Snapshot
- subject_area: Lithium futures
- target_market_code: lithium
- ticker: null
- regime_state: unstable
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: mixed_demand_vs_supply_interpretation
- generated_at: 2026-03-17T22:00:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market |
belief_id |
claim |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| lithium |
B-lithium-001 |
Lithium futures have a modest upside bias over the next 24h as EV adoption/infrastructure and battery-chemistry narratives remain supportive for demand expectations. |
58 |
up |
stable |
24h |
false |
null |
| lithium |
B-lithium-002 |
Upside in lithium futures is capped / pullback risk persists because supply-side expansion and extraction-project updates can be interpreted as future supply growth (price-bearish), especially if demand does not accelerate in the near term. |
47 |
down |
stable |
24h |
false |
null |
| lithium |
B-lithium-003 |
In the next 6h lithium futures are more likely to trade mixed/flat than trend strongly, because fresh catalysts are present but the evidence mix is thematic and partially single-source (fragility high). |
55 |
mixed |
accelerating |
6h |
false |
null |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "snap_2026-03-17T22:00:00Z_lithium_6B",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-17T22:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Lithium futures",
"market_code": "lithium"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Unstable",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 72,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "lithium",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"lithium"
],
"regime_state": "unstable",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-lithium-001",
"market": "lithium",
"claim": "Lithium futures have a modest upside bias over the next 24h as EV adoption/infrastructure and battery-chemistry narratives remain supportive for demand expectations.",
"probability_pct": 58,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"EV adoption/charging network buildout headlines (demand-supportive)",
"Battery-chemistry advancement narrative increasing long-run lithium intensity expectations",
"Policy/regulatory signals broadly framed as transition-supportive in the current evidence set"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-lithium-002",
"B-lithium-003"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-lithium-002",
"market": "lithium",
"claim": "Upside in lithium futures is capped / pullback risk persists because supply-side expansion and extraction-project updates can be interpreted as future supply growth (price-bearish), especially if demand does not accelerate in the near term.",
"probability_pct": 47,
"direction": "down",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"Battery manufacturing capacity expansion narratives can translate into upstream supply responses",
"Extraction/project development headlines can signal supply growth and/or competitive pressure",
"Market sensitivity to inventory and near-term demand disappointments"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-lithium-001"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-lithium-003",
"market": "lithium",
"claim": "In the next 6h lithium futures are more likely to trade mixed/flat than trend strongly, because fresh catalysts are present but the evidence mix is thematic and partially single-source (fragility high).",
"probability_pct": 55,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"Fresh but thin VIP-style single-source items (echo-risk)",
"Ongoing multi-entity EV narrative flow without direct price/inventory linkage in this feed",
"Potential near-term whipsaw from regulatory/legal headline risk spillover"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-lithium-001"
]
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "lithium",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"freshness_confidence": "medium",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 72,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-lithium-001",
"B-lithium-003"
]
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "mixed_demand_vs_supply_interpretation",
"market": "lithium",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "Demand-supportive EV/battery narratives coexist with supply-expansion/extraction-project narratives, increasing contradiction and limiting conviction."
},
{
"flag": "single_source_echo_risk_present",
"market": "lithium",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "Multiple VIP outliers are single-source/low-authority; they add recency but also increase fragility."
},
{
"flag": "regulatory_legal_overhang_spillover",
"market": "lithium",
"severity": "low",
"details": "A negative regulatory/legal risk anomaly exists in the broader EV/regulatory arena; not late-breaking in the last 2h window, but can amplify volatility."
},
{
"flag": "thin_price_linkage_in_feed",
"market": "lithium",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "Signals are predominantly thematic (EV, policy, tech) with limited direct inventory/spot/futures pricing linkage in the supplied evidence set."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"market": "lithium",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Directional score stays >= +20 and fresh evidence count rises again in the next cycle without a contradiction spike."
