Snapshot
- subject_area: Lithium futures
- target_market_code: lithium
- ticker: lithium
- regime_state: unstable
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: RF-LI-001 (stale_context_overhang, medium)
- generated_at: 2026-03-18T12:00:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| lithium | B-LI-001 | Near-term lithium price pressure skews upward as EV adoption and battery manufacturing capacity themes remain in late-surge mode, supporting demand expectations. | 60 | up | accelerating | 24h | false | 62 |
| lithium | B-LI-002 | Supply-side expansion / project-development narratives raise a cap on upside and keep downside tail risk present (higher supply availability expectations). | 55 | mixed | stable | 24h | false | 62 |
| lithium | B-LI-003 | Regulatory/policy headwinds remain a secondary drag risk for EV adoption narratives, potentially softening incremental lithium demand expectations if they intensify. | 40 | down | fading | 6h | false | 62 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{ "workflow_6B_CIS_output": { "snapshot_id": "CIS6B-20260318T120000Z-lithium", "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-18T12:00:00Z", "primary_asset_focus": { "name": "Lithium futures", "market_code": "lithium" }, "headline_sentiment_word": "Unstable", "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 58, "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 62, "commodity_registry": [ "crude_oil", "gold", "natural_gas", "copper", "silver", "wheat", "corn", "uranium", "lithium", "coffee" ], "target_market_code": "lithium", "target_resolution_source": "explicit", "scope_mode": "single_market", "analyzed_markets": [ "lithium" ], "regime_state": "unstable", "beliefs": [ { "belief_id": "B-LI-001", "market": "lithium", "claim": "Near-term lithium price pressure skews upward as EV adoption and battery manufacturing capacity themes remain in late-surge mode, supporting demand expectations.", "probability_pct": 60, "direction": "up", "velocity": "accelerating", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "EV adoption / demand reinforcement (Tesla / broader EV adoption trend)", "Battery manufacturing capacity expansion (CATL capacity theme)", "Battery chemistry innovation cadence (Samsung SDI / peers) sustaining sector investment tone" ], "contradicted_by": [ "B-LI-002", "B-LI-003" ] }, { "belief_id": "B-LI-002", "market": "lithium", "claim": "Supply-side expansion / project-development narratives raise a cap on upside and keep downside tail risk present (higher supply availability expectations).", "probability_pct": 55, "direction": "mixed", "velocity": "stable", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "Lithium extraction / resource development themes (Albemarle; Samsung resource development; additional project headlines)", "Resource expansion signals (e.g., Exar / Lithium Argentina theme; other single-source project items)" ], "contradicted_by": [ "B-LI-001" ] }, { "belief_id": "B-LI-003", "market": "lithium", "claim": "Regulatory/policy headwinds remain a secondary drag risk for EV adoption narratives, potentially softening incremental lithium demand expectations if they intensify.", "probability_pct": 40, "direction": "down", "velocity": "fading", "horizon": "6h", "drivers": [ "Regulatory risk anomaly signals tied to EV adoption/targets and enforcement noise (single-source, older)" ], "contradicted_by": [ "B-LI-001" ] } ], "market_state_table": [ { "market": "lithium", "directional_state": "bullish", "momentum_state": "strengthening", "reversal_risk": "medium", "state_change": "new_bullish", "conviction_score_0_100": 58, "freshness_confidence": "medium", "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional", "stale_suppression_applied": false, "thesis_kill_switch": false, "late_breaking_alert": false, "fragility_score_0_100": 62, "supporting_belief_ids": [ "B-LI-001", "B-LI-002", "B-LI-003" ] } ], "risk_flags": [ { "flag_id": "RF-LI-001", "market": "lithium", "type": "stale_context_overhang", "severity": "medium", "detail": "A meaningful portion of the supply/project/regulatory context is older (>72h in parts) and may overhang interpretation; demand-side late-surge is fresher." }, { "flag_id": "RF-LI-002", "market": "lithium", "type": "data_authority_mix", "severity": "medium", "detail": "Evidence mix is skewed toward lower-authority domains across multiple themes, reducing confidence despite high narrative reinforcement." }, { "flag_id": "RF-LI-003", "market": "lithium", "type": "narrative_whipsaw", "severity": "medium", "detail": "Demand-boost narratives (EV adoption/capacity) coexist with supply expansion/project development narratives, elevating reversal risk if one side receives fresh confirmation." } ], "candidate_actions": [ { "market": "lithium", "action": "watch_long_bias", "confidence": "medium", "trigger_condition": "Maintain bullish bias while hourly directional score remains >= +20 and fresh demand-side signals continue to print within the last 24h." }, { "market": "lithium", "action": "reversal_watch", "confidence": "medium", "trigger_condition": "Escalate if fresh (<= 6h) supply-side expansion or regulatory negative signals materially increase contradiction ratio and push directional score below +20." }, { "market": "lithium", "action": "volatility_watch", "confidence": "medium", "trigger_condition": "Expect choppiness while contradiction ratio stays elevated (~0.30+) and the market alternates between demand-up and supply-up narratives." }, { "market": "lithium", "action": "stay_flat", "confidence": "low", "trigger_condition": "Only if directional score enters (-20, +20) with no fresh evidence for 12h+ (signal fade)." } ], "paper_trade_signal_pack": { "bullish_markets": [ "lithium" ], "bearish_markets": [], "neutral_mixed_markets": [], "high_reversal_risk_markets": [] }, "signal_timeseries": { "resolution": "1h", "lookback_hours": 24, "bucket_timezone": "UTC", "buckets": [ { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T12:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T13:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 6, "bullish_pressure_score": 28, "bearish_pressure_score": 22, "net_sentiment_score": 6, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.24, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 34, "fragility_score_0_100": 64, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T13:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T14:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 7, "bullish_pressure_score": 29, "bearish_pressure_score": 22, "net_sentiment_score": 7, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.24, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 35, "fragility_score_0_100": 64, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T14:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T15:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 8, "bullish_pressure_score": 30, "bearish_pressure_score": 22, "net_sentiment_score": 8, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.25, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 35, "fragility_score_0_100": 64, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T15:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T16:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 8, "bullish_pressure_score": 30, "bearish_pressure_score": 22, "net_sentiment_score": 8, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.25, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 35, "fragility_score_0_100": 65, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T16:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T17:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 9, "bullish_pressure_score": 31, "bearish_pressure_score": 22, "net_sentiment_score": 9, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.25, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 36, "fragility_score_0_100": 65, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T17:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T18:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 10, "bullish_pressure_score": 32, "bearish_pressure_score": 22, "net_sentiment_score": 10, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.26, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 38, "fragility_score_0_100": 64, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T18:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T19:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 9, "bullish_pressure_score": 31, "bearish_pressure_score": 22, "net_sentiment_score": 9, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": -2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.27, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 5, "conviction_score_0_100": 36, "fragility_score_0_100": 66, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T19:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T20:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 10, "bullish_pressure_score": 32, "bearish_pressure_score": 22, "net_sentiment_score": 10, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.27, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 5, "conviction_score_0_100": 36, "fragility_score_0_100": 66, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T20:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T21:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 11, "bullish_pressure_score": 33, "bearish_pressure_score": 22, "net_sentiment_score": 11, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.27, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 5, "conviction_score_0_100": 37, "fragility_score_0_100": 66, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T21:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T22:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 11, "bullish_pressure_score": 33, "bearish_pressure_score": 22, "net_sentiment_score": 11, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.28, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 5, "conviction_score_0_100": 37, "fragility_score_0_100": 66, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T22:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T23:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 12, "bullish_pressure_score": 34, "bearish_pressure_score": 22, "net_sentiment_score": 12, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.28, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 5, "conviction_score_0_100": 38, "fragility_score_0_100": 65, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T23:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T00:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 13, "bullish_pressure_score": 35, "bearish_pressure_score": 22, "net_sentiment_score": 13, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.28, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 5, "conviction_score_0_100": 39, "fragility_score_0_100": 65, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T00:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T01:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 15, "bullish_pressure_score": 37, "bearish_pressure_score": 22, "net_sentiment_score": 15, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.29, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 5, "conviction_score_0_100": 41, "fragility_score_0_100": 65, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T01:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T02:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 18, "bullish_pressure_score": 40, "bearish_pressure_score": 