Snapshot
- subject_area: Lithium futures
- target_market_code: lithium
- ticker: lithium
- regime_state: unstable
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: supply_demand_crosscurrents (severity: medium)
- generated_at: 2026-03-18T16:30:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| lithium | B-lithium-001 | In the next 24h, lithium futures sentiment is biased mildly upward due to fresh EV adoption / battery capacity expansion narratives, but the upside is capped by simultaneous supply-expansion and extraction headlines. | 56 | up | accelerating | 24h | false | 74 |
| lithium | B-lithium-002 | Supply-side expansion signals (extraction/resource development) are strong enough to keep lithium futures in a mixed-to-rangebound regime over the next 6–24h unless demand-side confirmations intensify. | 60 | mixed | stable | 24h | false | 74 |
| lithium | B-lithium-003 | Reversal risk is elevated (but not triggered): a small number of very recent, higher-signal items could flip short-horizon sentiment quickly because the current stance is built on broad-but-noisy coverage and cross-currents. | 52 | mixed | accelerating | 6h | false | 74 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-2026-03-18T16:30:00Z-lithium",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-18T16:30:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Lithium futures",
"market_code": "lithium"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Unstable",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 74,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "lithium",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"lithium"
],
"regime_state": "unstable",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-lithium-001",
"market": "lithium",
"claim": "In the next 24h, lithium futures sentiment is biased mildly upward due to fresh EV adoption / battery capacity expansion narratives, but the upside is capped by simultaneous supply-expansion and extraction headlines.",
"probability_pct": 56,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"ev_demand",
"battery_supply_chain",
"refining_capacity"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-lithium-002"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-lithium-002",
"market": "lithium",
"claim": "Supply-side expansion signals (extraction/resource development) are strong enough to keep lithium futures in a mixed-to-rangebound regime over the next 6\u201324h unless demand-side confirmations intensify.",
"probability_pct": 60,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"battery_supply_chain",
"refining_capacity",
"inventory"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-lithium-001"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-lithium-003",
"market": "lithium",
"claim": "Reversal risk is elevated (but not triggered): a small number of very recent, higher-signal items could flip short-horizon sentiment quickly because the current stance is built on broad-but-noisy coverage and cross-currents.",
"probability_pct": 52,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"china_policy",
"inventory",
"battery_supply_chain"
],
"contradicted_by": []
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "lithium",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"freshness_confidence": "medium",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": true,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 74,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-lithium-001",
"B-lithium-003"
]
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"market": "lithium",
"flag": "supply_demand_crosscurrents",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Demand-growth narratives and supply-expansion narratives are concurrently strong, increasing whipsaw risk."
},
{
"market": "lithium",
"flag": "low_authority_share_overhang",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "A large share of supportive coverage appears to come from lower-tier / mixed sources, reducing robustness."
},
{
"market": "lithium",
"flag": "echo_risk_vip_lane",
"severity": "low",
"detail": "Several VIP outliers are single-source (echo-risk), best treated as provisional."
},
{
"market": "lithium",
"flag": "policy_uncertainty_overhang",
"severity": "low",
"detail": "Regulatory/policy-related items exist but are not sufficiently fresh/decisive; they can still amplify volatility."
},
{
"market": "lithium",
"flag": "thin_price_linkage",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Signals are narrative/sector-driven rather than directly tied to spot/futures prints or inventory releases in the input."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "lithium",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If fresh EV-demand confirmations continue to arrive within the next 6h without an accompanying jump in supply/inventory negatives."
},
{
"market": "lithium",
"action": "watch_short_bias",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "If the supply-expansion cluster accelerates (more high-trust items) and begins to dominate the most-recent buckets."
},
{
"market": "lithium",
"action": "stay_flat",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If sentiment remains mixed (directional score within \u00b120) with sparse fresh evidence in the next cycle."
},
{
"market": "lithium",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"confidence": "high",
"trigger_condition": "If contradiction/whipsaw indicators rise (mixed drivers + low authority mix) while fresh evidence count increases."
