1. Snapshot
  • subject_area: Brent crude oil futures
  • target_market_code: crude_oil
  • ticker: null
  • regime_state: unstable
  • beliefs_count: 2
  • top_risk_flag: contradiction_spike
  • generated_at: 2026-03-18 22:05 UTC
  • sentiment_word: Reversal-Risk
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0
  1. Signal Table | market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility | |---|---:|---|---:|---|---|---|---:|---:| | crude_oil | B-CO-001 | Brent crude oil futures are more likely to trade higher over the next 6h than lower, primarily due to geopolitical/shipping-chokepoint disruption risk and refinery/outage narratives dominating recent attention. | 63 | up | accelerating | 6h | false | 72 | | crude_oil | B-CO-002 | Over the next 24h, upside in Brent is likely to be choppy and vulnerable to pullbacks if inventory-build/strategic-release narratives dominate (i.e., 'supply response' headlines begin to outweigh disruption risk). | 58 | mixed | stable | 24h | false | 72 |

  2. Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-20260318T220500Z-crude_oil",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-18T22:05:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Brent crude oil futures",
 "market_code": "crude_oil"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Reversal-Risk",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 72,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "crude_oil",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "crude_oil"
 ],
 "regime_state": "unstable",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-CO-001",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "claim": "Brent crude oil futures are more likely to trade higher over the next 6h than lower, primarily due to geopolitical/shipping-chokepoint disruption risk and refinery/outage narratives dominating recent attention.",
 "probability_pct": 63,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "Geopolitics / conflict escalation risk (Middle East)",
 "Maritime chokepoints / shipping risk (Hormuz-adjacent narrative cluster)",
 "Refinery/outage and supply-disruption headlines (Iraq/UAE-linked clusters)"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-CO-002"
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-CO-002",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "claim": "Over the next 24h, upside in Brent is likely to be choppy and vulnerable to pullbacks if inventory-build/strategic-release narratives dominate (i.e., 'supply response' headlines begin to outweigh disruption risk).",
 "probability_pct": 58,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "Crude stock build / inventories framing",
 "Strategic reserve releases / emergency reserve actions",
 "Narrative whipsaw risk: de-escalation or reopening of disrupted routes"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-CO-001"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "high",
 "state_change": "new_bullish",
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "freshness_confidence": "high",
 "catalyst_type": "reversal_warning",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 72,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-CO-001",
 "B-CO-002"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag": "contradiction_spike",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "severity": "high",
 "details": "Fresh supply-disruption/chokepoint pressure co-exists with inventories/strategic-release style counter-pressure, producing a mixed tape and elevated reversal risk."
 },
 {
 "flag": "narrative_whipsaw",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "severity": "high",
 "details": "Multiple fast-cycle geopolitics + shipping + inventories narratives are active concurrently; small updates can flip intraday direction."
 },
 {
 "flag": "stale_context_overhang",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "severity": "medium",
 "details": "Some of the strongest 'supply disruption / chokepoint' scaffolding is >24h old; still influential, but requires continued fresh confirmation to avoid decay."
 },
 {
 "flag": "authority_mix_low_tier_share",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "severity": "medium",
 "details": "Several VIP/risk signals are single-source or lower-tier; used primarily to raise fragility rather than increase conviction."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If fresh geopolitics/shipping disruption signals continue without equally strong confirmation of supply relief (inventory builds/SPR releases/de-escalation), bullish state persists."
 },
 {
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "confidence": "high",
 "trigger_condition": "If inventories/strategic-release/supply-restoration headlines cluster within a short window and contradiction remains elevated, expect downside reversal risk to rise sharply."
 },
 {
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "confidence": "high",
 "trigger_condition": "If both disruption and supply-relief headlines print in the same session, expect wider intraday ranges (mixed regime)."
