Snapshot
- subject_area: Coffee futures
- target_market_code: coffee
- ticker: ""
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: High share of lower-authority amplification in admitted narratives
- generated_at: 2026-03-16T13:00:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market |
belief_id |
claim |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| coffee |
B-coffee-001 |
Near-term coffee futures price bias is upward as production-cost pressure and origin/logistics disruption risk tighten effective supply. |
62 |
up |
accelerating |
6h |
false |
52 |
| coffee |
B-coffee-002 |
Demand/consumption narrative remains supportive, adding a modest upward bias over the next 24h (demand-side support rather than a one-off spike). |
58 |
up |
stable |
24h |
false |
52 |
| coffee |
B-coffee-003 |
Reversal risk is elevated to medium: if the recent tightening narrative fails to get additional fresh confirmation, bullish pressure can fade into mixed/range behaviour within 24h. |
44 |
mixed |
fading |
24h |
false |
52 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-20260316-coffee-001",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-16T13:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Coffee futures",
"market_code": "coffee"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "coffee",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"coffee"
],
"regime_state": "tightening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-coffee-001",
"market": "coffee",
"claim": "Near-term coffee futures price bias is upward as production-cost pressure and origin/logistics disruption risk tighten effective supply.",
"probability_pct": 62,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"crop_conditions",
"origin_supply",
"shipping_freight"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"No strong, fresh counter-signal (e.g., improving origin weather/harvest flow or easing freight disruption) present in admitted set."
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-coffee-002",
"market": "coffee",
"claim": "Demand/consumption narrative remains supportive, adding a modest upward bias over the next 24h (demand-side support rather than a one-off spike).",
"probability_pct": 58,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"consumer_demand",
"pricing_pass_through"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"If demand headlines fade while supply risk persists only as background narrative, upside follow-through may weaken."
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-coffee-003",
"market": "coffee",
"claim": "Reversal risk is elevated to medium: if the recent tightening narrative fails to get additional fresh confirmation, bullish pressure can fade into mixed/range behaviour within 24h.",
"probability_pct": 44,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"data_sparsity_in_price-linked_evidence",
"headline_decay_risk",
"mixed_authority_sources"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"A new, high-authority supply shock confirmation would reduce reversal risk and push conviction higher."
]
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "coffee",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"freshness_confidence": "medium",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-coffee-001",
"B-coffee-002"
]
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF-coffee-001",
"type": "data_quality",
"severity": "medium",
"label": "High share of lower-authority amplification in admitted narratives",
"note": "Directional inference leans on broad story reinforcement rather than single, decisive, high-authority price-linked datapoints."
},
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF-coffee-002",
"type": "narrative_whipsaw",
"severity": "medium",
"label": "Headline-driven logistics/geopolitical flow can reverse quickly",
"note": "Freight disruption narratives can de-escalate abruptly, reducing bullish pressure."
},
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF-coffee-003",
"type": "recency_flip",
"severity": "low",
"label": "Momentum sensitive to new updates in the next 6\u201312 hours",
"note": "If no additional fresh confirmations appear, strengthening momentum can revert to stable/weakening."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "coffee",
"action_label": "watch_long_bias",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If additional fresh (<=24h) supply/freight tightening confirmations appear without equally fresh easing signals."
},
{
"market": "coffee",
"action_label": "volatility_watch",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If logistics/geopolitical headlines intensify or contradict each other inside a short window (contradiction ratio rising)."
},
{
"market": "coffee",
"action_label": "reversal_watch",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If a fresh, high-authority easing signal (improved origin flow/weather or de-escalation in shipping disruption) arrives within the next 6\u201324h."
},
{
"market": "coffee",
"action_label": "stay_flat",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "If directional score compresses toward neutral (|score| < 20) while fragility rises above 65."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"coffee"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 40,
"bearish_pressure_score": 18,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 23,
"bullish_pressure_score": 41,
"bearish_pressure_score": 18,
"net_sentiment_score": 23,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 42,
"bearish_pressure_score": 18,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 42,
"bearish_pressure_score": 18,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 25,
"bullish_pressure_score": 43,
"bearish_pressure_score": 18,
"net_sentiment_score": 25,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 26,
"bullish_pressure_score": 44,
"bearish_pressure_score": 18,
"net_sentiment_score": 26,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 53,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 26,
"bullish_pressure_score": 44,
"bearish_pressure_score": 18,
"net_sentiment_score": 26,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 53,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 27,
"bullish_pressure_score": 45,
"bearish_pressure_score": 18,
"net_sentiment_score": 27,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 47,
"fragility_score_0_100": 53,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 46,
"bearish_pressure_score": 18,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 29,
"bullish_pressure_score": 47,
"bearish_pressure_score": 18,
"net_sentiment_score": 29,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 49,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 48,
"bearish_pressure_score": 18,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 31,
"bullish_pressure_score": 49,
"bearish_pressure_score": 18,
"net_sentiment_score": 31,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 51,
"fragility_score_0_100": 51,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 31,
"bullish_pressure_score": 49,
"bearish_pressure_score": 18,
"net_sentiment_score": 31,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 51,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 32,
"bullish_pressure_score": 50,
"bearish_pressure_score": 18,
"net_sentiment_score": 32,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 51,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 33,
"bullish_pressure_score": 51,
"bearish_pressure_score": 18,
"net_sentiment_score": 33,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 53,
"fragility_score_0_100": 51,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 34,
"bullish_pressure_score": 52,
"bearish_pressure_score": 18,
"net_sentiment_score": 34,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 50,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 36,
"bullish_pressure_score": 54,
"bearish_pressure_score": 18,
"net_sentiment_score": 36,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 57,
"fragility_score_0_100": 50,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 40,
"bullish_pressure_score": 58,
"bearish_pressure_score": 18,
"net_sentiment_score": 40,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 61,
"fragility_score_0_100": 49,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 52,
"bullish_pressure_score": 70,
"bearish_pressure_score": 18,
"net_sentiment_score": 52,
"velocity_score": 12,
"acceleration_score": 8,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"fragility_score_0_100": 50,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 48,
"bullish_pressure_score": 66,
"bearish_pressure_score": 18,
"net_sentiment_score": 48,
"velocity_score": -4,
"acceleration_score": -16,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 46,
"bullish_pressure_score": 64,
"bearish_pressure_score": 18,
"net_sentiment_score": 46,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 45,
"bullish_pressure_score": 63,
"bearish_pressure_score": 18,
"net_sentiment_score": 45,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 61,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 44,
"bullish_pressure_score": 62,
"bearish_pressure_score": 18,
"net_sentiment_score": 44,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 53,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 43,
"bullish_pressure_score": 61,
"bearish_pressure_score": 18,
"net_sentiment_score": 43,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 59,
"fragility_score_0_100": 53,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 52,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 22,
"latest_inflection_direction": "down",
"latest_inflection_strength": 4,
"signal_regime": "weakening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 10,
"cross_domain_merges": 3,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Target market resolved explicitly from flight_plan.target_market_code=coffee.",
"No prior market_state_table or trend_state_memory provided; state_change computed using an assumed neutral prior baseline."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}