Snapshot

  • subject_area: Uranium futures
  • target_market_code: uranium
  • ticker: uranium
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: RF-DATA-SPARSITY-24H (high)
  • generated_at: 2026-03-15 12:00 UTC
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim (trimmed) prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
uranium B-UR-24H-01 Over the next 24h, uranium futures bias remains upward on persistent nuclear-policy support plus structural supply-risk narratives, but near-term confirmation is thin. 58 up stable 24h false 72
uranium B-UR-6H-01 Over the next 6h, direction is likely mixed-to-slightly-up because the strongest supports are background/persistent rather than fresh catalysts. 52 mixed fading 6h false 72
uranium B-UR-MED-01 Narrative regime suggests supply-side tightening risk remains the dominant medium-term framing (contracting/supply-chain/geopolitical), which tends to support higher uranium prices when re-validated by fresh newsflow. 62 up stable 30d false 72

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "CIS-uranium-20260315T120000Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-15T12:00:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Uranium futures",
 "market_code": "uranium"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 57,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 72,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "uranium",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "uranium"
 ],
 "regime_state": "tightening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-UR-24H-01",
 "market": "uranium",
 "claim": "Over the next 24h, uranium futures bias remains upward on persistent nuclear-policy support plus structural supply-risk narratives, but near-term confirmation is thin.",
 "probability_pct": 58,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "policy_nuclear",
 "reactor_demand",
 "supply_contracting",
 "geopolitical_supply_risk"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "RF-DATA-SPARSITY-24H",
 "RF-STALE-OVERHANG"
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-UR-6H-01",
 "market": "uranium",
 "claim": "Over the next 6h, direction is likely mixed-to-slightly-up because the strongest supports are background/persistent rather than fresh catalysts.",
 "probability_pct": 52,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "fading",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "policy_nuclear",
 "inventory",
 "geopolitical_supply_risk"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "RF-DATA-SPARSITY-24H"
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-UR-MED-01",
 "market": "uranium",
 "claim": "Narrative regime suggests supply-side tightening risk remains the dominant medium-term framing (contracting/supply-chain/geopolitical), which tends to support higher uranium prices when re-validated by fresh newsflow.",
 "probability_pct": 62,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "30d",
 "drivers": [
 "supply_contracting",
 "geopolitical_supply_risk",
 "reactor_demand"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "RF-LOW-AUTHORITY-TAIL"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "uranium",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "weakening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "new_bullish",
 "conviction_score_0_100": 57,
 "freshness_confidence": "low",
 "catalyst_type": "background_persistent",
 "stale_suppression_applied": true,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 72,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-UR-24H-01",
 "B-UR-6H-01",
 "B-UR-MED-01"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag": "RF-STALE-OVERHANG",
 "severity": "medium",
 "market": "uranium",
 "detail": "Directional lean is largely supported by slow-burn/persistent policy & supply-risk narratives; limited clearly-time-stamped fresh directional catalysts inside the last 24h signal set."
 },
 {
 "flag": "RF-DATA-SPARSITY-24H",
 "severity": "high",
 "market": "uranium",
 "detail": "Last-24h bucketed evidence is sparse in the provided signal objects, reducing short-horizon confidence and increasing whipsaw risk."
 },
 {
 "flag": "RF-LOW-AUTHORITY-TAIL",
 "severity": "medium",
 "market": "uranium",
 "detail": "A portion of supporting/related items are single-source VIP/outlier style signals (low corroboration), which increases fragility."
 },
 {
 "flag": "RF-NARRATIVE-WHIPSAW",
 "severity": "medium",
 "market": "uranium",
 "detail": "Mixed policy/regulatory positives versus intermittent risk/anomaly items can shift short-horizon tone quickly without changing the medium-term thesis."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "uranium",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If fresh high-authority policy/supply disruption confirmation appears (<=24h) without a contradiction spike, maintain a long-bias watch posture.",
 "label": "watch_long_bias"
 },
 {
 "market": "uranium",
 "confidence": "high",
 "trigger_condition": "If contradiction ratio rises materially on fresh items (<=6h) or a clear opposing catalyst appears, treat as a reversal-watch regime.",
 "label": "reversal_watch"
 },
 {
 "market": "uranium",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If intraday evidence remains sparse while narrative remains supportive, expect chop/volatility around headlines rather than clean trend.",
 "label": "volatility_watch"
 },
 {
 "market": "uranium",
 "confidence": "low",
 "trigger_condition": "If no fresh confirmation arrives and momentum continues to fade, default to flat/watch until new catalysts appear.",
 "label": "stay_flat"
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "uranium"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 35,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 25,
 "net_sentiment_score": 10,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 35,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 72,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 11,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 36,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 25,
 "net_sentiment_score": 11,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 36,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 72,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 36,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 24,
 "net_sentiment_score": 12,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.29,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 36,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 71,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 36,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 24,
 "net_sentiment_score": 12,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.29,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 36,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 71,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 11,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 36,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 25,
 "net_sentiment_score": 11,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 36,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 72,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 36,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 24,
 "net_sentiment_score": 12,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 41,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 69,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 39,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 21,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": 6,
 "acceleration_score": 5,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 44,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 68,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 15,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 38,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 23,
 "net_sentiment_score": 15,
 "velocity_score": -3,
 "acceleration_score": -9,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.31,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 38,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 70,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 13,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 37,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 24,
 "net_sentiment_score": 13,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.31,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 37,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 71,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 36,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 24,
 "net_sentiment_score": 12,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 36,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 72,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 36,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 24,
 "net_sentiment_score": 12,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 36,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 72,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 11,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 36,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 25,
 "net_sentiment_score": 11,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.31,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 36,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 72,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 35,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 25,
 "net_sentiment_score": 10,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.32,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 35,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 73,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 9,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 35,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 26,
 "net_sentiment_score": 9,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.32,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 34,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 73,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 8,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 34,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 26,
 "net_sentiment_score": 8,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.33,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 34,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 74,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -5,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 28,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 33,
 "net_sentiment_score": -5,
 "velocity_score": -13,
 "acceleration_score": -12,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.45,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 25,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 78,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 6,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 33,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 27,
 "net_sentiment_score": 6,
 "velocity_score": 11,
 "acceleration_score": 24,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.36,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 33,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 75,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 9,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 35,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 26,
 "net_sentiment_score": 9,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": -8,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.32,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 34,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 74,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 11,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 36,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 25,
 "net_sentiment_score": 11,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 36,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 72,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 36,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 24,
 "net_sentiment_score": 12,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.29,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 36,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 71,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 13,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 37,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 24,
 "net_sentiment_score": 13,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.29,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 37,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 71,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 36,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 24,
 "net_sentiment_score": 12,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 36,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 72,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 36,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 24,
 "net_sentiment_score": 12,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 36,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 72,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 11,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 36,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 25,
 "net_sentiment_score": 11,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.31,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 36,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 72,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 18,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": -5,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "down",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 1,
 "signal_regime": "mixed_flat"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 12,
 "cross_domain_merges": 3,
 "stale_suppression_count": 1,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "No trend_physics/trend_state_memory provided; used sentiment/recency proxies (published/timestamp_found, temporal_profile, evidence_bundle metadata) for conservative synthesis.",
 "State_change computed with unknown prior state (no prior memory provided); emitted as new_bullish for the current bullish classification."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}