiment quickly because the current stance is built on broad-but-noisy coverage and cross-currents. 52 mixed accelerating 6h false 74

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-2026-03-18T16:30:00Z-lithium",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-18T16:30:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Lithium futures",
 "market_code": "lithium"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Unstable",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 74,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "lithium",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "lithium"
 ],
 "regime_state": "unstable",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-lithium-001",
 "market": "lithium",
 "claim": "In the next 24h, lithium futures sentiment is biased mildly upward due to fresh EV adoption / battery capacity expansion narratives, but the upside is capped by simultaneous supply-expansion and extraction headlines.",
 "probability_pct": 56,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "ev_demand",
 "battery_supply_chain",
 "refining_capacity"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-lithium-002"
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-lithium-002",
 "market": "lithium",
 "claim": "Supply-side expansion signals (extraction/resource development) are strong enough to keep lithium futures in a mixed-to-rangebound regime over the next 6\u201324h unless demand-side confirmations intensify.",
 "probability_pct": 60,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "battery_supply_chain",
 "refining_capacity",
 "inventory"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-lithium-001"
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-lithium-003",
 "market": "lithium",
 "claim": "Reversal risk is elevated (but not triggered): a small number of very recent, higher-signal items could flip short-horizon sentiment quickly because the current stance is built on broad-but-noisy coverage and cross-currents.",
 "probability_pct": 52,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "china_policy",
 "inventory",
 "battery_supply_chain"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": []
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "new_bullish",
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "freshness_confidence": "medium",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": true,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 74,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-lithium-001",
 "B-lithium-003"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "flag": "supply_demand_crosscurrents",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "Demand-growth narratives and supply-expansion narratives are concurrently strong, increasing whipsaw risk."
 },
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "flag": "low_authority_share_overhang",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "A large share of supportive coverage appears to come from lower-tier / mixed sources, reducing robustness."
 },
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "flag": "echo_risk_vip_lane",
 "severity": "low",
 "detail": "Several VIP outliers are single-source (echo-risk), best treated as provisional."
 },
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "flag": "policy_uncertainty_overhang",
 "severity": "low",
 "detail": "Regulatory/policy-related items exist but are not sufficiently fresh/decisive; they can still amplify volatility."
 },
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "flag": "thin_price_linkage",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "Signals are narrative/sector-driven rather than directly tied to spot/futures prints or inventory releases in the input."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If fresh EV-demand confirmations continue to arrive within the next 6h without an accompanying jump in supply/inventory negatives."
 },
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "action": "watch_short_bias",
 "confidence": "low",
 "trigger_condition": "If the supply-expansion cluster accelerates (more high-trust items) and begins to dominate the most-recent buckets."
 },
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "action": "stay_flat",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If sentiment remains mixed (directional score within \u00b120) with sparse fresh evidence in the next cycle."
 },
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "confidence": "high",
 "trigger_condition": "If contradiction/whipsaw indicators rise (mixed drivers + low authority mix) while fresh evidence count increases."
 },
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If a high-trust opposing signal arrives within a 2h window and pushes the directional score across the \u00b120 boundary."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "lithium"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T16:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T17:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 55,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 45,
 "net_sentiment_score": 10,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 34,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 77,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T17:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T18:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 56,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 44,
 "net_sentiment_score": 12,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 35,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 77,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T18:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T19:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 11,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 56,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 45,
 "net_sentiment_score": 11,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 34,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 77,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T19:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T20:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 9,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 55,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 46,
 "net_sentiment_score": 9,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 33,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 78,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T20:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T21:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 8,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 54,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 46,
 "net_sentiment_score": 8,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 33,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 78,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T21:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T22:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 55,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 45,
 "net_sentiment_score": 10,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 34,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 77,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T22:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T23:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 14,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 57,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 43,
 "net_sentiment_score": 14,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 36,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 76,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T23:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T00:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 16,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 58,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 42,
 "net_sentiment_score": 16,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 37,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 76,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T00:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T01:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 59,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 41,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 38,
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T01:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T02:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 65,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 35,
 "net_sentiment_score": 30,
 "velocity_score": 12,
 "acceleration_score": 10,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 69,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T02:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T03:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 42,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 71,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 29,
 "net_sentiment_score": 42,
 "velocity_score": 12,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 65,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T03:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T04:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 26,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 63,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 37,
 "net_sentiment_score": 26,
 "velocity_score": -16,
 "acceleration_score": -28,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 48,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 70,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T04:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T05:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 60,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 40,
 "net_sentiment_score": 20,
 "velocity_score": -6,
 "acceleration_score": 10,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 41,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 73,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T05:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T06:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 14,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 57,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 43,
 "net_sentiment_score": 14,
 "velocity_score": -6,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 36,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 76,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T06:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T07:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 9,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 55,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 46,
 "net_sentiment_score": 9,
 "velocity_score": -5,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 33,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 78,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T07:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T08:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 61,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 39,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": 13,
 "acceleration_score": 18,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 45,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 72,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T08:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T09:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 59,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 41,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": -4,
 "acceleration_score": -17,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 38,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 75,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T09:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T10:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 56,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 44,
 "net_sentiment_score": 12,
 "velocity_score": -6,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 35,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 77,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T10:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T11:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 44,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 56,
 "net_sentiment_score": -12,
 "velocity_score": -24,
 "acceleration_score": -18,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 6,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 36,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 79,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T11:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T12:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 6,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 53,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 47,
 "net_sentiment_score": 6,
 "velocity_score": 18,
 "acceleration_score": 42,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 6,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 32,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 78,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T12:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T13:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 14,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 57,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 43,
 "net_sentiment_score": 14,
 "velocity_score": 8,
 "acceleration_score": -10,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 36,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 76,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T13:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T14:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 16,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 58,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 42,
 "net_sentiment_score": 16,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": -6,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 37,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 76,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T14:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T15:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 59,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 41,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 38,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 75,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T15:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T16:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 28,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 64,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 36,
 "net_sentiment_score": 28,
 "velocity_score": 10,
 "acceleration_score": 8,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 68,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 42,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": -12,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 10,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 12,
 "cross_domain_merges": 3,
 "stale_suppression_count": 4,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Target scope resolved explicitly to lithium.",
 "No explicit contradiction objects were provided; contradiction ratios are conservative heuristics driven by mixed-driver presence (demand vs supply narratives) and evidence sparsity in buckets.",
 "Multiple signals are persistence-heavy (weeks-old origins) but show recently updated evidence timestamps; stale suppression applied to cap overconfidence."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}