• subject_area: Copper futures
  • target_market_code: copper
  • ticker: null
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: narrative_whipsaw (medium)
  • generated_at: 2026-03-18T14:30:34Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0
market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
copper B-copper-1 Copper futures retain an upside bias over the next 24h, driven by persistent electrification/grid-modernisation and EV infrastructure narratives supporting expected industrial demand. 62 up stable 24h false 57
copper B-copper-2 Near-term (6h) copper sentiment is supported by supply-chain/critical-minerals focus and ongoing energy-transition capex themes, but with fading momentum versus the earlier impulse. 56 up fading 6h false 57
copper B-copper-3 Reversal/volatility risk is elevated (but not dominant): very recent US legal/trade-policy anomaly signals can quickly shift macro sentiment even with a bullish structural backdrop. 44 mixed accelerating 24h false 57
{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-20260318T143034Z-copper",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-18T14:30:34Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Copper futures",
 "market_code": "copper"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 61,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "copper",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "copper"
 ],
 "regime_state": "tightening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-copper-1",
 "market": "copper",
 "claim": "Copper futures retain an upside bias over the next 24h, driven by persistent electrification/grid-modernisation and EV infrastructure narratives supporting expected industrial demand.",
 "probability_pct": 62,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "industrial_demand",
 "electric grid modernisation / renewable integration",
 "electric vehicle adoption / EV infrastructure buildout",
 "industrial policy and decarbonisation"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-copper-3"
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-copper-2",
 "market": "copper",
 "claim": "Near-term (6h) copper sentiment is supported by supply-chain/critical-minerals focus and ongoing energy-transition capex themes, but with fading momentum versus the earlier impulse.",
 "probability_pct": 56,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "fading",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "mine_supply (critical minerals, disruption risk)",
 "policy focus on strategic minerals / trade architecture",
 "network/infrastructure investment narratives"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-copper-3"
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-copper-3",
 "market": "copper",
 "claim": "Reversal/volatility risk is elevated (but not dominant): very recent US legal/trade-policy anomaly signals can quickly shift macro sentiment even with a bullish structural backdrop.",
 "probability_pct": 44,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "US trade-policy/legal uncertainty",
 "headline-driven risk (low corroboration)"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "High-consensus sustained energy-transition / infrastructure demand narrative (multiple trend clusters)"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "weakening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "new_bullish",
 "conviction_score_0_100": 61,
 "freshness_confidence": "medium",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-copper-1",
 "B-copper-2"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "flag": "narrative_whipsaw",
 "severity": "medium",
 "details": "Bullish structural narratives remain strong, but recent hours show sentiment fade; headline-risk could induce short-horizon swings."
 },
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "flag": "data_sparsity",
 "severity": "medium",
 "details": "Several fresh items are single-source VIP/risk objects; corroboration depth is uneven across drivers."
 },
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "flag": "contradiction_spike",
 "severity": "low",
 "details": "No explicit contradiction set provided; however, macro/legal trade-policy anomaly introduces mild opposing pressure late in the window."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If fresh multi-source confirmation continues in industrial-demand / grid-capex themes while opposing macro/legal risk remains uncorroborated."
 },
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If additional trade-policy/legal headlines appear within the next 6h (especially higher-authority / multi-source), raising contradiction and compressing conviction."
 },
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "confidence": "low",
 "trigger_condition": "If directional score turns negative in consecutive hourly buckets AND contradiction ratio rises materially (e.g., >0.30) on fresh evidence."
