Snapshot

  • subject_area: Uranium futures
  • target_market_code: uranium
  • ticker: null
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: narrative_to_price_translation_risk
  • generated_at: 2026-03-16T22:00:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
uranium B-UR-001 Policy/regulatory and public-sector nuclear support signals are increasing, sustaining demand expectations for nuclear fuel inputs and supporting uranium pricing bias. 60 up accelerating 24h false 56
uranium B-UR-002 Supply-chain/geopolitical framing around nuclear fuel supply remains supportive of a tighter perceived supply regime, adding upward bias to uranium. 58 up stable 24h false 56
uranium B-UR-003 Near-term newsflow concentration (latest-cycle surges) keeps sentiment skewed bullish over the next session, but the thesis is moderately fragile due to mixed authority tiers and narrative-to-price translation risk. 55 up accelerating 6h false 56

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-uranium-20260316T220000Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-16T22:00:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Uranium futures",
 "market_code": "uranium"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "uranium",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "uranium"
 ],
 "regime_state": "tightening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-UR-001",
 "market": "uranium",
 "claim": "Policy/regulatory and public-sector nuclear support signals are increasing, sustaining demand expectations for nuclear fuel inputs and supporting uranium pricing bias.",
 "probability_pct": 60,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "Regulatory/policy newsflow cadence rising (NRC/DOE/IAEA-related trend clusters)",
 "SMR and innovation narratives reinforcing build-out expectations"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": []
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-UR-002",
 "market": "uranium",
 "claim": "Supply-chain/geopolitical framing around nuclear fuel supply remains supportive of a tighter perceived supply regime, adding upward bias to uranium.",
 "probability_pct": 58,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "Geopolitical supply chain risk themes (Cameco/Kazakhstan/Rosatom-related clusters)",
 "Energy-security positioning by supranational/sovereign actors"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": []
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-UR-003",
 "market": "uranium",
 "claim": "Near-term newsflow concentration (latest-cycle surges) keeps sentiment skewed bullish over the next session, but the thesis is moderately fragile due to mixed authority tiers and narrative-to-price translation risk.",
 "probability_pct": 55,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "Late-cycle surge signals in DOE/NRC-related trend items",
 "Broad reinforcement across multiple domains (policy/tech/energy-security)"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": []
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "uranium",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "new_bullish",
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "freshness_confidence": "medium",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-UR-001",
 "B-UR-002",
 "B-UR-003"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag": "narrative_to_price_translation_risk",
 "market": "uranium",
 "severity": "medium",
 "details": "Many drivers are policy/tech narrative clusters; direct spot/futures linkage may be lagged or episodic."
 },
 {
 "flag": "low_authority_share_overhang",
 "market": "uranium",
 "severity": "medium",
 "details": "Evidence bundles show a meaningful share of lower-tier domains across several trends, reducing firmness of conviction."
 },
 {
 "flag": "vip_singleton_echo_risk",
 "market": "uranium",
 "severity": "low",
 "details": "Multiple VIP outliers are single-source; treated as low-weight add-ons rather than core thesis support."
 },
 {
 "flag": "reversal_watch_due_to_fragility",
 "market": "uranium",
 "severity": "medium",
 "details": "No strong opposing signals detected, but medium fragility implies sentiment could flip on a credible counter-headline."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "uranium",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "trigger_condition": "If bullish newsflow remains dominant over the next 6h and no high-authority opposing catalyst appears."
 },
 {
 "market": "uranium",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "If a fresh (<=2h), high-authority supply-easing or demand-negative signal arrives and contradiction rises materially."
 },
 {
 "market": "uranium",
 "confidence": "low",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "If the next cycle shows sharp swings in directional score (|velocity|>=20) indicating headline-driven whipsaw."
 },
 {
 "market": "uranium",
 "confidence": "low",
 "action": "stay_flat",
 "trigger_condition": "If bullish pressure decays while conviction drops below 45 and fragility rises above 65."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "uranium"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 8,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 8,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 8,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 8,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 28,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 8,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 8,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 8,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 8,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 28,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 10,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 10,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 8,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 30,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 10,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 10,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 8,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 30,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 10,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 10,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 8,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 30,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 10,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 10,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 8,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 30,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 10,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 10,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 8,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 30,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 12,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 12,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 8,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 32,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 12,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 12,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 8,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 32,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 12,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 12,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 8,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 32,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 14,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 14,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 14,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 8,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 34,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 14,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 14,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 14,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 8,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 34,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 16,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 16,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 16,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 8,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 36,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 18,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 8,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 38,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 59,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 20,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 20,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 8,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 40,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 50,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 50,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 50,
 "velocity_score": 30,
 "acceleration_score": 28,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 8,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 70,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 35,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 35,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 35,
 "velocity_score": -15,
 "acceleration_score": -45,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 8,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 55,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 30,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 30,
 "velocity_score": -5,
 "acceleration_score": 10,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 8,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 50,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 28,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 28,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 28,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 8,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 48,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 26,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 26,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 26,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 8,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 46,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 25,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 25,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 25,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 8,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 45,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 59,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 24,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 24,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 24,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 8,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 44,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 24,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 24,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 24,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 8,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 44,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 30,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 30,
 "velocity_score": 6,
 "acceleration_score": 6,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 8,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 50,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 50,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 6,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 12,
 "cross_domain_merges": 3,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Target market resolved explicitly from flight_plan.target_market_code=uranium.",
 "No explicit opposing/negative trend sentiment provided; reversal risk set to medium primarily due to thesis fragility (authority mix + narrative translation risk).",
 "State_change set to new_bullish because no prior market state memory was provided in input."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}