Snapshot

  • subject_area: Coffee futures (KC)
  • target_market_code: coffee
  • ticker: null
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 4
  • top_risk_flag: cross_domain_driver_mix
  • generated_at: 2026-03-18 07:00 UTC
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
coffee B-coffee-001 Near-term logistics/trade friction is adding upside pressure to deliverable coffee availability, supporting higher coffee futures. 62 up accelerating 6h false 46
coffee B-coffee-002 Weather/climate anomaly chatter plus production-cost risk narratives are reinforcing a tighter supply framing for coffee into the next 24 hours. 58 up stable 24h false 46
coffee B-coffee-003 Demand-side narratives (consumer preference / major branded coffee channel mentions) remain supportive and reduce downside follow-through risk in the next 24 hours. 55 up fading 24h false 46
coffee B-coffee-004 Some 'market update' / institutional reporting signals could be interpreted as partially offsetting supply-tightness narratives, capping upside. 44 mixed stable 24h false 46

Data Dump (Machine Use) { "workflow_6B_CIS_output": { "snapshot_id": "6B-coffee-2026-03-18T07:00:00Z", "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-18T07:00:00Z", "primary_asset_focus": { "name": "Coffee futures (KC)", "market_code": "coffee" }, "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish", "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 63, "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 46, "commodity_registry": [ "crude_oil", "gold", "natural_gas", "copper", "silver", "wheat", "corn", "uranium", "lithium", "coffee" ], "target_market_code": "coffee", "target_resolution_source": "explicit", "scope_mode": "single_market", "analyzed_markets": [ "coffee" ], "regime_state": "tightening", "beliefs": [ { "belief_id": "B-coffee-001", "market": "coffee", "claim": "Near-term logistics/trade friction is adding upside pressure to deliverable coffee availability, supporting higher coffee futures.", "probability_pct": 62, "direction": "up", "velocity": "accelerating", "horizon": "6h", "drivers": [ "shipping_freight", "origin_supply" ], "contradicted_by": [ "B-coffee-004" ] }, { "belief_id": "B-coffee-002", "market": "coffee", "claim": "Weather/climate anomaly chatter plus production-cost risk narratives are reinforcing a tighter supply framing for coffee into the next 24 hours.", "probability_pct": 58, "direction": "up", "velocity": "stable", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "weather", "crop_conditions", "origin_supply" ], "contradicted_by": [ "B-coffee-004" ] }, { "belief_id": "B-coffee-003", "market": "coffee", "claim": "Demand-side narratives (consumer preference / major branded coffee channel mentions) remain supportive and reduce downside follow-through risk in the next 24 hours.", "probability_pct": 55, "direction": "up", "velocity": "fading", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "origin_supply", "shipping_freight" ], "contradicted_by": [] }, { "belief_id": "B-coffee-004", "market": "coffee", "claim": "Some 'market update' / institutional reporting signals could be interpreted as partially offsetting supply-tightness narratives, capping upside.", "probability_pct": 44, "direction": "mixed", "velocity": "stable", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "crop_conditions" ], "contradicted_by": [ "B-coffee-001", "B-coffee-002" ] } ], "market_state_table": [ { "market": "coffee", "directional_state": "bullish", "momentum_state": "strengthening", "reversal_risk": "medium", "state_change": "new_bullish", "conviction_score_0_100": 63, "freshness_confidence": "medium", "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional", "stale_suppression_applied": false, "thesis_kill_switch": false, "late_breaking_alert": false, "fragility_score_0_100": 46, "supporting_belief_ids": [ "B-coffee-001", "B-coffee-002", "B-coffee-003" ] } ], "risk_flags": [ { "flag": "cross_domain_driver_mix", "market": "coffee", "level": "medium", "rationale": "Current bullishness is supported by a blend of logistics + weather/cost narratives; mixed driver sets can whipsaw if one leg fades." }, { "flag": "mapping_confidence_band", "market": "coffee", "level": "medium", "rationale": "Several admitted signals are coffee-adjacent via institutions/brands rather than direct origin harvest/shipping confirmations." }, { "flag": "low_authority_overhang", "market": "coffee", "level": "medium", "rationale": "Portions of the evidence mix are lower-tier / fragmented, increasing headline fragility if high-authority follow-ups disagree." } ], "candidate_actions": [ { "market": "coffee", "action": "watch_long_bias", "confidence": "medium", "trigger_condition": "If fresh logistics disruption updates continue in the next 2\u20136 hours without credible de-escalation signals." }, { "market": "coffee", "action": "volatility_watch", "confidence": "medium", "trigger_condition": "If additional weather/climate anomaly headlines land, especially with authoritative sourcing, increasing gap-risk." }, { "market": "coffee", "action": "reversal_watch", "confidence": "low", "trigger_condition": "If a high-authority report indicates easing supply constraints or improved crop outlook that contradicts current tightness framing." }, { "market": "coffee", "action": "stay_flat", "confidence": "low", "trigger_condition": "If new evidence becomes sparse (no meaningful updates for >12h) while contradiction indicators rise." } ], "paper_trade_signal_pack": { "bullish_markets": [ "coffee" ], "bearish_markets": [], "neutral_mixed_markets": [], "high_reversal_risk_markets": [] }, "signal_timeseries": { "resolution": "1h", "lookback_hours": 24, "bucket_timezone": "UTC", "buckets": [ { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T07:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T08:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 8, "bullish_pressure_score": 54, "bearish_pressure_score": 46, "net_sentiment_score": 8, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.35, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 38, "fragility_score_0_100": 62, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T08:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T09:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 8, "bullish_pressure_score": 54, "bearish_pressure_score": 46, "net_sentiment_score": 8, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.35, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 38, "fragility_score_0_100": 62, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T09:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T10:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 8, "bullish_pressure_score": 54, "bearish_pressure_score": 46, "net_sentiment_score": 8, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.35, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 38, "fragility_score_0_100": 62, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T10:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T11:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 9, "bullish_pressure_score": 55, "bearish_pressure_score": 45, "net_sentiment_score": 9, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.34, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 38, "fragility_score_0_100": 61, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T11:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T12:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 9, "bullish_pressure_score": 55, "bearish_pressure_score": 45, "net_sentiment_score": 9, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.34, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 38, "fragility_score_0_100": 61, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T12:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T13:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 10, "bullish_pressure_score": 55, "bearish_pressure_score": 45, "net_sentiment_score": 10, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.33, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 39, "fragility_score_0_100": 60, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T13:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T14:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 10, "bullish_pressure_score": 55, "bearish_pressure_score": 45, "net_sentiment_score": 10, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.33, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 39, "fragility_score_0_100": 60, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T14:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T15:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 10, "bullish_pressure_score": 55, "bearish_pressure_score": 45, "net_sentiment_score": 10, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.33, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 39, "fragility_score_0_100": 60, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T15:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T16:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 10, "bullish_pressure_score": 55, "bearish_pressure_score": 45, "net_sentiment_score": 10, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.33, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 39, "fragility_score_0_100": 60, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T16:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T17:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 10, "bullish_pressure_score": 55, "bearish_pressure_score": 45, "net_sentiment_score": 10, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.33, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 39, "fragility_score_0_100": 60, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T17:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T18:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 10, "bullish_pressure_score": 55, "bearish_pressure_score": 45, "net_sentiment_score": 10, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.33, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 39, "fragility_score_0_100": 60, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T18:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T19:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 25, "bullish_pressure_score": 63, "bearish_pressure_score": 37, "net_sentiment_score": 25, "velocity_score": 15, "acceleration_score": 15, "contradiction_ratio": 0.3, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 50, "fragility_score_0_100": 55, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T19:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T20:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 25, "bullish_pressure_score": 63, "bearish_pressure_score": 37, "net_sentiment_score": 25, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": -15, "contradiction_ratio": 0.3, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 50, "fragility_score_0_100": 55, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T20:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T21:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 25, "bullish_pressure_score": 63, "bearish_pressure_score": 37, "net_sentiment_score": 25, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.3, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 50, "fragility_score_0_100": 55, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T21:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T22:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 25, "bullish_pressure_score": 63, "bearish_pressure_score": 37, "net_sentiment_score": 25, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.3, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 50, "fragility_score_0_100": 55, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T22:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T23:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 35, "bullish_pressure_score": 68, "bearish_pressure_score": 32, "net_sentiment_score": 35, "velocity_score": 10, "acceleration_score": 10, "contradiction_ratio": 0.28, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 56, "fragility_score_0_100": 50, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T23:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T00:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 35, "bullish_pressure_score": 68, "bearish_pressure_score": 32, "net_sentiment_score": 35, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": -10, "contradiction_ratio": 0.28, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 56, "fragility_score_0_100": 50, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T00:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T01:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 35, "bullish_pressure_score": 68, "bearish_pressure_score": 32, "net_sentiment_score": 35, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.28, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 56, "fragility_score_0_100": 50, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T01:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T02:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 35, "bullish_pressure_score": 68, "bearish_pressure_score": 32, "net_sentiment_score": 35, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.28, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 56, "fragility_score_0_100": 50, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T02:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T03:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 42, "bullish_pressure_score": 71, "bearish_pressure_score": 29, "net_sentiment_score": 42, "velocity_score": 7, "acceleration_score": 7, "contradiction_ratio": 0.27, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 60, "fragility_score_0_100": 47, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T03:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T04:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 42, "bullish_pressure_score": 71, "bearish_pressure_score": 29, "net_sentiment_score": 42, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": -7, "contradiction_ratio": 0.27, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 60, "fragility_score_0_100": 47, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T04:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T05:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 42, "bullish_pressure_score": 71, "bearish_pressure_score": 29, "net_sentiment_score": 42, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.27, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 60, "fragility_score_0_100": 47, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T05:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T06:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 55, "bullish_pressure_score": 78, "bearish_pressure_score": 22, "net_sentiment_score": 55, "velocity_score": 13, "acceleration_score": 13, "contradiction_ratio": 0.25, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 67, "fragility_score_0_100": 44, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T06:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T07:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 65, "bullish_pressure_score": 83, "bearish_pressure_score": 17, "net_sentiment_score": 65, "velocity_score": 10, "acceleration_score": -3, "contradiction_ratio": 0.24, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 72, "fragility_score_0_100": 42, "dominant_state": "bullish" } ] }, "recent_half_hour_overlay": { "enabled": false, "resolution": "30m", "lookback_hours": 6, "buckets": [] }, "summary": { "timeseries_peak_bullish": 65, "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0, "latest_inflection_direction": "up", "latest_inflection_strength": 10, "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish" } }, "diagnostics": { "trends_seen": 12, "trends_admitted": 9, "cross_domain_merges": 3, "stale_suppression_count": 0, "reversal_flags_count": 0, "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0, "kill_switch_markets_count": 0, "timeseries_bucket_count": 24, "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0, "target_market_custom": false, "target_market_unresolved": false, "input_gate_degraded": false, "notes": [ "Target scope locked to single market: coffee (explicit in flight_plan).", "No v2 trend_physics / trend_state_memory fields present in provided payload; used conservative legacy heuristics from sentiment + recency + temporal_profile + evidence recency proxies.", "Unmapped signals (not force-mapped to coffee due to low confidence) were suppressed to background and excluded from state synthesis." ] }, "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B" }