Snapshot
- subject_area: Lithium futures
- target_market_code: lithium
- ticker: null
- regime_state: unstable
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: high_contradiction_mixed_drivers
- generated_at: 2026-03-16T19:00:00Z
- sentiment_word: Unstable
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market |
belief_id |
claim |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| lithium |
B-LI-001 |
Over the next 24h, lithium futures more likely to trade mixed/sideways as demand-supportive EV/battery signals are offset by supply-expansion/resource-development narratives. |
62% |
mixed |
stable |
24h |
false |
74 |
| lithium |
B-LI-002 |
Over the next 24h, marginal upside pressure is slightly more likely than sustained downside, but the edge is thin and fragile. |
54% |
up |
fading |
24h |
false |
74 |
| lithium |
B-LI-003 |
Over the next 6h, headline-driven volatility is elevated; brief downside spikes remain plausible even without a durable bearish trend. |
46% |
down |
stable |
6h |
false |
74 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "CIS6B_lithium_20260316T190000Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-16T19:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Lithium futures",
"market_code": "lithium"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Unstable",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 41,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 74,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "lithium",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"lithium"
],
"regime_state": "unstable",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-LI-001",
"market": "lithium",
"claim": "Over the next 24h, lithium futures are more likely to trade mixed/sideways because demand-supportive EV/battery signals are offset by supply-expansion/resource-development narratives.",
"probability_pct": 62,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"EV adoption / OEM electrification narratives (demand supportive)",
"Battery manufacturing capacity expansion narratives (demand supportive)",
"Lithium resource development / extraction expansion narratives (supply supportive, price-capping)",
"Regulatory/newsflow dispersion across regions (raises contradiction)"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Any concentrated, high-authority, near-term shock affecting physical supply or EV demand"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-LI-002",
"market": "lithium",
"claim": "Over the next 24h, marginal upside pressure is slightly more likely than a sustained downside move, but the edge is thin and fragile.",
"probability_pct": 54,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"Fresh demand-side thematic reinforcement (EV adoption, battery capacity)",
"Policy/regulatory attention sustaining sector salience"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Fresh, credible evidence of near-term supply glut or abrupt EV demand slowdown"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-LI-003",
"market": "lithium",
"claim": "Over the next 6h, headline-driven volatility is elevated; brief downside spikes remain plausible even without a durable bearish trend.",
"probability_pct": 46,
"direction": "down",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"Regulatory/legal noise channels and reputational-amplifier anomalies",
"High narrative contradiction (mixed drivers) increasing whipsaw risk"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Sustained, coherent positive newsflow with corroboration across higher-authority sources"
]
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "lithium",
"directional_state": "neutral_mixed",
"momentum_state": "stable",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "unchanged",
"conviction_score_0_100": 41,
"freshness_confidence": "medium",
"catalyst_type": "unclear",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 74,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-LI-001",
"B-LI-002",
"B-LI-003"
]
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"risk_flag": "high_contradiction_mixed_drivers",
"market": "lithium",
"severity": "high",
"notes": "Demand-supportive EV/battery signals coexist with supply-expansion/resource-development themes; net directional edge is weak."
},
{
"risk_flag": "authority_mix_low_tier_overhang",
"market": "lithium",
"severity": "medium",
"notes": "Evidence bundles show meaningful low-authority share and several single-source VIP/risk items, increasing false-positive/whipsaw risk."
},
{
"risk_flag": "policy_regulatory_noise",
"market": "lithium",
"severity": "medium",
"notes": "Regulatory/legal narratives present across multiple jurisdictions; can move sentiment without clear price-direction mapping."
},
{
"risk_flag": "headline_whipsaw_risk",
"market": "lithium",
"severity": "medium",
"notes": "Medium reversal-risk regime due to mixed signals and non-unified catalyst structure."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "lithium",
"confidence": "high",
"trigger_condition": "Stay flat while directional_score_signed remains between -20 and +20 and contradiction remains elevated."
