Snapshot

  • subject_area: Lithium futures
  • target_market_code: lithium
  • ticker: null
  • regime_state: loosening
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: RF-LI-001
  • generated_at: 2026-03-17T17:00:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bearish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
lithium BLF-LI-001 Near-term lithium futures sentiment skews lower as incremental lithium extraction/resource-development headlines bias the tape toward a supply-tilt framing. 58 down accelerating 24h false 74
lithium BLF-LI-002 Over the next 6h, direction is likely choppy/fragile; downside continuation requires additional fresh lithium-mapped supply headlines rather than background narratives. 52 mixed stable 6h false 74
lithium BLF-LI-003 Reversal risk is non-trivial: a single high-authority disruption headline (policy constraint, supply curtailment, or sharp EV-demand read-through) could rapidly neutralise or flip the bearish lean. 46 mixed accelerating 24h false 74

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "CIS-6B-lithium-20260317T170000Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-17T17:00:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Lithium futures",
 "market_code": "lithium"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Unstable",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 55,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 74,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "lithium",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "lithium"
 ],
 "regime_state": "loosening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "BLF-LI-001",
 "market": "lithium",
 "claim": "Near-term lithium futures sentiment skews lower as incremental lithium extraction/resource-development headlines bias the tape toward a supply-tilt framing.",
 "probability_pct": 58,
 "direction": "down",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "Lithium extraction / resource development (project pipeline expansion framing)",
 "Thin demand-side confirmation inside the last 24h bucketed window (signal imbalance)"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "EV demand / battery buildout narratives present in the broader feed but not confidently lithium-mapped by alias rules in this run"
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "BLF-LI-002",
 "market": "lithium",
 "claim": "Over the next 6h, direction is likely choppy/fragile; downside continuation requires additional fresh lithium-mapped supply headlines rather than background narratives.",
 "probability_pct": 52,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "Evidence density is low in the last 24h (few lithium-mapped fresh timestamps)",
 "Contradiction risk from cross-domain drivers not captured by strict alias mapping"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "Any sudden, high-authority demand shock (EV adoption surge, policy stimulus) would weaken this claim"
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "BLF-LI-003",
 "market": "lithium",
 "claim": "Reversal risk is non-trivial: a single high-authority disruption headline (policy constraint, supply curtailment, or sharp EV-demand read-through) could rapidly neutralise or flip the bearish lean.",
 "probability_pct": 46,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "High sensitivity to sparse fresh evidence (fragility high)",
 "Cross-domain policy and demand narratives can swing interpretation quickly"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "If multiple lithium-mapped supply-expansion signals arrive within a tight window, reversal odds fall"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "directional_state": "bearish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "new_bearish",
 "conviction_score_0_100": 55,
 "freshness_confidence": "medium",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": true,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 74,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "BLF-LI-001",
 "BLF-LI-002",
 "BLF-LI-003"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-LI-001",
 "type": "data_sparsity",
 "severity": "medium",
 "description": "Short-horizon (6h/24h) lithium-mapped fresh evidence is thin; conviction capped and fragility elevated."
 },
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-LI-002",
 "type": "stale_context_overhang",
 "severity": "medium",
 "description": "Several lithium-related narratives are slow-burn/dormant; stale suppression applied to avoid persistence overweight."
 },
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-LI-003",
 "type": "narrative_whipsaw",
 "severity": "medium",
 "description": "Cross-domain EV/battery themes can flip the interpretation quickly even without new lithium-specific prints."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action_label": "watch_short_bias",
 "trigger_condition": "If additional lithium-mapped supply-expansion/extraction headlines cluster within the next 6h and directional score stays <= -20."
 },
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "confidence": "high",
 "action_label": "volatility_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "If contradiction ratio rises above ~0.45 alongside sparse evidence (fragility remains elevated)."
 },
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action_label": "reversal_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "If a high-authority, very fresh (<=2h) demand shock or supply-disruption headline appears opposing the current bearish lean."
 },
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action_label": "hard_de_risk_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "If fragility remains >= 70 while directional conviction does not improve (thin evidence + mixed drivers)."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [],
 "bearish_markets": [
 "lithium"
 ],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -5,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 48,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 52,
 "net_sentiment_score": -5,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 32,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 70,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -5,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 48,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 52,
 "net_sentiment_score": -5,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 32,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 70,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -4,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 48,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 52,
 "net_sentiment_score": -4,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 32,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 70,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -4,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 48,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 52,
 "net_sentiment_score": -4,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 32,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 70,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -4,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 48,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 52,
 "net_sentiment_score": -4,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 32,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 70,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -3,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 49,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 51,
 "net_sentiment_score": -3,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 31,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 70,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -3,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 49,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 51,
 "net_sentiment_score": -3,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 31,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 70,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -3,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 49,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 51,
 "net_sentiment_score": -3,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 31,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 70,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -4,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 48,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 52,
 "net_sentiment_score": -4,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.29,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 32,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 71,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -6,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 47,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 53,
 "net_sentiment_score": -6,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 34,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 71,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 41,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 59,
 "net_sentiment_score": -18,
 "velocity_score": -12,
 "acceleration_score": -10,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.35,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 44,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 44,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 56,
 "net_sentiment_score": -12,
 "velocity_score": 6,
 "acceleration_score": 18,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.32,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 38,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 69,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 44,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 56,
 "net_sentiment_score": -12,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -6,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.31,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 38,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 69,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -14,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 43,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 57,
 "net_sentiment_score": -14,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.31,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 39,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 70,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -15,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 43,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 58,
 "net_sentiment_score": -15,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.31,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 40,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 70,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -14,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 43,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 57,
 "net_sentiment_score": -14,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.31,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 39,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 70,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -13,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 44,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 56,
 "net_sentiment_score": -13,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 38,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 70,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 44,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 56,
 "net_sentiment_score": -12,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 38,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 70,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 44,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 56,
 "net_sentiment_score": -12,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 38,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 70,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -13,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 44,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 56,
 "net_sentiment_score": -13,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.31,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 39,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 71,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -14,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 43,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 57,
 "net_sentiment_score": -14,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.31,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 39,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 71,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -16,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 42,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 58,
 "net_sentiment_score": -16,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.32,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 41,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 72,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 41,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 59,
 "net_sentiment_score": -18,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.34,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 43,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 73,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -26,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 37,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 63,
 "net_sentiment_score": -26,
 "velocity_score": -8,
 "acceleration_score": -6,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.4,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 50,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 74,
 "dominant_state": "bearish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 0,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 26,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "down",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 8,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bearish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 3,
 "cross_domain_merges": 1,
 "stale_suppression_count": 1,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Target market resolved explicitly from flight_plan.target_market_code=lithium.",
 "Strict alias mapping used for admission; EV-demand/battery-manufacturing items without lithium alias were treated as contextual (not force-mapped).",
 "Prior state not provided; state_change set as new_bearish against unknown_prior baseline."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}