Snapshot

  • subject_area: Corn futures
  • target_market_code: corn
  • ticker:
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 4
  • top_risk_flag: data_model_degraded_missing_5B
  • generated_at: 2026-03-17T18:30:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
corn B1_weather_supply_risk_wcb_drought Near-term US supply risk is elevated due to ongoing dryness/drought in parts of the Western Corn Belt, supporting upward corn futures sensitivity to weather updates. 58 up accelerating 6h false 52
corn B2_ethanol_policy_support Biofuels/RFS headline flow is mildly supportive for corn via ethanol demand expectations and policy clarity optionality. 54 up stable 24h false 52
corn B3_global_supply_argentina_exports South American supply narratives (potentially stronger Argentina production/exports) remain a bearish counterweight for corn. 52 down fading 24h false 52
corn B4_inputs_fertilizer_disruption_risk Fertilizer/shipping disruption risk remains a background bullish tail-risk for crop markets (higher costs/availability uncertainty), but signal quality is mixed and indirect for corn in the next 24h. 47 mixed stable 24h false 52

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B_corn_20260317T183000Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-17T18:30:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Corn futures",
 "market_code": "corn"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "corn",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "corn"
 ],
 "regime_state": "tightening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B1_weather_supply_risk_wcb_drought",
 "market": "corn",
 "claim": "Near-term US supply risk is elevated due to ongoing dryness/drought in parts of the Western Corn Belt, supporting upward corn futures sensitivity to weather updates.",
 "probability_pct": 58,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "weather",
 "crop_conditions",
 "planting_harvest"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B3_global_supply_argentina_exports"
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B2_ethanol_policy_support",
 "market": "corn",
 "claim": "Biofuels/RFS headline flow is mildly supportive for corn via ethanol demand expectations and policy clarity optionality.",
 "probability_pct": 54,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "ethanol_demand",
 "export_flows"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": []
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B3_global_supply_argentina_exports",
 "market": "corn",
 "claim": "South American supply narratives (potentially stronger Argentina production/exports) remain a bearish counterweight for corn.",
 "probability_pct": 52,
 "direction": "down",
 "velocity": "fading",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "export_flows",
 "crop_conditions"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B1_weather_supply_risk_wcb_drought"
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B4_inputs_fertilizer_disruption_risk",
 "market": "corn",
 "claim": "Fertilizer/shipping disruption risk remains a background bullish tail-risk for crop markets (higher costs/availability uncertainty), but signal quality is mixed and indirect for corn in the next 24h.",
 "probability_pct": 47,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "planting_harvest",
 "crop_conditions"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": []
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "corn",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "new_bullish",
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "freshness_confidence": "medium",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B1_weather_supply_risk_wcb_drought",
 "B2_ethanol_policy_support",
 "B4_inputs_fertilizer_disruption_risk"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag": "contradictory_cross-currents",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "Bullish US weather + biofuels policy flow is offset by earlier global supply/exports narratives; net remains bullish but not one-way."
 },
 {
 "flag": "policy_event_volatility_window",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "Biofuels/RFS-related headline scheduling increases short-horizon volatility risk for grains via demand narrative repricing."
 },
 {
 "flag": "data_model_degraded_missing_5B",
 "severity": "high",
 "detail": "workflow5B trend_physics/trend_state_memory not provided; directional synthesis is approximated from raw ingested headlines only."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "corn",
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Additional same-day confirmations of Western Corn Belt dryness / adverse forecast updates without equally fresh bearish export-supply surprises."
 },
 {
 "market": "corn",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Biofuels/RFS mandate headlines materially change implied ethanol demand expectations within the next 24h."
 },
 {
 "market": "corn",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "confidence": "low",
 "trigger_condition": "Fresh (<=6h) credible updates on Argentina/Black Sea supply that reintroduce strong bearish pressure against the current bullish weather-led impulse."
 },
 {
 "market": "corn",
 "action": "stay_flat",
 "confidence": "low",
 "trigger_condition": "If the signal remains mixed (contradiction ratio rises) and directional score compresses toward neutral while volatility flags persist."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "corn"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T18:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T19:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 15,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 85,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T19:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T20:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 15,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 85,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T20:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T21:30:00Z",
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 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
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 "velocity_score": 0,
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 "contradiction_ratio": 0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 15,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 85,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T21:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T22:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
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 "velocity_score": 0,
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 "contradiction_ratio": 0,
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 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 15,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 85,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T22:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T23:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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 "velocity_score": 0,
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 "contradiction_ratio": 0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 15,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 85,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T23:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T00:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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 "contradiction_ratio": 0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 15,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 85,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T00:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T01:30:00Z",
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 15,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 85,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T01:30:00Z",
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 15,
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T02:30:00Z",
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 },
 {
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T04:30:00Z",
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 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 15,
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T05:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T06:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 15,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 85,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T06:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T07:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 13,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 13,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 13,
 "velocity_score": 13,
 "acceleration_score": 13,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 28,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 75,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T07:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T08:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 13,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 13,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 13,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -13,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 24,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 78,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T08:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T09:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 10,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 32,
 "net_sentiment_score": -22,
 "velocity_score": -35,
 "acceleration_score": -35,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.245,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 45,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "bearish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T09:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T10:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 10,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 32,
 "net_sentiment_score": -22,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 35,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.245,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 38,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "bearish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T10:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T11:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -16,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 10,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 26,
 "net_sentiment_score": -16,
 "velocity_score": 6,
 "acceleration_score": 6,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.286,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 30,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 72,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T11:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T12:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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 "velocity_score": 16,
 "acceleration_score": 10,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 15,
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T12:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T13:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -16,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 15,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 85,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T13:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T14:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 26,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 26,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 26,
 "velocity_score": 26,
 "acceleration_score": 26,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T14:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T15:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 26,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 8,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": -8,
 "acceleration_score": -34,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.238,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 40,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T15:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T16:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 35,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 43,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 8,
 "net_sentiment_score": 35,
 "velocity_score": 17,
 "acceleration_score": 25,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.156,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 48,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T16:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T17:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 37,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 43,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 7,
 "net_sentiment_score": 37,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": -15,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.131,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 6,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T17:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T18:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 65,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 71,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 7,
 "net_sentiment_score": 65,
 "velocity_score": 28,
 "acceleration_score": 26,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.085,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 6,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 68,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 40,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 65,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 22,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 28,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "trends_seen": 0,
 "trends_admitted": 0,
 "cross_domain_merges": 2,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": true,
 "notes": [
 "workflow5B output (trends/vip_outliers/risk_anomalies/aggregate_metrics) not provided; used ingested headlines as proxy evidence with conservative conviction and elevated fragility.",
 "No prior state memory available; state_change treated as new classification for this snapshot."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
 }
}