- subject_area: Coffee futures
- target_market_code: coffee
- ticker:
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: headline_driven_shipping_risk_premium
- generated_at: 2026-03-18 22:40 UTC
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
| market |
belief_id |
claim |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| coffee |
B1 |
Coffee futures have an upward bias over the next 6–24h as logistics/shipping disruption risk remains elevated and is being refreshed by late-cycle headlines (freight uncertainty acting like a supply-tightening proxy). |
62 |
up |
accelerating |
24h |
false |
58 |
| coffee |
B2 |
Near-term coffee volatility risk is elevated (headline-driven), even if the base directional drift is up. |
68 |
mixed |
stable |
6h |
false |
58 |
| coffee |
B3 |
If trade-flow infrastructure/port-flow normalisation narratives persist (or disruptions de-escalate), bullish pressure in coffee can fade quickly within 24h. |
38 |
down |
fading |
24h |
false |
58 |
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "CIS_coffee_20260318T224000Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-18T22:40:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Coffee futures",
"market_code": "coffee"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "coffee",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"coffee"
],
"regime_state": "tightening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B1",
"market": "coffee",
"claim": "Coffee futures have an upward bias over the next 6\u201324h as logistics/shipping disruption risk remains elevated and is being refreshed by late-cycle headlines (freight uncertainty acting like a supply-tightening proxy).",
"probability_pct": 62,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"shipping_freight",
"origin_supply",
"macro_geopolitical_logistics",
"risk_premium_rebuild"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B3"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B2",
"market": "coffee",
"claim": "Near-term coffee volatility risk is elevated (headline-driven), even if the base directional drift is up.",
"probability_pct": 68,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"shipping_freight",
"news_flow_intensity",
"cross-commodity_macro_linkages"
],
"contradicted_by": []
},
{
"belief_id": "B3",
"market": "coffee",
"claim": "If trade-flow infrastructure/port-flow normalisation narratives persist (or disruptions de-escalate), bullish pressure in coffee can fade quickly within 24h.",
"probability_pct": 38,
"direction": "down",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"shipping_freight_normalisation",
"risk_premium_compression"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B1"
]
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "coffee",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"freshness_confidence": "medium",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B1",
"B2"
]
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF1",
"market": "coffee",
"label": "headline_driven_shipping_risk_premium",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "Directional support is materially linked to fast-moving shipping/logistics disruption narratives; de-escalation can unwind the premium quickly."
},
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF2",
"market": "coffee",
"label": "coffee_specific_signal_indirectness",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "A sizeable share of admitted evidence is cross-domain (macro/logistics) rather than directly crop/harvest/stock data for coffee, increasing fragility."
},
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF3",
"market": "coffee",
"label": "contradictory_logistics_normalisation_thread",
"severity": "low",
"details": "Co-existing \u2018infrastructure/ports\u2019 improvement narrative partially offsets disruption thesis, elevating reversal risk to medium."
},
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF4",
"market": "coffee",
"label": "low_authority_skew_in_evidence_mix",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "Several trend bundles show a high low-authority share; conviction is capped despite recency."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "coffee",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Fresh (<=6h) continuation of disruption headlines OR additional coffee-specific supply/crop constraint signals without offsetting normalisation updates."
},
{
"market": "coffee",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"confidence": "high",
"trigger_condition": "Rapidly alternating shipping/logistics headlines within the next 6h (headline churn) and/or contradiction ratio rising."
},
{
"market": "coffee",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "A high-trust, very fresh (<=2h) normalisation/de-escalation update appears and begins to dominate recency-weighted heat."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"coffee"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 12,
"bearish_pressure_score": 4,
"net_sentiment_score": 8,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 26,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 8,
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"bearish_pressure_score": 4,
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"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 26,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 9,
"bullish_pressure_score": 13,
"bearish_pressure_score": 4,
"net_sentiment_score": 9,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 27,
"fragility_score_0_100": 67,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 9,
"bullish_pressure_score": 13,
"bearish_pressure_score": 4,
"net_sentiment_score": 9,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 27,
"fragility_score_0_100": 67,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 14,
"bearish_pressure_score": 4,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 28,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T05:00:00Z",
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"bearish_pressure_score": 4,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": 0,
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"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T05:00:00Z",
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"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 14,
"bearish_pressure_score": 4,
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"stale_evidence_count": 1,
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"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T06:00:00Z",
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"directional_score_signed": 11,
"bullish_pressure_score": 15,
"bearish_pressure_score": 4,
"net_sentiment_score": 11,
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"contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
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"stale_evidence_count": 1,
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"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T07:00:00Z",
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"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T08:00:00Z",
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"bearish_pressure_score": 4,
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"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 16,
"bearish_pressure_score": 4,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 30,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 16,
"bearish_pressure_score": 4,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 30,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 22,
"bearish_pressure_score": 4,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 6,
"acceleration_score": 6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 38,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 22,
"bearish_pressure_score": 4,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 36,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 19,
"bullish_pressure_score": 23,
"bearish_pressure_score": 4,
"net_sentiment_score": 19,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 36,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 19,
"bullish_pressure_score": 23,
"bearish_pressure_score": 4,
"net_sentiment_score": 19,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 36,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 30,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": 5,
"acceleration_score": 5,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 32,
"bullish_pressure_score": 40,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 32,
"velocity_score": 8,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 42,
"bullish_pressure_score": 52,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 42,
"velocity_score": 10,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 42,
"bullish_pressure_score": 52,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 42,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -10,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 57,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 43,
"bullish_pressure_score": 54,
"bearish_pressure_score": 11,
"net_sentiment_score": 43,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 38,
"bullish_pressure_score": 50,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 38,
"velocity_score": -5,
"acceleration_score": -6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 48,
"bullish_pressure_score": 60,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 48,
"velocity_score": 10,
"acceleration_score": 15,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 55,
"bullish_pressure_score": 68,
"bearish_pressure_score": 13,
"net_sentiment_score": 55,
"velocity_score": 7,
"acceleration_score": -3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 67,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 55,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 7,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 8,
"cross_domain_merges": 3,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"No trend_state_memory provided; state_change computed against unknown prior and treated as neutral->bullish for classification purposes.",
"No explicit contradiction objects provided; contradiction dynamics approximated from co-existing disruption vs normalisation narratives."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}