Snapshot
- subject_area: Lithium futures
- target_market_code: lithium
- ticker: ""
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: push_pull_supply_vs_demand
- generated_at: 2026-03-16T05:00:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim (trimmed) | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| lithium | B_lithium_24h_001 | Over the next 24h, lithium futures bias remains upward as EV adoption and battery manufacturing capacity expansion narratives dominate. | 58 | up | stable | 24h | false | 66 |
| lithium | B_lithium_24h_002 | Reversal/pullback risk non-trivial within 24h because supply-side expansion and extraction/resource development narratives can cap upside. | 46 | mixed | accelerating | 24h | false | 66 |
| lithium | B_lithium_6h_001 | Over the next 6h, sentiment is biased upward but fragile; incremental bullish pressure driven by clustered EV/battery-capacity headlines. | 55 | up | accelerating | 6h | false | 66 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B_lithium_2026-03-16T050000Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-16T05:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Lithium futures",
"market_code": "lithium"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "lithium",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"lithium"
],
"regime_state": "tightening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B_lithium_24h_001",
"market": "lithium",
"claim": "Over the next 24h, lithium futures sentiment bias remains upward as EV adoption and battery manufacturing capacity expansion narratives dominate the latest evidence stream.",
"probability_pct": 58,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"EV adoption / demand reinforcement (BYD/auto OEM adoption themes)",
"Battery manufacturing capacity expansion (CATL and peers) indicating forward demand pull for battery inputs",
"Ongoing battery chemistry/technology coverage sustaining sector attention"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B_lithium_24h_002"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B_lithium_24h_002",
"market": "lithium",
"claim": "Reversal/pullback risk is non-trivial within 24h because supply-side expansion and extraction/resource development narratives can cap upside and raise push-pull uncertainty.",
"probability_pct": 46,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"Supply expansion/extraction themes (e.g., producer extraction/resource development coverage)",
"Regulatory/implementation tail-risks around EV ecosystem infrastructure and enforcement narratives",
"High share of lower-authority / single-source items increasing signal fragility"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B_lithium_24h_001"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B_lithium_6h_001",
"market": "lithium",
"claim": "Over the next 6h, sentiment is biased upward but remains fragile; incremental bullish pressure is driven by late-cycle clustering of EV/battery-capacity headlines rather than broad, evenly-distributed fresh evidence.",
"probability_pct": 55,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"Recent clustering of demand-side and capacity-expansion updates in the most recent buckets",
"Low explicit contradiction records in admitted trend objects"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B_lithium_24h_002"
]
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "lithium",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"freshness_confidence": "medium",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B_lithium_24h_001",
"B_lithium_6h_001"
]
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "push_pull_supply_vs_demand",
"market": "lithium",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Demand-side EV/battery capacity expansion themes skew bullish, but supply/extraction/resource-development themes add meaningful counter-pressure and increase reversal risk."
},
{
"flag": "low_authority_mix_fragility",
"market": "lithium",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Multiple admitted trend bundles show a high low-authority share; treat conviction as capped and fragility elevated."
},
{
"flag": "single_source_echo_risk_vips",
"market": "lithium",
"severity": "low",
"detail": "Several VIP outliers are single-source items; they are treated as secondary context and increase fragility rather than conviction."
},
{
"flag": "freshness_clustered_not_uniform",
"market": "lithium",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Fresh evidence appears clustered in a few recent time buckets; outside those buckets, signal becomes sparse, raising whipsaw risk."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "lithium",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Maintain bias while fresh demand/capacity-expansion items continue to print without a matching fresh supply shock in the next 6\u201324h buckets."
},
{
"market": "lithium",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Escalate if a fresh (\u22642h) high-authority opposing signal appears (e.g., clear supply surge / policy clampdown) and contradiction_ratio rises materially versus prior buckets."
},
{
"market": "lithium",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"confidence": "high",
"trigger_condition": "Expect choppiness when bullish demand headlines and bearish supply/extraction headlines land in the same short window (contradiction_ratio \u2265 0.30)."
},
{
"market": "lithium",
"action": "stay_flat",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "Consider a flat stance only if fresh_evidence_count stays near-zero across multiple consecutive buckets and net sentiment compresses into neutral (|directional_score_signed| < 20)."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"lithium"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 26,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 28,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 26,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 28,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 26,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 28,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 26,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 28,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 26,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 28,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 26,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 28,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 26,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 28,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 24,
"bearish_pressure_score": 16,
"net_sentiment_score": 8,
"velocity_score": -4,
"acceleration_score": -4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.35,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 42,
"fragility_score_0_100": 74,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
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"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
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"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 8,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
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"stale_evidence_count": 2,
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"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
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"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
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"velocity_score": 0,
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"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T15:00:00Z",
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"conviction_score_0_100": 30,
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"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T16:00:00Z",
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"bullish_pressure_score": 26,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
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"conviction_score_0_100": 30,
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"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 32,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 10,
"acceleration_score": 10,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 30,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": -4,
"acceleration_score": -14,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 34,
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"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 15,
"bullish_pressure_score": 28,
"bearish_pressure_score": 13,
"net_sentiment_score": 15,
"velocity_score": -3,
"acceleration_score": 1,
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"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 32,
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"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 15,
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"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 32,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 15,
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"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 15,
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},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 15,
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},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 15,
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"bearish_pressure_score": 13,
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"conviction_score_0_100": 32,
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"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 15,
"bullish_pressure_score": 28,
"bearish_pressure_score": 13,
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"velocity_score": 0,
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"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 32,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 31,
"bearish_pressure_score": 11,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": 5,
"acceleration_score": 5,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 43,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 30,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -7,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 34,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 40,
"bullish_pressure_score": 55,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 40,
"velocity_score": 22,
"acceleration_score": 24,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": true,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T23:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 15,
"bullish_pressure_score": 28,
"bearish_pressure_score": 13,
"net_sentiment_score": 15,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 32,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T23:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 15,
"bullish_pressure_score": 28,
"bearish_pressure_score": 13,
"net_sentiment_score": 15,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 32,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T00:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 15,
"bullish_pressure_score": 28,
"bearish_pressure_score": 13,
"net_sentiment_score": 15,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 32,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T00:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 15,
"bullish_pressure_score": 28,
"bearish_pressure_score": 13,
"net_sentiment_score": 15,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 32,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T01:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 15,
"bullish_pressure_score": 28,
"bearish_pressure_score": 13,
"net_sentiment_score": 15,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 32,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T01:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 15,
"bullish_pressure_score": 28,
"bearish_pressure_score": 13,
"net_sentiment_score": 15,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 32,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T02:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 30,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 41,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T02:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 31,
"bearish_pressure_score": 11,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 34,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T03:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 30,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 34,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T03:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 30,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 34,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T04:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 32,
"bullish_pressure_score": 47,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 32,
"velocity_score": 14,
"acceleration_score": 14,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 57,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T04:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 40,
"bullish_pressure_score": 55,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 40,
"velocity_score": 8,
"acceleration_score": -6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 40,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": -5,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 22,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 12,
"cross_domain_merges": 2,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 12,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"No v2 trend_physics / trend_state_memory fields were provided; used proxy cues (recency proxies, narrative heat, and qualitative driver direction) for momentum/reversal heuristics.",
"VIP outliers and risk anomalies were treated as fragility modifiers due to single-source/echo-risk characteristics."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}