- subject_area: Copper futures
- target_market_code: copper
- ticker: null
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: narrative_whipsaw (medium)
- generated_at: 2026-03-18T14:30:34Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
| market |
belief_id |
claim |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| copper |
B-copper-1 |
Copper futures retain an upside bias over the next 24h, driven by persistent electrification/grid-modernisation and EV infrastructure narratives supporting expected industrial demand. |
62 |
up |
stable |
24h |
false |
57 |
| copper |
B-copper-2 |
Near-term (6h) copper sentiment is supported by supply-chain/critical-minerals focus and ongoing energy-transition capex themes, but with fading momentum versus the earlier impulse. |
56 |
up |
fading |
6h |
false |
57 |
| copper |
B-copper-3 |
Reversal/volatility risk is elevated (but not dominant): very recent US legal/trade-policy anomaly signals can quickly shift macro sentiment even with a bullish structural backdrop. |
44 |
mixed |
accelerating |
24h |
false |
57 |
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-20260318T143034Z-copper",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-18T14:30:34Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Copper futures",
"market_code": "copper"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 61,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "copper",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"copper"
],
"regime_state": "tightening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-copper-1",
"market": "copper",
"claim": "Copper futures retain an upside bias over the next 24h, driven by persistent electrification/grid-modernisation and EV infrastructure narratives supporting expected industrial demand.",
"probability_pct": 62,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"industrial_demand",
"electric grid modernisation / renewable integration",
"electric vehicle adoption / EV infrastructure buildout",
"industrial policy and decarbonisation"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-copper-3"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-copper-2",
"market": "copper",
"claim": "Near-term (6h) copper sentiment is supported by supply-chain/critical-minerals focus and ongoing energy-transition capex themes, but with fading momentum versus the earlier impulse.",
"probability_pct": 56,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"mine_supply (critical minerals, disruption risk)",
"policy focus on strategic minerals / trade architecture",
"network/infrastructure investment narratives"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-copper-3"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-copper-3",
"market": "copper",
"claim": "Reversal/volatility risk is elevated (but not dominant): very recent US legal/trade-policy anomaly signals can quickly shift macro sentiment even with a bullish structural backdrop.",
"probability_pct": 44,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"US trade-policy/legal uncertainty",
"headline-driven risk (low corroboration)"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"High-consensus sustained energy-transition / infrastructure demand narrative (multiple trend clusters)"
]
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "copper",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "weakening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"conviction_score_0_100": 61,
"freshness_confidence": "medium",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-copper-1",
"B-copper-2"
]
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"market": "copper",
"flag": "narrative_whipsaw",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "Bullish structural narratives remain strong, but recent hours show sentiment fade; headline-risk could induce short-horizon swings."
},
{
"market": "copper",
"flag": "data_sparsity",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "Several fresh items are single-source VIP/risk objects; corroboration depth is uneven across drivers."
},
{
"market": "copper",
"flag": "contradiction_spike",
"severity": "low",
"details": "No explicit contradiction set provided; however, macro/legal trade-policy anomaly introduces mild opposing pressure late in the window."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "copper",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If fresh multi-source confirmation continues in industrial-demand / grid-capex themes while opposing macro/legal risk remains uncorroborated."
},
{
"market": "copper",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If additional trade-policy/legal headlines appear within the next 6h (especially higher-authority / multi-source), raising contradiction and compressing conviction."
},
{
"market": "copper",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "If directional score turns negative in consecutive hourly buckets AND contradiction ratio rises materially (e.g., >0.30) on fresh evidence."
