Snapshot

  • subject_area: Coffee futures (KC)
  • target_market_code: coffee
  • ticker: coffee
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 2
  • top_risk_flag: mixed_authority_tier_support
  • generated_at: 2026-03-17 12:00 UTC
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
coffee B-coffee-001 Near-term (6h) upside pressure likelier as fresh weather/crop-disruption and freight/logistics disruption narratives dominate. 62 up accelerating 6h false 58
coffee B-coffee-002 Over 24h bias remains upward but elevated whipsaw risk as weather+logistics catalysts can de-escalate quickly; authority tiers mixed. 58 up stable 24h false 58

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-coffee-2026-03-17T12:00:00Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-17T12:00:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Coffee futures (KC)",
 "market_code": "coffee"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "coffee",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "coffee"
 ],
 "regime_state": "tightening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-coffee-001",
 "market": "coffee",
 "claim": "Near-term (6h) upside pressure in coffee futures is more likely than downside as fresh weather/crop-disruption risk and freight/logistics disruption narratives dominate the latest evidence.",
 "probability_pct": 62,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "weather / crop anomaly risk (fresh operational surge flag)",
 "shipping/freight disruption theme (carrier disruption and trade-flow frictions)",
 "demand-side consumption/retail narrative persistence"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "resilience/adaptation narratives that imply supply response over time (medium-term bearish offset)"
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-coffee-002",
 "market": "coffee",
 "claim": "Over 24h, coffee futures bias remains upward but with elevated whipsaw risk because the dominant catalyst stack (weather + logistics) can de-escalate quickly and is partially supported by mixed authority tiers.",
 "probability_pct": 58,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "ongoing freight disruption sensitivity",
 "origin supply/crop condition uncertainty",
 "consumer preference/consumption dynamics as secondary support"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "medium-term supply normalisation / climate-resilience investment headlines",
 "macro risk-off drift potentially dampening demand"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "new_bullish",
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "freshness_confidence": "medium",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-coffee-001",
 "B-coffee-002"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag": "mixed_authority_tier_support",
 "severity": "medium",
 "details": "Several dominant narratives show high coverage but with a notable low-authority share; treat confidence as capped despite strong recency signals."
 },
 {
 "flag": "logistics_headline_volatility",
 "severity": "medium",
 "details": "Shipping/freight disruption themes can reverse rapidly (resolution/de-escalation), increasing reversal/whipsaw risk."
 },
 {
 "flag": "weather_event_uncertainty",
 "severity": "medium",
 "details": "Fresh weather/climate anomaly risk signal increases upside pressure, but uncertainty on magnitude/timing raises fragility."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "market": "coffee",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If additional fresh (<=6h) crop/weather disruption confirmations or freight disruption escalations appear without equally fresh offsetting supply-normalisation signals."
 },
 {
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "market": "coffee",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If contradiction indicators rise (new bearish supply-normalisation stories) while logistics/weather headlines remain active."
 },
 {
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "market": "coffee",
 "confidence": "low",
 "trigger_condition": "If a high-authority, very recent (<=2h) opposing signal emerges indicating rapid de-escalation of disruption risk or materially improved origin supply outlook."
 },
 {
 "action": "stay_flat",
 "market": "coffee",
 "confidence": "low",
 "trigger_condition": "If evidence flow becomes sparse (no fresh confirmations in the next 12\u201324h) and the directional score decays back into neutral range."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "coffee"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 26,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 26,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 26,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 26,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 26,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 26,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 27,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 27,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 27,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 53,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 27,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 27,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 27,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 53,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 28,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 28,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 28,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 28,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 28,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 28,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 29,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 29,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 29,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 55,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 30,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 30,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 55,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 59,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 30,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 30,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 55,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 59,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 31,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 31,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 31,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 59,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 32,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 32,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 32,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 33,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 33,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 33,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 57,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 34,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 34,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 34,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 57,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 35,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 35,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 35,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 36,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 36,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 36,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 39,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 39,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 39,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 40,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 40,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 40,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 41,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 41,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 41,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 61,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 42,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 42,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 42,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 61,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 44,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 44,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 44,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 47,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 47,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 47,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 6,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 64,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 46,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 46,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 46,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 63,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 47,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 47,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 47,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 6,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 64,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 48,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 48,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 48,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 6,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 64,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 48,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 4,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 8,
 "cross_domain_merges": 3,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "No v2 trend_physics/trend_state_memory fields provided in input; used legacy approximations from recency proxies, sentiment tags, and temporal profiles.",
 "No explicit contradiction objects supplied; contradiction_ratio inferred from presence of minor offsetting (supply-resilience) narratives versus dominant disruption/risk narratives.",
 "Prior market state unavailable; state_change treated as neutral->current transition for this snapshot."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}