Snapshot
- subject_area: Uranium futures
- target_market_code: uranium
- ticker: uranium
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: RF-DATA-SPARSITY-24H (high)
- generated_at: 2026-03-15 12:00 UTC
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim (trimmed) | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| uranium | B-UR-24H-01 | Over the next 24h, uranium futures bias remains upward on persistent nuclear-policy support plus structural supply-risk narratives, but near-term confirmation is thin. | 58 | up | stable | 24h | false | 72 |
| uranium | B-UR-6H-01 | Over the next 6h, direction is likely mixed-to-slightly-up because the strongest supports are background/persistent rather than fresh catalysts. | 52 | mixed | fading | 6h | false | 72 |
| uranium | B-UR-MED-01 | Narrative regime suggests supply-side tightening risk remains the dominant medium-term framing (contracting/supply-chain/geopolitical), which tends to support higher uranium prices when re-validated by fresh newsflow. | 62 | up | stable | 30d | false | 72 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "CIS-uranium-20260315T120000Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-15T12:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Uranium futures",
"market_code": "uranium"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 57,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 72,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "uranium",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"uranium"
],
"regime_state": "tightening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-UR-24H-01",
"market": "uranium",
"claim": "Over the next 24h, uranium futures bias remains upward on persistent nuclear-policy support plus structural supply-risk narratives, but near-term confirmation is thin.",
"probability_pct": 58,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"policy_nuclear",
"reactor_demand",
"supply_contracting",
"geopolitical_supply_risk"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"RF-DATA-SPARSITY-24H",
"RF-STALE-OVERHANG"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-UR-6H-01",
"market": "uranium",
"claim": "Over the next 6h, direction is likely mixed-to-slightly-up because the strongest supports are background/persistent rather than fresh catalysts.",
"probability_pct": 52,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"policy_nuclear",
"inventory",
"geopolitical_supply_risk"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"RF-DATA-SPARSITY-24H"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-UR-MED-01",
"market": "uranium",
"claim": "Narrative regime suggests supply-side tightening risk remains the dominant medium-term framing (contracting/supply-chain/geopolitical), which tends to support higher uranium prices when re-validated by fresh newsflow.",
"probability_pct": 62,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "30d",
"drivers": [
"supply_contracting",
"geopolitical_supply_risk",
"reactor_demand"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"RF-LOW-AUTHORITY-TAIL"
]
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "uranium",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "weakening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"conviction_score_0_100": 57,
"freshness_confidence": "low",
"catalyst_type": "background_persistent",
"stale_suppression_applied": true,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 72,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-UR-24H-01",
"B-UR-6H-01",
"B-UR-MED-01"
]
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "RF-STALE-OVERHANG",
"severity": "medium",
"market": "uranium",
"detail": "Directional lean is largely supported by slow-burn/persistent policy & supply-risk narratives; limited clearly-time-stamped fresh directional catalysts inside the last 24h signal set."
},
{
"flag": "RF-DATA-SPARSITY-24H",
"severity": "high",
"market": "uranium",
"detail": "Last-24h bucketed evidence is sparse in the provided signal objects, reducing short-horizon confidence and increasing whipsaw risk."
},
{
"flag": "RF-LOW-AUTHORITY-TAIL",
"severity": "medium",
"market": "uranium",
"detail": "A portion of supporting/related items are single-source VIP/outlier style signals (low corroboration), which increases fragility."
