Snapshot

  • subject_area: Lithium futures
  • target_market_code: lithium
  • ticker: ""
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: push_pull_supply_vs_demand
  • generated_at: 2026-03-16T05:00:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim (trimmed) prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
lithium B_lithium_24h_001 Over the next 24h, lithium futures bias remains upward as EV adoption and battery manufacturing capacity expansion narratives dominate. 58 up stable 24h false 66
lithium B_lithium_24h_002 Reversal/pullback risk non-trivial within 24h because supply-side expansion and extraction/resource development narratives can cap upside. 46 mixed accelerating 24h false 66
lithium B_lithium_6h_001 Over the next 6h, sentiment is biased upward but fragile; incremental bullish pressure driven by clustered EV/battery-capacity headlines. 55 up accelerating 6h false 66

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B_lithium_2026-03-16T050000Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-16T05:00:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Lithium futures",
 "market_code": "lithium"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "lithium",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "lithium"
 ],
 "regime_state": "tightening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B_lithium_24h_001",
 "market": "lithium",
 "claim": "Over the next 24h, lithium futures sentiment bias remains upward as EV adoption and battery manufacturing capacity expansion narratives dominate the latest evidence stream.",
 "probability_pct": 58,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "EV adoption / demand reinforcement (BYD/auto OEM adoption themes)",
 "Battery manufacturing capacity expansion (CATL and peers) indicating forward demand pull for battery inputs",
 "Ongoing battery chemistry/technology coverage sustaining sector attention"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B_lithium_24h_002"
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B_lithium_24h_002",
 "market": "lithium",
 "claim": "Reversal/pullback risk is non-trivial within 24h because supply-side expansion and extraction/resource development narratives can cap upside and raise push-pull uncertainty.",
 "probability_pct": 46,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "Supply expansion/extraction themes (e.g., producer extraction/resource development coverage)",
 "Regulatory/implementation tail-risks around EV ecosystem infrastructure and enforcement narratives",
 "High share of lower-authority / single-source items increasing signal fragility"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B_lithium_24h_001"
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B_lithium_6h_001",
 "market": "lithium",
 "claim": "Over the next 6h, sentiment is biased upward but remains fragile; incremental bullish pressure is driven by late-cycle clustering of EV/battery-capacity headlines rather than broad, evenly-distributed fresh evidence.",
 "probability_pct": 55,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "Recent clustering of demand-side and capacity-expansion updates in the most recent buckets",
 "Low explicit contradiction records in admitted trend objects"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B_lithium_24h_002"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "new_bullish",
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "freshness_confidence": "medium",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B_lithium_24h_001",
 "B_lithium_6h_001"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag": "push_pull_supply_vs_demand",
 "market": "lithium",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "Demand-side EV/battery capacity expansion themes skew bullish, but supply/extraction/resource-development themes add meaningful counter-pressure and increase reversal risk."
 },
 {
 "flag": "low_authority_mix_fragility",
 "market": "lithium",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "Multiple admitted trend bundles show a high low-authority share; treat conviction as capped and fragility elevated."
 },
 {
 "flag": "single_source_echo_risk_vips",
 "market": "lithium",
 "severity": "low",
 "detail": "Several VIP outliers are single-source items; they are treated as secondary context and increase fragility rather than conviction."
 },
 {
 "flag": "freshness_clustered_not_uniform",
 "market": "lithium",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "Fresh evidence appears clustered in a few recent time buckets; outside those buckets, signal becomes sparse, raising whipsaw risk."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Maintain bias while fresh demand/capacity-expansion items continue to print without a matching fresh supply shock in the next 6\u201324h buckets."
 },
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Escalate if a fresh (\u22642h) high-authority opposing signal appears (e.g., clear supply surge / policy clampdown) and contradiction_ratio rises materially versus prior buckets."
 },
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "confidence": "high",
 "trigger_condition": "Expect choppiness when bullish demand headlines and bearish supply/extraction headlines land in the same short window (contradiction_ratio \u2265 0.30)."
 },
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "action": "stay_flat",
 "confidence": "low",
 "trigger_condition": "Consider a flat stance only if fresh_evidence_count stays near-zero across multiple consecutive buckets and net sentiment compresses into neutral (|directional_score_signed| < 20)."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "lithium"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 26,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
 "net_sentiment_score": 12,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 28,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 70,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 26,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
 "net_sentiment_score": 12,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 28,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 70,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 26,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
 "net_sentiment_score": 12,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 28,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 70,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 26,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
 "net_sentiment_score": 12,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 28,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 70,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 26,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
 "net_sentiment_score": 12,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 28,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 70,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 26,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
 "net_sentiment_score": 12,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 28,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 70,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 26,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
 "net_sentiment_score": 12,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 28,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 70,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 8,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 24,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 16,
 "net_sentiment_score": 8,
 "velocity_score": -4,
 "acceleration_score": -4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.35,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 42,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 74,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 26,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
 "net_sentiment_score": 12,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 8,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 30,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 70,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 26,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
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 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 30,
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
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 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
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 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 30,
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T16:00:00Z",
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
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 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 30,
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 32,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": 10,
 "acceleration_score": 10,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 45,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 30,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": -4,
 "acceleration_score": -14,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 34,
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 15,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 28,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 13,
 "net_sentiment_score": 15,
 "velocity_score": -3,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 32,
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 15,
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 "net_sentiment_score": 15,
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 "acceleration_score": 3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
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 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 32,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 68,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 15,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 28,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 13,
 "net_sentiment_score": 15,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 32,
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 15,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 28,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 13,
 "net_sentiment_score": 15,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 32,
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 15,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 32,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 68,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 15,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 28,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 13,
 "net_sentiment_score": 15,
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 "acceleration_score": 0,
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 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 32,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 68,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 15,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 28,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 13,
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 "velocity_score": 0,
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 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 32,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 68,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 31,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 11,
 "net_sentiment_score": 20,
 "velocity_score": 5,
 "acceleration_score": 5,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 43,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 30,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": -7,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 34,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 40,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 55,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 15,
 "net_sentiment_score": 40,
 "velocity_score": 22,
 "acceleration_score": 24,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": true,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T23:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 15,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 28,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 13,
 "net_sentiment_score": 15,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 32,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 68,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T23:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 15,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 28,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 13,
 "net_sentiment_score": 15,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 32,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 68,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T00:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 15,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 28,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 13,
 "net_sentiment_score": 15,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 32,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 68,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T00:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 15,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 28,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 13,
 "net_sentiment_score": 15,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 32,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 68,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T01:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 15,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 28,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 13,
 "net_sentiment_score": 15,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 32,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 68,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T01:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 15,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 28,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 13,
 "net_sentiment_score": 15,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 32,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 68,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T02:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 30,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 41,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T02:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 31,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 11,
 "net_sentiment_score": 20,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 34,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T03:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 30,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": -4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 34,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T03:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 30,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 34,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T04:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 32,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 47,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 15,
 "net_sentiment_score": 32,
 "velocity_score": 14,
 "acceleration_score": 14,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 57,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T04:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 40,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 55,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 15,
 "net_sentiment_score": 40,
 "velocity_score": 8,
 "acceleration_score": -6,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 40,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": -5,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 22,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 12,
 "cross_domain_merges": 2,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 12,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "No v2 trend_physics / trend_state_memory fields were provided; used proxy cues (recency proxies, narrative heat, and qualitative driver direction) for momentum/reversal heuristics.",
 "VIP outliers and risk anomalies were treated as fragility modifiers due to single-source/echo-risk characteristics."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}