Snapshot

  • subject_area: Silver futures
  • target_market_code: silver
  • ticker:
  • regime_state: rangebound
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: macro_sensitivity (medium)
  • generated_at: 2026-03-16T12:45:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
silver B-silver-01-6h Modest upside bias next 6h, supported by real-rate / USD narratives and precious-metals flows. 56 up accelerating 6h false 62
silver B-silver-02-6h Elevated pullback/reversal risk next 6h if USD strength or real yields rebound; some signals are single-source/fragile. 44 down stable 6h false 62
silver B-silver-03-24h Mild bullish bias over 24h; industrial-demand/solar-adjacent support as secondary tailwind vs macro. 60 up stable 24h false 62

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B_CIS_silver_2026-03-16T12:45:00Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-16T12:45:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Silver futures",
 "market_code": "silver"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 57,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "silver",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "silver"
 ],
 "regime_state": "rangebound",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-silver-01-6h",
 "market": "silver",
 "claim": "Silver futures show a modest upside bias over the next 6 hours, supported primarily by macro/real-rate and USD-linked narratives plus ongoing precious-metals flow signals.",
 "probability_pct": 56,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "real_rates",
 "usd_strength",
 "precious_metals_flows"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-silver-02-6h"
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-silver-02-6h",
 "market": "silver",
 "claim": "Silver futures have elevated pullback/reversal risk over the next 6 hours if USD strength and/or real yields rebound; some recent signals are single-source and therefore fragile.",
 "probability_pct": 44,
 "direction": "down",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "usd_strength",
 "real_rates"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-silver-01-6h"
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-silver-03-24h",
 "market": "silver",
 "claim": "Over the next 24 hours, silver retains a mild bullish bias, with industrial-demand/solar-adjacent narrative support acting as a secondary tailwind versus macro drivers.",
 "probability_pct": 60,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "industrial_demand",
 "precious_metals_flows",
 "real_rates",
 "usd_strength"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": []
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "new_bullish",
 "conviction_score_0_100": 57,
 "freshness_confidence": "medium",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-silver-01-6h",
 "B-silver-03-24h"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "risk_flag": "macro_sensitivity",
 "market": "silver",
 "level": "medium",
 "description": "Direction is materially dependent on USD/real-rate narrative; a fast rates/USD reversal can flip near-term momentum."
 },
 {
 "risk_flag": "single_source_outliers_present",
 "market": "silver",
 "level": "medium",
 "description": "Multiple VIP outliers are single-source; treat as fragile until corroborated."
 },
 {
 "risk_flag": "authority_mix_skew",
 "market": "silver",
 "level": "medium",
 "description": "Evidence bundles include meaningful lower-tier share despite some Tier-A anchors; conviction capped."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "market": "silver",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Directional score stays >= +20 with fresh macro/flows confirmations over the next 6h."
 },
 {
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "market": "silver",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Any fresh (<=6h) counter-signal indicating USD strength/real-yield rebound or rising contradiction."
 },
 {
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "market": "silver",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Contradiction ratio rises above ~0.25 while evidence remains thin/single-source."
 },
 {
 "action": "stay_flat",
 "market": "silver",
 "confidence": "low",
 "trigger_condition": "Directional score drifts back into (-20, +20) with falling freshness confidence."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "silver"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 8,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 54,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 46,
 "net_sentiment_score": 8,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 6,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 38,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 70,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 55,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 45,
 "net_sentiment_score": 10,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 6,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 39,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 70,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 9,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 55,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 46,
 "net_sentiment_score": 9,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 6,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 38,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 71,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 11,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 56,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 45,
 "net_sentiment_score": 11,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 6,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 40,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 70,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 56,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 44,
 "net_sentiment_score": 12,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 6,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 40,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 70,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 14,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 57,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 43,
 "net_sentiment_score": 14,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 6,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 41,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 69,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 16,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 58,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 42,
 "net_sentiment_score": 16,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 6,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 42,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 69,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 59,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 41,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 44,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 68,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 60,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 40,
 "net_sentiment_score": 20,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 46,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 67,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 19,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 60,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 41,
 "net_sentiment_score": 19,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 45,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 68,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 21,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 61,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 40,
 "net_sentiment_score": 21,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 47,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 67,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 61,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 39,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 48,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 60,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 40,
 "net_sentiment_score": 20,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": -3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 45,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 69,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 59,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 41,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 43,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 70,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 19,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 60,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 41,
 "net_sentiment_score": 19,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 44,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 69,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 23,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 62,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 39,
 "net_sentiment_score": 23,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 50,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 26,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 63,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 37,
 "net_sentiment_score": 26,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 28,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 64,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 36,
 "net_sentiment_score": 28,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 65,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 35,
 "net_sentiment_score": 30,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 57,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 29,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 65,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 36,
 "net_sentiment_score": 29,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 55,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 31,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 66,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 35,
 "net_sentiment_score": 31,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 33,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 67,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 34,
 "net_sentiment_score": 33,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 59,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 34,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 67,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 33,
 "net_sentiment_score": 34,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 59,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 36,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 68,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 32,
 "net_sentiment_score": 36,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 61,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 36,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 1,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 12,
 "cross_domain_merges": 2,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "prior_market_state_missing; assumed prior=neutral for state_change derivation",
 "unmapped_signals_present_but_ignored_for_single_market_scope (e.g., non-silver VIP items)"
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}