Snapshot
- subject_area: Uranium futures
- target_market_code: uranium
- ticker: uranium
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: data_quality_mixed_authority (medium)
- generated_at: 2026-03-17T06:00:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| uranium | B-UR-001 | Near-term uranium pricing bias remains upward as recent policy/regulatory signals and reactor build/SMR narratives reinforce demand expectations, while supply-chain/geopolitical framing stays supportive. | 63 | up | accelerating | 24h | false | 58 |
| uranium | B-UR-002 | Intraday (6h) uranium sentiment is improving (fresh clustered signals within the last ~1–4 hours), implying a higher likelihood of continued firming vs. mean reversion in the immediate window. | 58 | up | accelerating | 6h | false | 58 |
| uranium | B-UR-003 | Supply-side narrative (exploration/development headlines and geopolitical risk framing) is supportive but uneven in reliability; it boosts bullish bias while also raising fragility (susceptible to rapid invalidation if a credible supply-relief headline appears). | 61 | mixed | stable | 24h | false | 58 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-uranium-20260317T060000Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-17T06:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Uranium futures",
"market_code": "uranium"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "uranium",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"uranium"
],
"regime_state": "tightening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-UR-001",
"market": "uranium",
"claim": "Near-term uranium pricing bias remains upward as recent policy/regulatory signals and reactor build/SMR narratives reinforce demand expectations, while supply-chain/geopolitical framing stays supportive.",
"probability_pct": 63,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"policy_nuclear",
"reactor_demand",
"geopolitical_supply_risk"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Lack of explicit opposing (bearish) signals in current intake; downside would require new counter-evidence (e.g., policy reversal, demand disappointment, supply easing)."
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-UR-002",
"market": "uranium",
"claim": "Intraday (6h) uranium sentiment is improving (fresh clustered signals within the last ~1\u20134 hours), implying a higher likelihood of continued firming vs. mean reversion in the immediate window.",
"probability_pct": 58,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"policy_nuclear",
"inventory",
"supply_contracting"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"High share of lower-authority amplification in parts of the corpus increases noise/whipsaw risk."
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-UR-003",
"market": "uranium",
"claim": "Supply-side narrative (exploration/development headlines and geopolitical risk framing) is supportive but uneven in reliability; it boosts bullish bias while also raising fragility (susceptible to rapid invalidation if a credible supply-relief headline appears).",
"probability_pct": 61,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"supply_contracting",
"geopolitical_supply_risk"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Any high-authority confirmation of supply additions / de-risking would reduce this support quickly."
]
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "uranium",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"freshness_confidence": "medium",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-UR-001",
"B-UR-002",
"B-UR-003"
]
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"risk_flag": "data_quality_mixed_authority",
"market": "uranium",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "Multiple trends show high low-authority share / amplification; increases noise sensitivity despite broadly consistent bullish direction."
},
{
"risk_flag": "vip_single_source_echo_risk",
"market": "uranium",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "Several VIP outliers are single-source; treated as weak confirmation and primarily increase fragility rather than conviction."
},
{
"risk_flag": "narrative_whipsaw_risk",
"market": "uranium",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "Policy/regulatory narratives can flip quickly; watch for credible counter-headlines that could compress conviction intraday."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"action_label": "watch_long_bias",
"market": "uranium",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Maintain bullish monitoring stance while fresh policy/regulatory demand signals remain dominant and no high-authority bearish supply-relief signal appears."
},
{
"action_label": "reversal_watch",
"market": "uranium",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Escalate reversal monitoring if a high-authority opposing headline lands within a 2h window and contradiction indicators rise (e.g., multiple new opposing signals)."
},
{
"action_label": "volatility_watch",
"market": "uranium",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Expect choppier tape if single-source items dominate the newest flow without corroboration."
},
{
"action_label": "stay_flat",
"market": "uranium",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "Only if bullish flow stalls and fresh evidence density collapses (no meaningful updates for >24h) or contradiction rises materially."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"uranium"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 26,
"bullish_pressure_score": 42,
"bearish_pressure_score": 16,
"net_sentiment_score": 26,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T08:00:00Z",
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"bullish_pressure_score": 38,
"bearish_pressure_score": 16,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": -4,
"acceleration_score": -4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 38,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 36,
"bearish_pressure_score": 16,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 36,
"fragility_score_0_100": 71,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T09:00:00Z",
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"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 35,
"fragility_score_0_100": 72,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T11:00:00Z",
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"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 35,
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"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T11:00:00Z",
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"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T12:00:00Z",
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"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 34,
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},
{
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"stale_evidence_count": 0,
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},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T14:00:00Z",
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},
{
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"fragility_score_0_100": 67,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T17:00:00Z",
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"acceleration_score": -6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
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"stale_evidence_count": 0,
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"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T18:00:00Z",
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"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 37,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T19:00:00Z",
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"bearish_pressure_score": 16,
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"stale_evidence_count": 0,
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"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
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"bearish_pressure_score": 16,
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"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 38,
"fragility_score_0_100": 69,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
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"bearish_pressure_score": 16,
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"stale_evidence_count": 0,
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"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T22:00:00Z",
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"bearish_pressure_score": 17,
"net_sentiment_score": 33,
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"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T23:00:00Z",
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"bearish_pressure_score": 17,
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"velocity_score": -3,
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"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T00:00:00Z",
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"bearish_pressure_score": 17,
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"acceleration_score": 1,
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"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 42,
"fragility_score_0_100": 67,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T01:00:00Z",
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"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 41,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 45,
"bearish_pressure_score": 17,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 42,
"fragility_score_0_100": 67,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 36,
"bullish_pressure_score": 54,
"bearish_pressure_score": 18,
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"velocity_score": 8,
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"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 33,
"bullish_pressure_score": 51,
"bearish_pressure_score": 18,
"net_sentiment_score": 33,
"velocity_score": -3,
"acceleration_score": -11,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 47,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 34,
"bullish_pressure_score": 52,
"bearish_pressure_score": 18,
"net_sentiment_score": 34,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 55,
"bullish_pressure_score": 76,
"bearish_pressure_score": 21,
"net_sentiment_score": 55,
"velocity_score": 21,
"acceleration_score": 20,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 55,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 21,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
},
"diagnostics": {
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 12,
"cross_domain_merges": 3,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 0,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Directional synthesis is derived from trend/vip/risk objects provided; no external pricing or external news pull performed.",
"Freshness is supported by multiple signals timestamped on 2026-03-17 between 02:11Z and 05:57Z; however, many narratives are medium/long-horizon policy/regulatory in nature, which limits near-term conviction.",
"VIP outliers and reputational-amplifier risk anomalies were treated primarily as fragility/quality modifiers rather than strong directional drivers."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}
}