Snapshot

  • subject_area: Copper futures
  • target_market_code: copper
  • ticker:
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: two_sided_supply_narrative
  • generated_at: 2026-03-18T06:45:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
copper B-copper-001 Copper futures skew upward as near-term demand narratives (grid modernisation + electrification) remain reinforced; supply news adds uncertainty. 63 up accelerating 6h false 58
copper B-copper-002 Over the next 24h, the bias remains mildly bullish but more headline-fragile: trade/legal policy noise can compress the copper risk premium. 58 up stable 24h false 58
copper B-copper-003 Reversal risk is meaningful: a fresh escalation in trade/legal policy constraints or risk-off macro impulse could pull copper futures lower despite structural narratives. 42 down fading 24h false 58

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-20260318-copper-064500Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-18T06:45:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Copper futures",
 "market_code": "copper"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "copper",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "copper"
 ],
 "regime_state": "tightening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-copper-001",
 "market": "copper",
 "claim": "Copper futures skew upward as near-term demand narratives (grid modernisation + electrification) remain reinforced, while supply-side project news adds uncertainty rather than immediate relief.",
 "probability_pct": 63,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "industrial_demand: electrification (EV buses, grid buildout) supportive demand impulse",
 "china_policy / industrial policy: policy-linked infrastructure tone supportive to metals complex",
 "mine_supply: project and disruption headlines increase supply uncertainty premium",
 "inventory: implied sensitivity to supply narrative (no direct inventory datapoint provided)"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-copper-003"
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-copper-002",
 "market": "copper",
 "claim": "Over the next 24h, the bias remains mildly bullish but more headline-fragile: trade/legal policy noise can quickly shift risk appetite and compress the copper risk premium.",
 "probability_pct": 58,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "usd_strength: risk-off / policy uncertainty channel (proxy via trade-policy/legal anomaly)",
 "china_policy: sensitivity to policy headlines remains elevated",
 "mine_supply: mix of long-lead supply additions vs disruption risk keeps two-sided tape"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-copper-003"
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-copper-003",
 "market": "copper",
 "claim": "Reversal risk is meaningful: a fresh escalation in trade/legal policy constraints or risk-off macro impulse could pull copper futures lower despite supportive structural narratives.",
 "probability_pct": 42,
 "direction": "down",
 "velocity": "fading",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "trade_policy: US trade-policy complex and legal uncertainty channel",
 "risk_anomaly: US Supreme Court / trade-policy compliance-gap seed (low-confidence but very recent)",
 "supply: resolution of supply constraints (project approvals / M&A) reduces scarcity premium"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-copper-001",
 "B-copper-002"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "new_bullish",
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "freshness_confidence": "medium",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-copper-001",
 "B-copper-002",
 "B-copper-003"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag": "two_sided_supply_narrative",
 "severity": "medium",
 "note": "Supply narrative contains both potential long-lead additions (project progress) and disruption/constraint risk; can create whipsaw around headlines."
 },
 {
 "flag": "policy_trade_headline_sensitivity",
 "severity": "medium",
 "note": "Trade-policy complex remains a meaningful short-horizon reversal channel for copper risk appetite."
 },
 {
 "flag": "authority_mix_skew_lower_tier",
 "severity": "medium",
 "note": "Several clusters show high reinforcement but a meaningful low-authority share; conviction capped."
 },
 {
 "flag": "data_sparsity_intraday",
 "severity": "low",
 "note": "Intraday bucketisation uses limited timestamped evidence items; timeseries is conservative."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If supportive electrification/infrastructure headlines persist without a new high-authority bearish macro/trade shock in the next 6\u201324h."
 },
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If a fresh, high-authority trade/legal escalation headline arrives (<=2h) and is echoed across multiple sources (contradiction rises)."
 },
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "confidence": "low",
 "trigger_condition": "If simultaneous supply-addition and supply-disruption headlines hit within the same session, increasing narrative contradiction."
 },
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "action": "stay_flat",
 "confidence": "low",
 "trigger_condition": "If signals remain mixed and recency-weighted directional score reverts into the neutral band (between -20 and +20)."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62
 }
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T07:00:00Z",
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 "bullish_pressure_score": 34,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 26,
 "net_sentiment_score": 8,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 32,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T07:00:00Z",
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T08:00:00Z",
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T09:00:00Z",
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T10:00:00Z",
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 },
 {
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 },
 {
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 },
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 {
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 {
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 },
 {
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 {
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 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": true,
 "resolution": "30m",
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 "buckets": [
 {
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 {
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 {
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 {
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T02:00:00Z",
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T02:30:00Z",
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T03:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 36,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 62,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 26,
 "net_sentiment_score": 36,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.31,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 57,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 48,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T03:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 38,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 64,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 26,
 "net_sentiment_score": 38,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.31,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 48,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T04:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 41,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 67,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 26,
 "net_sentiment_score": 41,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.32,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 47,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T04:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 44,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 70,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 26,
 "net_sentiment_score": 44,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.32,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 47,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T05:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 45,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 71,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 26,
 "net_sentiment_score": 45,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.34,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 61,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 53,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T05:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 46,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 72,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 26,
 "net_sentiment_score": 46,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.35,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 61,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 46,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": -2,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 12,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 10,
 "cross_domain_merges": 3,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 12,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Target market resolved explicitly as copper.",
 "No explicit contradiction objects provided; contradiction_ratio is conservative proxy derived from mixed policy/supply narratives and risk anomalies.",
 "Freshness emphasis: multiple items timestamped within 0\u20136h (2026-03-18T04:53Z to 2026-03-18T06:30Z) raise near-term momentum.",
 "No trend_state_memory provided; state_change set as new_bullish (unknown prior)."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}