Snapshot
- subject_area: Silver futures
- target_market_code: silver
- ticker:
- regime_state: unstable
- beliefs_count: 2
- top_risk_flag: contradiction_pocket_recent
- generated_at: 2026-03-17T15:00:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| silver | B-SI-6H-UP | Silver futures have a modest upside bias over the next 6 hours, supported by precious-metals risk appetite/flows and silver-specific market growth narratives. | 58 | up | accelerating | 6h | false | 58 |
| silver | B-SI-24H-UP | Silver futures have a positive 24-hour bias, but the thesis is fragile due to macro/geopolitical contradiction pockets despite broadly constructive silver-specific supply/demand narratives. | 60 | up | stable | 24h | false | 58 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-20260317-150000Z-silver",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-17T15:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Silver futures",
"market_code": "silver"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "silver",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"silver"
],
"regime_state": "unstable",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-SI-6H-UP",
"market": "silver",
"claim": "Silver futures have a modest upside bias over the next 6 hours, supported by precious-metals risk appetite/flows and silver-specific market growth narratives.",
"probability_pct": 58,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"precious_metals_flows",
"usd_strength",
"real_rates",
"industrial_demand"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"geopolitical risk / risk-off shocks can raise intraday reversal odds",
"macro (rates/USD) sensitivity can flip quickly"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-SI-24H-UP",
"market": "silver",
"claim": "Silver futures have a positive 24-hour bias, but the thesis is fragile due to macro/geopolitical contradiction pockets despite broadly constructive silver-specific supply/demand narratives.",
"probability_pct": 60,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"mine_supply",
"industrial_demand",
"precious_metals_flows",
"real_rates"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"fresh macro/geopolitical headlines elevating safe-haven dispersion and whipsaw risk",
"single-source outliers / low-authority share in parts of the corpus"
]
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "silver",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"freshness_confidence": "high",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-SI-6H-UP",
"B-SI-24H-UP"
]
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF-SI-CONTRADICTION-POCKET",
"market": "silver",
"flag": "contradiction_pocket_recent",
"severity": "medium",
"rationale": "Net bullish pressure remains dominant, but a recent bearish-pressure uptick increased short-horizon whipsaw risk.",
"trigger_window": "last_6h"
},
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF-SI-MACRO-SENSITIVITY",
"market": "silver",
"flag": "macro_real_rates_usd_sensitivity",
"severity": "medium",
"rationale": "Silver signals show meaningful linkage to rates/USD narratives; fast macro repricing can invert direction even if silver-specific fundamentals are supportive.",
"trigger_window": "24h"
},
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF-SI-SINGLE-SOURCE-OUTLIERS",
"market": "silver",
"flag": "single_source_outlier_noise",
"severity": "low",
"rationale": "Some VIP items are singleton/low-diversity and should not dominate directional conviction.",
"trigger_window": "30d"
},
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF-SI-SHADOWSTREAM-COMPLIANCE-GAP",
"market": "silver",
"flag": "seed_level_risk_anomalies_unmaterialised",
"severity": "low",
"rationale": "Shadow-stream compliance-gap anomalies exist but are not evidence-materialised in this packet; treat as monitoring-only until corroborated.",
"trigger_window": "24h"
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"market": "silver",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Directional score stays >= +40 for 3 consecutive 1h buckets AND contradiction_ratio <= 0.20."
},
{
"action": "reversal_watch",
"market": "silver",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Bearish_pressure_score spikes >= 35 OR net directional score falls below +20 within 2 consecutive 1h buckets."
},
{
"action": "volatility_watch",
"market": "silver",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Contradiction_ratio rises >= 0.35, indicating mixed/unstable regime despite positive drift."
},
{
"action": "stay_flat",
"market": "silver",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "Directional score oscillates inside (-20, +20) for >= 4 hours (rangebound / mixed tape)."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"silver"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 35,
"bearish_pressure_score": 23,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.38,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 42,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 34,
"bearish_pressure_score": 24,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.41,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 41,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 33,
"bearish_pressure_score": 25,
"net_sentiment_score": 8,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.43,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 40,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 34,
"bearish_pressure_score": 24,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.41,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 41,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 14,
"bullish_pressure_score": 36,
"bearish_pressure_score": 22,
"net_sentiment_score": 14,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.38,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 16,
"bullish_pressure_score": 37,
"bearish_pressure_score": 21,
"net_sentiment_score": 16,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.36,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 38,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.34,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 39,
"bearish_pressure_score": 19,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.33,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 49,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 40,
"bearish_pressure_score": 18,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.31,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 25,
"bullish_pressure_score": 43,
"bearish_pressure_score": 18,
"net_sentiment_score": 25,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.29,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 45,
"bearish_pressure_score": 17,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.27,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 46,
"bearish_pressure_score": 16,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 33,
"bullish_pressure_score": 48,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 33,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 35,
"bullish_pressure_score": 50,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 35,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 59,
"fragility_score_0_100": 53,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 37,
"bullish_pressure_score": 51,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 37,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 40,
"bullish_pressure_score": 53,
"bearish_pressure_score": 13,
"net_sentiment_score": 40,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 51,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 42,
"bullish_pressure_score": 55,
"bearish_pressure_score": 13,
"net_sentiment_score": 42,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"fragility_score_0_100": 50,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 45,
"bullish_pressure_score": 57,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 45,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 65,
"fragility_score_0_100": 49,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 48,
"bullish_pressure_score": 60,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 48,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"fragility_score_0_100": 48,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 52,
"bullish_pressure_score": 64,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 52,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 68,
"fragility_score_0_100": 47,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 50,
"bullish_pressure_score": 64,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 50,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 44,
"bullish_pressure_score": 64,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 44,
"velocity_score": -6,
"acceleration_score": -4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 61,
"fragility_score_0_100": 67,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 49,
"bullish_pressure_score": 65,
"bearish_pressure_score": 16,
"net_sentiment_score": 49,
"velocity_score": 5,
"acceleration_score": 11,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 65,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 53,
"bullish_pressure_score": 68,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 53,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 69,
"fragility_score_0_100": 53,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 68,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 25,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 4,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 7,
"cross_domain_merges": 2,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Target scope resolved explicitly from flight_plan.target_market_code = 'silver'.",
"Admitted evidence emphasised silver-specific mining/supply-demand and precious-metals flows; non-silver solar-manufacturing-only trends were not force-mapped.",
"No explicit contradiction objects were supplied in input; contradiction_ratio is inferred conservatively from mixed bullish/bearish pressure presence."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}