Snapshot

  • subject_area: Brent crude oil futures
  • target_market_code: crude_oil
  • ticker: null
  • regime_state: unstable
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: headline_whipsaw_risk
  • generated_at: 2026-03-18T14:10:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
crude_oil B-CO-01 Brent-linked crude complex retains an upside bias over the next 6–24h as Middle East geopolitical + maritime security risk premia remain elevated (Hormuz/chokepoint framing, CENTCOM/maritime-security narratives, regional security incidents). 60 up accelerating 24h false 62
crude_oil B-CO-02 Near-term pullbacks are plausible if macro-demand framing strengthens (rates/financial conditions narrative dominates) and offsets the supply-risk premium. 43 down stable 24h false 62
crude_oil B-CO-03 Volatility remains elevated (headline-driven) even if net direction stays positive, due to fast-changing geopolitical/maritime updates and mixed macro overlays. 70 mixed stable 6h false 62

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-crude_oil-20260318T141000Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-18T14:10:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Brent crude oil futures",
 "market_code": "crude_oil"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 64,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "crude_oil",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "crude_oil"
 ],
 "regime_state": "unstable",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-CO-01",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "claim": "Brent-linked crude complex retains an upside bias over the next 6\u201324h as Middle East geopolitical + maritime security risk premia remain elevated (Hormuz/chokepoint framing, CENTCOM/maritime-security narratives, regional security incidents).",
 "probability_pct": 60,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "T-006",
 "T-024",
 "T-007",
 "T-013",
 "T-003",
 "T-001",
 "T-002"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "T-009",
 "T-017",
 "VIP-001"
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-CO-02",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "claim": "Near-term pullbacks are plausible if macro-demand framing strengthens (rates/financial conditions narrative dominates) and offsets the supply-risk premium.",
 "probability_pct": 43,
 "direction": "down",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "T-009",
 "T-017",
 "VIP-001"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "T-002",
 "T-006",
 "T-024"
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-CO-03",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "claim": "Volatility remains elevated (headline-driven) even if net direction stays positive, due to fast-changing geopolitical/maritime updates and mixed macro overlays.",
 "probability_pct": 70,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "T-006",
 "T-003",
 "T-024",
 "T-009",
 "RA-002"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": []
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "new_bullish",
 "conviction_score_0_100": 64,
 "freshness_confidence": "high",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-CO-01",
 "B-CO-03"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-CO-01",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "flag": "headline_whipsaw_risk",
 "severity": "medium",
 "rationale": "Dominant drivers are geopolitical/maritime-security narratives with fast update cadence; direction can persist but intraday swings likely."
 },
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-CO-02",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "flag": "macro_overlay_contradiction",
 "severity": "medium",
 "rationale": "Macro-policy/demand framing (Fed/macro developments) can partially offset supply-risk premium, raising reversal risk."
 },
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-CO-03",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "flag": "single_source_outlier_noise",
 "severity": "low",
 "rationale": "Multiple VIP/risk items are single-source (echo-risk flagged) and should not dominate conviction without corroboration."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If new, high-authority confirmation of Hormuz/maritime disruption risk arrives (<=6h) without equally fresh de-escalation signals."
 },
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "confidence": "high",
 "trigger_condition": "If fresh geopolitical/maritime headlines continue to cluster (multiple updates within 1\u20133h), regardless of direction."
 },
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If macro-demand narrative strengthens abruptly (fresh signals implying tighter financial conditions / weaker demand) and directional score drops toward neutral."
 },
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "action": "stay_flat",
 "confidence": "low",
 "trigger_condition": "If directional score compresses into neutral (|score| < 20) while contradiction ratio rises."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "crude_oil"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 5,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 53,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 48,
 "net_sentiment_score": 5,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.38,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 10,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 72,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 8,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 54,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 46,
 "net_sentiment_score": 8,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.36,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 10,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 70,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 59,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 41,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": 10,
 "acceleration_score": 7,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.32,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 20,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 67,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 60,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 40,
 "net_sentiment_score": 20,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": -8,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 22,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 65,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 25,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 63,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 38,
 "net_sentiment_score": 25,
 "velocity_score": 5,
 "acceleration_score": 3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 28,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 35,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 68,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 32,
 "net_sentiment_score": 35,
 "velocity_score": 10,
 "acceleration_score": 5,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 38,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 32,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 66,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 34,
 "net_sentiment_score": 32,
 "velocity_score": -3,
 "acceleration_score": -13,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 35,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 65,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 35,
 "net_sentiment_score": 30,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 33,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 33,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 67,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 33,
 "net_sentiment_score": 33,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 5,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 36,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 40,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 70,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
 "net_sentiment_score": 40,
 "velocity_score": 7,
 "acceleration_score": 4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 44,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 38,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 69,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 31,
 "net_sentiment_score": 38,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": -9,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 42,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 44,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 72,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 28,
 "net_sentiment_score": 44,
 "velocity_score": 6,
 "acceleration_score": 8,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 48,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 59,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 46,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 73,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 27,
 "net_sentiment_score": 46,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": -4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 51,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 50,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 75,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 25,
 "net_sentiment_score": 50,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 55,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 54,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 77,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 23,
 "net_sentiment_score": 54,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 59,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 52,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 76,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 24,
 "net_sentiment_score": 52,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": -6,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 57,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 56,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 78,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 22,
 "net_sentiment_score": 56,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 6,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 55,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 78,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 22,
 "net_sentiment_score": 55,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -5,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 61,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 59,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 58,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 79,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 21,
 "net_sentiment_score": 58,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 64,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 60,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 80,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 60,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 66,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 57,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 79,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 21,
 "net_sentiment_score": 57,
 "velocity_score": -3,
 "acceleration_score": -5,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 63,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 62,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 81,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 19,
 "net_sentiment_score": 62,
 "velocity_score": 5,
 "acceleration_score": 8,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 68,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 60,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 80,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 60,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": -7,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 66,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 58,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 79,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 21,
 "net_sentiment_score": 58,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 64,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 62,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "down",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 12,
 "signal_regime": "weakening_bullish"
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 12,
 "cross_domain_merges": 2,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Prior state not provided; state_change computed assuming neutral prior baseline for state-machine initialisation.",
 "Directional interpretation emphasises oil price impact (supply-risk premium) rather than generic article sentiment labels."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
 }
}