Snapshot

  • subject_area: Silver futures
  • target_market_code: silver
  • ticker: null
  • regime_state: unstable
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: RF-silver-001 (stale_context_overhang)
  • generated_at: 2026-03-15T19:00:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
silver B-silver-001 Silver futures retain an upside bias over the next 24h as precious-metals flow narratives (ETFs/allocations) and safe-haven demand remain net-supportive. 62 up accelerating 24h false 55
silver B-silver-002 Near-term (6h) sentiment is modestly improving as multiple silver-relevant threads show same-day refresh, implying incremental bid support. 58 up accelerating 6h false 55
silver B-silver-003 Reversal/stall risk is non-trivial if rates expectations re-price upward (real rates up / USD up), which would typically compress silver’s upside. 41 mixed stable 24h false 55

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "CIS-6B-silver-20260315T190000Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-15T19:00:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Silver futures",
 "market_code": "silver"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "silver",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "silver"
 ],
 "regime_state": "unstable",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-silver-001",
 "market": "silver",
 "claim": "Silver futures retain an upside bias over the next 24h as precious-metals flow narratives (ETFs/allocations) and safe-haven demand remain net-supportive.",
 "probability_pct": 62,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "precious_metals_flows",
 "safe-haven demand narrative persistence",
 "ETF/allocation attention (silver-linked products)",
 "geopolitical uncertainty spillover into metals"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "Hawkish real-rates impulse / USD strength shock (macro flip risk)"
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-silver-002",
 "market": "silver",
 "claim": "Near-term (6h) sentiment is modestly improving as multiple silver-relevant threads show same-day refresh, implying incremental bid support.",
 "probability_pct": 58,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "freshness of macro/flows updates (<= 6h)",
 "continued attention to silver mining + silver market growth themes"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "data sparsity in very-recent window (limited high-authority, price-proximal catalysts)"
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-silver-003",
 "market": "silver",
 "claim": "Reversal/stall risk is non-trivial if rates expectations re-price upward (real rates up / USD up), which would typically compress silver\u2019s upside.",
 "probability_pct": 41,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "usd_strength",
 "real_rates",
 "Fed expectation sensitivity"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "safe-haven bid persistence and metals-flow reinforcement"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "new_bullish",
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "freshness_confidence": "medium",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-silver-001",
 "B-silver-002",
 "B-silver-003"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-silver-001",
 "market": "silver",
 "type": "stale_context_overhang",
 "severity": "medium",
 "details": "Key supportive narratives span >7 days even though refreshed today; longer-span themes can overstate persistence versus price action."
 },
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-silver-002",
 "market": "silver",
 "type": "macro_flip_risk",
 "severity": "medium",
 "details": "Silver is highly sensitive to USD/real-rate repricing; a hawkish re-rate can quickly reduce upside skew."
 },
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-silver-003",
 "market": "silver",
 "type": "echo_risk_singletons",
 "severity": "low",
 "details": "At least one very-recent VIP flow signal is single-source and low-diversity; treat as confirmatory-only until corroborated."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Maintain bullish bias while same-day flow/safe-haven narratives remain net-positive and no hawkish USD/real-rate shock emerges."
 },
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Escalate reversal vigilance if fresh macro signals imply strengthening USD and/or rising real-rate expectations."
 },
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Expect volatility if macro headlines cluster in a short window (<=2h) given silver\u2019s sensitivity to rates/FX."
 },
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "action": "stay_flat",
 "confidence": "low",
 "trigger_condition": "If directional score compresses back into [-20,+20] with rising contradiction ratio (mixed signals) and no fresh confirmation."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "silver"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
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 {
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 {
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 },
 {
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 {
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 {
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 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": true,
 "resolution": "30m",
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 "buckets": [
 {
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 {
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 {
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 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T16:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 42,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 71,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 29,
 "net_sentiment_score": 42,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 61,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T17:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 44,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 72,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 28,
 "net_sentiment_score": 44,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 53,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T17:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 46,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 73,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 27,
 "net_sentiment_score": 46,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 64,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T18:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 49,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 74,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 25,
 "net_sentiment_score": 49,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 67,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T18:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 52,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 76,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 24,
 "net_sentiment_score": 52,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 70,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 52,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 6,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 8,
 "cross_domain_merges": 3,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 12,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Single-market scope enforced: analyzed_markets=['silver'].",
 "No explicit contradiction objects provided; contradiction_ratio kept conservative (low) but non-zero due to macro sensitivity.",
 "Timeseries bucket values are conservative aggregations derived from admitted signal refresh times and multi-day narrative span (stale overhang), not from per-tick price data."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
 }
}