Snapshot
- subject_area: Silver futures
- target_market_code: silver
- ticker:
- regime_state: rangebound
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: macro_sensitivity (medium)
- generated_at: 2026-03-16T12:45:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| silver | B-silver-01-6h | Modest upside bias next 6h, supported by real-rate / USD narratives and precious-metals flows. | 56 | up | accelerating | 6h | false | 62 |
| silver | B-silver-02-6h | Elevated pullback/reversal risk next 6h if USD strength or real yields rebound; some signals are single-source/fragile. | 44 | down | stable | 6h | false | 62 |
| silver | B-silver-03-24h | Mild bullish bias over 24h; industrial-demand/solar-adjacent support as secondary tailwind vs macro. | 60 | up | stable | 24h | false | 62 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B_CIS_silver_2026-03-16T12:45:00Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-16T12:45:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Silver futures",
"market_code": "silver"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 57,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "silver",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"silver"
],
"regime_state": "rangebound",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-silver-01-6h",
"market": "silver",
"claim": "Silver futures show a modest upside bias over the next 6 hours, supported primarily by macro/real-rate and USD-linked narratives plus ongoing precious-metals flow signals.",
"probability_pct": 56,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"real_rates",
"usd_strength",
"precious_metals_flows"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-silver-02-6h"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-silver-02-6h",
"market": "silver",
"claim": "Silver futures have elevated pullback/reversal risk over the next 6 hours if USD strength and/or real yields rebound; some recent signals are single-source and therefore fragile.",
"probability_pct": 44,
"direction": "down",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"usd_strength",
"real_rates"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-silver-01-6h"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-silver-03-24h",
"market": "silver",
"claim": "Over the next 24 hours, silver retains a mild bullish bias, with industrial-demand/solar-adjacent narrative support acting as a secondary tailwind versus macro drivers.",
"probability_pct": 60,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"industrial_demand",
"precious_metals_flows",
"real_rates",
"usd_strength"
],
"contradicted_by": []
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "silver",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"conviction_score_0_100": 57,
"freshness_confidence": "medium",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-silver-01-6h",
"B-silver-03-24h"
]
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"risk_flag": "macro_sensitivity",
"market": "silver",
"level": "medium",
"description": "Direction is materially dependent on USD/real-rate narrative; a fast rates/USD reversal can flip near-term momentum."
},
{
"risk_flag": "single_source_outliers_present",
"market": "silver",
"level": "medium",
"description": "Multiple VIP outliers are single-source; treat as fragile until corroborated."
},
{
"risk_flag": "authority_mix_skew",
"market": "silver",
"level": "medium",
"description": "Evidence bundles include meaningful lower-tier share despite some Tier-A anchors; conviction capped."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"market": "silver",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Directional score stays >= +20 with fresh macro/flows confirmations over the next 6h."
},
{
"action": "reversal_watch",
"market": "silver",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Any fresh (<=6h) counter-signal indicating USD strength/real-yield rebound or rising contradiction."
},
{
"action": "volatility_watch",
"market": "silver",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Contradiction ratio rises above ~0.25 while evidence remains thin/single-source."
},
{
"action": "stay_flat",
"market": "silver",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "Directional score drifts back into (-20, +20) with falling freshness confidence."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"silver"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 54,
"bearish_pressure_score": 46,
"net_sentiment_score": 8,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 38,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 55,
"bearish_pressure_score": 45,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 39,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 9,
"bullish_pressure_score": 55,
"bearish_pressure_score": 46,
"net_sentiment_score": 9,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 38,
"fragility_score_0_100": 71,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 11,
"bullish_pressure_score": 56,
"bearish_pressure_score": 45,
"net_sentiment_score": 11,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 40,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 56,
"bearish_pressure_score": 44,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 40,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 14,
"bullish_pressure_score": 57,
"bearish_pressure_score": 43,
"net_sentiment_score": 14,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 41,
"fragility_score_0_100": 69,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 16,
"bullish_pressure_score": 58,
"bearish_pressure_score": 42,
"net_sentiment_score": 16,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 42,
"fragility_score_0_100": 69,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 59,
"bearish_pressure_score": 41,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 60,
"bearish_pressure_score": 40,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 67,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 19,
"bullish_pressure_score": 60,
"bearish_pressure_score": 41,
"net_sentiment_score": 19,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 21,
"bullish_pressure_score": 61,
"bearish_pressure_score": 40,
"net_sentiment_score": 21,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 47,
"fragility_score_0_100": 67,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 61,
"bearish_pressure_score": 39,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 60,
"bearish_pressure_score": 40,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 69,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 59,
"bearish_pressure_score": 41,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 43,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 19,
"bullish_pressure_score": 60,
"bearish_pressure_score": 41,
"net_sentiment_score": 19,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 69,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 23,
"bullish_pressure_score": 62,
"bearish_pressure_score": 39,
"net_sentiment_score": 23,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 26,
"bullish_pressure_score": 63,
"bearish_pressure_score": 37,
"net_sentiment_score": 26,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 64,
"bearish_pressure_score": 36,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 65,
"bearish_pressure_score": 35,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 57,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 29,
"bullish_pressure_score": 65,
"bearish_pressure_score": 36,
"net_sentiment_score": 29,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 31,
"bullish_pressure_score": 66,
"bearish_pressure_score": 35,
"net_sentiment_score": 31,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 33,
"bullish_pressure_score": 67,
"bearish_pressure_score": 34,
"net_sentiment_score": 33,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 59,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 34,
"bullish_pressure_score": 67,
"bearish_pressure_score": 33,
"net_sentiment_score": 34,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 59,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 36,
"bullish_pressure_score": 68,
"bearish_pressure_score": 32,
"net_sentiment_score": 36,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 61,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 36,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 1,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 12,
"cross_domain_merges": 2,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"prior_market_state_missing; assumed prior=neutral for state_change derivation",
"unmapped_signals_present_but_ignored_for_single_market_scope (e.g., non-silver VIP items)"
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}