Snapshot
- subject_area: Silver futures
- target_market_code: silver
- ticker: null
- regime_state: unstable
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: RF-silver-001 (stale_context_overhang)
- generated_at: 2026-03-15T19:00:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market |
belief_id |
claim |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| silver |
B-silver-001 |
Silver futures retain an upside bias over the next 24h as precious-metals flow narratives (ETFs/allocations) and safe-haven demand remain net-supportive. |
62 |
up |
accelerating |
24h |
false |
55 |
| silver |
B-silver-002 |
Near-term (6h) sentiment is modestly improving as multiple silver-relevant threads show same-day refresh, implying incremental bid support. |
58 |
up |
accelerating |
6h |
false |
55 |
| silver |
B-silver-003 |
Reversal/stall risk is non-trivial if rates expectations re-price upward (real rates up / USD up), which would typically compress silver’s upside. |
41 |
mixed |
stable |
24h |
false |
55 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "CIS-6B-silver-20260315T190000Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-15T19:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Silver futures",
"market_code": "silver"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "silver",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"silver"
],
"regime_state": "unstable",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-silver-001",
"market": "silver",
"claim": "Silver futures retain an upside bias over the next 24h as precious-metals flow narratives (ETFs/allocations) and safe-haven demand remain net-supportive.",
"probability_pct": 62,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"precious_metals_flows",
"safe-haven demand narrative persistence",
"ETF/allocation attention (silver-linked products)",
"geopolitical uncertainty spillover into metals"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Hawkish real-rates impulse / USD strength shock (macro flip risk)"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-silver-002",
"market": "silver",
"claim": "Near-term (6h) sentiment is modestly improving as multiple silver-relevant threads show same-day refresh, implying incremental bid support.",
"probability_pct": 58,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"freshness of macro/flows updates (<= 6h)",
"continued attention to silver mining + silver market growth themes"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"data sparsity in very-recent window (limited high-authority, price-proximal catalysts)"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-silver-003",
"market": "silver",
"claim": "Reversal/stall risk is non-trivial if rates expectations re-price upward (real rates up / USD up), which would typically compress silver\u2019s upside.",
"probability_pct": 41,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"usd_strength",
"real_rates",
"Fed expectation sensitivity"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"safe-haven bid persistence and metals-flow reinforcement"
]
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "silver",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"freshness_confidence": "medium",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-silver-001",
"B-silver-002",
"B-silver-003"
]
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF-silver-001",
"market": "silver",
"type": "stale_context_overhang",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "Key supportive narratives span >7 days even though refreshed today; longer-span themes can overstate persistence versus price action."
},
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF-silver-002",
"market": "silver",
"type": "macro_flip_risk",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "Silver is highly sensitive to USD/real-rate repricing; a hawkish re-rate can quickly reduce upside skew."
},
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF-silver-003",
"market": "silver",
"type": "echo_risk_singletons",
"severity": "low",
"details": "At least one very-recent VIP flow signal is single-source and low-diversity; treat as confirmatory-only until corroborated."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "silver",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Maintain bullish bias while same-day flow/safe-haven narratives remain net-positive and no hawkish USD/real-rate shock emerges."
},
{
"market": "silver",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Escalate reversal vigilance if fresh macro signals imply strengthening USD and/or rising real-rate expectations."
},
{
"market": "silver",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Expect volatility if macro headlines cluster in a short window (<=2h) given silver\u2019s sensitivity to rates/FX."
},
{
"market": "silver",
"action": "stay_flat",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "If directional score compresses back into [-20,+20] with rising contradiction ratio (mixed signals) and no fresh confirmation."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"silver"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
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"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 54,
"bearish_pressure_score": 46,
"net_sentiment_score": 8,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 40,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T20:00:00Z",
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"bearish_pressure_score": 45,
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"velocity_score": 2,
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},
{
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},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T22:00:00Z",
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},
{
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{
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{
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},
{
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},
{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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},
{
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},
{
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{
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{
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},
{
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},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T16:00:00Z",
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},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T17:00:00Z",
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},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T18:00:00Z",
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"conviction_score_0_100": 70,
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"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": true,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": [
{
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"velocity_score": 0,
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},
{
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},
{
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"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T14:30:00Z",
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"conviction_score_0_100": 59,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T15:00:00Z",
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"dominant_state": "bullish"
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{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T15:30:00Z",
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{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T16:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 41,
"bullish_pressure_score": 71,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 41,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T16:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 42,
"bullish_pressure_score": 71,
"bearish_pressure_score": 29,
"net_sentiment_score": 42,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 61,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T17:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 44,
"bullish_pressure_score": 72,
"bearish_pressure_score": 28,
"net_sentiment_score": 44,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 53,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T17:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 46,
"bullish_pressure_score": 73,
"bearish_pressure_score": 27,
"net_sentiment_score": 46,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T18:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 49,
"bullish_pressure_score": 74,
"bearish_pressure_score": 25,
"net_sentiment_score": 49,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 67,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T18:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 52,
"bullish_pressure_score": 76,
"bearish_pressure_score": 24,
"net_sentiment_score": 52,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 70,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 52,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 6,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
},
"diagnostics": {
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 8,
"cross_domain_merges": 3,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 12,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Single-market scope enforced: analyzed_markets=['silver'].",
"No explicit contradiction objects provided; contradiction_ratio kept conservative (low) but non-zero due to macro sensitivity.",
"Timeseries bucket values are conservative aggregations derived from admitted signal refresh times and multi-day narrative span (stale overhang), not from per-tick price data."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}
}