},
{
"action": "reversal_watch",
"market": "lithium",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Any fresh (<=6h) high-authority opposing catalyst emerges (e.g., demand downgrade / inventory build / policy shock) pushing contradiction_ratio >= 0.55."
},
{
"action": "volatility_watch",
"market": "lithium",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "More single-source VIP items arrive without corroboration, raising fragility >= 75 while momentum remains strengthening."
},
{
"action": "stay_flat",
"market": "lithium",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "Directional score drops into (-20,+20) range for >=3 consecutive hourly buckets."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"lithium"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 59,
"bearish_pressure_score": 41,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.4,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 16,
"bullish_pressure_score": 58,
"bearish_pressure_score": 42,
"net_sentiment_score": 16,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.41,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 47,
"fragility_score_0_100": 71,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 17,
"bullish_pressure_score": 59,
"bearish_pressure_score": 41,
"net_sentiment_score": 17,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.4,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 47,
"fragility_score_0_100": 71,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 19,
"bullish_pressure_score": 60,
"bearish_pressure_score": 40,
"net_sentiment_score": 19,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.39,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 49,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 21,
"bullish_pressure_score": 61,
"bearish_pressure_score": 39,
"net_sentiment_score": 21,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.4,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 51,
"fragility_score_0_100": 69,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 32,
"bullish_pressure_score": 66,
"bearish_pressure_score": 34,
"net_sentiment_score": 32,
"velocity_score": 11,
"acceleration_score": 9,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.42,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 64,
"bearish_pressure_score": 36,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": -4,
"acceleration_score": -15,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.43,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 62,
"bearish_pressure_score": 38,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": -4,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.43,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 69,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 61,
"bearish_pressure_score": 39,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.44,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 60,
"bearish_pressure_score": 40,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.44,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 71,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 19,
"bullish_pressure_score": 60,
"bearish_pressure_score": 40,
"net_sentiment_score": 19,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.44,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 49,
"fragility_score_0_100": 71,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 59,
"bearish_pressure_score": 41,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.45,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 72,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 60,
"bearish_pressure_score": 40,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.44,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 71,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 21,
"bullish_pressure_score": 61,
"bearish_pressure_score": 39,
"net_sentiment_score": 21,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.44,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 51,
"fragility_score_0_100": 71,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 61,
"bearish_pressure_score": 39,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.44,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 71,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 23,
"bullish_pressure_score": 62,
"bearish_pressure_score": 38,
"net_sentiment_score": 23,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.45,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 53,
"fragility_score_0_100": 71,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 65,
"bearish_pressure_score": 35,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 7,
"acceleration_score": 6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.46,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 61,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 27,
"bullish_pressure_score": 64,
"bearish_pressure_score": 36,
"net_sentiment_score": 27,
"velocity_score": -3,
"acceleration_score": -10,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.46,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 26,
"bullish_pressure_score": 63,
"bearish_pressure_score": 37,
"net_sentiment_score": 26,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.46,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 57,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 25,
"bullish_pressure_score": 63,
"bearish_pressure_score": 38,
"net_sentiment_score": 25,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.47,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 71,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 62,
"bearish_pressure_score": 38,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.47,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 71,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 23,
"bullish_pressure_score": 62,
"bearish_pressure_score": 39,
"net_sentiment_score": 23,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.48,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 72,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 62,
"bearish_pressure_score": 38,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.48,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 72,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 26,
"bullish_pressure_score": 63,
"bearish_pressure_score": 37,
"net_sentiment_score": 26,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.5,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 74,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 32,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 2,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 12,
"cross_domain_merges": 4,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Scope locked to single market: lithium (explicit target_market_code).",
"No trend_state_memory / prior market_state_table provided; state_change computed versus neutral baseline (unknown_prior).",
"Per-signal physics v2 fields not present in payload; recency approximated using available timestamps (e.g., evidence_recency_proxy newest timestamps and VIP published times).",
"Late-breaking invalidation sentinel not triggered (no high-trust opposing signal <=2h observed in supplied inputs)."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}