Snapshot
- subject_area: Coffee futures
- target_market_code: coffee
- ticker:
- regime_state: unstable
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: geopolitical_shipping_volatility (high)
- generated_at: 2026-03-16T22:00:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim (trimmed) | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| coffee | B-coffee-001 | Over the next 24h, coffee futures face net upward price pressure from supply-chain/shipping disruption risk and higher freight/cost uncertainty. | 62 | up | accelerating | 24h | false | 55 |
| coffee | B-coffee-002 | Coffee futures direction is vulnerable to quick sentiment flips because supportive supply-risk signals coexist with mixed demand/consumer preference signals and uneven source authority mix. | 58 | mixed | stable | 24h | false | 55 |
| coffee | B-coffee-003 | Over the next 6h, coffee futures are more likely to trade with an upward bias than a downward bias as late-day shipping disruption updates add marginal risk premium. | 59 | up | accelerating | 6h | false | 55 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "cis6b_coffee_20260316T220000Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-16T22:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Coffee futures",
"market_code": "coffee"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 67,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "coffee",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"coffee"
],
"regime_state": "unstable",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-coffee-001",
"market": "coffee",
"claim": "Over the next 24h, coffee futures face net upward price pressure from supply-chain/shipping disruption risk and higher freight/cost uncertainty.",
"probability_pct": 62,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"shipping_freight: Strait of Hormuz / Iran / carrier disruption narratives (freight risk premia)",
"origin_supply: Brazil-linked climate/crop risk framing (supply uncertainty)",
"crop_conditions: climate impact discourse increasing risk premia"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-coffee-002"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-coffee-002",
"market": "coffee",
"claim": "Coffee futures direction is vulnerable to quick sentiment flips because supportive supply-risk signals coexist with mixed demand/consumer preference signals and uneven source authority mix.",
"probability_pct": 58,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"consumer preferences/demand narratives (mixed/neutral demand impulse)",
"high share of lower-tier domains in several evidence bundles (confidence fragility)",
"macro/policy noise bleeding into commodities logistics narratives"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-coffee-001"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-coffee-003",
"market": "coffee",
"claim": "Over the next 6h, coffee futures are more likely to trade with an upward bias than a downward bias as late-day shipping disruption updates add marginal risk premium.",
"probability_pct": 59,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"shipping_freight: late-day disruption updates (fresh reinforcement)",
"risk premia expansion in soft commodities when logistics uncertainty rises"
],
"contradicted_by": []
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "coffee",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"conviction_score_0_100": 67,
"freshness_confidence": "medium",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-coffee-001",
"B-coffee-003"
]
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF-coffee-001",
"market": "coffee",
"label": "geopolitical_shipping_volatility",
"severity": "high",
"details": "Shipping/freight disruption narratives (Hormuz/Iran/carriers) can rapidly widen intraday ranges even when the net directional bias is up."
},
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF-coffee-002",
"market": "coffee",
"label": "authority_mix_skew_low_tier",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "Several supporting bundles show a high low-authority share; conviction is capped and fragility elevated versus a clean Tier-A-only stack."
},
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF-coffee-003",
"market": "coffee",
"label": "contradiction_moderate_mixed_drivers",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "Supply/freight risks support higher prices, while demand/consumer preference signals are not uniformly supportive, creating medium reversal risk."
},
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF-coffee-004",
"market": "coffee",
"label": "prior_state_unknown_assumption",
"severity": "low",
"details": "No prior market_state_table/trend_state_memory provided; state_change computed versus an assumed neutral baseline."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"market": "coffee",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If fresh shipping disruption evidence persists into the next cycle (<=24h) without credible de-escalation signals, keep an upward-bias watch."
},
{
"action": "volatility_watch",
"market": "coffee",
"confidence": "high",
"trigger_condition": "If additional geopolitics/shipping headlines arrive within <=6h, expect volatility expansion regardless of direction."