},
{
"market": "lithium",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If a high-trust opposing signal arrives within a 2h window and pushes the directional score across the \u00b120 boundary."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"lithium"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T16:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T17:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 55,
"bearish_pressure_score": 45,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 34,
"fragility_score_0_100": 77,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T17:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T18:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 56,
"bearish_pressure_score": 44,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 35,
"fragility_score_0_100": 77,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T18:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T19:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 11,
"bullish_pressure_score": 56,
"bearish_pressure_score": 45,
"net_sentiment_score": 11,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 34,
"fragility_score_0_100": 77,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T19:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T20:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 9,
"bullish_pressure_score": 55,
"bearish_pressure_score": 46,
"net_sentiment_score": 9,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 33,
"fragility_score_0_100": 78,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T20:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T21:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 54,
"bearish_pressure_score": 46,
"net_sentiment_score": 8,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 33,
"fragility_score_0_100": 78,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T21:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T22:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 55,
"bearish_pressure_score": 45,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 34,
"fragility_score_0_100": 77,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T22:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T23:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 14,
"bullish_pressure_score": 57,
"bearish_pressure_score": 43,
"net_sentiment_score": 14,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 36,
"fragility_score_0_100": 76,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T23:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T00:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 16,
"bullish_pressure_score": 58,
"bearish_pressure_score": 42,
"net_sentiment_score": 16,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 37,
"fragility_score_0_100": 76,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T00:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T01:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 59,
"bearish_pressure_score": 41,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 38,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T01:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T02:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 65,
"bearish_pressure_score": 35,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 12,
"acceleration_score": 10,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 69,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T02:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T03:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 42,
"bullish_pressure_score": 71,
"bearish_pressure_score": 29,
"net_sentiment_score": 42,
"velocity_score": 12,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 65,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T03:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T04:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 26,
"bullish_pressure_score": 63,
"bearish_pressure_score": 37,
"net_sentiment_score": 26,
"velocity_score": -16,
"acceleration_score": -28,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T04:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T05:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 60,
"bearish_pressure_score": 40,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": -6,
"acceleration_score": 10,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 41,
"fragility_score_0_100": 73,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T05:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T06:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 14,
"bullish_pressure_score": 57,
"bearish_pressure_score": 43,
"net_sentiment_score": 14,
"velocity_score": -6,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 36,
"fragility_score_0_100": 76,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T06:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T07:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 9,
"bullish_pressure_score": 55,
"bearish_pressure_score": 46,
"net_sentiment_score": 9,
"velocity_score": -5,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 33,
"fragility_score_0_100": 78,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T07:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T08:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 61,
"bearish_pressure_score": 39,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 13,
"acceleration_score": 18,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 72,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T08:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T09:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 59,
"bearish_pressure_score": 41,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": -4,
"acceleration_score": -17,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 38,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T09:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T10:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 56,
"bearish_pressure_score": 44,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": -6,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 35,
"fragility_score_0_100": 77,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T10:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T11:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 44,
"bearish_pressure_score": 56,
"net_sentiment_score": -12,
"velocity_score": -24,
"acceleration_score": -18,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 36,
"fragility_score_0_100": 79,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T11:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T12:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 6,
"bullish_pressure_score": 53,
"bearish_pressure_score": 47,
"net_sentiment_score": 6,
"velocity_score": 18,
"acceleration_score": 42,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 32,
"fragility_score_0_100": 78,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T12:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T13:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 14,
"bullish_pressure_score": 57,
"bearish_pressure_score": 43,
"net_sentiment_score": 14,
"velocity_score": 8,
"acceleration_score": -10,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 36,
"fragility_score_0_100": 76,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T13:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T14:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 16,
"bullish_pressure_score": 58,
"bearish_pressure_score": 42,
"net_sentiment_score": 16,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 37,
"fragility_score_0_100": 76,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T14:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T15:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 59,
"bearish_pressure_score": 41,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 38,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T15:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T16:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 64,
"bearish_pressure_score": 36,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": 10,
"acceleration_score": 8,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 42,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": -12,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 10,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 12,
"cross_domain_merges": 3,
"stale_suppression_count": 4,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Target scope resolved explicitly to lithium.",
"No explicit contradiction objects were provided; contradiction ratios are conservative heuristics driven by mixed-driver presence (demand vs supply narratives) and evidence sparsity in buckets.",
"Multiple signals are persistence-heavy (weeks-old origins) but show recently updated evidence timestamps; stale suppression applied to cap overconfidence."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}