Snapshot

  • subject_area: Brent crude oil futures
  • target_market_code: crude_oil
  • ticker: crude_oil
  • regime_state: unstable
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: contradiction_spike (high)
  • generated_at: 2026-03-18T12:00:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Reversal-Risk
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
crude_oil B1_geopolitical_risk_premium_supports_oil Near-term crude oil risk premium remains supported by Middle East geopolitical tension plus elevated perceived oil-transit/chokepoint risk. 58 up fading 6h false 78
crude_oil B2_macro_policy_caps_upside Macro/monetary-policy and inflation-rate narratives are acting as a near-term cap on crude upside (demand-risk and risk-asset sensitivity), increasing two-way risk. 55 down accelerating 24h false 78
crude_oil B3_inventory_tightness_bias Inventory/physical market narratives are modestly supportive (tightness bias), but evidence quality is mixed and does not dominate macro/geopolitics. 54 up stable 24h false 78

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "cis_crude_oil_2026-03-18T12:00:00Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-18T12:00:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Brent crude oil futures",
 "market_code": "crude_oil"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Reversal-Risk Fragile",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 53,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 78,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "crude_oil",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "crude_oil"
 ],
 "regime_state": "unstable",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B1_geopolitical_risk_premium_supports_oil",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "claim": "Near-term crude oil risk premium remains supported by Middle East geopolitical tension plus elevated perceived oil-transit/chokepoint risk.",
 "probability_pct": 58,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "fading",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "Iran/Iraq conflict escalation narratives (fresh, high heat)",
 "Oil transit / maritime chokepoint risk narratives (fresh, high heat)"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B2_macro_policy_caps_upside"
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B2_macro_policy_caps_upside",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "claim": "Macro/monetary-policy and inflation-rate narratives are acting as a near-term cap on crude upside (demand-risk and risk-asset sensitivity), increasing two-way risk.",
 "probability_pct": 55,
 "direction": "down",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "Fed interest-rate/inflation focus (fresh, high heat)",
 "Oil: interest rates & monetary policy theme (recent, high heat)"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B1_geopolitical_risk_premium_supports_oil",
 "B3_inventory_tightness_bias"
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B3_inventory_tightness_bias",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "claim": "Inventory/physical market narratives are modestly supportive (tightness bias), but evidence quality is mixed and does not dominate macro/geopolitics.",
 "probability_pct": 54,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "Brent crude: physical crude & product inventories theme (recent)",
 "Refinery outage / operational risk snippets (sparse, low corroboration)"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B2_macro_policy_caps_upside"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "directional_state": "neutral_mixed",
 "momentum_state": "weakening",
 "reversal_risk": "high",
 "state_change": "unchanged",
 "conviction_score_0_100": 53,
 "freshness_confidence": "high",
 "catalyst_type": "reversal_warning",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 78,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B1_geopolitical_risk_premium_supports_oil",
 "B2_macro_policy_caps_upside",
 "B3_inventory_tightness_bias"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag": "contradiction_spike",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "severity": "high",
 "details": "Fresh high-heat geopolitics/shipping-risk signals are being countered by fresh high-heat macro/monetary-policy signals."
 },
 {
 "flag": "narrative_whipsaw",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "severity": "high",
 "details": "Directional pressure recently peaked bullish (risk-premium burst) but has cooled into mixed conditions as macro headwinds reassert."
 },
 {
 "flag": "low_corroboration_outlier_noise",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "severity": "medium",
 "details": "Several operational/refinery/outage and inventory VIP/risk items are single-source and should be treated as noisy unless corroborated."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "confidence": "high",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "If a fresh (<=2h) authoritative macro shock or de-escalation headline appears while geopolitics pressure is already fading, treat as potential direction flip catalyst."
 },
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "confidence": "high",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "Maintain heightened volatility posture while both geopolitics/shipping and macro policy narratives remain simultaneously active."
 },
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action": "stay_flat",
 "trigger_condition": "Remain in neutral/mixed stance while directional score stays within [-20,+20] and contradiction ratio remains elevated."
 },
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "confidence": "low",
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "trigger_condition": "If shipping/chokepoint and conflict signals re-accelerate and macro headwinds soften (contradiction ratio declines), bias may tilt bullish."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [
 "crude_oil"
 ],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": [
 "crude_oil"
 ]
 },
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 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T09:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 40,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 22,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": 6,
 "acceleration_score": 4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.35,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 50,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 78,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T09:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 14,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 22,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 8,
 "net_sentiment_score": 14,
 "velocity_score": -4,
 "acceleration_score": -10,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.27,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 40,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 80,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T10:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 5,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 14,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 9,
 "net_sentiment_score": 5,
 "velocity_score": -9,
 "acceleration_score": -5,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.39,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 22,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 86,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T10:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 6,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 10,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 4,
 "net_sentiment_score": 6,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 10,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.29,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 18,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 84,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T11:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 8,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 12,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 4,
 "net_sentiment_score": 8,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 20,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 82,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T11:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 7,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 10,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 3,
 "net_sentiment_score": 7,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 18,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 84,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 }
 ]
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 22,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": -4,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "down",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 6,
 "signal_regime": "weakening_bullish"
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 12,
 "cross_domain_merges": 3,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 12,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "No trend_state_memory/prior market_state_table provided; state_change set to 'unchanged' with unknown prior."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
 }
}