- subject_area: Lithium futures
- target_market_code: lithium
- ticker: null
- regime_state: unstable
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: data_quality_low_authority_overhang (medium)
- generated_at: 2026-03-16T13:00:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
| market |
belief_id |
claim (trimmed) |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| lithium |
B-LI-001 |
Net narrative pressure remains tilted toward higher lithium futures sentiment (EV adoption + battery manufacturing expansion), supported by multi-source reinforcement. |
62 |
up |
accelerating |
24h |
false |
52 |
| lithium |
B-LI-002 |
Battery chemistry innovation headlines create substitution / intensity-variance risk that can cap upside follow-through despite positive EV narratives. |
46 |
mixed |
stable |
24h |
false |
52 |
| lithium |
B-LI-003 |
Short-horizon regulatory/legal noise around EV ecosystem actors adds downside shock risk to lithium sentiment via risk-off spillover. |
38 |
down |
fading |
6h |
false |
52 |
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-lithium-20260316T130000Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-16T13:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Lithium futures",
"market_code": "lithium"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "lithium",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"lithium"
],
"regime_state": "unstable",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-LI-001",
"market": "lithium",
"claim": "Net narrative pressure remains tilted toward higher lithium futures sentiment (demand-side EV adoption + battery manufacturing expansion), with supportive multi-source reinforcement.",
"probability_pct": 62,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"EV adoption demand pulse (BYD/Toyota/BMW-related adoption narratives)",
"Battery manufacturing capacity expansion (CATL-related expansion narratives)",
"Policy/regulatory tailwinds (EU/commission regulation themes) supporting electrification trajectory"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-LI-002",
"B-LI-003"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-LI-002",
"market": "lithium",
"claim": "Battery chemistry innovation headlines create substitution / intensity-variance risk that can cap upside follow-through even if EV demand narratives remain positive.",
"probability_pct": 46,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"Battery chemistry advancement cluster (multiple R&D / product-innovation mentions)",
"Narrative dispersion across many lower-authority domains (raises interpretation variance)"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-LI-001"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-LI-003",
"market": "lithium",
"claim": "Short-horizon regulatory/legal noise around EV ecosystem actors adds downside shock risk to lithium sentiment via risk-off spillover (even if lithium-specific fundamentals are unchanged).",
"probability_pct": 38,
"direction": "down",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"Risk anomaly signals (regulatory/reputational amplifiers) with low domain diversity",
"Isolated negative policy/regulation VIP outlier"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-LI-001"
]
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "lithium",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"freshness_confidence": "medium",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-LI-001",
"B-LI-002",
"B-LI-003"
]
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "contradiction_present_low_intensity",
"market": "lithium",
"severity": "low",
"details": "Directional positives dominate, but there is a non-zero opposing cluster from isolated policy/regulatory/risk anomalies; raises reversal risk from low to medium."
},
{
"flag": "data_quality_low_authority_overhang",
"market": "lithium",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "Several high-heat narratives show a high share of lower-authority sources; increases fragility and whipsaw risk despite bullish tilt."
},
{
"flag": "narrative_whipsaw_substitution_risk",
"market": "lithium",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "Chemistry-innovation headlines can be interpreted as either lithium-demand supportive (scale-up) or lithium-intensity reducing (substitution/efficiency), adding interpretive volatility."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "lithium",
"confidence": "medium",
"action_label": "watch_long_bias",
"trigger_condition": "Maintain if net directional score stays >= +20 and fresh evidence continues to cluster in the most recent 6h window."
},
{
"market": "lithium",
"confidence": "medium",
"action_label": "reversal_watch",
"trigger_condition": "Escalate if fresh (<=2h) opposing high-authority signals appear and contradiction ratio rises materially versus current baseline."
},
{
"market": "lithium",
"confidence": "medium",
"action_label": "volatility_watch",
"trigger_condition": "Treat as elevated if chemistry/substitution narratives spike again while regulatory risk anomalies recur (sparse but high-noise pattern)."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"lithium"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 59,
"bearish_pressure_score": 41,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 51,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
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"bearish_pressure_score": 41,
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"velocity_score": 0,
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"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
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"conviction_score_0_100": 51,
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"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T15:00:00Z",
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"bearish_pressure_score": 41.5,
"net_sentiment_score": 17,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
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"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
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"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T16:00:00Z",
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"velocity_score": 1,
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"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 51,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 19,
"bullish_pressure_score": 59.5,
"bearish_pressure_score": 40.5,
"net_sentiment_score": 19,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 51,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 60,
"bearish_pressure_score": 40,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
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"bearish_pressure_score": 40,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
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"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
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"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 21,
"bullish_pressure_score": 60.5,
"bearish_pressure_score": 39.5,
"net_sentiment_score": 21,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
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"conviction_score_0_100": 53,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 21,
"bullish_pressure_score": 60.5,
"bearish_pressure_score": 39.5,
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"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
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"conviction_score_0_100": 53,
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"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T22:00:00Z",
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"directional_score_signed": 21,
"bullish_pressure_score": 60.5,
"bearish_pressure_score": 39.5,
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"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
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"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 61,
"bearish_pressure_score": 39,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 53,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 61,
"bearish_pressure_score": 39,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 53,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 23,
"bullish_pressure_score": 61.5,
"bearish_pressure_score": 38.5,
"net_sentiment_score": 23,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 23,
"bullish_pressure_score": 61.5,
"bearish_pressure_score": 38.5,
"net_sentiment_score": 23,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 62,
"bearish_pressure_score": 38,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 62,
"bearish_pressure_score": 38,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 62,
"bearish_pressure_score": 38,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 25,
"bullish_pressure_score": 62.5,
"bearish_pressure_score": 37.5,
"net_sentiment_score": 25,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 25,
"bullish_pressure_score": 62.5,
"bearish_pressure_score": 37.5,
"net_sentiment_score": 25,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 27,
"bullish_pressure_score": 63.5,
"bearish_pressure_score": 36.5,
"net_sentiment_score": 27,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 29,
"bullish_pressure_score": 64.5,
"bearish_pressure_score": 35.5,
"net_sentiment_score": 29,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 57,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 32,
"bullish_pressure_score": 66,
"bearish_pressure_score": 34,
"net_sentiment_score": 32,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 59,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 36,
"bullish_pressure_score": 68,
"bearish_pressure_score": 32,
"net_sentiment_score": 36,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 53,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 40,
"bullish_pressure_score": 70,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 40,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 40,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": -10,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 22,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 12,
"cross_domain_merges": 3,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Target market resolved explicitly from flight_plan.target_market_code.",
"No explicit per-trend v2 physics objects present; used available proxies (recency/temporal_profile/velocity_hint/consistency_score) for conservative state synthesis.",
"Opposing signals exist but are sparse and often low-diversity; reversal risk set to medium without triggering late-breaking kill switch."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}