- Snapshot
- subject_area: Brent crude oil futures
- target_market_code: crude_oil
- ticker: null
- regime_state: unstable
- beliefs_count: 2
- top_risk_flag: contradiction_spike
- generated_at: 2026-03-18 22:05 UTC
- sentiment_word: Reversal-Risk
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table | market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility | |---|---:|---|---:|---|---|---|---:|---:| | crude_oil | B-CO-001 | Brent crude oil futures are more likely to trade higher over the next 6h than lower, primarily due to geopolitical/shipping-chokepoint disruption risk and refinery/outage narratives dominating recent attention. | 63 | up | accelerating | 6h | false | 72 | | crude_oil | B-CO-002 | Over the next 24h, upside in Brent is likely to be choppy and vulnerable to pullbacks if inventory-build/strategic-release narratives dominate (i.e., 'supply response' headlines begin to outweigh disruption risk). | 58 | mixed | stable | 24h | false | 72 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-20260318T220500Z-crude_oil",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-18T22:05:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Brent crude oil futures",
"market_code": "crude_oil"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Reversal-Risk",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 72,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "crude_oil",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"crude_oil"
],
"regime_state": "unstable",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-CO-001",
"market": "crude_oil",
"claim": "Brent crude oil futures are more likely to trade higher over the next 6h than lower, primarily due to geopolitical/shipping-chokepoint disruption risk and refinery/outage narratives dominating recent attention.",
"probability_pct": 63,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"Geopolitics / conflict escalation risk (Middle East)",
"Maritime chokepoints / shipping risk (Hormuz-adjacent narrative cluster)",
"Refinery/outage and supply-disruption headlines (Iraq/UAE-linked clusters)"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-CO-002"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-CO-002",
"market": "crude_oil",
"claim": "Over the next 24h, upside in Brent is likely to be choppy and vulnerable to pullbacks if inventory-build/strategic-release narratives dominate (i.e., 'supply response' headlines begin to outweigh disruption risk).",
"probability_pct": 58,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"Crude stock build / inventories framing",
"Strategic reserve releases / emergency reserve actions",
"Narrative whipsaw risk: de-escalation or reopening of disrupted routes"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-CO-001"
]
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "high",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"freshness_confidence": "high",
"catalyst_type": "reversal_warning",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 72,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-CO-001",
"B-CO-002"
]
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "contradiction_spike",
"market": "crude_oil",
"severity": "high",
"details": "Fresh supply-disruption/chokepoint pressure co-exists with inventories/strategic-release style counter-pressure, producing a mixed tape and elevated reversal risk."
},
{
"flag": "narrative_whipsaw",
"market": "crude_oil",
"severity": "high",
"details": "Multiple fast-cycle geopolitics + shipping + inventories narratives are active concurrently; small updates can flip intraday direction."
},
{
"flag": "stale_context_overhang",
"market": "crude_oil",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "Some of the strongest 'supply disruption / chokepoint' scaffolding is >24h old; still influential, but requires continued fresh confirmation to avoid decay."
},
{
"flag": "authority_mix_low_tier_share",
"market": "crude_oil",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "Several VIP/risk signals are single-source or lower-tier; used primarily to raise fragility rather than increase conviction."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"market": "crude_oil",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If fresh geopolitics/shipping disruption signals continue without equally strong confirmation of supply relief (inventory builds/SPR releases/de-escalation), bullish state persists."
},
{
"action": "reversal_watch",
"market": "crude_oil",
"confidence": "high",
"trigger_condition": "If inventories/strategic-release/supply-restoration headlines cluster within a short window and contradiction remains elevated, expect downside reversal risk to rise sharply."
},
{
"action": "volatility_watch",
"market": "crude_oil",
"confidence": "high",
"trigger_condition": "If both disruption and supply-relief headlines print in the same session, expect wider intraday ranges (mixed regime)."
