Snapshot

  • subject_area: Silver futures
  • target_market_code: silver
  • ticker:
  • regime_state: unstable
  • beliefs_count: 2
  • top_risk_flag: contradiction_pocket_recent
  • generated_at: 2026-03-17T15:00:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
silver B-SI-6H-UP Silver futures have a modest upside bias over the next 6 hours, supported by precious-metals risk appetite/flows and silver-specific market growth narratives. 58 up accelerating 6h false 58
silver B-SI-24H-UP Silver futures have a positive 24-hour bias, but the thesis is fragile due to macro/geopolitical contradiction pockets despite broadly constructive silver-specific supply/demand narratives. 60 up stable 24h false 58

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-20260317-150000Z-silver",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-17T15:00:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Silver futures",
 "market_code": "silver"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 64,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "silver",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "silver"
 ],
 "regime_state": "unstable",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-SI-6H-UP",
 "market": "silver",
 "claim": "Silver futures have a modest upside bias over the next 6 hours, supported by precious-metals risk appetite/flows and silver-specific market growth narratives.",
 "probability_pct": 58,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "precious_metals_flows",
 "usd_strength",
 "real_rates",
 "industrial_demand"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "geopolitical risk / risk-off shocks can raise intraday reversal odds",
 "macro (rates/USD) sensitivity can flip quickly"
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-SI-24H-UP",
 "market": "silver",
 "claim": "Silver futures have a positive 24-hour bias, but the thesis is fragile due to macro/geopolitical contradiction pockets despite broadly constructive silver-specific supply/demand narratives.",
 "probability_pct": 60,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "mine_supply",
 "industrial_demand",
 "precious_metals_flows",
 "real_rates"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "fresh macro/geopolitical headlines elevating safe-haven dispersion and whipsaw risk",
 "single-source outliers / low-authority share in parts of the corpus"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "new_bullish",
 "conviction_score_0_100": 64,
 "freshness_confidence": "high",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-SI-6H-UP",
 "B-SI-24H-UP"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-SI-CONTRADICTION-POCKET",
 "market": "silver",
 "flag": "contradiction_pocket_recent",
 "severity": "medium",
 "rationale": "Net bullish pressure remains dominant, but a recent bearish-pressure uptick increased short-horizon whipsaw risk.",
 "trigger_window": "last_6h"
 },
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-SI-MACRO-SENSITIVITY",
 "market": "silver",
 "flag": "macro_real_rates_usd_sensitivity",
 "severity": "medium",
 "rationale": "Silver signals show meaningful linkage to rates/USD narratives; fast macro repricing can invert direction even if silver-specific fundamentals are supportive.",
 "trigger_window": "24h"
 },
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-SI-SINGLE-SOURCE-OUTLIERS",
 "market": "silver",
 "flag": "single_source_outlier_noise",
 "severity": "low",
 "rationale": "Some VIP items are singleton/low-diversity and should not dominate directional conviction.",
 "trigger_window": "30d"
 },
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-SI-SHADOWSTREAM-COMPLIANCE-GAP",
 "market": "silver",
 "flag": "seed_level_risk_anomalies_unmaterialised",
 "severity": "low",
 "rationale": "Shadow-stream compliance-gap anomalies exist but are not evidence-materialised in this packet; treat as monitoring-only until corroborated.",
 "trigger_window": "24h"
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "market": "silver",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Directional score stays >= +40 for 3 consecutive 1h buckets AND contradiction_ratio <= 0.20."
 },
 {
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "market": "silver",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Bearish_pressure_score spikes >= 35 OR net directional score falls below +20 within 2 consecutive 1h buckets."
 },
 {
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "market": "silver",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Contradiction_ratio rises >= 0.35, indicating mixed/unstable regime despite positive drift."
 },
 {
 "action": "stay_flat",
 "market": "silver",
 "confidence": "low",
 "trigger_condition": "Directional score oscillates inside (-20, +20) for >= 4 hours (rangebound / mixed tape)."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "silver"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 35,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 23,
 "net_sentiment_score": 12,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.38,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 42,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 34,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 24,
 "net_sentiment_score": 10,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.41,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 41,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 8,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 33,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 25,
 "net_sentiment_score": 8,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.43,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 40,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 34,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 24,
 "net_sentiment_score": 10,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.41,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 41,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 14,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 36,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 22,
 "net_sentiment_score": 14,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.38,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 44,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 16,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 37,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 21,
 "net_sentiment_score": 16,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.36,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 46,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 38,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.34,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 48,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 39,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 19,
 "net_sentiment_score": 20,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.33,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 49,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 59,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 40,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 18,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.31,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 50,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 25,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 43,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 18,
 "net_sentiment_score": 25,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.29,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 28,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 45,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 17,
 "net_sentiment_score": 28,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.27,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 46,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 16,
 "net_sentiment_score": 30,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 33,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 48,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 15,
 "net_sentiment_score": 33,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 35,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 50,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 15,
 "net_sentiment_score": 35,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 59,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 53,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 37,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 51,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
 "net_sentiment_score": 37,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 40,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 53,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 13,
 "net_sentiment_score": 40,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 51,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 42,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 55,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 13,
 "net_sentiment_score": 42,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 63,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 50,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 45,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 57,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 45,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 65,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 49,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 48,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 60,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 48,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 66,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 48,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 52,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 64,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 52,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 68,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 47,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 50,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 64,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
 "net_sentiment_score": 50,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": -6,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 66,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 44,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 64,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 44,
 "velocity_score": -6,
 "acceleration_score": -4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 61,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 67,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 49,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 65,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 16,
 "net_sentiment_score": 49,
 "velocity_score": 5,
 "acceleration_score": 11,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 65,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 53,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 68,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 15,
 "net_sentiment_score": 53,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 69,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 53,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 68,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 25,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 4,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 7,
 "cross_domain_merges": 2,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Target scope resolved explicitly from flight_plan.target_market_code = 'silver'.",
 "Admitted evidence emphasised silver-specific mining/supply-demand and precious-metals flows; non-silver solar-manufacturing-only trends were not force-mapped.",
 "No explicit contradiction objects were supplied in input; contradiction_ratio is inferred conservatively from mixed bullish/bearish pressure presence."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}