Snapshot
- subject_area: Copper futures (HG)
- target_market_code: copper
- ticker: copper
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: policy_headline_whipsaw_risk
- generated_at: 2026-03-17 13:00 UTC
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| copper | B1 | Copper futures retain an upward bias over the next 24h as energy-transition/grid buildout narratives and policy-driven industrial investment remain the dominant incremental demand signal set in the feed. | 62 | up | stable | 24h | false | 58 |
| copper | B2 | Trade-policy headline risk (US/EU actions and cross-border restrictions) raises the odds of a near-term pullback/whipsaw in copper futures despite the broader bullish demand narrative. | 41 | mixed | accelerating | 6h | false | 58 |
| copper | B3 | Mine/supply-side disruption chatter remains a supporting tailwind for copper (adds upside skew) but is not strong enough on its own to dominate direction in the next 6–24h without fresh, high-authority confirmation. | 52 | up | fading | 24h | false | 58 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{ "workflow_6B_CIS_output": { "snapshot_id": "6B-copper-20260317T130000Z", "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-17T13:00:00Z", "primary_asset_focus": { "name": "Copper futures (HG)", "market_code": "copper" }, "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish", "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 63, "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 58, "commodity_registry": [ "crude_oil", "gold", "natural_gas", "copper", "silver", "wheat", "corn", "uranium", "lithium", "coffee" ], "target_market_code": "copper", "target_resolution_source": "explicit", "scope_mode": "single_market", "analyzed_markets": [ "copper" ], "regime_state": "tightening", "beliefs": [ { "belief_id": "B1", "market": "copper", "claim": "Copper futures retain an upward bias over the next 24h as energy-transition/grid buildout narratives and policy-driven industrial investment remain the dominant incremental demand signal set in the feed.", "probability_pct": 62, "direction": "up", "velocity": "stable", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "industrial_demand", "china_policy", "inventory" ], "contradicted_by": [ "B2" ] }, { "belief_id": "B2", "market": "copper", "claim": "Trade-policy headline risk (US/EU actions and cross-border restrictions) raises the odds of a near-term pullback/whipsaw in copper futures despite the broader bullish demand narrative.", "probability_pct": 41, "direction": "mixed", "velocity": "accelerating", "horizon": "6h", "drivers": [ "usd_strength", "china_policy" ], "contradicted_by": [ "B1", "B3" ] }, { "belief_id": "B3", "market": "copper", "claim": "Mine/supply-side disruption chatter remains a supporting tailwind for copper (adds upside skew) but is not strong enough on its own to dominate direction in the next 6\u201324h without fresh, high-authority confirmation.", "probability_pct": 52, "direction": "up", "velocity": "fading", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "mine_supply", "inventory" ], "contradicted_by": [ "B2" ] } ], "market_state_table": [ { "market": "copper", "directional_state": "bullish", "momentum_state": "strengthening", "reversal_risk": "medium", "state_change": "new_bullish", "conviction_score_0_100": 63, "freshness_confidence": "medium", "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional", "stale_suppression_applied": true, "thesis_kill_switch": false, "late_breaking_alert": false, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "supporting_belief_ids": [ "B1", "B3" ] } ], "risk_flags": [ { "flag": "policy_headline_whipsaw_risk", "severity": "medium", "market": "copper", "details": "Trade-policy clusters are present; although not a clear bearish driver in the admitted set, they increase short-horizon reversal/volatility risk." }, { "flag": "mixed_source_authority", "severity": "medium", "market": "copper", "details": "Several strong themes are supported by broad coverage but with a meaningful low-authority share; conviction is capped and fragility elevated." }, { "flag": "stale_context_overhang", "severity": "low", "market": "copper", "details": "Some supply-disruption/supply-chain narratives are older than 72h; they are treated as background unless refreshed by new high-authority updates." } ], "candidate_actions": [ { "action_label": "watch_long_bias", "market": "copper", "confidence": "medium", "trigger_condition": "Additional high-authority demand/infrastructure confirmation OR continued fresh updates without a rise in contradiction ratio." }, { "action_label": "volatility_watch", "market": "copper", "confidence": "medium", "trigger_condition": "Trade-policy announcements/tariff headlines within the next 6h that materially increase contradiction ratio." }, { "action_label": "reversal_watch", "market": "copper", "confidence": "low", "trigger_condition": "A fresh (<=2h) opposing macro/demand shock signal appears with high authority and forces a kill-switch cap on conviction." }, { "action_label": "stay_flat", "market": "copper", "confidence": "low", "trigger_condition": "If directional score re-enters neutral band (|score| < 20) while contradiction ratio rises." } ], "paper_trade_signal_pack": { "bullish_markets": [ "copper" ], "bearish_markets": [], "neutral_mixed_markets": [], "high_reversal_risk_markets": [] }, "signal_timeseries": { "resolution": "1h", "lookback_hours": 24, "bucket_timezone": "UTC", "buckets": [ { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T13:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T14:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 10, "bullish_pressure_score": 14, "bearish_pressure_score": 9, "net_sentiment_score": 5, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.16, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 34, "fragility_score_0_100": 62, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T14:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T15:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 18, "bullish_pressure_score": 22, "bearish_pressure_score": 13, "net_sentiment_score": 9, "velocity_score": 8, "acceleration_score": 8, "contradiction_ratio": 0.17, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 38, "fragility_score_0_100": 60, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T15:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T16:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 16, "bullish_pressure_score": 20, "bearish_pressure_score": 12, "net_sentiment_score": 8, "velocity_score": -2, "acceleration_score": -10, "contradiction_ratio": 0.17, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 36, "fragility_score_0_100": 61, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T16:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T17:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 12, "bullish_pressure_score": 16, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 6, "velocity_score": -4, "acceleration_score": -2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.16, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 34, "fragility_score_0_100": 62, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T17:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T18:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 12, "bullish_pressure_score": 16, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 6, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 4, "contradiction_ratio": 0.16, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 34, "fragility_score_0_100": 62, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T18:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T19:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 12, "bullish_pressure_score": 16, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 6, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.16, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 34, "fragility_score_0_100": 62, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T19:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T20:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 12, "bullish_pressure_score": 16, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 6, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.16, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 34, "fragility_score_0_100": 62, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T20:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T21:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 12, "bullish_pressure_score": 16, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 6, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.16, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 34, "fragility_score_0_100": 62, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T21:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T22:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 12, "bullish_pressure_score": 16, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 6, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.16, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 34, "fragility_score_0_100": 62, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T22:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T23:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 12, "bullish_pressure_score": 16, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 6, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.16, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 34, "fragility_score_0_100": 62, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T23:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T00:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 12, "bullish_pressure_score": 16, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 6, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.16, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 34, "fragility_score_0_100": 62, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T00:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T01:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 12, "bullish_pressure_score": 16, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 6, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.16, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 34, "fragility_score_0_100": 62, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T01:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T02:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 12, "bullish_pressure_score": 16, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 6, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.16, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 34, "fragility_score_0_100": 62, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T02:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T03:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 12, "bullish_pressure_score": 16, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 6, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.16, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 34, "fragility_score_0_100": 62, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T03:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T04:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 20, "bullish_pressure_score": 24, "bearish_pressure_score": 14, "net_sentiment_score": 10, "velocity_score": 8, "acceleration_score": 8, "contradiction_ratio": 0.18, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 40, "fragility_score_0_100": 59, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T04:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T05:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 18, "bullish_pressure_score": 22, "bearish_pressure_score": 13, "net_sentiment_score": 9, "velocity_score": -2, "acceleration_score": -10, "contradiction_ratio": 0.17, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 38, "fragility_score_0_100": 60, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T05:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T06:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 18, "bullish_pressure_score": 22, "bearish_pressure_score": 13, "net_sentiment_score": 9, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.17, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 38, "fragility_score_0_100": 60, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T06:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T07:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 18, "bullish_pressure_score": 22, "bearish_pressure_score": 13, "net_sentiment_score": 9, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.17, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 38, "fragility_score_0_100": 60, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T07:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T08:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 18, "bullish_pressure_score": 22, "bearish_pressure_score": 13, "net_sentiment_score": 9, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.17, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 38, "fragility_score_0_100": 60, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T08:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T09:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 18, "bullish_pressure_score": 22, "bearish_pressure_score": 13, "net_sentiment_score": 9, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.17, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 38, "fragility_score_0_100": 60, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T09:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T10:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 18, "bullish_pressure_score": 22, "bearish_pressure_score": 13, "net_sentiment_score": 9, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.17, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 38, "fragility_score_0_100": 60, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T10:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T11:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 18, "bullish_pressure_score": 22, "bearish_pressure_score": 13, "net_sentiment_score": 9, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.17, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 38, "fragility_score_0_100": 60, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T11:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T12:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 18, "bullish_pressure_score": 22, "bearish_pressure_score": 13, "net_sentiment_score": 9, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.17, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 38, "fragility_score_0_100": 60, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T12:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T13:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 45, "bullish_pressure_score": 52, "bearish_pressure_score": 30, "net_sentiment_score": 22, "velocity_score": 27, "acceleration_score": 27, "contradiction_ratio": 0.24, "fresh_evidence_count": 4, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 63, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "dominant_state": "bullish" } ] }, "recent_half_hour_overlay": { "enabled": false, "resolution": "30m", "lookback_hours": 6, "buckets": [] }, "summary": { "timeseries_peak_bullish": 45, "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0, "latest_inflection_direction": "up", "latest_inflection_strength": 27, "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish" } }, "diagnostics": { "trends_seen": 12, "trends_admitted": 12, "cross_domain_merges": 3, "stale_suppression_count": 3, "reversal_flags_count": 1, "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0, "kill_switch_markets_count": 0, "timeseries_bucket_count": 24, "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0, "target_market_custom": false, "target_market_unresolved": false, "input_gate_degraded": false, "notes": [ "Target scope locked to single-market copper (explicit in flight_plan).", "No explicit contradiction objects provided; reversal risk inferred from policy/uncertainty themes rather than hard contradictory trend objects.", "Older (>72h) supply-chain narratives retained as background only (stale suppression applied)." ] }, "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B" }