Snapshot

  • subject_area: Corn futures
  • target_market_code: corn
  • ticker: null
  • regime_state: unstable
  • beliefs_count: 2
  • top_risk_flag: data_sparsity (high)
  • generated_at: 2026-03-18T21:15:19.717000Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
corn corn_belief_001 Near-term corn futures bias tilts upward on supply-risk narrative from higher fertilizer costs and disruption concerns, but evidence density is thin. 56 up accelerating 24h false 76
corn corn_belief_002 Ethanol policy/advocacy headlines modestly support corn demand expectations, but near-term price impact is uncertain without policy passage confirmation. 53 mixed stable 6h false 76

Data Dump (Machine Use) { "workflow_6B_CIS_output": { "snapshot_id": "cis_corn_20260318T211519Z", "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-18T21:15:19.717000Z", "primary_asset_focus": { "name": "Corn futures", "market_code": "corn" }, "headline_sentiment_word": "Mixed", "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 42, "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 76, "commodity_registry": [ "crude_oil", "gold", "natural_gas", "copper", "silver", "wheat", "corn", "uranium", "lithium", "coffee" ], "target_market_code": "corn", "target_resolution_source": "explicit", "scope_mode": "single_market", "analyzed_markets": [ "corn" ], "regime_state": "unstable", "beliefs": [ { "belief_id": "corn_belief_001", "market": "corn", "claim": "Near-term corn futures bias tilts upward on supply-risk narrative from higher fertilizer costs and disruption concerns, but evidence density is thin.", "probability_pct": 56, "direction": "up", "velocity": "accelerating", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "crop_conditions (input-cost shock via fertilizer pricing)", "planting_harvest (potential yield risk from reduced fertilizer application)", "weather (not observed in provided evidence; increases uncertainty)" ], "contradicted_by": [ "data_sparsity: no corroborating USDA/weather/export datapoints in provided trend feed" ] }, { "belief_id": "corn_belief_002", "market": "corn", "claim": "Ethanol policy/advocacy headlines modestly support corn demand expectations, but near-term price impact is uncertain without policy passage confirmation.", "probability_pct": 53, "direction": "mixed", "velocity": "stable", "horizon": "6h", "drivers": [ "ethanol_demand (policy support narrative: E15 / RFS / clean fuel credit discussions)" ], "contradicted_by": [ "policy_uncertainty: advocacy event is not a binding policy change" ] } ], "market_state_table": [ { "market": "corn", "directional_state": "bullish", "momentum_state": "strengthening", "reversal_risk": "medium", "state_change": "unchanged", "conviction_score_0_100": 42, "freshness_confidence": "medium", "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional", "stale_suppression_applied": false, "thesis_kill_switch": false, "late_breaking_alert": false, "fragility_score_0_100": 76, "supporting_belief_ids": [ "corn_belief_001", "corn_belief_002" ] } ], "risk_flags": [ { "flag": "data_sparsity", "severity": "high", "markets": [ "corn" ], "note": "workflow5B trend/physics inputs missing; only a small subset of news items available in this packet." }, { "flag": "geopolitical_supply_chain_shock_risk", "severity": "medium", "markets": [ "corn" ], "note": "Fertilizer/input-cost disruption narrative can whipsaw (policy/war escalation/de-escalation sensitivity)." }, { "flag": "policy_headline_uncertainty", "severity": "medium", "markets": [ "corn" ], "note": "Ethanol advocacy headlines are supportive but not equivalent to enacted/implemented policy." } ], "candidate_actions": [ { "market": "corn", "confidence": "medium", "trigger_condition": "If additional fresh evidence confirms tightening supply/yield risk (e.g., broader fertilizer shock confirmation or acreage/yield concern) without strong opposing demand-destruction signals.", "action_label": "watch_long_bias" }, { "market": "corn", "confidence": "high", "trigger_condition": "If contradiction increases (fresh opposing signals appear) or geopolitical headlines accelerate within the next 2\u20136 hours.", "action_label": "volatility_watch" }, { "market": "corn", "confidence": "medium", "trigger_condition": "If a high-trust opposing update arrives very recently (<=2h) that negates fertilizer/yield-risk or undermines ethanol demand expectations.", "action_label": "reversal_watch" } ], "paper_trade_signal_pack": { "bullish_markets": [ "corn" ], "bearish_markets": [], "neutral_mixed_markets": [], "high_reversal_risk_markets": [] }, "signal_timeseries": { "resolution": "1h", "lookback_hours": 24, "bucket_timezone": "UTC", "buckets": [ { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T22:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": 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"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T06:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 5, "fragility_score_0_100": 90, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T06:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T07:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 5, "fragility_score_0_100": 90, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T07:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T08:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 5, "fragility_score_0_100": 90, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T08:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T09:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 5, "fragility_score_0_100": 90, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T09:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T10:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 5, "fragility_score_0_100": 90, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T10:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T11:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 5, "fragility_score_0_100": 90, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T11:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T12:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 5, "fragility_score_0_100": 90, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T12:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T13:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 5, "fragility_score_0_100": 90, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T13:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T14:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 5, "fragility_score_0_100": 90, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T14:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T15:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, 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"fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 5, "fragility_score_0_100": 90, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T17:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T18:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 5, "fragility_score_0_100": 90, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T18:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T19:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 5, "fragility_score_0_100": 90, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T19:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T20:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 5, "fragility_score_0_100": 90, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T20:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T21:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 18, "bullish_pressure_score": 18, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 18, "velocity_score": 18, "acceleration_score": 18, "contradiction_ratio": 0.15, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 38, "fragility_score_0_100": 78, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T21:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T22:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 25, "bullish_pressure_score": 25, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 25, "velocity_score": 7, "acceleration_score": -11, "contradiction_ratio": 0.2, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 45, "fragility_score_0_100": 75, "dominant_state": "bullish" } ] }, "recent_half_hour_overlay": { "enabled": false, "resolution": "30m", "lookback_hours": 6, "buckets": [] }, "summary": { "timeseries_peak_bullish": 25, "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0, "latest_inflection_direction": "up", "latest_inflection_strength": 25, "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish" } }, "diagnostics": { "trends_seen": 0, "trends_admitted": 0, "cross_domain_merges": 1, "stale_suppression_count": 0, "reversal_flags_count": 0, "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0, "kill_switch_markets_count": 0, "timeseries_bucket_count": 24, "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0, "target_market_custom": false, "target_market_unresolved": false, "input_gate_degraded": true, "notes": [ "workflow5B_output missing (no trend_physics / consensus / staleness fields available).", "Used limited ingested news subset present in packet as light directional evidence (3 items).", "Prior state unavailable (no trend_state_memory); state_change set conservatively to 'unchanged'." ] }, "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B" }