Snapshot
- subject_area: Coffee futures (KC)
- target_market_code: coffee
- ticker: null
- regime_state: unstable
- beliefs_count: 4
- top_risk_flag: RF-COFFEE-002 (volatility_elevated_shipping_geopolitics, severity=high)
- generated_at: 2026-03-17T22:00:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| coffee | B-COFFEE-001 | Near-term logistics/shipping disruption risk remains elevated, likely supporting a risk premium in coffee futures. | 62 | up | accelerating | 24h | false | 74 |
| coffee | B-COFFEE-002 | Weather/climate-anomaly narratives are adding uncertainty around origin supply, biasing prices upward over the next 24h. | 58 | up | stable | 24h | false | 74 |
| coffee | B-COFFEE-003 | Intraday volatility is likely to stay elevated as geopolitical and freight headlines update, even if the net direction stays mildly upward. | 70 | mixed | stable | 6h | false | 74 |
| coffee | B-COFFEE-004 | Demand-side coffee-chain/consumer-preference news is mildly supportive but secondary versus supply/logistics drivers. | 52 | up | fading | 24h | false | 74 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{ "workflow_6B_CIS_output": { "snapshot_id": "6B-coffee-20260317T220000Z", "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-17T22:00:00Z", "primary_asset_focus": { "name": "Coffee futures (KC)", "market_code": "coffee" }, "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish Fragile", "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 64, "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 74, "commodity_registry": [ "crude_oil", "gold", "natural_gas", "copper", "silver", "wheat", "corn", "uranium", "lithium", "coffee" ], "target_market_code": "coffee", "target_resolution_source": "explicit", "scope_mode": "single_market", "analyzed_markets": [ "coffee" ], "regime_state": "unstable", "beliefs": [ { "belief_id": "B-COFFEE-001", "market": "coffee", "claim": "Near-term logistics/shipping disruption risk remains elevated, likely supporting a risk premium in coffee futures.", "probability_pct": 62, "direction": "up", "velocity": "accelerating", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "shipping_freight", "origin_supply", "macro_geopolitical_risk" ], "contradicted_by": [] }, { "belief_id": "B-COFFEE-002", "market": "coffee", "claim": "Weather/climate-anomaly narratives are adding uncertainty around origin supply, biasing prices upward over the next 24h.", "probability_pct": 58, "direction": "up", "velocity": "stable", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "weather", "crop_conditions", "origin_supply" ], "contradicted_by": [] }, { "belief_id": "B-COFFEE-003", "market": "coffee", "claim": "Intraday volatility is likely to stay elevated as geopolitical and freight headlines update, even if the net direction stays mildly upward.", "probability_pct": 70, "direction": "mixed", "velocity": "stable", "horizon": "6h", "drivers": [ "shipping_freight", "macro_geopolitical_risk" ], "contradicted_by": [] }, { "belief_id": "B-COFFEE-004", "market": "coffee", "claim": "Demand-side coffee-chain/consumer-preference news is mildly supportive but secondary versus supply/logistics drivers.", "probability_pct": 52, "direction": "up", "velocity": "fading", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "demand_sentiment" ], "contradicted_by": [] } ], "market_state_table": [ { "market": "coffee", "directional_state": "bullish", "momentum_state": "strengthening", "reversal_risk": "medium", "state_change": "new_bullish", "conviction_score_0_100": 64, "freshness_confidence": "medium", "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional", "stale_suppression_applied": false, "thesis_kill_switch": false, "late_breaking_alert": false, "fragility_score_0_100": 74, "supporting_belief_ids": [ "B-COFFEE-001", "B-COFFEE-002", "B-COFFEE-003", "B-COFFEE-004" ] } ], "risk_flags": [ { "flag_id": "RF-COFFEE-001", "market": "coffee", "type": "driver_specificity_low", "severity": "medium", "detail": "A meaningful share of admitted evidence is macro/logistics-focused rather than coffee-origin specific; directional call is therefore more fragile." }, { "flag_id": "RF-COFFEE-002", "market": "coffee", "type": "volatility_elevated_shipping_geopolitics", "severity": "high", "detail": "Shipping/freight disruption narratives can reprice quickly on incremental headlines, raising whipsaw risk." }, { "flag_id": "RF-COFFEE-003", "market": "coffee", "type": "weather_uncertainty_premium", "severity": "medium", "detail": "Climate anomaly framing increases uncertainty in crop outlook; can support upside but is sensitive to forecast updates." }, { "flag_id": "RF-COFFEE-004", "market": "coffee", "type": "evidence_quality_mixed", "severity": "medium", "detail": "Authority mix includes substantial lower-tier coverage in multiple trends; treat conviction as capped." }, { "flag_id": "RF-COFFEE-005", "market": "coffee", "type": "timeseries_sparsity_proxy", "severity": "low", "detail": "Per-record physics and granular timestamps were not available; timeseries is a conservative proxy built from trend-level recency cues." } ], "candidate_actions": [ { "market": "coffee", "action": "watch_long_bias", "confidence": "medium", "trigger_condition": "Additional confirmation of tightening logistics/origin supply constraints in the next 6\u201324h without offsetting relief headlines." }, { "market": "coffee", "action": "volatility_watch", "confidence": "high", "trigger_condition": "Any incremental shipping-lane escalation/de-escalation headlines or abrupt weather forecast changes." }, { "market": "coffee", "action": "reversal_watch", "confidence": "medium", "trigger_condition": "Clear easing signal in freight disruptions and/or improved crop/weather outlook that reduces the risk premium." }, { "market": "coffee", "action": "hard_de_risk_watch", "confidence": "medium", "trigger_condition": "If contradictory high-authority evidence arrives rapidly (<=2h) against the current tightening/logistics thesis." }, { "market": "coffee", "action": "stay_flat", "confidence": "low", "trigger_condition": "If signals remain mixed with no fresh directional updates while contradiction rises." } ], "paper_trade_signal_pack": { "bullish_markets": [ "coffee" ], "bearish_markets": [], "neutral_mixed_markets": [], "high_reversal_risk_markets": [] }, "signal_timeseries": { "resolution": "1h", "lookback_hours": 24, "bucket_timezone": "UTC", "buckets": [ { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T22:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T23:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 10, "bullish_pressure_score": 10, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 10, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.2, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 5, "conviction_score_0_100": 38, "fragility_score_0_100": 82, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T23:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T00:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 12, "bullish_pressure_score": 12, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 12, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.2, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 5, "conviction_score_0_100": 39, "fragility_score_0_100": 82, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T00:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T01:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 14, "bullish_pressure_score": 14, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 14, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.19, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 5, "conviction_score_0_100": 40, "fragility_score_0_100": 81, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T01:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T02:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 15, "bullish_pressure_score": 15, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 15, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.19, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 6, "conviction_score_0_100": 40, "fragility_score_0_100": 81, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T02:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T03:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 13, "bullish_pressure_score": 13, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 13, "velocity_score": -2, "acceleration_score": -3, "contradiction_ratio": 0.2, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 6, "conviction_score_0_100": 39, "fragility_score_0_100": 83, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T03:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T04:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 12, "bullish_pressure_score": 12, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 12, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.2, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 