},
{
"action": "reversal_watch",
"market": "coffee",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If a credible, fresh (<=2h) signal indicates easing freight constraints or improved crop outlook, treat current bullish bias as at risk of reversal/neutralisation."
},
{
"action": "stay_flat",
"market": "coffee",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "If fresh evidence flow drops and signals revert to background-only (>72h) with no reinforcement, directional edge degrades."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"coffee"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 55,
"bearish_pressure_score": 45,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.44,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 38,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T00:00:00Z",
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"bullish_pressure_score": 55,
"bearish_pressure_score": 45,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.44,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 38,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T01:00:00Z",
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"bullish_pressure_score": 56,
"bearish_pressure_score": 45,
"net_sentiment_score": 11,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.43,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 39,
"fragility_score_0_100": 69,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T02:00:00Z",
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"bullish_pressure_score": 56,
"bearish_pressure_score": 45,
"net_sentiment_score": 11,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.43,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 39,
"fragility_score_0_100": 69,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T03:00:00Z",
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"bullish_pressure_score": 56,
"bearish_pressure_score": 44,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
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"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 40,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T04:00:00Z",
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"bearish_pressure_score": 44,
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"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.43,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 40,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T04:00:00Z",
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"bearish_pressure_score": 44,
"net_sentiment_score": 13,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.42,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 41,
"fragility_score_0_100": 67,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
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"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T06:00:00Z",
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"bullish_pressure_score": 57,
"bearish_pressure_score": 43,
"net_sentiment_score": 14,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.42,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 42,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T07:00:00Z",
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"bearish_pressure_score": 43,
"net_sentiment_score": 15,
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"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.41,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
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"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
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"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T08:00:00Z",
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"bullish_pressure_score": 61,
"bearish_pressure_score": 39,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 7,
"acceleration_score": 6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.49,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 61,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 59,
"bearish_pressure_score": 41,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": -4,
"acceleration_score": -11,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.46,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 47,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 17,
"bullish_pressure_score": 59,
"bearish_pressure_score": 42,
"net_sentiment_score": 17,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.45,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T11:00:00Z",
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"bullish_pressure_score": 58,
"bearish_pressure_score": 42,
"net_sentiment_score": 16,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.45,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 16,
"bullish_pressure_score": 58,
"bearish_pressure_score": 42,
"net_sentiment_score": 16,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.44,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 17,
"bullish_pressure_score": 59,
"bearish_pressure_score": 42,
"net_sentiment_score": 17,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.44,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 59,
"bearish_pressure_score": 41,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.43,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 47,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 19,
"bullish_pressure_score": 60,
"bearish_pressure_score": 40,
"net_sentiment_score": 19,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.42,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 60,
"bearish_pressure_score": 40,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.41,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 49,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 27,
"bullish_pressure_score": 64,
"bearish_pressure_score": 37,
"net_sentiment_score": 27,
"velocity_score": 7,
"acceleration_score": 6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.43,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 67,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 25,
"bullish_pressure_score": 63,
"bearish_pressure_score": 38,
"net_sentiment_score": 25,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -9,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.43,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 65,
"bearish_pressure_score": 35,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 5,
"acceleration_score": 7,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.41,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 71,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 64,
"bearish_pressure_score": 36,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -7,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.4,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 32,
"bullish_pressure_score": 66,
"bearish_pressure_score": 34,
"net_sentiment_score": 32,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.39,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 36,
"bullish_pressure_score": 68,
"bearish_pressure_score": 32,
"net_sentiment_score": 36,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.37,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 68,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 36,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 4,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"trends_seen": 10,
"trends_admitted": 10,
"cross_domain_merges": 3,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"No explicit trend_physics/trend_state_memory provided; used recency proxies (evidence newest timestamps, temporal_profile peaks) and mixed-driver balance to approximate momentum/reversal risk.",
"No contradictions array supplied; contradiction_ratio inferred from mixed driver categories rather than explicit counter-signal objects."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}