Snapshot
- subject_area: Uranium (U3O8) / nuclear fuel cycle
- target_market_code: uranium
- ticker:
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 4
- top_risk_flag: authority_mix_skew_low (medium)
- generated_at: 2026-03-17T22:00:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim (trimmed) | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| uranium | B-UR-001 | Policy/regulatory support and ongoing nuclear build-out narratives are sustaining near-term bullish bias in uranium-linked pricing. | 62 | up | stable | 24h | false | 58 |
| uranium | B-UR-002 | Geopolitical and supply-chain risk narratives (producers/transport/regulatory frictions) are supporting a risk-premium, skewing uranium sentiment upward. | 60 | up | accelerating | 24h | false | 58 |
| uranium | B-UR-003 | Mining / project-development headlines are additive to bullish sentiment but remain fragile due to single-source/low-diversity evidence pockets. | 55 | up | fading | 6h | false | 58 |
| uranium | B-UR-004 | Headline-driven flow with uneven authority mix increases whipsaw/mean-reversion risk even if the net tone stays bullish. | 57 | mixed | accelerating | 6h | false | 58 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-uranium-20260317T220000Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-17T22:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Uranium (U3O8) / nuclear fuel cycle",
"market_code": "uranium"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "uranium",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"uranium"
],
"regime_state": "tightening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-UR-001",
"market": "uranium",
"claim": "Policy/regulatory support and ongoing nuclear build-out narratives are sustaining near-term bullish bias in uranium-linked pricing.",
"probability_pct": 62,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"policy_nuclear",
"reactor_demand"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-UR-004"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-UR-002",
"market": "uranium",
"claim": "Geopolitical and supply-chain risk narratives (producers/transport/regulatory frictions) are supporting a risk-premium, skewing uranium sentiment upward.",
"probability_pct": 60,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"geopolitical_supply_risk",
"supply_contracting"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-UR-004"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-UR-003",
"market": "uranium",
"claim": "Mining / project-development headlines are additive to bullish sentiment but remain fragile due to single-source/low-diversity evidence pockets.",
"probability_pct": 55,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"inventory",
"supply_contracting"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-UR-004"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-UR-004",
"market": "uranium",
"claim": "Headline-driven flow with uneven authority mix increases whipsaw/mean-reversion risk even if the net tone stays bullish.",
"probability_pct": 57,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"geopolitical_supply_risk",
"policy_nuclear"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-UR-001",
"B-UR-002"
]
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "uranium",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"freshness_confidence": "medium",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-UR-001",
"B-UR-002",
"B-UR-003"
]
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "authority_mix_skew_low",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Multiple supporting narratives show high low-authority share / single-source pockets (VIP lane), increasing noise sensitivity."
},
{
"flag": "narrative_whipsaw_risk",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Policy/geopolitics-driven uranium narratives can flip quickly; current tape shows broadly positive tone but with elevated fragility."
},
{
"flag": "data_density_uneven",
"severity": "low",
"detail": "Core trends are well-reinforced, but several incremental signals are singleton and should be treated as weak additives."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "uranium",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"trigger_condition": "If additional fresh high-authority confirmations arrive without an opposing catalyst cluster in the next 6h."
},
{
"market": "uranium",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"trigger_condition": "If contradiction increases (new opposing themes) or if singleton/VIP items begin to propagate across higher-authority domains."
},
{
"market": "uranium",
"confidence": "low",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"trigger_condition": "If a fresh (<=2h) high-authority opposing signal appears tied to supply release, demand downgrades, or policy reversal."
},
{
"market": "uranium",
"confidence": "low",
"action": "stay_flat",
"trigger_condition": "If net sentiment falls back into neutral band (directional score between -20 and +20) with rising contradiction."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"uranium"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 30,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 19,
"bullish_pressure_score": 31,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 19,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 33,
"bearish_pressure_score": 13,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 47,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T01:00:00Z",
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"directional_score_signed": 21,
"bullish_pressure_score": 34,
"bearish_pressure_score": 13,
"net_sentiment_score": 21,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 35,
"bearish_pressure_score": 13,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 49,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 23,
"bullish_pressure_score": 36,
"bearish_pressure_score": 13,
"net_sentiment_score": 23,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 37,
"bearish_pressure_score": 13,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 26,
"bullish_pressure_score": 40,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 26,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 26,
"bullish_pressure_score": 40,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
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"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 27,
"bullish_pressure_score": 41,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
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"velocity_score": 1,
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"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 27,
"bullish_pressure_score": 41,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 27,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 42,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 57,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 29,
"bullish_pressure_score": 44,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 29,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 29,
"bullish_pressure_score": 44,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 29,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 45,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 59,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 45,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 59,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 31,
"bullish_pressure_score": 46,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 31,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 31,
"bullish_pressure_score": 46,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 31,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 32,
"bullish_pressure_score": 48,
"bearish_pressure_score": 16,
"net_sentiment_score": 32,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 61,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 32,
"bullish_pressure_score": 48,
"bearish_pressure_score": 16,
"net_sentiment_score": 32,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 61,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 33,
"bullish_pressure_score": 49,
"bearish_pressure_score": 16,
"net_sentiment_score": 33,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 33,
"bullish_pressure_score": 49,
"bearish_pressure_score": 16,
"net_sentiment_score": 33,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 34,
"bullish_pressure_score": 51,
"bearish_pressure_score": 17,
"net_sentiment_score": 34,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 34,
"bullish_pressure_score": 51,
"bearish_pressure_score": 17,
"net_sentiment_score": 34,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 34,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 1,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 12,
"cross_domain_merges": 3,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": true,
"notes": [
"Target scope resolved explicitly to 'uranium'; single-market synthesis applied.",
"No explicit contradiction objects provided; reversal risk inferred primarily from fragility (authority mix + singleton VIP pockets) rather than hard counter-trends.",
"Per-signal physics (velocity/acceleration) not provided in input; timeseries values are conservative, structure-preserving approximations constrained to admitted evidence recency cues.",
"Prior state not provided; state_change treated as neutral->bullish (new_bullish) under unknown_prior."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}