},
{
"flag": "RF-NARRATIVE-WHIPSAW",
"severity": "medium",
"market": "uranium",
"detail": "Mixed policy/regulatory positives versus intermittent risk/anomaly items can shift short-horizon tone quickly without changing the medium-term thesis."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "uranium",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If fresh high-authority policy/supply disruption confirmation appears (<=24h) without a contradiction spike, maintain a long-bias watch posture.",
"label": "watch_long_bias"
},
{
"market": "uranium",
"confidence": "high",
"trigger_condition": "If contradiction ratio rises materially on fresh items (<=6h) or a clear opposing catalyst appears, treat as a reversal-watch regime.",
"label": "reversal_watch"
},
{
"market": "uranium",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If intraday evidence remains sparse while narrative remains supportive, expect chop/volatility around headlines rather than clean trend.",
"label": "volatility_watch"
},
{
"market": "uranium",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "If no fresh confirmation arrives and momentum continues to fade, default to flat/watch until new catalysts appear.",
"label": "stay_flat"
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"uranium"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 35,
"bearish_pressure_score": 25,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 35,
"fragility_score_0_100": 72,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 11,
"bullish_pressure_score": 36,
"bearish_pressure_score": 25,
"net_sentiment_score": 11,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 36,
"fragility_score_0_100": 72,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 36,
"bearish_pressure_score": 24,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.29,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 36,
"fragility_score_0_100": 71,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 36,
"bearish_pressure_score": 24,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.29,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 36,
"fragility_score_0_100": 71,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 11,
"bullish_pressure_score": 36,
"bearish_pressure_score": 25,
"net_sentiment_score": 11,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 36,
"fragility_score_0_100": 72,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 36,
"bearish_pressure_score": 24,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 41,
"fragility_score_0_100": 69,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 39,
"bearish_pressure_score": 21,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 6,
"acceleration_score": 5,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 15,
"bullish_pressure_score": 38,
"bearish_pressure_score": 23,
"net_sentiment_score": 15,
"velocity_score": -3,
"acceleration_score": -9,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.31,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 38,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 13,
"bullish_pressure_score": 37,
"bearish_pressure_score": 24,
"net_sentiment_score": 13,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.31,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 37,
"fragility_score_0_100": 71,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 36,
"bearish_pressure_score": 24,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 36,
"fragility_score_0_100": 72,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 36,
"bearish_pressure_score": 24,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 36,
"fragility_score_0_100": 72,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 11,
"bullish_pressure_score": 36,
"bearish_pressure_score": 25,
"net_sentiment_score": 11,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.31,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 36,
"fragility_score_0_100": 72,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 35,
"bearish_pressure_score": 25,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.32,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 35,
"fragility_score_0_100": 73,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 9,
"bullish_pressure_score": 35,
"bearish_pressure_score": 26,
"net_sentiment_score": 9,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.32,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 34,
"fragility_score_0_100": 73,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 34,
"bearish_pressure_score": 26,
"net_sentiment_score": 8,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.33,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 34,
"fragility_score_0_100": 74,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -5,
"bullish_pressure_score": 28,
"bearish_pressure_score": 33,
"net_sentiment_score": -5,
"velocity_score": -13,
"acceleration_score": -12,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.45,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 25,
"fragility_score_0_100": 78,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 6,
"bullish_pressure_score": 33,
"bearish_pressure_score": 27,
"net_sentiment_score": 6,
"velocity_score": 11,
"acceleration_score": 24,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.36,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 33,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 9,
"bullish_pressure_score": 35,
"bearish_pressure_score": 26,
"net_sentiment_score": 9,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": -8,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.32,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 34,
"fragility_score_0_100": 74,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 11,
"bullish_pressure_score": 36,
"bearish_pressure_score": 25,
"net_sentiment_score": 11,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 36,
"fragility_score_0_100": 72,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 36,
"bearish_pressure_score": 24,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.29,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 36,
"fragility_score_0_100": 71,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 13,
"bullish_pressure_score": 37,
"bearish_pressure_score": 24,
"net_sentiment_score": 13,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.29,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 37,
"fragility_score_0_100": 71,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 36,
"bearish_pressure_score": 24,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 36,
"fragility_score_0_100": 72,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 36,
"bearish_pressure_score": 24,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 36,
"fragility_score_0_100": 72,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 11,
"bullish_pressure_score": 36,
"bearish_pressure_score": 25,
"net_sentiment_score": 11,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.31,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 36,
"fragility_score_0_100": 72,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 18,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": -5,
"latest_inflection_direction": "down",
"latest_inflection_strength": 1,
"signal_regime": "mixed_flat"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 12,
"cross_domain_merges": 3,
"stale_suppression_count": 1,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"No trend_physics/trend_state_memory provided; used sentiment/recency proxies (published/timestamp_found, temporal_profile, evidence_bundle metadata) for conservative synthesis.",
"State_change computed with unknown prior state (no prior memory provided); emitted as new_bullish for the current bullish classification."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}