Snapshot

  • subject_area: Coffee futures
  • target_market_code: coffee
  • ticker: null
  • regime_state: unstable
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: RF-COFFEE-001 (contradiction_spike, high)
  • generated_at: 2026-03-18T12:54:49Z
  • sentiment_word: Bearish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
coffee B-COFFEE-001 Coffee futures are skewed lower as the dominant near-term narrative shifts toward improved origin supply expectations (notably Brazil), increasing downside price pressure. 60 down accelerating 24h false 68
coffee B-COFFEE-002 Upside tail-risk persists from shipping/freight disruptions and route capacity shocks, which can tighten deliverable availability and destabilise the downside thesis. 40 up stable 6h false 68
coffee B-COFFEE-003 Demand/industry growth signals support consumption but look more thematic than price-setting in the very near term; net effect is to raise reversal risk rather than fully negate the bearish skew. 55 mixed fading 24h false 68

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B_coffee_20260318T125449Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-18T12:54:49Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Coffee futures",
 "market_code": "coffee"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bearish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 57,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 68,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "coffee",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "coffee"
 ],
 "regime_state": "unstable",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-COFFEE-001",
 "market": "coffee",
 "claim": "Coffee futures are skewed lower as the dominant near-term narrative shifts toward improved origin supply expectations (notably Brazil), increasing downside price pressure.",
 "probability_pct": 60,
 "direction": "down",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "origin_supply",
 "crop_conditions",
 "currency_brl_usd (indirect/uncertain in feed)",
 "macro-demand sensitivity (US consumer belt-tightening narrative bleed-through)"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-COFFEE-002",
 "B-COFFEE-003"
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-COFFEE-002",
 "market": "coffee",
 "claim": "Upside tail-risk persists from shipping/freight disruptions and route capacity shocks, which can tighten deliverable availability and destabilise the downside thesis.",
 "probability_pct": 40,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "shipping_freight",
 "geopolitical/logistics disruption spillover"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-COFFEE-001"
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-COFFEE-003",
 "market": "coffee",
 "claim": "Demand/industry growth signals support consumption but look more thematic than price-setting in the very near term; net effect is to raise reversal risk rather than fully negate the bearish skew.",
 "probability_pct": 55,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "fading",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "consumer_preferences",
 "industry_expansion/retail network growth"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-COFFEE-001"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "directional_state": "bearish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "high",
 "state_change": "new_bearish",
 "conviction_score_0_100": 57,
 "freshness_confidence": "medium",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 68,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-COFFEE-001",
 "B-COFFEE-002",
 "B-COFFEE-003"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-COFFEE-001",
 "market": "coffee",
 "type": "contradiction_spike",
 "severity": "high",
 "description": "Fresh bearish price-pressure narrative co-exists with fresh logistics-driven upside tail-risk and thematic demand positives, increasing whipsaw potential."
 },
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-COFFEE-002",
 "market": "coffee",
 "type": "narrative_whipsaw",
 "severity": "medium",
 "description": "Directional score recently crossed from neutral-mixed into bearish territory, implying sensitivity to incremental newsflow."
 },
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-COFFEE-003",
 "market": "coffee",
 "type": "data_sparsity_coffee_specific",
 "severity": "medium",
 "description": "A meaningful share of admitted evidence is cross-commodity logistics/macro; coffee-specific price-setting evidence density is thinner than total feed volume suggests."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action": "watch_short_bias",
 "trigger_condition": "If additional coffee-specific origin supply confirmations arrive within the next 6\u201324h without offsetting freight shock escalation, bearish skew persists."
 },
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "confidence": "high",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "If a high-authority, very-recent logistics escalation (or weather/crop shock) appears and coincides with rising contradiction, expect fast neutralisation/reversal risk."
 },
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "If contradictory drivers cluster within the same 1\u20132h window (supply-up news + freight disruption), expect intraday volatility expansion."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [],
 "bearish_markets": [
 "coffee"
 ],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": [
 "coffee"
 ]
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 6,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 52,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 46,
 "net_sentiment_score": 6,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.4,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 33,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 4,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 51,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 47,
 "net_sentiment_score": 4,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.41,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 33,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 2,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 50,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 48,
 "net_sentiment_score": 2,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.42,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 32,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 49,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 49,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.43,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 31,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -4,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 48,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 52,
 "net_sentiment_score": -4,
 "velocity_score": -4,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.44,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 32,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -6,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 47,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 53,
 "net_sentiment_score": -6,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.45,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 33,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 59,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -7,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 47,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 54,
 "net_sentiment_score": -7,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.46,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 33,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 59,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -8,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 46,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 54,
 "net_sentiment_score": -8,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.46,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 34,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -9,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 46,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 55,
 "net_sentiment_score": -9,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.47,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 34,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 45,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 55,
 "net_sentiment_score": -10,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.47,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 35,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -11,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 45,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 56,
 "net_sentiment_score": -11,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.48,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 35,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 44,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 56,
 "net_sentiment_score": -12,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.49,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 36,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -13,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 44,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 57,
 "net_sentiment_score": -13,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.49,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 36,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -14,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 43,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 57,
 "net_sentiment_score": -14,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.5,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 37,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -15,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 43,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 58,
 "net_sentiment_score": -15,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.51,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 38,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -16,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 42,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 58,
 "net_sentiment_score": -16,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.52,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 39,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 41,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 59,
 "net_sentiment_score": -18,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.53,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 41,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 65,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -19,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 41,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 60,
 "net_sentiment_score": -19,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.54,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 42,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 40,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 60,
 "net_sentiment_score": -20,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.55,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 44,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "bearish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 39,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 61,
 "net_sentiment_score": -22,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.56,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 47,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 67,
 "dominant_state": "bearish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -24,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 38,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 62,
 "net_sentiment_score": -24,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.58,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 50,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 67,
 "dominant_state": "bearish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -25,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 38,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 63,
 "net_sentiment_score": -25,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.59,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 68,
 "dominant_state": "bearish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -27,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 37,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 64,
 "net_sentiment_score": -27,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.61,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 55,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 68,
 "dominant_state": "bearish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -28,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 37,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 65,
 "net_sentiment_score": -28,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.62,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 57,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 68,
 "dominant_state": "bearish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 6,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": -28,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "down",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 12,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bearish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 10,
 "cross_domain_merges": 2,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Target market resolved explicitly from flight_plan.target_market_code=coffee.",
 "Prior state unavailable; state_change computed with neutral prior assumption for state-machine continuity.",
 "Reversal risk elevated due to mixed fresh drivers (bearish supply narrative vs logistics upside tail-risk and thematic demand positives)."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}