},
{
"market": "copper",
"action": "stay_flat",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "If bullish pressure decays further (directional score falls below +20) while fragility remains elevated (>65)."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"copper"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T14:30:34Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T15:30:34Z",
"directional_score_signed": 25,
"bullish_pressure_score": 63,
"bearish_pressure_score": 37,
"net_sentiment_score": 25,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 8,
"conviction_score_0_100": 42,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T15:30:34Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T16:30:34Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 65,
"bearish_pressure_score": 35,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 5,
"acceleration_score": 5,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 7,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T16:30:34Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T17:30:34Z",
"directional_score_signed": 25,
"bullish_pressure_score": 63,
"bearish_pressure_score": 37,
"net_sentiment_score": 25,
"velocity_score": -5,
"acceleration_score": -10,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 8,
"conviction_score_0_100": 42,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T17:30:34Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T18:30:34Z",
"directional_score_signed": 25,
"bullish_pressure_score": 63,
"bearish_pressure_score": 37,
"net_sentiment_score": 25,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 5,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 8,
"conviction_score_0_100": 42,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T18:30:34Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T19:30:34Z",
"directional_score_signed": 25,
"bullish_pressure_score": 63,
"bearish_pressure_score": 37,
"net_sentiment_score": 25,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 8,
"conviction_score_0_100": 42,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T19:30:34Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T20:30:34Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 65,
"bearish_pressure_score": 35,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 5,
"acceleration_score": 5,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 7,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T20:30:34Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T21:30:34Z",
"directional_score_signed": 25,
"bullish_pressure_score": 63,
"bearish_pressure_score": 37,
"net_sentiment_score": 25,
"velocity_score": -5,
"acceleration_score": -10,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 8,
"conviction_score_0_100": 42,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T21:30:34Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T22:30:34Z",
"directional_score_signed": 25,
"bullish_pressure_score": 63,
"bearish_pressure_score": 37,
"net_sentiment_score": 25,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 5,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 8,
"conviction_score_0_100": 42,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T22:30:34Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T23:30:34Z",
"directional_score_signed": 25,
"bullish_pressure_score": 63,
"bearish_pressure_score": 37,
"net_sentiment_score": 25,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 8,
"conviction_score_0_100": 42,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T23:30:34Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T00:30:34Z",
"directional_score_signed": 25,
"bullish_pressure_score": 63,
"bearish_pressure_score": 37,
"net_sentiment_score": 25,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 8,
"conviction_score_0_100": 42,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T00:30:34Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T01:30:34Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 64,
"bearish_pressure_score": 36,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 7,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T01:30:34Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T02:30:34Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 60,
"bearish_pressure_score": 40,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": -8,
"acceleration_score": -11,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 38,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T02:30:34Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T03:30:34Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 65,
"bearish_pressure_score": 35,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 10,
"acceleration_score": 18,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 8,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T03:30:34Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T04:30:34Z",
"directional_score_signed": 35,
"bullish_pressure_score": 68,
"bearish_pressure_score": 32,
"net_sentiment_score": 35,
"velocity_score": 5,
"acceleration_score": -5,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 8,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T04:30:34Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T05:30:34Z",
"directional_score_signed": 50,
"bullish_pressure_score": 75,
"bearish_pressure_score": 25,
"net_sentiment_score": 50,
"velocity_score": 15,
"acceleration_score": 10,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 45,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T05:30:34Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T06:30:34Z",
"directional_score_signed": 35,
"bullish_pressure_score": 68,
"bearish_pressure_score": 32,
"net_sentiment_score": 35,
"velocity_score": -15,
"acceleration_score": -30,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 8,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T06:30:34Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T07:30:34Z",
"directional_score_signed": 45,
"bullish_pressure_score": 73,
"bearish_pressure_score": 27,
"net_sentiment_score": 45,
"velocity_score": 10,
"acceleration_score": 25,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 7,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 48,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T07:30:34Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T08:30:34Z",
"directional_score_signed": 55,
"bullish_pressure_score": 78,
"bearish_pressure_score": 22,
"net_sentiment_score": 55,
"velocity_score": 10,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 65,
"fragility_score_0_100": 44,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T08:30:34Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T09:30:34Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 65,
"bearish_pressure_score": 35,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": -25,
"acceleration_score": -35,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 8,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T09:30:34Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T10:30:34Z",
"directional_score_signed": 25,
"bullish_pressure_score": 63,
"bearish_pressure_score": 37,
"net_sentiment_score": 25,
"velocity_score": -5,
"acceleration_score": 20,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 8,
"conviction_score_0_100": 42,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T10:30:34Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T11:30:34Z",
"directional_score_signed": 25,
"bullish_pressure_score": 63,
"bearish_pressure_score": 37,
"net_sentiment_score": 25,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 5,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 8,
"conviction_score_0_100": 42,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T11:30:34Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T12:30:34Z",
"directional_score_signed": 25,
"bullish_pressure_score": 63,
"bearish_pressure_score": 37,
"net_sentiment_score": 25,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 8,
"conviction_score_0_100": 42,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T12:30:34Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T13:30:34Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 60,
"bearish_pressure_score": 40,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": -5,
"acceleration_score": -5,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 8,
"conviction_score_0_100": 38,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T13:30:34Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T14:30:34Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 55,
"bearish_pressure_score": 45,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": -10,
"acceleration_score": -5,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 7,
"conviction_score_0_100": 30,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 55,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 10,
"latest_inflection_direction": "down",
"latest_inflection_strength": 10,
"signal_regime": "weakening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 12,
"cross_domain_merges": 3,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Single-market scope enforced: analyzed_markets=['copper'].",
"No explicit contradictions provided; contradiction_ratio is a conservative proxy based on mixed macro/legal pressure and uneven source authority mix.",
"Prior market state not supplied; prior assumed neutral for state_change derivation (=> new_bullish).",
"Input timestamps include items later than the flight-plan timestamp; snapshot timestamp set to latest observed signal time for recency-weighting consistency."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}