Snapshot

  • subject_area: Silver futures
  • target_market_code: silver
  • ticker:
  • regime_state: unstable
  • beliefs_count: 4
  • top_risk_flag: contradiction_spike (high)
  • generated_at: 2026-03-17T23:00:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Reversal-Risk
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
silver B-SI-001 Over the next 6 hours, silver futures are more likely to trade in a mixed/rangebound tape as real-rate/yield expectations counterbalance safe-haven/investment demand signals. 58 mixed stable 6h false 78
silver B-SI-002 Over the next 24 hours, if rate expectations soften (lower yields/real rates), silver futures have upside follow-through supported by safe-haven and investment/ETF-flow narratives. 55 up accelerating 24h false 78
silver B-SI-003 Over the next 24 hours, if policy messaging/positioning keeps real rates elevated and the USD firm, silver futures face downside pressure that can override incremental safe-haven demand. 52 down accelerating 24h false 78
silver B-SI-004 Mining/supply-side headlines in the current feed are not yet cohesive enough to be a dominant near-term price driver for silver futures (more medium-term than 6h/24h). 60 flat fading 24h false 78

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "CIS6B-silver-20260317T230000Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-17T23:00:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Silver futures",
 "market_code": "silver"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Reversal-Risk",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 45,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 78,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "silver",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "silver"
 ],
 "regime_state": "unstable",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-SI-001",
 "market": "silver",
 "claim": "Over the next 6 hours, silver futures are more likely to trade in a mixed/rangebound tape as real-rate/yield expectations counterbalance safe-haven/investment demand signals.",
 "probability_pct": 58,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "real_rates",
 "usd_strength",
 "precious_metals_flows"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-SI-002",
 "B-SI-003"
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-SI-002",
 "market": "silver",
 "claim": "Over the next 24 hours, if rate expectations soften (lower yields/real rates), silver futures have upside follow-through supported by safe-haven and investment/ETF-flow narratives.",
 "probability_pct": 55,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "precious_metals_flows",
 "real_rates"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-SI-003"
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-SI-003",
 "market": "silver",
 "claim": "Over the next 24 hours, if policy messaging/positioning keeps real rates elevated and the USD firm, silver futures face downside pressure that can override incremental safe-haven demand.",
 "probability_pct": 52,
 "direction": "down",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "real_rates",
 "usd_strength"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-SI-002"
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-SI-004",
 "market": "silver",
 "claim": "Mining/supply-side headlines in the current feed are not yet cohesive enough to be a dominant near-term price driver for silver futures (more medium-term than 6h/24h).",
 "probability_pct": 60,
 "direction": "flat",
 "velocity": "fading",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "mine_supply"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": []
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "directional_state": "neutral_mixed",
 "momentum_state": "stable",
 "reversal_risk": "high",
 "state_change": "unchanged",
 "conviction_score_0_100": 45,
 "freshness_confidence": "medium",
 "catalyst_type": "reversal_warning",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 78,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-SI-001",
 "B-SI-002",
 "B-SI-003",
 "B-SI-004"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "flag": "contradiction_spike",
 "severity": "high",
 "detail": "Recent hours show sharp oscillation between rate/yield-driven headwinds and safe-haven/investment-flow support."
 },
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "flag": "narrative_whipsaw",
 "severity": "high",
 "detail": "Directional score swung from strongly negative to strongly positive within the last 24h buckets, implying unstable short-horizon positioning."
 },
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "flag": "macro_event_risk",
 "severity": "high",
 "detail": "Rate-expectations sensitivity elevates reversal probability around central-bank messaging and yield moves."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "confidence": "high",
 "trigger_condition": "stay_flat while directional_score_signed remains between -20 and +20 and contradiction_ratio remains elevated (>0.45)."
 },
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "confidence": "high",
 "trigger_condition": "reversal_watch if a fresh impulse flips directional_score_signed beyond +/-20 within a 2-4 hour window."
 },
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "confidence": "high",
 "trigger_condition": "volatility_watch into policy/yield catalysts; treat sudden yield spikes/drops as primary short-horizon regime switch input."
 },
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "watch_long_bias if yields/real rates soften and investment-flow narratives persist (directional_score_signed sustains > +20 for >=2 buckets)."
 },
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "watch_short_bias if real rates and USD-strength narratives dominate (directional_score_signed sustains < -20 for >=2 buckets)."
 },
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "hard_de_risk_watch if fragility_score_0_100 rises above 85 alongside contradiction_ratio > 0.60 (headline instability)."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [
 "silver"
 ],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": [
 "silver"
 ]
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T00:00:00Z",
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 "bullish_pressure_score": 50,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 50,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
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 "contradiction_ratio": 0.5,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 20,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 70,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T01:00:00Z",
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T02:00:00Z",
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T03:00:00Z",
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 },
 {
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T05:00:00Z",
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 52,
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 },
 {
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 },
 {
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 {
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 {
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 },
 {
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 },
 {
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 },
 {
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 },
 {
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T16:00:00Z",
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 },
 {
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 },
 {
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T19:00:00Z",
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 },
 {
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 },
 {
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 },
 {
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 20,
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": true,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T17:30:00Z",
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T17:30:00Z",
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
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 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T18:00:00Z",
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 "directional_score_signed": 18,
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 "velocity_score": -10,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 44,
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T18:30:00Z",
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 "directional_score_signed": 10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 55,
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 "velocity_score": -8,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.56,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 34,
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T19:00:00Z",
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 "directional_score_signed": 8,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 54,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 46,
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 "velocity_score": -2,
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 "contradiction_ratio": 0.55,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 30,
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T19:30:00Z",
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 "directional_score_signed": 4,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 52,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 48,
 "net_sentiment_score": 4,
 "velocity_score": -4,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.54,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 24,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 75,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T20:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 2,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 51,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 49,
 "net_sentiment_score": 2,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.52,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 22,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 73,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T20:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 2,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 51,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 49,
 "net_sentiment_score": 2,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.52,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 22,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 73,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T21:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 50,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 50,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.5,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 20,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 70,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T21:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 50,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 50,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.5,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 20,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 70,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T22:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 50,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 50,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.5,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 20,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 70,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T22:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 50,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 50,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.5,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 20,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 70,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 }
 ]
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 28,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": -26,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "down",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 8,
 "signal_regime": "weakening_bullish"
 }
 }
}