Snapshot

  • subject_area: Uranium (U3O8) / nuclear fuel cycle
  • target_market_code: uranium
  • ticker:
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 4
  • top_risk_flag: authority_mix_skew_low (medium)
  • generated_at: 2026-03-17T22:00:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim (trimmed) prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
uranium B-UR-001 Policy/regulatory support and ongoing nuclear build-out narratives are sustaining near-term bullish bias in uranium-linked pricing. 62 up stable 24h false 58
uranium B-UR-002 Geopolitical and supply-chain risk narratives (producers/transport/regulatory frictions) are supporting a risk-premium, skewing uranium sentiment upward. 60 up accelerating 24h false 58
uranium B-UR-003 Mining / project-development headlines are additive to bullish sentiment but remain fragile due to single-source/low-diversity evidence pockets. 55 up fading 6h false 58
uranium B-UR-004 Headline-driven flow with uneven authority mix increases whipsaw/mean-reversion risk even if the net tone stays bullish. 57 mixed accelerating 6h false 58

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-uranium-20260317T220000Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-17T22:00:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Uranium (U3O8) / nuclear fuel cycle",
 "market_code": "uranium"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 64,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "uranium",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "uranium"
 ],
 "regime_state": "tightening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-UR-001",
 "market": "uranium",
 "claim": "Policy/regulatory support and ongoing nuclear build-out narratives are sustaining near-term bullish bias in uranium-linked pricing.",
 "probability_pct": 62,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "policy_nuclear",
 "reactor_demand"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-UR-004"
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-UR-002",
 "market": "uranium",
 "claim": "Geopolitical and supply-chain risk narratives (producers/transport/regulatory frictions) are supporting a risk-premium, skewing uranium sentiment upward.",
 "probability_pct": 60,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "geopolitical_supply_risk",
 "supply_contracting"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-UR-004"
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-UR-003",
 "market": "uranium",
 "claim": "Mining / project-development headlines are additive to bullish sentiment but remain fragile due to single-source/low-diversity evidence pockets.",
 "probability_pct": 55,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "fading",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "inventory",
 "supply_contracting"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-UR-004"
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-UR-004",
 "market": "uranium",
 "claim": "Headline-driven flow with uneven authority mix increases whipsaw/mean-reversion risk even if the net tone stays bullish.",
 "probability_pct": 57,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "geopolitical_supply_risk",
 "policy_nuclear"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-UR-001",
 "B-UR-002"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "uranium",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "new_bullish",
 "conviction_score_0_100": 64,
 "freshness_confidence": "medium",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-UR-001",
 "B-UR-002",
 "B-UR-003"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag": "authority_mix_skew_low",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "Multiple supporting narratives show high low-authority share / single-source pockets (VIP lane), increasing noise sensitivity."
 },
 {
 "flag": "narrative_whipsaw_risk",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "Policy/geopolitics-driven uranium narratives can flip quickly; current tape shows broadly positive tone but with elevated fragility."
 },
 {
 "flag": "data_density_uneven",
 "severity": "low",
 "detail": "Core trends are well-reinforced, but several incremental signals are singleton and should be treated as weak additives."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "uranium",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "trigger_condition": "If additional fresh high-authority confirmations arrive without an opposing catalyst cluster in the next 6h."
 },
 {
 "market": "uranium",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "If contradiction increases (new opposing themes) or if singleton/VIP items begin to propagate across higher-authority domains."
 },
 {
 "market": "uranium",
 "confidence": "low",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "If a fresh (<=2h) high-authority opposing signal appears tied to supply release, demand downgrades, or policy reversal."
 },
 {
 "market": "uranium",
 "confidence": "low",
 "action": "stay_flat",
 "trigger_condition": "If net sentiment falls back into neutral band (directional score between -20 and +20) with rising contradiction."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "uranium"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 30,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 44,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 19,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 31,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 19,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 45,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 33,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 13,
 "net_sentiment_score": 20,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 47,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 21,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 34,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 13,
 "net_sentiment_score": 21,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 48,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 35,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 13,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 49,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 23,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 36,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 13,
 "net_sentiment_score": 23,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 50,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 24,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 37,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 13,
 "net_sentiment_score": 24,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 59,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 26,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 40,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
 "net_sentiment_score": 26,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 55,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 59,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 26,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 40,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
 "net_sentiment_score": 26,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 55,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 59,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 27,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 41,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
 "net_sentiment_score": 27,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 59,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 27,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 41,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
 "net_sentiment_score": 27,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 59,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 28,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 42,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
 "net_sentiment_score": 28,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 57,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 29,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 44,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 15,
 "net_sentiment_score": 29,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 29,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 44,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 15,
 "net_sentiment_score": 29,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 45,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 15,
 "net_sentiment_score": 30,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 59,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 45,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 15,
 "net_sentiment_score": 30,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 59,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 31,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 46,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 15,
 "net_sentiment_score": 31,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 31,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 46,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 15,
 "net_sentiment_score": 31,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 32,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 48,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 16,
 "net_sentiment_score": 32,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 61,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 32,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 48,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 16,
 "net_sentiment_score": 32,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 61,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 33,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 49,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 16,
 "net_sentiment_score": 33,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 33,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 49,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 16,
 "net_sentiment_score": 33,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 34,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 51,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 17,
 "net_sentiment_score": 34,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 64,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 34,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 51,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 17,
 "net_sentiment_score": 34,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 64,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 34,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 1,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 12,
 "cross_domain_merges": 3,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": true,
 "notes": [
 "Target scope resolved explicitly to 'uranium'; single-market synthesis applied.",
 "No explicit contradiction objects provided; reversal risk inferred primarily from fragility (authority mix + singleton VIP pockets) rather than hard counter-trends.",
 "Per-signal physics (velocity/acceleration) not provided in input; timeseries values are conservative, structure-preserving approximations constrained to admitted evidence recency cues.",
 "Prior state not provided; state_change treated as neutral->bullish (new_bullish) under unknown_prior."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}