22, "net_sentiment_score": 18, "velocity_score": 3, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.3, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 5, "conviction_score_0_100": 44, "fragility_score_0_100": 64, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T02:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T03:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 22, "bullish_pressure_score": 48, "bearish_pressure_score": 26, "net_sentiment_score": 22, "velocity_score": 4, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.31, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 5, "conviction_score_0_100": 50, "fragility_score_0_100": 62, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T03:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T04:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 26, "bullish_pressure_score": 52, "bearish_pressure_score": 26, "net_sentiment_score": 26, "velocity_score": 4, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.32, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 5, "conviction_score_0_100": 53, "fragility_score_0_100": 61, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T04:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T05:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 30, "bullish_pressure_score": 58, "bearish_pressure_score": 28, "net_sentiment_score": 30, "velocity_score": 4, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.33, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 5, "conviction_score_0_100": 56, "fragility_score_0_100": 61, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T05:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T06:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 35, "bullish_pressure_score": 66, "bearish_pressure_score": 31, "net_sentiment_score": 35, "velocity_score": 5, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.34, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 60, "fragility_score_0_100": 60, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T06:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T07:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 32, "bullish_pressure_score": 62, "bearish_pressure_score": 30, "net_sentiment_score": 32, "velocity_score": -3, "acceleration_score": -8, "contradiction_ratio": 0.35, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 58, "fragility_score_0_100": 62, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T07:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T08:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 30, "bullish_pressure_score": 60, "bearish_pressure_score": 30, "net_sentiment_score": 30, "velocity_score": -2, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.35, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 56, "fragility_score_0_100": 62, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T08:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T09:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 29, "bullish_pressure_score": 59, "bearish_pressure_score": 30, "net_sentiment_score": 29, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.34, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 55, "fragility_score_0_100": 62, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T09:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T10:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 29, "bullish_pressure_score": 59, "bearish_pressure_score": 30, "net_sentiment_score": 29, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.34, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 55, "fragility_score_0_100": 62, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T10:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T11:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 28, "bullish_pressure_score": 58, "bearish_pressure_score": 30, "net_sentiment_score": 28, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.33, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 54, "fragility_score_0_100": 63, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T11:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T12:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 28, "bullish_pressure_score": 58, "bearish_pressure_score": 30, "net_sentiment_score": 28, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.33, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 54, "fragility_score_0_100": 63, "dominant_state": "bullish" } ] }, "recent_half_hour_overlay": { "enabled": false, "resolution": "30m", "lookback_hours": 6, "buckets": [] }, "summary": { "timeseries_peak_bullish": 35, "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0, "latest_inflection_direction": "down", "latest_inflection_strength": 4, "signal_regime": "weakening_bullish" } }, "diagnostics": { "trends_seen": 12, "trends_admitted": 7, "cross_domain_merges": 2, "stale_suppression_count": 0, "reversal_flags_count": 1, "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0, "kill_switch_markets_count": 0, "timeseries_bucket_count": 24, "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0, "target_market_custom": false, "target_market_unresolved": false, "input_gate_degraded": false, "notes": [ "Target market resolved explicitly from flight_plan.target_market_code=lithium.", "No explicit per-signal v2 trend_physics/trend_state_memory present; used timestamp recency proxies, velocity_hint, and temporal_profile (late_surge) as acceleration surrogates.", "No explicit contradiction objects provided; contradiction_ratio reflects mixed driver composition (demand-up vs supply-up) rather than direct source-level contradictions.", "Late-breaking invalidation sentinel not triggered (no opposing signal observed within <=2h of snapshot)." ] }, "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B" }