Snapshot

  • subject_area: Copper futures
  • target_market_code: copper
  • ticker:
  • regime_state: unstable
  • beliefs_count: 4
  • top_risk_flag: stale_context_overhang
  • generated_at: 2026-03-18T23:00:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Unstable
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
copper B-001 Over the next 24h, copper futures sentiment remains mixed/unstable: structural electrification demand narratives support prices, but near-term policy/legal trade headlines and supply-expansion headlines add downside/volatility risk. 62 mixed stable 24h false 68
copper B-002 Near-term downside/pressure risk is elevated if trade-policy/legal developments tighten risk appetite or imply weaker industrial activity. 52 down accelerating 6h false 68
copper B-003 Medium/long-horizon supply-expansion headlines (e.g., permitting/land-swap progress and miner expansion plans) modestly cap bullish conviction in the near term (headline effect > immediate physical impact). 57 down stable 24h false 68
copper B-004 Electrification / grid-modernisation demand narratives remain a persistent supportive backdrop for copper, limiting follow-through on purely headline-driven dips unless corroborated by inventories/USD. 58 up fading 24h false 68

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "copper_HG_6B_2026-03-18T23:00:00Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-18T23:00:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Copper futures",
 "market_code": "copper"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Unstable",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 48,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 68,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "copper",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "copper"
 ],
 "regime_state": "unstable",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-001",
 "market": "copper",
 "claim": "Over the next 24h, copper futures sentiment remains mixed/unstable: structural electrification demand narratives support prices, but near-term policy/legal trade headlines and supply-expansion headlines add downside/volatility risk.",
 "probability_pct": 62,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "industrial_demand",
 "china_policy",
 "mine_supply",
 "usd_strength"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-002",
 "B-003"
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-002",
 "market": "copper",
 "claim": "Near-term downside/pressure risk is elevated if trade-policy/legal developments tighten risk appetite or imply weaker industrial activity.",
 "probability_pct": 52,
 "direction": "down",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "usd_strength",
 "china_policy",
 "industrial_demand"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-004"
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-003",
 "market": "copper",
 "claim": "Medium/long-horizon supply-expansion headlines (e.g., permitting/land-swap progress and miner expansion plans) modestly cap bullish conviction in the near term (headline effect > immediate physical impact).",
 "probability_pct": 57,
 "direction": "down",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "mine_supply"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-004"
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-004",
 "market": "copper",
 "claim": "Electrification / grid-modernisation demand narratives remain a persistent supportive backdrop for copper, limiting follow-through on purely headline-driven dips unless corroborated by inventories/USD.",
 "probability_pct": 58,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "fading",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "industrial_demand",
 "inventory"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-002",
 "B-003"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "directional_state": "neutral_mixed",
 "momentum_state": "weakening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "unchanged",
 "conviction_score_0_100": 48,
 "freshness_confidence": "medium",
 "catalyst_type": "unclear",
 "stale_suppression_applied": true,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 68,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-001",
 "B-002",
 "B-003",
 "B-004"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "risk_flag": "stale_context_overhang",
 "severity": "medium",
 "details": "Key supportive drivers are predominantly long-horizon (electrification/grid investment). For 6h/24h horizons this caps conviction and can produce whipsaws."
 },
 {
 "risk_flag": "narrative_whipsaw",
 "severity": "medium",
 "details": "Trade-policy/legal headline risk can swing risk appetite/FX expectations faster than physical copper fundamentals update."
 },
 {
 "risk_flag": "data_sparsity",
 "severity": "medium",
 "details": "Input emphasises thematic/news signals; limited direct inventory/spot-tightness/price-action evidence in the admitted set."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action": "stay_flat",
 "trigger_condition": "Maintain neutral stance while directional score remains inside [-20,+20] and contradiction remains elevated."
 },
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "confidence": "high",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "Escalate volatility watch if additional trade-policy/legal headlines arrive within the next 2-6h."
 },
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "Reversal watch if a fresh, higher-authority directional catalyst (inventories/USD shock or confirmed supply outage) pushes signed score beyond +/-20."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [
 "copper"
 ],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
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 ]
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 "velocity_score": 6,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.5,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 34,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 76,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T20:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 30,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -6,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.5,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 34,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 76,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T21:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 30,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.5,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 34,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 76,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T21:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 30,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.5,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 34,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 76,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T22:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 30,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.52,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 35,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 76,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T22:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -14,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 36,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 50,
 "net_sentiment_score": -14,
 "velocity_score": -14,
 "acceleration_score": -14,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.65,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 45,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 74,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 }
 ]
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 22,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": -18,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "down",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 18,
 "signal_regime": "mixed_flat"
 }
 }
}