},
{
"action": "hard_de_risk_watch",
"market": "crude_oil",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If a high-authority, very fresh (<=2h) opposing signal emerges that directly negates the disruption thesis (e.g., route reopening + verified flow normalization), cap conviction immediately."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"crude_oil"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": [
"crude_oil"
]
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T22:05:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T23:05:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 10,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": -20,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.33,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 74,
"dominant_state": "bearish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T23:05:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T00:05:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -2,
"bullish_pressure_score": 10,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": -2,
"velocity_score": 18,
"acceleration_score": 18,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.83,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 17,
"fragility_score_0_100": 90,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T00:05:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T01:05:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 15,
"bullish_pressure_score": 35,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 15,
"velocity_score": 17,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.57,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 34,
"fragility_score_0_100": 81,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T01:05:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T02:05:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 10,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": -15,
"acceleration_score": -32,
"contradiction_ratio": 1.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 0,
"fragility_score_0_100": 95,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T02:05:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T03:05:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 10,
"bearish_pressure_score": 18,
"net_sentiment_score": -8,
"velocity_score": -8,
"acceleration_score": 7,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.56,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 9,
"fragility_score_0_100": 80,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T03:05:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T04:05:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 10,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 8,
"acceleration_score": 16,
"contradiction_ratio": 1.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 0,
"fragility_score_0_100": 100,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T04:05:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T05:05:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 18,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 8,
"velocity_score": 8,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.56,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 9,
"fragility_score_0_100": 80,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T05:05:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T06:05:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 10,
"bearish_pressure_score": 22,
"net_sentiment_score": -12,
"velocity_score": -20,
"acceleration_score": -28,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.45,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 18,
"fragility_score_0_100": 77,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T06:05:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T07:05:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -35,
"bullish_pressure_score": 10,
"bearish_pressure_score": 45,
"net_sentiment_score": -35,
"velocity_score": -23,
"acceleration_score": -3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "bearish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T07:05:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T08:05:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 37,
"bullish_pressure_score": 55,
"bearish_pressure_score": 18,
"net_sentiment_score": 37,
"velocity_score": 72,
"acceleration_score": 95,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.33,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 79,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T08:05:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T09:05:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 30,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": -19,
"acceleration_score": -91,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.4,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 23,
"fragility_score_0_100": 72,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T09:05:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T10:05:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 12,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": -18,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 1.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 0,
"fragility_score_0_100": 100,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T10:05:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T11:05:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -13,
"bullish_pressure_score": 12,
"bearish_pressure_score": 25,
"net_sentiment_score": -13,
"velocity_score": -13,
"acceleration_score": 5,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.48,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 77,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T11:05:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T12:05:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 17,
"bullish_pressure_score": 32,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 17,
"velocity_score": 30,
"acceleration_score": 43,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.47,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 27,
"fragility_score_0_100": 76,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T12:05:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T13:05:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 13,
"bullish_pressure_score": 25,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 13,
"velocity_score": -4,
"acceleration_score": -34,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.48,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 77,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T13:05:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T14:05:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -6,
"bullish_pressure_score": 22,
"bearish_pressure_score": 28,
"net_sentiment_score": -6,
"velocity_score": -19,
"acceleration_score": -15,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.79,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 12,
"fragility_score_0_100": 87,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T14:05:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T15:05:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 12,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 6,
"acceleration_score": 25,
"contradiction_ratio": 1.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 0,
"fragility_score_0_100": 100,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T15:05:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T16:05:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 13,
"bullish_pressure_score": 25,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 13,
"velocity_score": 13,
"acceleration_score": 7,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.48,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 77,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T16:05:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T17:05:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 12,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": -13,
"acceleration_score": -26,
"contradiction_ratio": 1.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 0,
"fragility_score_0_100": 100,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T17:05:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T18:05:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 12,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 13,
"contradiction_ratio": 1.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 0,
"fragility_score_0_100": 100,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T18:05:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T19:05:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 12,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 1.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 0,
"fragility_score_0_100": 100,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T19:05:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T20:05:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -4,
"bullish_pressure_score": 18,
"bearish_pressure_score": 22,
"net_sentiment_score": -4,
"velocity_score": -4,
"acceleration_score": -4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.82,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 9,
"fragility_score_0_100": 90,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T20:05:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T21:05:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 30,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": 24,
"acceleration_score": 28,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.33,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 32,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T21:05:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T22:05:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 25,
"bullish_pressure_score": 40,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 25,
"velocity_score": 5,
"acceleration_score": -19,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.38,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 37,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": -35,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 29,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
},
"diagnostics": {
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 12,
"cross_domain_merges": 3,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Target scope resolved explicitly from flight_plan.target_market_code=crude_oil.",
"No usable trend_state_memory provided; state_change treated as new vs unknown prior.",
"Reversal risk elevated due to mixed drivers (disruption-risk vs inventories/strategic releases) and high contradiction ratio in multiple recent buckets."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}
}