• subject_area: Coffee futures
  • target_market_code: coffee
  • ticker:
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: headline_driven_shipping_risk_premium
  • generated_at: 2026-03-18 22:40 UTC
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0
market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
coffee B1 Coffee futures have an upward bias over the next 6–24h as logistics/shipping disruption risk remains elevated and is being refreshed by late-cycle headlines (freight uncertainty acting like a supply-tightening proxy). 62 up accelerating 24h false 58
coffee B2 Near-term coffee volatility risk is elevated (headline-driven), even if the base directional drift is up. 68 mixed stable 6h false 58
coffee B3 If trade-flow infrastructure/port-flow normalisation narratives persist (or disruptions de-escalate), bullish pressure in coffee can fade quickly within 24h. 38 down fading 24h false 58
{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "CIS_coffee_20260318T224000Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-18T22:40:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Coffee futures",
 "market_code": "coffee"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 63,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "coffee",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "coffee"
 ],
 "regime_state": "tightening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B1",
 "market": "coffee",
 "claim": "Coffee futures have an upward bias over the next 6\u201324h as logistics/shipping disruption risk remains elevated and is being refreshed by late-cycle headlines (freight uncertainty acting like a supply-tightening proxy).",
 "probability_pct": 62,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "shipping_freight",
 "origin_supply",
 "macro_geopolitical_logistics",
 "risk_premium_rebuild"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B3"
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B2",
 "market": "coffee",
 "claim": "Near-term coffee volatility risk is elevated (headline-driven), even if the base directional drift is up.",
 "probability_pct": 68,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "shipping_freight",
 "news_flow_intensity",
 "cross-commodity_macro_linkages"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": []
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B3",
 "market": "coffee",
 "claim": "If trade-flow infrastructure/port-flow normalisation narratives persist (or disruptions de-escalate), bullish pressure in coffee can fade quickly within 24h.",
 "probability_pct": 38,
 "direction": "down",
 "velocity": "fading",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "shipping_freight_normalisation",
 "risk_premium_compression"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B1"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "new_bullish",
 "conviction_score_0_100": 63,
 "freshness_confidence": "medium",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B1",
 "B2"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF1",
 "market": "coffee",
 "label": "headline_driven_shipping_risk_premium",
 "severity": "medium",
 "details": "Directional support is materially linked to fast-moving shipping/logistics disruption narratives; de-escalation can unwind the premium quickly."
 },
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF2",
 "market": "coffee",
 "label": "coffee_specific_signal_indirectness",
 "severity": "medium",
 "details": "A sizeable share of admitted evidence is cross-domain (macro/logistics) rather than directly crop/harvest/stock data for coffee, increasing fragility."
 },
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF3",
 "market": "coffee",
 "label": "contradictory_logistics_normalisation_thread",
 "severity": "low",
 "details": "Co-existing \u2018infrastructure/ports\u2019 improvement narrative partially offsets disruption thesis, elevating reversal risk to medium."
 },
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF4",
 "market": "coffee",
 "label": "low_authority_skew_in_evidence_mix",
 "severity": "medium",
 "details": "Several trend bundles show a high low-authority share; conviction is capped despite recency."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Fresh (<=6h) continuation of disruption headlines OR additional coffee-specific supply/crop constraint signals without offsetting normalisation updates."
 },
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "confidence": "high",
 "trigger_condition": "Rapidly alternating shipping/logistics headlines within the next 6h (headline churn) and/or contradiction ratio rising."
 },
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "A high-trust, very fresh (<=2h) normalisation/de-escalation update appears and begins to dominate recency-weighted heat."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "coffee"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 8,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 12,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 4,
 "net_sentiment_score": 8,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 26,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 68,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 8,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 12,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 4,
 "net_sentiment_score": 8,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 26,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 68,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 9,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 13,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 4,
 "net_sentiment_score": 9,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 27,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 67,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 9,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 13,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 4,
 "net_sentiment_score": 9,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 27,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 67,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 14,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 4,
 "net_sentiment_score": 10,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 28,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 14,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 4,
 "net_sentiment_score": 10,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 28,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 14,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 4,
 "net_sentiment_score": 10,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 28,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 11,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 15,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 4,
 "net_sentiment_score": 11,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 29,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 65,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 11,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 15,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 4,
 "net_sentiment_score": 11,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 29,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 65,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T08:00:00Z",
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 "directional_score_signed": 11,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 15,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 4,
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 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
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 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 29,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 65,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 16,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 4,
 "net_sentiment_score": 12,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 30,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 16,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 4,
 "net_sentiment_score": 12,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 30,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 22,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 4,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": 6,
 "acceleration_score": 6,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 38,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 22,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 4,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -6,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 36,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 19,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 23,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 4,
 "net_sentiment_score": 19,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 36,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 19,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 23,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 4,
 "net_sentiment_score": 19,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 36,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 24,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 30,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 6,
 "net_sentiment_score": 24,
 "velocity_score": 5,
 "acceleration_score": 5,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 45,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 32,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 40,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 8,
 "net_sentiment_score": 32,
 "velocity_score": 8,
 "acceleration_score": 3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 42,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 52,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 42,
 "velocity_score": 10,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 42,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 52,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 42,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -10,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 57,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 43,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 54,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 11,
 "net_sentiment_score": 43,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 38,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 50,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 38,
 "velocity_score": -5,
 "acceleration_score": -6,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 48,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 60,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 48,
 "velocity_score": 10,
 "acceleration_score": 15,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 64,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 55,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 68,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 13,
 "net_sentiment_score": 55,
 "velocity_score": 7,
 "acceleration_score": -3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 67,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 55,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 7,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 8,
 "cross_domain_merges": 3,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "No trend_state_memory provided; state_change computed against unknown prior and treated as neutral->bullish for classification purposes.",
 "No explicit contradiction objects provided; contradiction dynamics approximated from co-existing disruption vs normalisation narratives."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}