 },
 {
 "action": "hard_de_risk_watch",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If a high-authority, very fresh (<=2h) opposing signal emerges that directly negates the disruption thesis (e.g., route reopening + verified flow normalization), cap conviction immediately."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "crude_oil"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": [
 "crude_oil"
 ]
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T22:05:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T23:05:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 10,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
 "net_sentiment_score": -20,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.33,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 46,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 74,
 "dominant_state": "bearish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T23:05:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T00:05:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -2,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 10,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": -2,
 "velocity_score": 18,
 "acceleration_score": 18,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.83,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 17,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 90,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T00:05:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T01:05:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 15,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 35,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 15,
 "velocity_score": 17,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.57,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 34,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 81,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T01:05:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T02:05:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 10,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": -15,
 "acceleration_score": -32,
 "contradiction_ratio": 1.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 0,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 95,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T02:05:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T03:05:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -8,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 10,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 18,
 "net_sentiment_score": -8,
 "velocity_score": -8,
 "acceleration_score": 7,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.56,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 9,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 80,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T03:05:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T04:05:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 10,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 8,
 "acceleration_score": 16,
 "contradiction_ratio": 1.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 0,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 100,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T04:05:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T05:05:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 8,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 18,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 8,
 "velocity_score": 8,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.56,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 9,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 80,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T05:05:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T06:05:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 10,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 22,
 "net_sentiment_score": -12,
 "velocity_score": -20,
 "acceleration_score": -28,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.45,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 18,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 77,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T06:05:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T07:05:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -35,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 10,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 45,
 "net_sentiment_score": -35,
 "velocity_score": -23,
 "acceleration_score": -3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 72,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "bearish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T07:05:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T08:05:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 37,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 55,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 18,
 "net_sentiment_score": 37,
 "velocity_score": 72,
 "acceleration_score": 95,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.33,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 79,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T08:05:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T09:05:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 30,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": -19,
 "acceleration_score": -91,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.4,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 23,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 72,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T09:05:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T10:05:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 12,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": -18,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 1.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 0,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 100,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T10:05:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T11:05:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -13,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 12,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 25,
 "net_sentiment_score": -13,
 "velocity_score": -13,
 "acceleration_score": 5,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.48,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 20,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 77,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T11:05:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T12:05:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 17,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 32,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 15,
 "net_sentiment_score": 17,
 "velocity_score": 30,
 "acceleration_score": 43,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.47,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 27,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 76,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T12:05:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T13:05:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 13,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 25,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 13,
 "velocity_score": -4,
 "acceleration_score": -34,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.48,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 20,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 77,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T13:05:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T14:05:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -6,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 22,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 28,
 "net_sentiment_score": -6,
 "velocity_score": -19,
 "acceleration_score": -15,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.79,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 12,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 87,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T14:05:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T15:05:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 12,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 6,
 "acceleration_score": 25,
 "contradiction_ratio": 1.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 0,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 100,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T15:05:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T16:05:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 13,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 25,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 13,
 "velocity_score": 13,
 "acceleration_score": 7,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.48,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 20,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 77,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T16:05:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T17:05:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 12,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": -13,
 "acceleration_score": -26,
 "contradiction_ratio": 1.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 0,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 100,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T17:05:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T18:05:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 12,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 13,
 "contradiction_ratio": 1.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 0,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 100,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T18:05:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T19:05:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 12,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 1.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 0,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 100,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T19:05:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T20:05:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -4,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 18,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 22,
 "net_sentiment_score": -4,
 "velocity_score": -4,
 "acceleration_score": -4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.82,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 9,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 90,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T20:05:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T21:05:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 30,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 20,
 "velocity_score": 24,
 "acceleration_score": 28,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.33,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 32,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 68,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T21:05:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T22:05:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 25,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 40,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 15,
 "net_sentiment_score": 25,
 "velocity_score": 5,
 "acceleration_score": -19,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.38,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 44,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 70,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 37,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": -35,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 29,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 12,
 "cross_domain_merges": 3,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Target scope resolved explicitly from flight_plan.target_market_code=crude_oil.",
 "No usable trend_state_memory provided; state_change treated as new vs unknown prior.",
 "Reversal risk elevated due to mixed drivers (disruption-risk vs inventories/strategic releases) and high contradiction ratio in multiple recent buckets."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
 }
}