Snapshot
- subject_area: Coffee futures
- target_market_code: coffee
- ticker: null
- regime_state: unstable
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: RF-COFFEE-001 (contradiction_spike, high)
- generated_at: 2026-03-18T12:54:49Z
- sentiment_word: Bearish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market |
belief_id |
claim |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| coffee |
B-COFFEE-001 |
Coffee futures are skewed lower as the dominant near-term narrative shifts toward improved origin supply expectations (notably Brazil), increasing downside price pressure. |
60 |
down |
accelerating |
24h |
false |
68 |
| coffee |
B-COFFEE-002 |
Upside tail-risk persists from shipping/freight disruptions and route capacity shocks, which can tighten deliverable availability and destabilise the downside thesis. |
40 |
up |
stable |
6h |
false |
68 |
| coffee |
B-COFFEE-003 |
Demand/industry growth signals support consumption but look more thematic than price-setting in the very near term; net effect is to raise reversal risk rather than fully negate the bearish skew. |
55 |
mixed |
fading |
24h |
false |
68 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B_coffee_20260318T125449Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-18T12:54:49Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Coffee futures",
"market_code": "coffee"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bearish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 57,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "coffee",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"coffee"
],
"regime_state": "unstable",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-COFFEE-001",
"market": "coffee",
"claim": "Coffee futures are skewed lower as the dominant near-term narrative shifts toward improved origin supply expectations (notably Brazil), increasing downside price pressure.",
"probability_pct": 60,
"direction": "down",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"origin_supply",
"crop_conditions",
"currency_brl_usd (indirect/uncertain in feed)",
"macro-demand sensitivity (US consumer belt-tightening narrative bleed-through)"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-COFFEE-002",
"B-COFFEE-003"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-COFFEE-002",
"market": "coffee",
"claim": "Upside tail-risk persists from shipping/freight disruptions and route capacity shocks, which can tighten deliverable availability and destabilise the downside thesis.",
"probability_pct": 40,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"shipping_freight",
"geopolitical/logistics disruption spillover"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-COFFEE-001"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-COFFEE-003",
"market": "coffee",
"claim": "Demand/industry growth signals support consumption but look more thematic than price-setting in the very near term; net effect is to raise reversal risk rather than fully negate the bearish skew.",
"probability_pct": 55,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"consumer_preferences",
"industry_expansion/retail network growth"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-COFFEE-001"
]
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "coffee",
"directional_state": "bearish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "high",
"state_change": "new_bearish",
"conviction_score_0_100": 57,
"freshness_confidence": "medium",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-COFFEE-001",
"B-COFFEE-002",
"B-COFFEE-003"
]
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF-COFFEE-001",
"market": "coffee",
"type": "contradiction_spike",
"severity": "high",
"description": "Fresh bearish price-pressure narrative co-exists with fresh logistics-driven upside tail-risk and thematic demand positives, increasing whipsaw potential."
},
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF-COFFEE-002",
"market": "coffee",
"type": "narrative_whipsaw",
"severity": "medium",
"description": "Directional score recently crossed from neutral-mixed into bearish territory, implying sensitivity to incremental newsflow."
},
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF-COFFEE-003",
"market": "coffee",
"type": "data_sparsity_coffee_specific",
"severity": "medium",
"description": "A meaningful share of admitted evidence is cross-commodity logistics/macro; coffee-specific price-setting evidence density is thinner than total feed volume suggests."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "coffee",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "watch_short_bias",
"trigger_condition": "If additional coffee-specific origin supply confirmations arrive within the next 6\u201324h without offsetting freight shock escalation, bearish skew persists."
},
{
"market": "coffee",
"confidence": "high",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"trigger_condition": "If a high-authority, very-recent logistics escalation (or weather/crop shock) appears and coincides with rising contradiction, expect fast neutralisation/reversal risk."
},
{
"market": "coffee",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"trigger_condition": "If contradictory drivers cluster within the same 1\u20132h window (supply-up news + freight disruption), expect intraday volatility expansion."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [],
"bearish_markets": [
"coffee"
],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": [
"coffee"
]
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 6,
"bullish_pressure_score": 52,
"bearish_pressure_score": 46,
"net_sentiment_score": 6,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.4,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 33,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 4,
"bullish_pressure_score": 51,
"bearish_pressure_score": 47,
"net_sentiment_score": 4,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.41,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 33,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 2,
"bullish_pressure_score": 50,
"bearish_pressure_score": 48,
"net_sentiment_score": 2,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.42,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 32,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 49,
"bearish_pressure_score": 49,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.43,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 31,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -4,
"bullish_pressure_score": 48,
"bearish_pressure_score": 52,
"net_sentiment_score": -4,
"velocity_score": -4,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.44,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 32,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -6,
"bullish_pressure_score": 47,
"bearish_pressure_score": 53,
"net_sentiment_score": -6,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.45,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 33,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -7,
"bullish_pressure_score": 47,
"bearish_pressure_score": 54,
"net_sentiment_score": -7,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.46,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 33,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 46,
"bearish_pressure_score": 54,
"net_sentiment_score": -8,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.46,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 34,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -9,
"bullish_pressure_score": 46,
"bearish_pressure_score": 55,
"net_sentiment_score": -9,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.47,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 34,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 45,
"bearish_pressure_score": 55,
"net_sentiment_score": -10,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.47,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 35,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -11,
"bullish_pressure_score": 45,
"bearish_pressure_score": 56,
"net_sentiment_score": -11,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.48,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 35,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 44,
"bearish_pressure_score": 56,
"net_sentiment_score": -12,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.49,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 36,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -13,
"bullish_pressure_score": 44,
"bearish_pressure_score": 57,
"net_sentiment_score": -13,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.49,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 36,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -14,
"bullish_pressure_score": 43,
"bearish_pressure_score": 57,
"net_sentiment_score": -14,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.5,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 37,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -15,
"bullish_pressure_score": 43,
"bearish_pressure_score": 58,
"net_sentiment_score": -15,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.51,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 38,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -16,
"bullish_pressure_score": 42,
"bearish_pressure_score": 58,
"net_sentiment_score": -16,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.52,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 39,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 41,
"bearish_pressure_score": 59,
"net_sentiment_score": -18,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.53,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 41,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -19,
"bullish_pressure_score": 41,
"bearish_pressure_score": 60,
"net_sentiment_score": -19,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.54,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 42,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 40,
"bearish_pressure_score": 60,
"net_sentiment_score": -20,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.55,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "bearish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 39,
"bearish_pressure_score": 61,
"net_sentiment_score": -22,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.56,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 47,
"fragility_score_0_100": 67,
"dominant_state": "bearish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 38,
"bearish_pressure_score": 62,
"net_sentiment_score": -24,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.58,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 67,
"dominant_state": "bearish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -25,
"bullish_pressure_score": 38,
"bearish_pressure_score": 63,
"net_sentiment_score": -25,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.59,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "bearish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -27,
"bullish_pressure_score": 37,
"bearish_pressure_score": 64,
"net_sentiment_score": -27,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.61,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "bearish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 37,
"bearish_pressure_score": 65,
"net_sentiment_score": -28,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.62,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 57,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "bearish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 6,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": -28,
"latest_inflection_direction": "down",
"latest_inflection_strength": 12,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bearish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 10,
"cross_domain_merges": 2,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Target market resolved explicitly from flight_plan.target_market_code=coffee.",
"Prior state unavailable; state_change computed with neutral prior assumption for state-machine continuity.",
"Reversal risk elevated due to mixed fresh drivers (bearish supply narrative vs logistics upside tail-risk and thematic demand positives)."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}