Snapshot

  • subject_area: Coffee futures (KC)
  • target_market_code: coffee
  • ticker: coffee
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: stale_context_overhang
  • generated_at: 2026-03-16T06:00:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
coffee B-coffee-001 Near-term coffee futures pricing remains biased upward as shipping/logistics disruption risk and trade-route uncertainty elevate effective supply/freight costs. 62 up accelerating 24h false 58
coffee B-coffee-002 Demand-side narratives (retail expansion / café consumption dynamics) provide incremental support to coffee futures over the next 6–24 hours, but are secondary to supply-chain signals. 55 up stable 24h false 58
coffee B-coffee-003 Downside / mean-reversion risk rises if logistics constraints ease or if origin-side adaptation narratives (Brazil) gain traction, reducing perceived supply tightness. 38 down fading 24h false 58

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{ "workflow_6B_CIS_output": { "snapshot_id": "6B-coffee-20260316T060000Z", "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-16T06:00:00Z", "primary_asset_focus": { "name": "Coffee futures (KC)", "market_code": "coffee" }, "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish", "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 62, "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 58, "commodity_registry": [ "crude_oil", "gold", "natural_gas", "copper", "silver", "wheat", "corn", "uranium", "lithium", "coffee" ], "target_market_code": "coffee", "target_resolution_source": "explicit", "scope_mode": "single_market", "analyzed_markets": [ "coffee" ], "regime_state": "tightening", "beliefs": [ { "belief_id": "B-coffee-001", "market": "coffee", "claim": "Near-term coffee futures pricing remains biased upward as shipping/logistics disruption risk and trade-route uncertainty elevate effective supply/freight costs.", "probability_pct": 62, "direction": "up", "velocity": "accelerating", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "shipping_freight", "trade_disruption", "origin_supply_risk" ], "contradicted_by": [ "B-coffee-003" ] }, { "belief_id": "B-coffee-002", "market": "coffee", "claim": "Demand-side narratives (retail expansion / caf\u00e9 consumption dynamics) provide incremental support to coffee futures over the next 6\u201324 hours, but are secondary to supply-chain signals.", "probability_pct": 55, "direction": "up", "velocity": "stable", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "consumption_dynamics", "retail_expansion", "consumer_preferences" ], "contradicted_by": [ "B-coffee-003" ] }, { "belief_id": "B-coffee-003", "market": "coffee", "claim": "Downside / mean-reversion risk rises if logistics constraints ease or if origin-side adaptation narratives (Brazil) gain traction, reducing perceived supply tightness.", "probability_pct": 38, "direction": "down", "velocity": "fading", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "origin_supply_normalisation", "adaptation_tech", "logistics_normalisation" ], "contradicted_by": [ "B-coffee-001", "B-coffee-002" ] } ], "market_state_table": [ { "market": "coffee", "directional_state": "bullish", "momentum_state": "strengthening", "reversal_risk": "medium", "state_change": "new_bullish", "conviction_score_0_100": 62, "freshness_confidence": "medium", "catalyst_type": "background_persistent", "stale_suppression_applied": false, "thesis_kill_switch": false, "late_breaking_alert": false, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "supporting_belief_ids": [ "B-coffee-001", "B-coffee-002" ] } ], "risk_flags": [ "stale_context_overhang", "geopolitical_trade_disruption_sensitivity", "freight_cost_pass_through_uncertainty", "narrative_whipsaw_risk_medium" ], "candidate_actions": [ { "market": "coffee", "confidence": "medium", "trigger_condition": "If the logistics/trade-disruption narrative continues to print with fresh reinforcement over the next 6\u201312h while no strong offsetting origin-supply easing signal appears.", "action": "watch_long_bias" }, { "market": "coffee", "confidence": "high", "trigger_condition": "If conflicting headlines increase (supply easing vs disruption) or freight narrative swings, expect higher intraday volatility.", "action": "volatility_watch" }, { "market": "coffee", "confidence": "medium", "trigger_condition": "If fresh, high-authority signals indicate disruption easing (ports/routes normalising) within a 0\u20136h window.", "action": "reversal_watch" }, { "market": "coffee", "confidence": "low", "trigger_condition": "If evidence density drops materially (few fresh updates) while conviction remains elevated, reduce reliance on the thesis until refreshed.", "action": "hard_de_risk_watch" } ], "paper_trade_signal_pack": { "bullish_markets": [ "coffee" ], "bearish_markets": [], "neutral_mixed_markets": [], "high_reversal_risk_markets": [] }, "signal_timeseries": { "resolution": "1h", "lookback_hours": 24, "bucket_timezone": "UTC", "buckets": [ { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T06:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T07:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 28, "bullish_pressure_score": 72.4, "bearish_pressure_score": 24.4, "net_sentiment_score": 28, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.26, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 6, "conviction_score_0_100": 52, "fragility_score_0_100": 65, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T07:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T08:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 