Snapshot
- subject_area: Brent crude oil futures
- target_market_code: crude_oil
- ticker: crude_oil
- regime_state: unstable
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: contradiction_spike (high)
- generated_at: 2026-03-18T12:00:00Z
- sentiment_word: Reversal-Risk
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| crude_oil | B1_geopolitical_risk_premium_supports_oil | Near-term crude oil risk premium remains supported by Middle East geopolitical tension plus elevated perceived oil-transit/chokepoint risk. | 58 | up | fading | 6h | false | 78 |
| crude_oil | B2_macro_policy_caps_upside | Macro/monetary-policy and inflation-rate narratives are acting as a near-term cap on crude upside (demand-risk and risk-asset sensitivity), increasing two-way risk. | 55 | down | accelerating | 24h | false | 78 |
| crude_oil | B3_inventory_tightness_bias | Inventory/physical market narratives are modestly supportive (tightness bias), but evidence quality is mixed and does not dominate macro/geopolitics. | 54 | up | stable | 24h | false | 78 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "cis_crude_oil_2026-03-18T12:00:00Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-18T12:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Brent crude oil futures",
"market_code": "crude_oil"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Reversal-Risk Fragile",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 53,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 78,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "crude_oil",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"crude_oil"
],
"regime_state": "unstable",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B1_geopolitical_risk_premium_supports_oil",
"market": "crude_oil",
"claim": "Near-term crude oil risk premium remains supported by Middle East geopolitical tension plus elevated perceived oil-transit/chokepoint risk.",
"probability_pct": 58,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"Iran/Iraq conflict escalation narratives (fresh, high heat)",
"Oil transit / maritime chokepoint risk narratives (fresh, high heat)"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B2_macro_policy_caps_upside"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B2_macro_policy_caps_upside",
"market": "crude_oil",
"claim": "Macro/monetary-policy and inflation-rate narratives are acting as a near-term cap on crude upside (demand-risk and risk-asset sensitivity), increasing two-way risk.",
"probability_pct": 55,
"direction": "down",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"Fed interest-rate/inflation focus (fresh, high heat)",
"Oil: interest rates & monetary policy theme (recent, high heat)"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B1_geopolitical_risk_premium_supports_oil",
"B3_inventory_tightness_bias"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B3_inventory_tightness_bias",
"market": "crude_oil",
"claim": "Inventory/physical market narratives are modestly supportive (tightness bias), but evidence quality is mixed and does not dominate macro/geopolitics.",
"probability_pct": 54,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"Brent crude: physical crude & product inventories theme (recent)",
"Refinery outage / operational risk snippets (sparse, low corroboration)"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B2_macro_policy_caps_upside"
]
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"directional_state": "neutral_mixed",
"momentum_state": "weakening",
"reversal_risk": "high",
"state_change": "unchanged",
"conviction_score_0_100": 53,
"freshness_confidence": "high",
"catalyst_type": "reversal_warning",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 78,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B1_geopolitical_risk_premium_supports_oil",
"B2_macro_policy_caps_upside",
"B3_inventory_tightness_bias"
]
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "contradiction_spike",
"market": "crude_oil",
"severity": "high",
"details": "Fresh high-heat geopolitics/shipping-risk signals are being countered by fresh high-heat macro/monetary-policy signals."
},
{
"flag": "narrative_whipsaw",
"market": "crude_oil",
"severity": "high",
"details": "Directional pressure recently peaked bullish (risk-premium burst) but has cooled into mixed conditions as macro headwinds reassert."
},
{
"flag": "low_corroboration_outlier_noise",
"market": "crude_oil",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "Several operational/refinery/outage and inventory VIP/risk items are single-source and should be treated as noisy unless corroborated."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"confidence": "high",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"trigger_condition": "If a fresh (<=2h) authoritative macro shock or de-escalation headline appears while geopolitics pressure is already fading, treat as potential direction flip catalyst."
},
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"confidence": "high",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"trigger_condition": "Maintain heightened volatility posture while both geopolitics/shipping and macro policy narratives remain simultaneously active."
},
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "stay_flat",
"trigger_condition": "Remain in neutral/mixed stance while directional score stays within [-20,+20] and contradiction ratio remains elevated."
},
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"confidence": "low",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"trigger_condition": "If shipping/chokepoint and conflict signals re-accelerate and macro headwinds soften (contradiction ratio declines), bias may tilt bullish."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [
"crude_oil"
],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": [
"crude_oil"
]
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
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"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T09:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 40,
"bearish_pressure_score": 22,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 6,
"acceleration_score": 4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.35,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 78,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T09:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 14,
"bullish_pressure_score": 22,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 14,
"velocity_score": -4,
"acceleration_score": -10,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.27,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 40,
"fragility_score_0_100": 80,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T10:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 5,
"bullish_pressure_score": 14,
"bearish_pressure_score": 9,
"net_sentiment_score": 5,
"velocity_score": -9,
"acceleration_score": -5,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.39,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 22,
"fragility_score_0_100": 86,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T10:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 6,
"bullish_pressure_score": 10,
"bearish_pressure_score": 4,
"net_sentiment_score": 6,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 10,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.29,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 18,
"fragility_score_0_100": 84,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T11:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 12,
"bearish_pressure_score": 4,
"net_sentiment_score": 8,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 82,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T11:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 7,
"bullish_pressure_score": 10,
"bearish_pressure_score": 3,
"net_sentiment_score": 7,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 18,
"fragility_score_0_100": 84,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
}
]
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 22,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": -4,
"latest_inflection_direction": "down",
"latest_inflection_strength": 6,
"signal_regime": "weakening_bullish"
},
"diagnostics": {
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 12,
"cross_domain_merges": 3,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 12,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"No trend_state_memory/prior market_state_table provided; state_change set to 'unchanged' with unknown prior."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}
}