Snapshot
- subject_area: Corn futures
- target_market_code: corn
- ticker:
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 4
- top_risk_flag: data_model_degraded_missing_5B
- generated_at: 2026-03-17T18:30:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market |
belief_id |
claim |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| corn |
B1_weather_supply_risk_wcb_drought |
Near-term US supply risk is elevated due to ongoing dryness/drought in parts of the Western Corn Belt, supporting upward corn futures sensitivity to weather updates. |
58 |
up |
accelerating |
6h |
false |
52 |
| corn |
B2_ethanol_policy_support |
Biofuels/RFS headline flow is mildly supportive for corn via ethanol demand expectations and policy clarity optionality. |
54 |
up |
stable |
24h |
false |
52 |
| corn |
B3_global_supply_argentina_exports |
South American supply narratives (potentially stronger Argentina production/exports) remain a bearish counterweight for corn. |
52 |
down |
fading |
24h |
false |
52 |
| corn |
B4_inputs_fertilizer_disruption_risk |
Fertilizer/shipping disruption risk remains a background bullish tail-risk for crop markets (higher costs/availability uncertainty), but signal quality is mixed and indirect for corn in the next 24h. |
47 |
mixed |
stable |
24h |
false |
52 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B_corn_20260317T183000Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-17T18:30:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Corn futures",
"market_code": "corn"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "corn",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"corn"
],
"regime_state": "tightening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B1_weather_supply_risk_wcb_drought",
"market": "corn",
"claim": "Near-term US supply risk is elevated due to ongoing dryness/drought in parts of the Western Corn Belt, supporting upward corn futures sensitivity to weather updates.",
"probability_pct": 58,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"weather",
"crop_conditions",
"planting_harvest"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B3_global_supply_argentina_exports"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B2_ethanol_policy_support",
"market": "corn",
"claim": "Biofuels/RFS headline flow is mildly supportive for corn via ethanol demand expectations and policy clarity optionality.",
"probability_pct": 54,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"ethanol_demand",
"export_flows"
],
"contradicted_by": []
},
{
"belief_id": "B3_global_supply_argentina_exports",
"market": "corn",
"claim": "South American supply narratives (potentially stronger Argentina production/exports) remain a bearish counterweight for corn.",
"probability_pct": 52,
"direction": "down",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"export_flows",
"crop_conditions"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B1_weather_supply_risk_wcb_drought"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B4_inputs_fertilizer_disruption_risk",
"market": "corn",
"claim": "Fertilizer/shipping disruption risk remains a background bullish tail-risk for crop markets (higher costs/availability uncertainty), but signal quality is mixed and indirect for corn in the next 24h.",
"probability_pct": 47,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"planting_harvest",
"crop_conditions"
],
"contradicted_by": []
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "corn",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"freshness_confidence": "medium",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B1_weather_supply_risk_wcb_drought",
"B2_ethanol_policy_support",
"B4_inputs_fertilizer_disruption_risk"
]
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "contradictory_cross-currents",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Bullish US weather + biofuels policy flow is offset by earlier global supply/exports narratives; net remains bullish but not one-way."
},
{
"flag": "policy_event_volatility_window",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Biofuels/RFS-related headline scheduling increases short-horizon volatility risk for grains via demand narrative repricing."
},
{
"flag": "data_model_degraded_missing_5B",
"severity": "high",
"detail": "workflow5B trend_physics/trend_state_memory not provided; directional synthesis is approximated from raw ingested headlines only."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "corn",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Additional same-day confirmations of Western Corn Belt dryness / adverse forecast updates without equally fresh bearish export-supply surprises."
},
{
"market": "corn",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Biofuels/RFS mandate headlines materially change implied ethanol demand expectations within the next 24h."
},
{
"market": "corn",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "Fresh (<=6h) credible updates on Argentina/Black Sea supply that reintroduce strong bearish pressure against the current bullish weather-led impulse."
},
{
"market": "corn",
"action": "stay_flat",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "If the signal remains mixed (contradiction ratio rises) and directional score compresses toward neutral while volatility flags persist."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"corn"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T18:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T19:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 15,
"fragility_score_0_100": 85,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T19:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T20:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 15,
"fragility_score_0_100": 85,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T20:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T21:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 15,
"fragility_score_0_100": 85,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T21:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T22:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 15,
"fragility_score_0_100": 85,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T22:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T23:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 15,
"fragility_score_0_100": 85,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T23:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T00:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 15,
"fragility_score_0_100": 85,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T00:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T01:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 15,
"fragility_score_0_100": 85,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T01:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T02:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 15,
"fragility_score_0_100": 85,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T02:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T03:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 15,
"fragility_score_0_100": 85,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T03:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T04:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 15,
"fragility_score_0_100": 85,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T04:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T05:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 15,
"fragility_score_0_100": 85,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T05:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T06:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 15,
"fragility_score_0_100": 85,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T06:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T07:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 13,
"bullish_pressure_score": 13,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 13,
"velocity_score": 13,
"acceleration_score": 13,
"contradiction_ratio": 0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 28,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T07:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T08:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 13,
"bullish_pressure_score": 13,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 13,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -13,
"contradiction_ratio": 0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 24,
"fragility_score_0_100": 78,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T08:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T09:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 10,
"bearish_pressure_score": 32,
"net_sentiment_score": -22,
"velocity_score": -35,
"acceleration_score": -35,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.245,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bearish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T09:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T10:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 10,
"bearish_pressure_score": 32,
"net_sentiment_score": -22,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 35,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.245,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 38,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "bearish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T10:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T11:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -16,
"bullish_pressure_score": 10,
"bearish_pressure_score": 26,
"net_sentiment_score": -16,
"velocity_score": 6,
"acceleration_score": 6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.286,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 30,
"fragility_score_0_100": 72,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T11:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T12:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 16,
"acceleration_score": 10,
"contradiction_ratio": 0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 15,
"fragility_score_0_100": 85,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T12:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T13:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -16,
"contradiction_ratio": 0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 15,
"fragility_score_0_100": 85,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T13:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T14:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 26,
"bullish_pressure_score": 26,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 26,
"velocity_score": 26,
"acceleration_score": 26,
"contradiction_ratio": 0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T14:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T15:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 26,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": -8,
"acceleration_score": -34,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.238,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 40,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T15:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T16:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 35,
"bullish_pressure_score": 43,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 35,
"velocity_score": 17,
"acceleration_score": 25,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.156,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 48,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T16:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T17:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 37,
"bullish_pressure_score": 43,
"bearish_pressure_score": 7,
"net_sentiment_score": 37,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -15,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.131,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T17:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T18:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 65,
"bullish_pressure_score": 71,
"bearish_pressure_score": 7,
"net_sentiment_score": 65,
"velocity_score": 28,
"acceleration_score": 26,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.085,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 68,
"fragility_score_0_100": 40,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 65,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 22,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 28,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
},
"diagnostics": {
"trends_seen": 0,
"trends_admitted": 0,
"cross_domain_merges": 2,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": true,
"notes": [
"workflow5B output (trends/vip_outliers/risk_anomalies/aggregate_metrics) not provided; used ingested headlines as proxy evidence with conservative conviction and elevated fragility.",
"No prior state memory available; state_change treated as new classification for this snapshot."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}
}