28, "bullish_pressure_score": 72.4, "bearish_pressure_score": 24.4, "net_sentiment_score": 28, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.26, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 6, "conviction_score_0_100": 52, "fragility_score_0_100": 65, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T08:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T09:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 29, "bullish_pressure_score": 73.2, "bearish_pressure_score": 24.2, "net_sentiment_score": 29, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.26, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 6, "conviction_score_0_100": 53, "fragility_score_0_100": 65, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T09:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T10:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 30, "bullish_pressure_score": 74.0, "bearish_pressure_score": 24.0, "net_sentiment_score": 30, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.26, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 6, "conviction_score_0_100": 54, "fragility_score_0_100": 64, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T10:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T11:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 30, "bullish_pressure_score": 74.0, "bearish_pressure_score": 24.0, "net_sentiment_score": 30, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.26, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 6, "conviction_score_0_100": 54, "fragility_score_0_100": 64, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T11:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T12:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 31, "bullish_pressure_score": 74.8, "bearish_pressure_score": 23.8, "net_sentiment_score": 31, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.26, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 6, "conviction_score_0_100": 55, "fragility_score_0_100": 64, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T12:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T13:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 31, "bullish_pressure_score": 74.8, "bearish_pressure_score": 23.8, "net_sentiment_score": 31, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.26, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 6, "conviction_score_0_100": 55, "fragility_score_0_100": 64, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T13:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T14:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 32, "bullish_pressure_score": 75.6, "bearish_pressure_score": 23.6, "net_sentiment_score": 32, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.26, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 6, "conviction_score_0_100": 56, "fragility_score_0_100": 63, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T14:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T15:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 32, "bullish_pressure_score": 75.6, "bearish_pressure_score": 23.6, "net_sentiment_score": 32, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.26, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 6, "conviction_score_0_100": 56, "fragility_score_0_100": 63, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T15:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T16:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 33, "bullish_pressure_score": 76.4, "bearish_pressure_score": 23.4, "net_sentiment_score": 33, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.26, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 6, "conviction_score_0_100": 56, "fragility_score_0_100": 63, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T16:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T17:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 33, "bullish_pressure_score": 76.4, "bearish_pressure_score": 23.4, "net_sentiment_score": 33, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.26, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 6, "conviction_score_0_100": 56, "fragility_score_0_100": 63, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T17:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T18:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 34, "bullish_pressure_score": 77.2, "bearish_pressure_score": 23.2, "net_sentiment_score": 34, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.26, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 6, "conviction_score_0_100": 57, "fragility_score_0_100": 62, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T18:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T19:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 34, "bullish_pressure_score": 77.2, "bearish_pressure_score": 23.2, "net_sentiment_score": 34, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.26, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 6, "conviction_score_0_100": 57, "fragility_score_0_100": 62, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T19:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T20:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 35, "bullish_pressure_score": 78.0, "bearish_pressure_score": 23.0, "net_sentiment_score": 35, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.27, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 6, "conviction_score_0_100": 58, "fragility_score_0_100": 62, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T20:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T21:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 35, "bullish_pressure_score": 78.0, "bearish_pressure_score": 23.0, "net_sentiment_score": 35, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.27, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 6, "conviction_score_0_100": 58, "fragility_score_0_100": 62, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T21:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T22:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 36, "bullish_pressure_score": 78.8, "bearish_pressure_score": 22.8, "net_sentiment_score": 36, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.27, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 6, "conviction_score_0_100": 59, "fragility_score_0_100": 61, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T22:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T23:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 36, "bullish_pressure_score": 78.8, "bearish_pressure_score": 22.8, "net_sentiment_score": 36, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.27, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 6, "conviction_score_0_100": 59, "fragility_score_0_100": 61, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T23:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T00:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 37, "bullish_pressure_score": 79.6, "bearish_pressure_score": 22.6, "net_sentiment_score": 37, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.27, "fresh_evidence_count": 4, "stale_evidence_count": 6, "conviction_score_0_100": 60, "fragility_score_0_100": 61, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T00:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T01:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 38, "bullish_pressure_score": 80.4, "bearish_pressure_score": 22.4, "net_sentiment_score": 38, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.28, "fresh_evidence_count": 4, "stale_evidence_count": 5, "conviction_score_0_100": 60, "fragility_score_0_100": 60, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T01:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T02:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 39, "bullish_pressure_score": 81.2, "bearish_pressure_score": 22.2, "net_sentiment_score": 39, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.28, "fresh_evidence_count": 4, "stale_evidence_count": 5, "conviction_score_0_100": 61, "fragility_score_0_100": 60, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T02:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T03:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 40, "bullish_pressure_score": 82.0, "bearish_pressure_score": 22.0, "net_sentiment_score": 40, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.28, "fresh_evidence_count": 4, "stale_evidence_count": 5, "conviction_score_0_100": 61, "fragility_score_0_100": 59, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T03:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T04:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 41, "bullish_pressure_score": 82.8, "bearish_pressure_score": 21.8, "net_sentiment_score": 41, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.29, "fresh_evidence_count": 4, "stale_evidence_count": 5, "conviction_score_0_100": 62, "fragility_score_0_100": 59, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T04:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T05:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 42, "bullish_pressure_score": 83.6, "bearish_pressure_score": 21.6, "net_sentiment_score": 42, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.29, "fresh_evidence_count": 4, "stale_evidence_count": 5, "conviction_score_0_100": 62, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T05:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T06:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 43, "bullish_pressure_score": 84.4, "bearish_pressure_score": 21.4, "net_sentiment_score": 43, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.3, "fresh_evidence_count": 4, "stale_evidence_count": 5, "conviction_score_0_100": 63, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "dominant_state": "bullish" } ] }, "recent_half_hour_overlay": { "enabled": false, "resolution": "30m", "lookback_hours": 6, "buckets": [] }, "summary": { "timeseries_peak_bullish": 43, "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0, "latest_inflection_direction": "up", "latest_inflection_strength": 15, "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish" } }, "diagnostics": { "trends_seen": 11, "trends_admitted": 9, "cross_domain_merges": 2, "stale_suppression_count": 0, "reversal_flags_count": 1, "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0, "kill_switch_markets_count": 0, "timeseries_bucket_count": 24, "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0, "target_market_custom": false, "target_market_unresolved": false, "input_gate_degraded": false, "notes": [ "Target market resolved explicitly as coffee.", "No workflow5A physics/trend_state_memory provided; used heuristic recency weighting from provided timestamps and evidence recency proxies.", "Contradictions feed empty; reversal risk inferred from mixed driver directions (disruption vs normalisation).", "State-change marked new_bullish due to unavailable prior state snapshot in inputs." ] }, "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B" }