Snapshot
- subject_area: Lithium futures
- target_market_code: lithium
- ticker: ""
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: data_quality_echo_risk
- generated_at: 2026-03-18T12:00:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| lithium | B-LI-001 | Near-term lithium demand narrative is dominated by fresh EV adoption + battery manufacturing scale-up signals; price bias is upward over the next 24h unless contradicted by policy shocks. | 66 | up | accelerating | 24h | false | 55 |
| lithium | B-LI-002 | Supply-side development headlines (extraction/resource development) create an offsetting overhang that can cap upside and reduce follow-through vs purely demand-driven rallies. | 58 | mixed | stable | 24h | false | 55 |
| lithium | B-LI-003 | Regulatory/legal noise around EV targets and enforcement can trigger short-horizon pullbacks even while the medium narrative remains constructive. | 34 | down | stable | 6h | false | 55 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{ "workflow_6B_CIS_output": { "snapshot_id": "cis_20260318T120000Z_lithium_6B_v1", "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-18T12:00:00Z", "primary_asset_focus": { "name": "Lithium futures", "market_code": "lithium" }, "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish", "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 61, "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 55, "commodity_registry": [ "crude_oil", "gold", "natural_gas", "copper", "silver", "wheat", "corn", "uranium", "lithium", "coffee" ], "target_market_code": "lithium", "target_resolution_source": "explicit", "scope_mode": "single_market", "analyzed_markets": [ "lithium" ], "regime_state": "tightening", "beliefs": [ { "belief_id": "B-LI-001", "market": "lithium", "claim": "Near-term lithium demand narrative is dominated by fresh EV adoption + battery manufacturing scale-up signals; price bias is upward over the next 24h unless contradicted by policy shocks.", "probability_pct": 66, "direction": "up", "velocity": "accelerating", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "ev_demand", "battery_supply_chain" ], "contradicted_by": [ "B-LI-003", "B-LI-002" ] }, { "belief_id": "B-LI-002", "market": "lithium", "claim": "Supply-side development headlines (extraction/resource development) create an offsetting overhang that can cap upside and reduce follow-through vs purely demand-driven rallies.", "probability_pct": 58, "direction": "mixed", "velocity": "stable", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "battery_supply_chain", "refining_capacity" ], "contradicted_by": [ "B-LI-001" ] }, { "belief_id": "B-LI-003", "market": "lithium", "claim": "Regulatory/legal noise around EV targets and enforcement can trigger short-horizon pullbacks even while the medium narrative remains constructive.", "probability_pct": 34, "direction": "down", "velocity": "stable", "horizon": "6h", "drivers": [ "china_policy", "ev_demand" ], "contradicted_by": [ "B-LI-001" ] } ], "market_state_table": [ { "market": "lithium", "directional_state": "bullish", "momentum_state": "strengthening", "reversal_risk": "medium", "state_change": "unchanged", "conviction_score_0_100": 61, "freshness_confidence": "medium", "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional", "stale_suppression_applied": false, "thesis_kill_switch": false, "late_breaking_alert": false, "fragility_score_0_100": 55, "supporting_belief_ids": [ "B-LI-001", "B-LI-002", "B-LI-003" ] } ], "risk_flags": [ { "risk_flag_id": "RF-LI-001", "market": "lithium", "flag": "data_quality_echo_risk", "severity": "medium", "details": "Several influential inputs include high low-authority share and single-source VIP items; conviction is capped despite strong recency-weighted demand signals." }, { "risk_flag_id": "RF-LI-002", "market": "lithium", "flag": "narrative_whipsaw_risk", "severity": "medium", "details": "Demand-acceleration signals coexist with supply-development headlines and sporadic regulatory negatives; reversal risk elevated to medium." } ], "candidate_actions": [ { "market": "lithium", "action": "watch_long_bias", "confidence": "medium", "trigger_condition": "If next 6h adds fresh (<=6h) demand-side confirmations without a similarly fresh high-authority opposing policy/supply shock." }, { "market": "lithium", "action": "volatility_watch", "confidence": "medium", "trigger_condition": "If a late-breaking opposing signal (<=2h) arrives from Tier-A sources or contradiction ratio rises materially in the next cycle." }, { "market": "lithium", "action": "reversal_watch", "confidence": "low", "trigger_condition": "If bearish policy/regulatory signal density increases and net sentiment flips below neutral (directional_score_signed < -20) within 24h." }, { "market": "lithium", "action": "stay_flat", "confidence": "low", "trigger_condition": "If fresh evidence count collapses (near-zero) and signals revert to background-only (stale overhang dominates)." } ], "paper_trade_signal_pack": { "bullish_markets": [ "lithium" ], "bearish_markets": [], "neutral_mixed_markets": [], "high_reversal_risk_markets": [] }, "signal_timeseries": { 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"stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 0, "fragility_score_0_100": 75, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T09:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T10:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 35, "bullish_pressure_score": 67, "bearish_pressure_score": 32, "net_sentiment_score": 35, "velocity_score": 35, "acceleration_score": 35, "contradiction_ratio": 0.12, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 35, "fragility_score_0_100": 56, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T10:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T11:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 60, "bullish_pressure_score": 80, "bearish_pressure_score": 20, "net_sentiment_score": 60, "velocity_score": 25, "acceleration_score": -10, "contradiction_ratio": 0.18, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 55, "fragility_score_0_100": 48, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T11:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T12:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 60, "bullish_pressure_score": 80, "bearish_pressure_score": 20, "net_sentiment_score": 60, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": -25, "contradiction_ratio": 0.18, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 55, "fragility_score_0_100": 48, "dominant_state": "bullish" } ] }, "recent_half_hour_overlay": { "enabled": false, "resolution": "30m", "lookback_hours": 6, "buckets": [] }, "summary": { "timeseries_peak_bullish": 60, "timeseries_peak_bearish": -15, "latest_inflection_direction": "up", "latest_inflection_strength": 25, "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish" } }, "diagnostics": { "trends_seen": 12, "trends_admitted": 12, "cross_domain_merges": 3, "stale_suppression_count": 0, "reversal_flags_count": 1, "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0, "kill_switch_markets_count": 0, "timeseries_bucket_count": 24, "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0, "target_market_custom": false, "target_market_unresolved": false, "input_gate_degraded": false, "notes": [ "Target scope resolved explicitly from flight_plan.target_market_code=lithium.", "No trend_state_memory/prior market state provided; state_change reported as unchanged (unknown_prior).", "Late-breaking invalidation sentinel not triggered (no <=2h high-authority opposing shock detected in inputs).", "Timeseries is sparse and derived from latest-known per-signal timestamps available in 5B summary fields; buckets without assigned evidence are conservative (low conviction / high fragility)." ] }, "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B" }