Snapshot
- subject_area: Brent crude oil futures
- target_market_code: crude_oil
- ticker: null
- regime_state: unstable
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: headline_whipsaw_risk
- generated_at: 2026-03-18T14:10:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| crude_oil | B-CO-01 | Brent-linked crude complex retains an upside bias over the next 6–24h as Middle East geopolitical + maritime security risk premia remain elevated (Hormuz/chokepoint framing, CENTCOM/maritime-security narratives, regional security incidents). | 60 | up | accelerating | 24h | false | 62 |
| crude_oil | B-CO-02 | Near-term pullbacks are plausible if macro-demand framing strengthens (rates/financial conditions narrative dominates) and offsets the supply-risk premium. | 43 | down | stable | 24h | false | 62 |
| crude_oil | B-CO-03 | Volatility remains elevated (headline-driven) even if net direction stays positive, due to fast-changing geopolitical/maritime updates and mixed macro overlays. | 70 | mixed | stable | 6h | false | 62 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-crude_oil-20260318T141000Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-18T14:10:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Brent crude oil futures",
"market_code": "crude_oil"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "crude_oil",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"crude_oil"
],
"regime_state": "unstable",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-CO-01",
"market": "crude_oil",
"claim": "Brent-linked crude complex retains an upside bias over the next 6\u201324h as Middle East geopolitical + maritime security risk premia remain elevated (Hormuz/chokepoint framing, CENTCOM/maritime-security narratives, regional security incidents).",
"probability_pct": 60,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"T-006",
"T-024",
"T-007",
"T-013",
"T-003",
"T-001",
"T-002"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"T-009",
"T-017",
"VIP-001"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-CO-02",
"market": "crude_oil",
"claim": "Near-term pullbacks are plausible if macro-demand framing strengthens (rates/financial conditions narrative dominates) and offsets the supply-risk premium.",
"probability_pct": 43,
"direction": "down",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"T-009",
"T-017",
"VIP-001"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"T-002",
"T-006",
"T-024"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-CO-03",
"market": "crude_oil",
"claim": "Volatility remains elevated (headline-driven) even if net direction stays positive, due to fast-changing geopolitical/maritime updates and mixed macro overlays.",
"probability_pct": 70,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"T-006",
"T-003",
"T-024",
"T-009",
"RA-002"
],
"contradicted_by": []
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"freshness_confidence": "high",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-CO-01",
"B-CO-03"
]
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF-CO-01",
"market": "crude_oil",
"flag": "headline_whipsaw_risk",
"severity": "medium",
"rationale": "Dominant drivers are geopolitical/maritime-security narratives with fast update cadence; direction can persist but intraday swings likely."
},
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF-CO-02",
"market": "crude_oil",
"flag": "macro_overlay_contradiction",
"severity": "medium",
"rationale": "Macro-policy/demand framing (Fed/macro developments) can partially offset supply-risk premium, raising reversal risk."
},
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF-CO-03",
"market": "crude_oil",
"flag": "single_source_outlier_noise",
"severity": "low",
"rationale": "Multiple VIP/risk items are single-source (echo-risk flagged) and should not dominate conviction without corroboration."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If new, high-authority confirmation of Hormuz/maritime disruption risk arrives (<=6h) without equally fresh de-escalation signals."
},
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"confidence": "high",
"trigger_condition": "If fresh geopolitical/maritime headlines continue to cluster (multiple updates within 1\u20133h), regardless of direction."
},
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If macro-demand narrative strengthens abruptly (fresh signals implying tighter financial conditions / weaker demand) and directional score drops toward neutral."
},
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"action": "stay_flat",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "If directional score compresses into neutral (|score| < 20) while contradiction ratio rises."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"crude_oil"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 5,
"bullish_pressure_score": 53,
"bearish_pressure_score": 48,
"net_sentiment_score": 5,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.38,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 10,
"fragility_score_0_100": 72,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 54,
"bearish_pressure_score": 46,
"net_sentiment_score": 8,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.36,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 10,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 59,
"bearish_pressure_score": 41,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 10,
"acceleration_score": 7,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.32,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 67,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 60,
"bearish_pressure_score": 40,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -8,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 22,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 25,
"bullish_pressure_score": 63,
"bearish_pressure_score": 38,
"net_sentiment_score": 25,
"velocity_score": 5,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 28,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 35,
"bullish_pressure_score": 68,
"bearish_pressure_score": 32,
"net_sentiment_score": 35,
"velocity_score": 10,
"acceleration_score": 5,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 38,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 32,
"bullish_pressure_score": 66,
"bearish_pressure_score": 34,
"net_sentiment_score": 32,
"velocity_score": -3,
"acceleration_score": -13,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 35,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 65,
"bearish_pressure_score": 35,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 33,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 33,
"bullish_pressure_score": 67,
"bearish_pressure_score": 33,
"net_sentiment_score": 33,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 5,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 36,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 40,
"bullish_pressure_score": 70,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 40,
"velocity_score": 7,
"acceleration_score": 4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 38,
"bullish_pressure_score": 69,
"bearish_pressure_score": 31,
"net_sentiment_score": 38,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -9,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 42,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 44,
"bullish_pressure_score": 72,
"bearish_pressure_score": 28,
"net_sentiment_score": 44,
"velocity_score": 6,
"acceleration_score": 8,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 46,
"bullish_pressure_score": 73,
"bearish_pressure_score": 27,
"net_sentiment_score": 46,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 51,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 50,
"bullish_pressure_score": 75,
"bearish_pressure_score": 25,
"net_sentiment_score": 50,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 54,
"bullish_pressure_score": 77,
"bearish_pressure_score": 23,
"net_sentiment_score": 54,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 59,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 52,
"bullish_pressure_score": 76,
"bearish_pressure_score": 24,
"net_sentiment_score": 52,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 57,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 56,
"bullish_pressure_score": 78,
"bearish_pressure_score": 22,
"net_sentiment_score": 56,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 55,
"bullish_pressure_score": 78,
"bearish_pressure_score": 22,
"net_sentiment_score": 55,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -5,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 61,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 58,
"bullish_pressure_score": 79,
"bearish_pressure_score": 21,
"net_sentiment_score": 58,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 60,
"bullish_pressure_score": 80,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 60,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 57,
"bullish_pressure_score": 79,
"bearish_pressure_score": 21,
"net_sentiment_score": 57,
"velocity_score": -3,
"acceleration_score": -5,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 62,
"bullish_pressure_score": 81,
"bearish_pressure_score": 19,
"net_sentiment_score": 62,
"velocity_score": 5,
"acceleration_score": 8,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 68,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 60,
"bullish_pressure_score": 80,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 60,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -7,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 58,
"bullish_pressure_score": 79,
"bearish_pressure_score": 21,
"net_sentiment_score": 58,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 62,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "down",
"latest_inflection_strength": 12,
"signal_regime": "weakening_bullish"
},
"diagnostics": {
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 12,
"cross_domain_merges": 2,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Prior state not provided; state_change computed assuming neutral prior baseline for state-machine initialisation.",
"Directional interpretation emphasises oil price impact (supply-risk premium) rather than generic article sentiment labels."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}
}