Snapshot
- subject_area: Brent crude oil futures
- target_market_code: crude_oil
- ticker:
- regime_state: unstable
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: event_risk_volatility_geopolitics_shipping
- generated_at: 2026-03-18T00:31:08Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| crude_oil | B-CO-001 | Near-term disruption-risk premium remains elevated (Hormuz/Fujairah security + maritime security posture), biasing Brent upward versus a no-event baseline. | 60 | up | accelerating | 6h | false | 64 |
| crude_oil | B-CO-002 | Supply tightness narratives (Russia supply tightness + supply disruption messaging) keep upside tail-risk elevated into the next day, even if spot headlines fade. | 57 | up | stable | 24h | false | 64 |
| crude_oil | B-CO-003 | Reversal/pullback risk is meaningful if fresh signals shift toward demand/inventory softness (macro-demand headwinds or inventory build framing) and no new disruption headlines print. | 40 | mixed | fading | 24h | false | 64 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "CIS-20260318T003108Z-crude_oil",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-18T00:31:08Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Brent crude oil futures",
"market_code": "crude_oil"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "crude_oil",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"crude_oil"
],
"regime_state": "unstable",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-CO-001",
"market": "crude_oil",
"claim": "Near-term disruption-risk premium remains elevated (Hormuz/Fujairah security + maritime security posture), biasing Brent upward versus a no-event baseline.",
"probability_pct": 60,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"T-003",
"T-013",
"T-020",
"T-004"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-CO-003"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-CO-002",
"market": "crude_oil",
"claim": "Supply tightness narratives (Russia supply tightness + supply disruption messaging) keep upside tail-risk elevated into the next day, even if spot headlines fade.",
"probability_pct": 57,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"T-014",
"T-016",
"T-055",
"T-041"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-CO-003"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-CO-003",
"market": "crude_oil",
"claim": "Reversal/pullback risk is meaningful if fresh signals shift toward demand/inventory softness (macro-demand headwinds or inventory build framing) and no new disruption headlines print.",
"probability_pct": 40,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"T-006",
"T-033",
"T-005"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-CO-001",
"B-CO-002"
]
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "unchanged",
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"freshness_confidence": "medium",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-CO-001",
"B-CO-002"
]
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "event_risk_volatility_geopolitics_shipping",
"severity": "high",
"market": "crude_oil",
"details": "Directional support is driven by discrete geopolitical/shipping-security headlines; de-escalation or quiet headline tape can compress the premium quickly."
},
{
"flag": "authority_mix_contains_low_tier_echo_risk_pockets",
"severity": "medium",
"market": "crude_oil",
"details": "Some supporting items include single-source/low-tier VIP or seed anomalies; they are not thesis-critical but raise overall fragility."
},
{
"flag": "macro_inventory_counterweight_present",
"severity": "medium",
"market": "crude_oil",
"details": "Inventory/macro framing exists in the evidence set and can act as counter-pressure if it becomes the dominant fresh narrative."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"market": "crude_oil",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Additional high-authority (Tier A/B) updates within the next 6h reinforce disruption risk (Hormuz/Fujairah/UKMTO-style) without a matching demand/inventory-soft counterprint."
},
{
"action": "volatility_watch",
"market": "crude_oil",
"confidence": "high",
"trigger_condition": "Any new security/shipping incident headline inside key chokepoints OR explicit de-escalation headlines within the next 2\u20136h."
},
{
"action": "reversal_watch",
"market": "crude_oil",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Fresh macro-demand or inventory-build narrative accelerates (multiple sources) while disruption headlines go quiet for >6h."
},
{
"action": "stay_flat",
"market": "crude_oil",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "Contradictory evidence rises materially (mixed prints) and directional score compresses back into neutral band (|score| < 20)."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"crude_oil"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T00:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T01:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 5,
"bullish_pressure_score": 5,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 5,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 24,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T01:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T02:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 6,
"bullish_pressure_score": 6,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 6,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 25,
"fragility_score_0_100": 69,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T02:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T03:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 8,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 8,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 26,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T03:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T04:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 10,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 28,
"fragility_score_0_100": 67,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T04:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T05:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 12,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 30,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T05:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T06:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 15,
"bullish_pressure_score": 15,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 15,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 32,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T06:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T07:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 22,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 7,
"acceleration_score": 4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 38,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T07:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T08:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 38,
"bullish_pressure_score": 38,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 38,
"velocity_score": 16,
"acceleration_score": 9,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T08:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T09:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 52,
"bullish_pressure_score": 52,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 52,
"velocity_score": 14,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.27,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T09:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T10:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 46,
"bullish_pressure_score": 46,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 46,
"velocity_score": -6,
"acceleration_score": -20,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 57,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T10:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T11:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 40,
"bullish_pressure_score": 40,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 40,
"velocity_score": -6,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T11:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T12:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 36,
"bullish_pressure_score": 36,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 36,
"velocity_score": -4,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 49,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T12:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T13:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 33,
"bullish_pressure_score": 33,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 33,
"velocity_score": -3,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T13:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T14:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 31,
"bullish_pressure_score": 31,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 31,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T14:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T15:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 29,
"bullish_pressure_score": 29,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 29,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 43,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T15:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T16:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 30,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T16:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T17:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 33,
"bullish_pressure_score": 33,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 33,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T17:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T18:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 36,
"bullish_pressure_score": 36,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 36,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 49,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T18:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T19:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 35,
"bullish_pressure_score": 35,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 35,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T19:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T20:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 33,
"bullish_pressure_score": 33,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 33,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T20:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T21:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 34,
"bullish_pressure_score": 34,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 34,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 47,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T21:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T22:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 38,
"bullish_pressure_score": 38,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 38,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T22:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T23:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 40,
"bullish_pressure_score": 40,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 40,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T23:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T00:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 42,
"bullish_pressure_score": 42,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 42,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 52,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 9,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 12,
"cross_domain_merges": 2,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"No explicit trend_physics/trend_state_memory provided in input; used legacy approximations (sentiment, velocity_hint, temporal_profile, recency proxies).",
"Prior market state not supplied; state_change set to 'unchanged' with unknown_prior fallback."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}