6, "conviction_score_0_100": 38, "fragility_score_0_100": 83, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T04:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T05:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 11, "bullish_pressure_score": 11, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 11, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.2, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 6, "conviction_score_0_100": 37, "fragility_score_0_100": 83, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T05:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T06:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 10, "bullish_pressure_score": 10, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 10, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.2, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 6, "conviction_score_0_100": 37, "fragility_score_0_100": 82, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T06:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T07:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 12, "bullish_pressure_score": 12, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 12, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 3, "contradiction_ratio": 0.19, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 5, "conviction_score_0_100": 39, "fragility_score_0_100": 81, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T07:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T08:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 16, "bullish_pressure_score": 16, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 16, "velocity_score": 4, "acceleration_score": 2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.18, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 42, "fragility_score_0_100": 80, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T08:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T09:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 18, "bullish_pressure_score": 18, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 18, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": -2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.18, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 45, "fragility_score_0_100": 79, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T09:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T10:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 20, "bullish_pressure_score": 20, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 20, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.17, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 48, "fragility_score_0_100": 78, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T10:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T11:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 23, "bullish_pressure_score": 23, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 23, "velocity_score": 3, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.17, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 52, "fragility_score_0_100": 77, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T11:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T12:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 26, "bullish_pressure_score": 26, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 26, "velocity_score": 3, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.16, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 55, "fragility_score_0_100": 76, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T12:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T13:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 28, "bullish_pressure_score": 28, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 28, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.16, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 57, "fragility_score_0_100": 75, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T13:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T14:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 30, "bullish_pressure_score": 30, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 30, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.15, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 58, "fragility_score_0_100": 75, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T14:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T15:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 32, "bullish_pressure_score": 32, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 32, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.15, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 60, "fragility_score_0_100": 74, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T15:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T16:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 34, "bullish_pressure_score": 34, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 34, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.15, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 61, "fragility_score_0_100": 74, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T16:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T17:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 33, "bullish_pressure_score": 33, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 33, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": -3, "contradiction_ratio": 0.16, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 60, "fragility_score_0_100": 75, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T17:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T18:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 31, "bullish_pressure_score": 31, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 31, "velocity_score": -2, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.16, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 58, "fragility_score_0_100": 76, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T18:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T19:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 32, "bullish_pressure_score": 32, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 32, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 3, "contradiction_ratio": 0.15, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 59, "fragility_score_0_100": 75, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T19:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T20:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 34, "bullish_pressure_score": 34, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 34, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.14, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 61, "fragility_score_0_100": 74, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T20:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T21:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 35, "bullish_pressure_score": 35, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 35, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.14, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 62, "fragility_score_0_100": 74, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T21:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T22:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 36, "bullish_pressure_score": 36, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 36, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.14, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 64, "fragility_score_0_100": 74, "dominant_state": "bullish" } ] }, "recent_half_hour_overlay": { "enabled": false, "resolution": "30m", "lookback_hours": 6, "buckets": [] }, "summary": { "timeseries_peak_bullish": 36, "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0, "latest_inflection_direction": "up", "latest_inflection_strength": 12, "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish" }, "diagnostics": { "trends_seen": 12, "trends_admitted": 8, "cross_domain_merges": 3, "stale_suppression_count": 0, "reversal_flags_count": 1, "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0, "kill_switch_markets_count": 0, "timeseries_bucket_count": 24, "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0, "target_market_custom": false, "target_market_unresolved": false, "input_gate_degraded": true, "notes": [ "target_resolution_source=explicit (flight_plan.target_market_code=coffee).", "trend_physics / per-record physics not present in provided payload; used conservative proxy scoring from trend metadata, recency cues, and driver arenas.", "Some admitted signals are cross-commodity logistics/macro; mapped to coffee due to shipping_freight/origin_supply relevance, but with reduced conviction and elevated fragility." ] }, "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B" } }