Snapshot

  • subject_area: Uranium futures (U3O8)
  • target_market_code: uranium
  • ticker: null
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: headline_volatility_policy_geopolitics
  • generated_at: 2026-03-16T12:00:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
uranium B-UR-001 Near-term uranium futures sentiment remains upward biased as policy/nuclear build-out narratives combine with supply-chain/geopolitical risk premia. 61 up accelerating 6h false 54
uranium B-UR-002 Over the next day, uranium sentiment likely stays constructive, supported by sustained uranium-mining/producer coverage and ongoing policy signals, with headline-driven volatility risk. 64 up stable 24h false 54
uranium B-UR-003 Supply-side risk headlines (Kazakhstan/Kazatomprom/Rosatom adjacency) continue to bias perceived uranium supply tightness upward versus demand expectations. 60 up stable 24h false 54

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{ "workflow_6B_CIS_output": { "snapshot_id": "cis_6b_uranium_20260316T120000Z", "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-16T12:00:00Z", "primary_asset_focus": { "name": "Uranium futures (U3O8)", "market_code": "uranium" }, "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish", "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 68, "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 54, "commodity_registry": [ "crude_oil", "gold", "natural_gas", "copper", "silver", "wheat", "corn", "uranium", "lithium", "coffee" ], "target_market_code": "uranium", "target_resolution_source": "explicit", "scope_mode": "single_market", "analyzed_markets": [ "uranium" ], "regime_state": "tightening", "beliefs": [ { "belief_id": "B-UR-001", "market": "uranium", "claim": "Near-term uranium futures sentiment remains upward biased as policy/nuclear build-out narratives combine with supply-chain/geopolitical risk premia.", "probability_pct": 61, "direction": "up", "velocity": "accelerating", "horizon": "6h", "drivers": [ "T-003: Department of Energy: nuclear energy policy (late-surge; fresh evidence inside ~8h)", "T-006: EDF: energy security strategies (late-surge; fresh evidence inside ~8h)", "T-004: Kazatomprom: geopolitical risks impacting nuclear fuel supply chains (fresh evidence inside ~24h)" ], "contradicted_by": [] }, { "belief_id": "B-UR-002", "market": "uranium", "claim": "Over the next day, uranium sentiment likely stays constructive, supported by sustained uranium-mining/producer coverage and ongoing policy signals, with headline-driven volatility risk.", "probability_pct": 64, "direction": "up", "velocity": "stable", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "T-001: Denison Mines Corp.: uranium mining (sustained; fresh evidence inside ~7h)", "T-015: Denison Mines: uranium industry developments (sustained; fresh evidence inside ~7h)", "T-003: Department of Energy: nuclear energy policy (late-surge; fresh evidence inside ~8h)" ], "contradicted_by": [] }, { "belief_id": "B-UR-003", "market": "uranium", "claim": "Supply-side risk headlines (Kazakhstan/Kazatomprom/Rosatom adjacency) continue to bias perceived uranium supply tightness upward versus demand expectations.", "probability_pct": 60, "direction": "up", "velocity": "stable", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "T-004: Kazatomprom: geopolitical risks impacting nuclear fuel supply chains", "T-009: Cameco Corporation: financial performance (sector reinforcement; less time-sensitive)" ], "contradicted_by": [] } ], "market_state_table": [ { "market": "uranium", "directional_state": "bullish", "momentum_state": "strengthening", "reversal_risk": "medium", "state_change": "new_bullish", "conviction_score_0_100": 68, "freshness_confidence": "high", "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional", "stale_suppression_applied": false, "thesis_kill_switch": false, "late_breaking_alert": false, "fragility_score_0_100": 54, "supporting_belief_ids": [ "B-UR-001", "B-UR-002", "B-UR-003" ] } ], "risk_flags": [ { "risk_flag": "headline_volatility_policy_geopolitics", "market": "uranium", "severity": "medium", "detail": "Directional view is supported by policy and geopolitical/supply-chain narratives that can reprice quickly on new headlines." }, { "risk_flag": "low_authority_share_background", "market": "uranium", "severity": "medium", "detail": "Several reinforcing items show a high low-authority share / single-source VIP lane signals; treat as supportive but not decisive." }, { "risk_flag": "reputational_amplifier_shadow_stream", "market": "uranium", "severity": "low", "detail": "Shadow-stream 'reputational amplifier' anomalies present; increases noise/whipsaw risk without constituting a direct bearish catalyst." } ], "candidate_actions": [ { "market": "uranium", "action_label": "watch_long_bias", "confidence": "medium", "trigger_condition": "Maintain if fresh (<=24h) policy + supply-risk reinforcement persists without credible opposing catalysts." }, { "market": "uranium", "action_label": "volatility_watch", "confidence": "medium", "trigger_condition": "Escalate if new geopolitical supply-chain headlines or regulator/policy announcements cluster within <=6h." }, { "market": "uranium", "action_label": "reversal_watch", "confidence": "low", "trigger_condition": "Escalate if a high-authority opposing signal arrives within <=2h and coincides with a material contradiction uptick." } ], "paper_trade_signal_pack": { "bullish_markets": [ "uranium" ], "bearish_markets": [], "neutral_mixed_markets": [], "high_reversal_risk_markets": [] }, "signal_timeseries": { "resolution": "1h", "lookback_hours": 24, "bucket_timezone": "UTC", "buckets": [ { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T12:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T13:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 38, "bullish_pressure_score": 38, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 38, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.16, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 58, "fragility_score_0_100": 56, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T13:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T14:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 31, "bullish_pressure_score": 31, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 31, "velocity_score": -7, "acceleration_score": -7, "contradiction_ratio": 0.18, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 46, "fragility_score_0_100": 63, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T14:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T15:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 31, "bullish_pressure_score": 31, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 31, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 7, "contradiction_ratio": 0.18, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 45, "fragility_score_0_100": 64, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T15:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T16:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 32, "bullish_pressure_score": 32, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 32, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.18, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 46, "fragility_score_0_100": 63, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T16:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T17:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 33, "bullish_pressure_score": 33, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 33, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.18, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 47, "fragility_score_0_100": 62, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T17:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T18:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 34, "bullish_pressure_score": 34, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 34, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.18, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 48, "fragility_score_0_100": 61, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T18:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T19:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 50, "bullish_pressure_score": 50, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 50, "velocity_score": 16, "acceleration_score": 