},
{
"market": "lithium",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Volatility watch if fresh, higher-authority signals arrive that strongly tilt either supply disruption (bullish) or supply glut (bearish)."
},
{
"market": "lithium",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Reversal watch if a coherent opposing narrative cluster appears within <=6h with corroboration (reducing contradiction ratio)."
},
{
"market": "lithium",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "Watch long bias only if fresh evidence density rises and net directional_score_signed sustains >= +20 with falling contradiction ratio."
},
{
"market": "lithium",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "Watch short bias only if fresh evidence density rises and net directional_score_signed sustains <= -20 with falling contradiction ratio."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [
"lithium"
],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 45,
"bearish_pressure_score": 45,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.7,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 28,
"fragility_score_0_100": 76,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 45,
"bearish_pressure_score": 45,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.7,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 28,
"fragility_score_0_100": 76,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T22:00:00Z",
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"bearish_pressure_score": 45,
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"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.7,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 28,
"fragility_score_0_100": 76,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T23:00:00Z",
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"bullish_pressure_score": 45,
"bearish_pressure_score": 45,
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"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.7,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 28,
"fragility_score_0_100": 76,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T00:00:00Z",
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"bearish_pressure_score": 45,
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},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T00:00:00Z",
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"bearish_pressure_score": 45,
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"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
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"bearish_pressure_score": 45,
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},
{
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"acceleration_score": 0,
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 45,
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"acceleration_score": 0,
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"conviction_score_0_100": 28,
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},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 4,
"bullish_pressure_score": 49,
"bearish_pressure_score": 45,
"net_sentiment_score": 4,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.67,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 32,
"fragility_score_0_100": 74,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 5,
"bullish_pressure_score": 50,
"bearish_pressure_score": 45,
"net_sentiment_score": 5,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.66,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 33,
"fragility_score_0_100": 74,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 6,
"bullish_pressure_score": 51,
"bearish_pressure_score": 45,
"net_sentiment_score": 6,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.65,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 33,
"fragility_score_0_100": 74,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 7,
"bullish_pressure_score": 52,
"bearish_pressure_score": 45,
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"velocity_score": 1,
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"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 35,
"fragility_score_0_100": 73,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 55,
"bearish_pressure_score": 45,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.61,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 40,
"fragility_score_0_100": 72,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 15,
"bullish_pressure_score": 60,
"bearish_pressure_score": 45,
"net_sentiment_score": 15,
"velocity_score": 5,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.56,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 71,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 57,
"bearish_pressure_score": 45,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": -3,
"acceleration_score": -8,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.58,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 41,
"fragility_score_0_100": 73,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 9,
"bullish_pressure_score": 54,
"bearish_pressure_score": 45,
"net_sentiment_score": 9,
"velocity_score": -3,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.62,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 37,
"fragility_score_0_100": 74,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 53,
"bearish_pressure_score": 45,
"net_sentiment_score": 8,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.63,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 36,
"fragility_score_0_100": 74,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 7,
"bullish_pressure_score": 52,
"bearish_pressure_score": 45,
"net_sentiment_score": 7,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.64,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 35,
"fragility_score_0_100": 74,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 6,
"bullish_pressure_score": 51,
"bearish_pressure_score": 45,
"net_sentiment_score": 6,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.65,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 33,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 5,
"bullish_pressure_score": 50,
"bearish_pressure_score": 45,
"net_sentiment_score": 5,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.66,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 34,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 4,
"bullish_pressure_score": 49,
"bearish_pressure_score": 45,
"net_sentiment_score": 4,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.67,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 36,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 15,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "down",
"latest_inflection_strength": 3,
"signal_regime": "mixed_flat"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"trends_seen": 13,
"trends_admitted": 10,
"cross_domain_merges": 3,
"stale_suppression_count": 1,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"No v2 trend_physics/trend_state_memory fields were provided in inputs; directional synthesis used heuristic weighting from temporal_profile, evidence_recency_proxy, relevance, and authority/echo-risk markers.",
"Directional view capped by mixed demand vs supply narratives and uneven authority mix across the evidence bundles."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}