Snapshot
- subject_area: Coffee futures (KC)
- target_market_code: coffee
- ticker: coffee
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 2
- top_risk_flag: mixed_authority_tier_support
- generated_at: 2026-03-17 12:00 UTC
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| coffee | B-coffee-001 | Near-term (6h) upside pressure likelier as fresh weather/crop-disruption and freight/logistics disruption narratives dominate. | 62 | up | accelerating | 6h | false | 58 |
| coffee | B-coffee-002 | Over 24h bias remains upward but elevated whipsaw risk as weather+logistics catalysts can de-escalate quickly; authority tiers mixed. | 58 | up | stable | 24h | false | 58 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-coffee-2026-03-17T12:00:00Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-17T12:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Coffee futures (KC)",
"market_code": "coffee"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "coffee",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"coffee"
],
"regime_state": "tightening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-coffee-001",
"market": "coffee",
"claim": "Near-term (6h) upside pressure in coffee futures is more likely than downside as fresh weather/crop-disruption risk and freight/logistics disruption narratives dominate the latest evidence.",
"probability_pct": 62,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"weather / crop anomaly risk (fresh operational surge flag)",
"shipping/freight disruption theme (carrier disruption and trade-flow frictions)",
"demand-side consumption/retail narrative persistence"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"resilience/adaptation narratives that imply supply response over time (medium-term bearish offset)"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-coffee-002",
"market": "coffee",
"claim": "Over 24h, coffee futures bias remains upward but with elevated whipsaw risk because the dominant catalyst stack (weather + logistics) can de-escalate quickly and is partially supported by mixed authority tiers.",
"probability_pct": 58,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"ongoing freight disruption sensitivity",
"origin supply/crop condition uncertainty",
"consumer preference/consumption dynamics as secondary support"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"medium-term supply normalisation / climate-resilience investment headlines",
"macro risk-off drift potentially dampening demand"
]
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "coffee",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"freshness_confidence": "medium",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-coffee-001",
"B-coffee-002"
]
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "mixed_authority_tier_support",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "Several dominant narratives show high coverage but with a notable low-authority share; treat confidence as capped despite strong recency signals."
},
{
"flag": "logistics_headline_volatility",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "Shipping/freight disruption themes can reverse rapidly (resolution/de-escalation), increasing reversal/whipsaw risk."
},
{
"flag": "weather_event_uncertainty",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "Fresh weather/climate anomaly risk signal increases upside pressure, but uncertainty on magnitude/timing raises fragility."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"market": "coffee",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If additional fresh (<=6h) crop/weather disruption confirmations or freight disruption escalations appear without equally fresh offsetting supply-normalisation signals."
},
{
"action": "volatility_watch",
"market": "coffee",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If contradiction indicators rise (new bearish supply-normalisation stories) while logistics/weather headlines remain active."
},
{
"action": "reversal_watch",
"market": "coffee",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "If a high-authority, very recent (<=2h) opposing signal emerges indicating rapid de-escalation of disruption risk or materially improved origin supply outlook."
},
{
"action": "stay_flat",
"market": "coffee",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "If evidence flow becomes sparse (no fresh confirmations in the next 12\u201324h) and the directional score decays back into neutral range."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"coffee"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 26,
"bullish_pressure_score": 26,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 26,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 26,
"bullish_pressure_score": 26,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 26,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 27,
"bullish_pressure_score": 27,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 27,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 53,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 27,
"bullish_pressure_score": 27,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 27,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 53,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 28,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 28,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 29,
"bullish_pressure_score": 29,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 29,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 30,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 30,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 31,
"bullish_pressure_score": 31,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 31,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 32,
"bullish_pressure_score": 32,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 32,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 33,
"bullish_pressure_score": 33,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 33,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 57,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 34,
"bullish_pressure_score": 34,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 34,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 57,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 35,
"bullish_pressure_score": 35,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 35,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 36,
"bullish_pressure_score": 36,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 36,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 39,
"bullish_pressure_score": 39,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 39,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 40,
"bullish_pressure_score": 40,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 40,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 41,
"bullish_pressure_score": 41,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 41,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 61,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 42,
"bullish_pressure_score": 42,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 42,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 61,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 44,
"bullish_pressure_score": 44,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 44,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 47,
"bullish_pressure_score": 47,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 47,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 6,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 46,
"bullish_pressure_score": 46,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 46,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 47,
"bullish_pressure_score": 47,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 47,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 6,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 48,
"bullish_pressure_score": 48,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 48,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 6,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 48,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 4,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 8,
"cross_domain_merges": 3,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"No v2 trend_physics/trend_state_memory fields provided in input; used legacy approximations from recency proxies, sentiment tags, and temporal profiles.",
"No explicit contradiction objects supplied; contradiction_ratio inferred from presence of minor offsetting (supply-resilience) narratives versus dominant disruption/risk narratives.",
"Prior market state unavailable; state_change treated as neutral->current transition for this snapshot."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}