15, "contradiction_ratio": 0.15, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 64, "fragility_score_0_100": 55, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T19:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T20:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 37, "bullish_pressure_score": 37, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 37, "velocity_score": -13, "acceleration_score": -29, "contradiction_ratio": 0.18, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 50, "fragility_score_0_100": 60, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T20:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T21:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 36, "bullish_pressure_score": 36, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 36, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": 12, "contradiction_ratio": 0.18, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 49, "fragility_score_0_100": 60, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T21:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T22:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 36, "bullish_pressure_score": 36, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 36, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.18, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 49, "fragility_score_0_100": 60, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T22:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T23:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 37, "bullish_pressure_score": 37, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 37, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.18, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 50, "fragility_score_0_100": 59, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T23:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T00:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 45, "bullish_pressure_score": 45, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 45, "velocity_score": 8, "acceleration_score": 7, "contradiction_ratio": 0.16, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 60, "fragility_score_0_100": 56, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T00:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T01:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 38, "bullish_pressure_score": 38, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 38, "velocity_score": -7, "acceleration_score": -15, "contradiction_ratio": 0.18, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 51, "fragility_score_0_100": 60, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T01:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T02:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 38, "bullish_pressure_score": 38, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 38, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 7, "contradiction_ratio": 0.18, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 51, "fragility_score_0_100": 60, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T02:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T03:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 38, "bullish_pressure_score": 38, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 38, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.18, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 51, "fragility_score_0_100": 60, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T03:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T04:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 39, "bullish_pressure_score": 39, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 39, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.18, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 52, "fragility_score_0_100": 59, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T04:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T05:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 55, "bullish_pressure_score": 55, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 55, "velocity_score": 16, "acceleration_score": 15, "contradiction_ratio": 0.12, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 72, "fragility_score_0_100": 48, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T05:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T06:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 58, "bullish_pressure_score": 58, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 58, "velocity_score": 3, "acceleration_score": -13, "contradiction_ratio": 0.12, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 75, "fragility_score_0_100": 47, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T06:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T07:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 46, "bullish_pressure_score": 46, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 46, "velocity_score": -12, "acceleration_score": -15, "contradiction_ratio": 0.17, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 60, "fragility_score_0_100": 55, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T07:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T08:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 44, "bullish_pressure_score": 44, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 44, "velocity_score": -2, "acceleration_score": 10, "contradiction_ratio": 0.17, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 58, "fragility_score_0_100": 56, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T08:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T09:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 43, "bullish_pressure_score": 43, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 43, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.17, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 56, "fragility_score_0_100": 57, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T09:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T10:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 42, "bullish_pressure_score": 42, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 42, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.17, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 55, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T10:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T11:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 41, "bullish_pressure_score": 41, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 41, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.17, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 54, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T11:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T12:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 41, "bullish_pressure_score": 41, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 41, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.17, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 54, "fragility_score_0_100": 59, "dominant_state": "bullish" } ] }, "recent_half_hour_overlay": { "enabled": false, "resolution": "30m", "lookback_hours": 6, "buckets": [] }, "summary": { "timeseries_peak_bullish": 58, "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0, "latest_inflection_direction": "flat", "latest_inflection_strength": 3, "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish" }, "diagnostics": { "trends_seen": 12, "trends_admitted": 12, "cross_domain_merges": 4, "stale_suppression_count": 0, "reversal_flags_count": 0, "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0, "kill_switch_markets_count": 0, "timeseries_bucket_count": 24, "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0, "target_market_custom": false, "target_market_unresolved": false, "input_gate_degraded": false, "notes": [ "Scope locked to single market: uranium (explicit in flight plan).", "No explicit contradiction objects provided; reversal risk driven mainly by headline/authority mix and potential whipsaw.", "Prior market state not provided to 6B; state_change set as new_bullish (assumed prior neutral baseline for state-machine initialisation).", "Timeseries buckets derived from available trend-level newest-timestamp proxies and persistent baseline sentiment; no live pricing used." ] }, "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B" } }