Snapshot

  • subject_area: Coffee futures
  • target_market_code: coffee
  • ticker: null
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 4
  • top_risk_flag: indirect_driver_mix (medium)
  • generated_at: 2026-03-18T17:45:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
coffee B-coffee-001 Near-term logistics/geopolitical disruption risk is adding an upside risk premium to coffee futures (delivery delay / rerouting / freight-cost pass-through dynamics). 62 up accelerating 24h false 63
coffee B-coffee-002 Demand-side narratives (consumer preference strength / industry growth) are supportive of coffee futures, reinforcing upside bias when supply news is tight. 55 up stable 30d false 63
coffee B-coffee-003 Crop/production-risk commentary is skewing perceived supply risk higher, supporting prices but increasing volatility sensitivity to new weather/crop headlines. 58 up stable 24h false 63
coffee B-coffee-004 Risk-off macro sentiment or demand softness could cap the upside (disruption headlines may be interpreted as demand-negative rather than supply-tightening). 40 down fading 24h false 63

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-coffee-20260318T174500Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-18T17:45:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Coffee futures",
 "market_code": "coffee"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "coffee",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "coffee"
 ],
 "regime_state": "tightening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-coffee-001",
 "market": "coffee",
 "claim": "Near-term logistics/geopolitical disruption risk is adding an upside risk premium to coffee futures (delivery delay / rerouting / freight-cost pass-through dynamics).",
 "probability_pct": 62,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "shipping_freight",
 "origin_supply"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-coffee-004"
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-coffee-002",
 "market": "coffee",
 "claim": "Demand-side narratives (consumer preference strength / industry growth) are supportive of coffee futures, reinforcing upside bias when supply news is tight.",
 "probability_pct": 55,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "30d",
 "drivers": [
 "crop_conditions",
 "origin_supply"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-coffee-004"
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-coffee-003",
 "market": "coffee",
 "claim": "Crop/production-risk commentary is skewing perceived supply risk higher, supporting prices but increasing volatility sensitivity to new weather/crop headlines.",
 "probability_pct": 58,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "weather",
 "crop_conditions",
 "origin_supply"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": []
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-coffee-004",
 "market": "coffee",
 "claim": "Risk-off macro sentiment or demand softness could cap the upside (disruption headlines may be interpreted as demand-negative rather than supply-tightening).",
 "probability_pct": 40,
 "direction": "down",
 "velocity": "fading",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "currency_brl_usd",
 "shipping_freight"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-coffee-001",
 "B-coffee-002",
 "B-coffee-003"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "new_bullish",
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "freshness_confidence": "medium",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-coffee-001",
 "B-coffee-002",
 "B-coffee-003"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag": "indirect_driver_mix",
 "severity": "medium",
 "market": "coffee",
 "detail": "A large share of admitted support is via second-order channels (logistics/geopolitics), which can flip interpretation quickly (supply-tightening vs demand-negative)."
 },
 {
 "flag": "authority_mix_skew_low",
 "severity": "medium",
 "market": "coffee",
 "detail": "Several supporting narratives show high low-authority share / broad source mix; conviction capped despite recency."
 },
 {
 "flag": "narrative_whipsaw_risk",
 "severity": "medium",
 "market": "coffee",
 "detail": "Shipping/geopolitical headlines can reverse quickly; reversal risk held at medium even with bullish net pressure."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "trigger_condition": "Directional score remains >= +20 with fresh evidence count staying > stale evidence count over the next 6h."
 },
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "confidence": "high",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "Contradiction ratio rises above 0.40 or late-breaking disruption headlines cluster inside a 2h window."
 },
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "Directional score falls back below +20 while contradiction ratio increases (mixed interpretation dominates)."
 },
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "confidence": "low",
 "action": "stay_flat",
 "trigger_condition": "Directional score oscillates between -10 and +10 for >= 4 consecutive hourly buckets (rangebound regime)."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "coffee"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 8,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 45,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 37,
 "net_sentiment_score": 8,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 44,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 8,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 45,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 37,
 "net_sentiment_score": 8,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 44,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 9,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 45,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 36,
 "net_sentiment_score": 9,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 45,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 46,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 36,
 "net_sentiment_score": 10,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 45,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 46,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 36,
 "net_sentiment_score": 10,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 45,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 11,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 46,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 35,
 "net_sentiment_score": 11,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 46,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 47,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 35,
 "net_sentiment_score": 12,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 46,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 47,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 35,
 "net_sentiment_score": 12,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 46,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 13,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 47,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 34,
 "net_sentiment_score": 13,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 47,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 14,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 48,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 34,
 "net_sentiment_score": 14,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 47,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 15,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 48,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 33,
 "net_sentiment_score": 15,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.27,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 48,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 16,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 49,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 33,
 "net_sentiment_score": 16,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.27,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 49,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 50,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 32,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.27,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 50,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 51,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 31,
 "net_sentiment_score": 20,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 52,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 53,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 25,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 53,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 28,
 "net_sentiment_score": 25,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.29,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 28,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 55,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 27,
 "net_sentiment_score": 28,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 56,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 26,
 "net_sentiment_score": 30,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 32,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 57,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 25,
 "net_sentiment_score": 32,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.31,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 57,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 34,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 58,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 24,
 "net_sentiment_score": 34,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.32,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 36,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 59,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 23,
 "net_sentiment_score": 36,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.33,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 59,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 38,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 60,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 22,
 "net_sentiment_score": 38,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.34,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 40,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 61,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 21,
 "net_sentiment_score": 40,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.35,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 61,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 42,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 62,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 42,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.35,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 42,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 2,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 8,
 "cross_domain_merges": 2,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Physics v2 fields (trend_physics / trend_state_memory) not present in provided 5B trend objects; used conservative legacy proxying from sentiment/recency/heat metadata.",
 "Prior market state not supplied; state_change computed versus unknown prior (treated as neutral baseline)."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}