 },
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "action": "stay_flat",
 "confidence": "low",
 "trigger_condition": "If bullish pressure decays further (directional score falls below +20) while fragility remains elevated (>65)."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "copper"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T14:30:34Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T15:30:34Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 25,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 63,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 37,
 "net_sentiment_score": 25,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 8,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 42,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T15:30:34Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T16:30:34Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 65,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 35,
 "net_sentiment_score": 30,
 "velocity_score": 5,
 "acceleration_score": 5,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 7,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 45,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T16:30:34Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T17:30:34Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 25,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 63,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 37,
 "net_sentiment_score": 25,
 "velocity_score": -5,
 "acceleration_score": -10,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 8,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 42,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T17:30:34Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T18:30:34Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 25,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 63,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 37,
 "net_sentiment_score": 25,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 5,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 8,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 42,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T18:30:34Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T19:30:34Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 25,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 63,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 37,
 "net_sentiment_score": 25,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 8,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 42,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T19:30:34Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T20:30:34Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 65,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 35,
 "net_sentiment_score": 30,
 "velocity_score": 5,
 "acceleration_score": 5,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 7,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 45,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T20:30:34Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T21:30:34Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 25,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 63,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 37,
 "net_sentiment_score": 25,
 "velocity_score": -5,
 "acceleration_score": -10,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 8,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 42,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T21:30:34Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T22:30:34Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 25,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 63,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 37,
 "net_sentiment_score": 25,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 5,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 8,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 42,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T22:30:34Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T23:30:34Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 25,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 63,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 37,
 "net_sentiment_score": 25,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 8,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 42,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T23:30:34Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T00:30:34Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 25,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 63,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 37,
 "net_sentiment_score": 25,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 8,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 42,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T00:30:34Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T01:30:34Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 28,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 64,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 36,
 "net_sentiment_score": 28,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 7,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 44,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T01:30:34Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T02:30:34Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 60,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 40,
 "net_sentiment_score": 20,
 "velocity_score": -8,
 "acceleration_score": -11,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 6,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 38,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T02:30:34Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T03:30:34Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 65,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 35,
 "net_sentiment_score": 30,
 "velocity_score": 10,
 "acceleration_score": 18,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 8,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 45,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T03:30:34Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T04:30:34Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 35,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 68,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 32,
 "net_sentiment_score": 35,
 "velocity_score": 5,
 "acceleration_score": -5,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 8,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 50,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T04:30:34Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T05:30:34Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 50,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 75,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 25,
 "net_sentiment_score": 50,
 "velocity_score": 15,
 "acceleration_score": 10,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 6,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 45,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T05:30:34Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T06:30:34Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 35,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 68,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 32,
 "net_sentiment_score": 35,
 "velocity_score": -15,
 "acceleration_score": -30,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 8,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 50,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T06:30:34Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T07:30:34Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 45,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 73,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 27,
 "net_sentiment_score": 45,
 "velocity_score": 10,
 "acceleration_score": 25,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 7,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 48,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T07:30:34Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T08:30:34Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 55,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 78,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 22,
 "net_sentiment_score": 55,
 "velocity_score": 10,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 65,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 44,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T08:30:34Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T09:30:34Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 65,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 35,
 "net_sentiment_score": 30,
 "velocity_score": -25,
 "acceleration_score": -35,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 8,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 45,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T09:30:34Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T10:30:34Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 25,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 63,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 37,
 "net_sentiment_score": 25,
 "velocity_score": -5,
 "acceleration_score": 20,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 8,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 42,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T10:30:34Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T11:30:34Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 25,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 63,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 37,
 "net_sentiment_score": 25,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 5,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 8,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 42,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T11:30:34Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T12:30:34Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 25,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 63,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 37,
 "net_sentiment_score": 25,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 8,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 42,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T12:30:34Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T13:30:34Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 60,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 40,
 "net_sentiment_score": 20,
 "velocity_score": -5,
 "acceleration_score": -5,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 8,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 38,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T13:30:34Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T14:30:34Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 55,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 45,
 "net_sentiment_score": 10,
 "velocity_score": -10,
 "acceleration_score": -5,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 7,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 30,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 75,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 55,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 10,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "down",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 10,
 "signal_regime": "weakening_bullish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 12,
 "cross_domain_merges": 3,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Single-market scope enforced: analyzed_markets=['copper'].",
 "No explicit contradictions provided; contradiction_ratio is a conservative proxy based on mixed macro/legal pressure and uneven source authority mix.",
 "Prior market state not supplied; prior assumed neutral for state_change derivation (=> new_bullish).",
 "Input timestamps include items later than the flight-plan timestamp; snapshot timestamp set to latest observed signal time for recency-weighting consistency."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}