Snapshot

  • subject_area: Lithium futures
  • target_market_code: lithium
  • ticker: null
  • regime_state: unstable
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: high_contradiction_mixed_drivers
  • generated_at: 2026-03-16T19:00:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Unstable
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
lithium B-LI-001 Over the next 24h, lithium futures more likely to trade mixed/sideways as demand-supportive EV/battery signals are offset by supply-expansion/resource-development narratives. 62% mixed stable 24h false 74
lithium B-LI-002 Over the next 24h, marginal upside pressure is slightly more likely than sustained downside, but the edge is thin and fragile. 54% up fading 24h false 74
lithium B-LI-003 Over the next 6h, headline-driven volatility is elevated; brief downside spikes remain plausible even without a durable bearish trend. 46% down stable 6h false 74

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "CIS6B_lithium_20260316T190000Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-16T19:00:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Lithium futures",
 "market_code": "lithium"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Unstable",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 41,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 74,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "lithium",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "lithium"
 ],
 "regime_state": "unstable",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-LI-001",
 "market": "lithium",
 "claim": "Over the next 24h, lithium futures are more likely to trade mixed/sideways because demand-supportive EV/battery signals are offset by supply-expansion/resource-development narratives.",
 "probability_pct": 62,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "EV adoption / OEM electrification narratives (demand supportive)",
 "Battery manufacturing capacity expansion narratives (demand supportive)",
 "Lithium resource development / extraction expansion narratives (supply supportive, price-capping)",
 "Regulatory/newsflow dispersion across regions (raises contradiction)"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "Any concentrated, high-authority, near-term shock affecting physical supply or EV demand"
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-LI-002",
 "market": "lithium",
 "claim": "Over the next 24h, marginal upside pressure is slightly more likely than a sustained downside move, but the edge is thin and fragile.",
 "probability_pct": 54,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "fading",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "Fresh demand-side thematic reinforcement (EV adoption, battery capacity)",
 "Policy/regulatory attention sustaining sector salience"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "Fresh, credible evidence of near-term supply glut or abrupt EV demand slowdown"
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-LI-003",
 "market": "lithium",
 "claim": "Over the next 6h, headline-driven volatility is elevated; brief downside spikes remain plausible even without a durable bearish trend.",
 "probability_pct": 46,
 "direction": "down",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "Regulatory/legal noise channels and reputational-amplifier anomalies",
 "High narrative contradiction (mixed drivers) increasing whipsaw risk"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "Sustained, coherent positive newsflow with corroboration across higher-authority sources"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "directional_state": "neutral_mixed",
 "momentum_state": "stable",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "unchanged",
 "conviction_score_0_100": 41,
 "freshness_confidence": "medium",
 "catalyst_type": "unclear",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 74,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-LI-001",
 "B-LI-002",
 "B-LI-003"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "risk_flag": "high_contradiction_mixed_drivers",
 "market": "lithium",
 "severity": "high",
 "notes": "Demand-supportive EV/battery signals coexist with supply-expansion/resource-development themes; net directional edge is weak."
 },
 {
 "risk_flag": "authority_mix_low_tier_overhang",
 "market": "lithium",
 "severity": "medium",
 "notes": "Evidence bundles show meaningful low-authority share and several single-source VIP/risk items, increasing false-positive/whipsaw risk."
 },
 {
 "risk_flag": "policy_regulatory_noise",
 "market": "lithium",
 "severity": "medium",
 "notes": "Regulatory/legal narratives present across multiple jurisdictions; can move sentiment without clear price-direction mapping."
 },
 {
 "risk_flag": "headline_whipsaw_risk",
 "market": "lithium",
 "severity": "medium",
 "notes": "Medium reversal-risk regime due to mixed signals and non-unified catalyst structure."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "confidence": "high",
 "trigger_condition": "Stay flat while directional_score_signed remains between -20 and +20 and contradiction remains elevated."
 },
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Volatility watch if fresh, higher-authority signals arrive that strongly tilt either supply disruption (bullish) or supply glut (bearish)."
 },
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Reversal watch if a coherent opposing narrative cluster appears within <=6h with corroboration (reducing contradiction ratio)."
 },
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "confidence": "low",
 "trigger_condition": "Watch long bias only if fresh evidence density rises and net directional_score_signed sustains >= +20 with falling contradiction ratio."
 },
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "confidence": "low",
 "trigger_condition": "Watch short bias only if fresh evidence density rises and net directional_score_signed sustains <= -20 with falling contradiction ratio."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [
 "lithium"
 ],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T19:00:00Z",
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 28,
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 },
 {
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 {
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 {
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 {
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 {
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 },
 {
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 },
 {
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 5,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 50,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 45,
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 4,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 49,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 45,
 "net_sentiment_score": 4,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.67,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 36,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 75,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 15,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "down",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 3,
 "signal_regime": "mixed_flat"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "trends_seen": 13,
 "trends_admitted": 10,
 "cross_domain_merges": 3,
 "stale_suppression_count": 1,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "No v2 trend_physics/trend_state_memory fields were provided in inputs; directional synthesis used heuristic weighting from temporal_profile, evidence_recency_proxy, relevance, and authority/echo-risk markers.",
 "Directional view capped by mixed demand vs supply narratives and uneven authority mix across the evidence bundles."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}