• subject_area: Lithium futures
  • target_market_code: lithium
  • ticker: null
  • regime_state: unstable
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: data_quality_low_authority_overhang (medium)
  • generated_at: 2026-03-16T13:00:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0
market belief_id claim (trimmed) prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
lithium B-LI-001 Net narrative pressure remains tilted toward higher lithium futures sentiment (EV adoption + battery manufacturing expansion), supported by multi-source reinforcement. 62 up accelerating 24h false 52
lithium B-LI-002 Battery chemistry innovation headlines create substitution / intensity-variance risk that can cap upside follow-through despite positive EV narratives. 46 mixed stable 24h false 52
lithium B-LI-003 Short-horizon regulatory/legal noise around EV ecosystem actors adds downside shock risk to lithium sentiment via risk-off spillover. 38 down fading 6h false 52
{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-lithium-20260316T130000Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-16T13:00:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Lithium futures",
 "market_code": "lithium"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 64,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "lithium",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "lithium"
 ],
 "regime_state": "unstable",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-LI-001",
 "market": "lithium",
 "claim": "Net narrative pressure remains tilted toward higher lithium futures sentiment (demand-side EV adoption + battery manufacturing expansion), with supportive multi-source reinforcement.",
 "probability_pct": 62,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "EV adoption demand pulse (BYD/Toyota/BMW-related adoption narratives)",
 "Battery manufacturing capacity expansion (CATL-related expansion narratives)",
 "Policy/regulatory tailwinds (EU/commission regulation themes) supporting electrification trajectory"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-LI-002",
 "B-LI-003"
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-LI-002",
 "market": "lithium",
 "claim": "Battery chemistry innovation headlines create substitution / intensity-variance risk that can cap upside follow-through even if EV demand narratives remain positive.",
 "probability_pct": 46,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "Battery chemistry advancement cluster (multiple R&D / product-innovation mentions)",
 "Narrative dispersion across many lower-authority domains (raises interpretation variance)"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-LI-001"
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-LI-003",
 "market": "lithium",
 "claim": "Short-horizon regulatory/legal noise around EV ecosystem actors adds downside shock risk to lithium sentiment via risk-off spillover (even if lithium-specific fundamentals are unchanged).",
 "probability_pct": 38,
 "direction": "down",
 "velocity": "fading",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "Risk anomaly signals (regulatory/reputational amplifiers) with low domain diversity",
 "Isolated negative policy/regulation VIP outlier"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-LI-001"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "new_bullish",
 "conviction_score_0_100": 64,
 "freshness_confidence": "medium",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-LI-001",
 "B-LI-002",
 "B-LI-003"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag": "contradiction_present_low_intensity",
 "market": "lithium",
 "severity": "low",
 "details": "Directional positives dominate, but there is a non-zero opposing cluster from isolated policy/regulatory/risk anomalies; raises reversal risk from low to medium."
 },
 {
 "flag": "data_quality_low_authority_overhang",
 "market": "lithium",
 "severity": "medium",
 "details": "Several high-heat narratives show a high share of lower-authority sources; increases fragility and whipsaw risk despite bullish tilt."
 },
 {
 "flag": "narrative_whipsaw_substitution_risk",
 "market": "lithium",
 "severity": "medium",
 "details": "Chemistry-innovation headlines can be interpreted as either lithium-demand supportive (scale-up) or lithium-intensity reducing (substitution/efficiency), adding interpretive volatility."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action_label": "watch_long_bias",
 "trigger_condition": "Maintain if net directional score stays >= +20 and fresh evidence continues to cluster in the most recent 6h window."
 },
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action_label": "reversal_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "Escalate if fresh (<=2h) opposing high-authority signals appear and contradiction ratio rises materially versus current baseline."
 },
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action_label": "volatility_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "Treat as elevated if chemistry/substitution narratives spike again while regulatory risk anomalies recur (sparse but high-noise pattern)."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "lithium"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 59,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 41,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 51,
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T14:00:00Z",
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T15:00:00Z",
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 "velocity_score": -1,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 50,
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T16:00:00Z",
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 "directional_score_signed": 18,
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 "velocity_score": 1,
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 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 51,
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T17:00:00Z",
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 "directional_score_signed": 19,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 59.5,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 40.5,
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 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 51,
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T18:00:00Z",
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 "directional_score_signed": 20,
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 40,
 "net_sentiment_score": 20,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 20,
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 40,
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 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T20:00:00Z",
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 "directional_score_signed": 21,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 60.5,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 39.5,
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T21:00:00Z",
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 "directional_score_signed": 21,
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 39.5,
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 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T22:00:00Z",
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 39.5,
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 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T23:00:00Z",
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 "directional_score_signed": 22,
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 39,
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 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
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 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 61,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 39,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 53,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 23,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 61.5,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 38.5,
 "net_sentiment_score": 23,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 23,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 61.5,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 38.5,
 "net_sentiment_score": 23,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 24,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 62,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 38,
 "net_sentiment_score": 24,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 24,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 62,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 38,
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 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
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 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 24,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 62,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 38,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
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 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 25,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 62.5,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 37.5,
 "net_sentiment_score": 25,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 55,
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 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 25,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 62.5,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 37.5,
 "net_sentiment_score": 25,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 55,
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 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 27,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 63.5,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 36.5,
 "net_sentiment_score": 27,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 29,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 64.5,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 35.5,
 "net_sentiment_score": 29,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 57,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 32,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 66,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 34,
 "net_sentiment_score": 32,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 59,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 36,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 68,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 32,
 "net_sentiment_score": 36,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 53,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 40,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 70,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
 "net_sentiment_score": 40,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 64,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 40,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": -10,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 22,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 12,
 "cross_domain_merges": 3,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Target market resolved explicitly from flight_plan.target_market_code.",
 "No explicit per-trend v2 physics objects present; used available proxies (recency/temporal_profile/velocity_hint/consistency_score) for conservative state synthesis.",
 "Opposing signals exist but are sparse and often low-diversity; reversal risk set to medium without triggering late-breaking kill switch."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}