Snapshot

  • subject_area: Coffee futures
  • target_market_code: coffee
  • ticker:
  • regime_state: unstable
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: geopolitical_shipping_volatility (high)
  • generated_at: 2026-03-16T22:00:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim (trimmed) prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
coffee B-coffee-001 Over the next 24h, coffee futures face net upward price pressure from supply-chain/shipping disruption risk and higher freight/cost uncertainty. 62 up accelerating 24h false 55
coffee B-coffee-002 Coffee futures direction is vulnerable to quick sentiment flips because supportive supply-risk signals coexist with mixed demand/consumer preference signals and uneven source authority mix. 58 mixed stable 24h false 55
coffee B-coffee-003 Over the next 6h, coffee futures are more likely to trade with an upward bias than a downward bias as late-day shipping disruption updates add marginal risk premium. 59 up accelerating 6h false 55

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "cis6b_coffee_20260316T220000Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-16T22:00:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Coffee futures",
 "market_code": "coffee"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 67,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "coffee",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "coffee"
 ],
 "regime_state": "unstable",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-coffee-001",
 "market": "coffee",
 "claim": "Over the next 24h, coffee futures face net upward price pressure from supply-chain/shipping disruption risk and higher freight/cost uncertainty.",
 "probability_pct": 62,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "shipping_freight: Strait of Hormuz / Iran / carrier disruption narratives (freight risk premia)",
 "origin_supply: Brazil-linked climate/crop risk framing (supply uncertainty)",
 "crop_conditions: climate impact discourse increasing risk premia"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-coffee-002"
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-coffee-002",
 "market": "coffee",
 "claim": "Coffee futures direction is vulnerable to quick sentiment flips because supportive supply-risk signals coexist with mixed demand/consumer preference signals and uneven source authority mix.",
 "probability_pct": 58,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "consumer preferences/demand narratives (mixed/neutral demand impulse)",
 "high share of lower-tier domains in several evidence bundles (confidence fragility)",
 "macro/policy noise bleeding into commodities logistics narratives"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-coffee-001"
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-coffee-003",
 "market": "coffee",
 "claim": "Over the next 6h, coffee futures are more likely to trade with an upward bias than a downward bias as late-day shipping disruption updates add marginal risk premium.",
 "probability_pct": 59,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "shipping_freight: late-day disruption updates (fresh reinforcement)",
 "risk premia expansion in soft commodities when logistics uncertainty rises"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": []
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "new_bullish",
 "conviction_score_0_100": 67,
 "freshness_confidence": "medium",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-coffee-001",
 "B-coffee-003"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-coffee-001",
 "market": "coffee",
 "label": "geopolitical_shipping_volatility",
 "severity": "high",
 "details": "Shipping/freight disruption narratives (Hormuz/Iran/carriers) can rapidly widen intraday ranges even when the net directional bias is up."
 },
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-coffee-002",
 "market": "coffee",
 "label": "authority_mix_skew_low_tier",
 "severity": "medium",
 "details": "Several supporting bundles show a high low-authority share; conviction is capped and fragility elevated versus a clean Tier-A-only stack."
 },
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-coffee-003",
 "market": "coffee",
 "label": "contradiction_moderate_mixed_drivers",
 "severity": "medium",
 "details": "Supply/freight risks support higher prices, while demand/consumer preference signals are not uniformly supportive, creating medium reversal risk."
 },
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-coffee-004",
 "market": "coffee",
 "label": "prior_state_unknown_assumption",
 "severity": "low",
 "details": "No prior market_state_table/trend_state_memory provided; state_change computed versus an assumed neutral baseline."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "market": "coffee",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If fresh shipping disruption evidence persists into the next cycle (<=24h) without credible de-escalation signals, keep an upward-bias watch."
 },
 {
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "market": "coffee",
 "confidence": "high",
 "trigger_condition": "If additional geopolitics/shipping headlines arrive within <=6h, expect volatility expansion regardless of direction."
 },
 {
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "market": "coffee",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If a credible, fresh (<=2h) signal indicates easing freight constraints or improved crop outlook, treat current bullish bias as at risk of reversal/neutralisation."
 },
 {
 "action": "stay_flat",
 "market": "coffee",
 "confidence": "low",
 "trigger_condition": "If fresh evidence flow drops and signals revert to background-only (>72h) with no reinforcement, directional edge degrades."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "coffee"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 55,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 45,
 "net_sentiment_score": 10,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.44,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 38,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 70,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 55,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 45,
 "net_sentiment_score": 10,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.44,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 38,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 70,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 11,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 56,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 45,
 "net_sentiment_score": 11,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.43,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 39,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 69,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 11,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 56,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 45,
 "net_sentiment_score": 11,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.43,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 39,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 69,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 56,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 44,
 "net_sentiment_score": 12,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.43,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 40,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 68,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 56,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 44,
 "net_sentiment_score": 12,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.43,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 40,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 68,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 13,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 57,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 44,
 "net_sentiment_score": 13,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.42,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 41,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 67,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 14,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 57,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 43,
 "net_sentiment_score": 14,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.42,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 42,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 15,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 58,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 43,
 "net_sentiment_score": 15,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.41,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 43,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 65,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 61,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 39,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": 7,
 "acceleration_score": 6,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.49,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 61,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 59,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 41,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": -4,
 "acceleration_score": -11,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.46,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 47,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 17,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 59,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 42,
 "net_sentiment_score": 17,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.45,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 46,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 65,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 16,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 58,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 42,
 "net_sentiment_score": 16,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.45,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 45,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 16,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 58,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 42,
 "net_sentiment_score": 16,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.44,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 45,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 17,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 59,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 42,
 "net_sentiment_score": 17,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.44,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 46,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 65,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 59,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 41,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.43,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 47,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 19,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 60,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 40,
 "net_sentiment_score": 19,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.42,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 48,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 60,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 40,
 "net_sentiment_score": 20,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.41,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 49,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 27,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 64,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 37,
 "net_sentiment_score": 27,
 "velocity_score": 7,
 "acceleration_score": 6,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.43,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 67,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 25,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 63,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 38,
 "net_sentiment_score": 25,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": -9,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.43,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 55,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 59,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 65,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 35,
 "net_sentiment_score": 30,
 "velocity_score": 5,
 "acceleration_score": 7,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.41,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 71,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 28,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 64,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 36,
 "net_sentiment_score": 28,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": -7,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.4,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 32,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 66,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 34,
 "net_sentiment_score": 32,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 6,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.39,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 63,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 36,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 68,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 32,
 "net_sentiment_score": 36,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.37,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 68,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 36,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 4,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "trends_seen": 10,
 "trends_admitted": 10,
 "cross_domain_merges": 3,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "No explicit trend_physics/trend_state_memory provided; used recency proxies (evidence newest timestamps, temporal_profile peaks) and mixed-driver balance to approximate momentum/reversal risk.",
 "No contradictions array supplied; contradiction_ratio inferred from mixed driver categories rather than explicit counter-signal objects."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}