Snapshot
- subject_area: Silver futures
- target_market_code: silver
- ticker:
- regime_state: unstable
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: stale_context_overhang
- generated_at: 2026-03-15T15:00:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| silver | B-SI-001 | Silver futures retain an upside bias over the next 6–24h as precious-metals flow narratives (ETF/“safe-haven” framing) remain supportive alongside broadly positive silver-specific coverage (mining / sector news). | 58 | up | stable | 24h | false | 58 |
| silver | B-SI-002 | Reversal/cap risk is elevated: a rates/real-yields re-pricing or USD-strength impulse could quickly mute silver upside, with small, low-diversity ‘VIP lane’ macro signals acting as early (but low-trust) warning. | 44 | mixed | accelerating | 6h | false | 58 |
| silver | B-SI-003 | Non-price compliance/legal anomaly detection (US Supreme Court exposure seeds) increases signal fragility and raises the chance of abrupt narrative whipsaw without providing a clean directional edge. | 52 | mixed | stable | 24h | false | 58 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{ "workflow_6B_CIS_output": { "snapshot_id": "CIS_silver_20260315T150000Z", "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-15T15:00:00Z", "primary_asset_focus": { "name": "Silver futures", "market_code": "silver" }, "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish", "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 62, "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 58, "commodity_registry": [ "crude_oil", "gold", "natural_gas", "copper", "silver", "wheat", "corn", "uranium", "lithium", "coffee" ], "target_market_code": "silver", "target_resolution_source": "explicit", "scope_mode": "single_market", "analyzed_markets": [ "silver" ], "regime_state": "unstable", "beliefs": [ { "belief_id": "B-SI-001", "market": "silver", "claim": "Silver futures retain an upside bias over the next 6\u201324h as precious-metals flow narratives (ETF/\u201csafe-haven\u201d framing) remain supportive alongside broadly positive silver-specific coverage (mining / sector news).", "probability_pct": 58, "direction": "up", "velocity": "stable", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "precious_metals_flows", "risk-off / safe-haven framing", "silver sector headlines (mining/company/security)" ], "contradicted_by": [ "B-SI-002" ] }, { "belief_id": "B-SI-002", "market": "silver", "claim": "Reversal/cap risk is elevated: a rates/real-yields re-pricing or USD-strength impulse could quickly mute silver upside, with small, low-diversity \u2018VIP lane\u2019 macro signals acting as early (but low-trust) warning.", "probability_pct": 44, "direction": "mixed", "velocity": "accelerating", "horizon": "6h", "drivers": [ "real_rates", "usd_strength", "macro communications risk (Fed speakers / expectations)" ], "contradicted_by": [ "B-SI-001" ] }, { "belief_id": "B-SI-003", "market": "silver", "claim": "Non-price compliance/legal anomaly detection (US Supreme Court exposure seeds) increases signal fragility and raises the chance of abrupt narrative whipsaw without providing a clean directional edge.", "probability_pct": 52, "direction": "mixed", "velocity": "stable", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "risk_anomalies", "headline uncertainty" ], "contradicted_by": [] } ], "market_state_table": [ { "market": "silver", "directional_state": "bullish", "momentum_state": "stable", "reversal_risk": "medium", "state_change": "new_bullish", "conviction_score_0_100": 62, "freshness_confidence": "medium", "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional", "stale_suppression_applied": false, "thesis_kill_switch": false, "late_breaking_alert": false, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "supporting_belief_ids": [ "B-SI-001", "B-SI-003" ] } ], "risk_flags": [ { "flag": "stale_context_overhang", "severity": "medium", "rationale": "Several supportive narratives are multi-week/slow-burn (broad evidence spans), so conviction is capped despite fresh mentions." }, { "flag": "macro_sensitivity_real_rates_usd", "severity": "medium", "rationale": "Silver directional bias is highly sensitive to shifts in interest-rate expectations and USD strength; small counter-signals raise reversal risk even without full confirmation." }, { "flag": "legal_compliance_anomaly_noise", "severity": "medium", "rationale": "Seed-level compliance-gap anomalies (no materialised evidence bundle) increase uncertainty and can amplify headline-driven whipsaw." }, { "flag": "vip_single_source_echo_risk", "severity": "low", "rationale": "Multiple VIP outliers are single-source with echo-risk flagged; treated as weak signals that mainly affect fragility, not direction." } ], "candidate_actions": [ { "market": "silver", "action": "watch_long_bias", "confidence": "medium", "trigger_condition": "Maintain only if supportive flow/safe-haven framing persists and no fresh (<=2h) opposing macro surprise emerges." }, { "market": "silver", "action": "reversal_watch", "confidence": "medium", "trigger_condition": "Escalate if fresh macro/real-rate narrative flips negative with higher-authority confirmation (multi-source, Tier A/B) within the next 6h." }, { "market": "silver", "action": "volatility_watch", "confidence": "low", "trigger_condition": "Escalate if compliance/legal anomaly themes begin to materialise into multi-source coverage (evidence_count rises from seed-only)." }, { "market": "silver", "action": "stay_flat", "confidence": "low", "trigger_condition": "Adopt if contradiction ratio rises materially (e.g., fresh bearish macro + fading flow support) and directional score falls back into neutral band (|score| < 20)." } ], "paper_trade_signal_pack": { "bullish_markets": [ "silver" ], "bearish_markets": [], "neutral_mixed_markets": [], "high_reversal_risk_markets": [] }, "signal_timeseries": { "resolution": "1h", "lookback_hours": 24, "bucket_timezone": "UTC", "buckets": [ { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T15:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T16:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 16, "bullish_pressure_score": 54, "bearish_pressure_score": 38, "net_sentiment_score": 16, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.09, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 48, "fragility_score_0_100": 56, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T16:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T17:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 16, "bullish_pressure_score": 54, "bearish_pressure_score": 38, "net_sentiment_score": 16, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.09, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 48, "fragility_score_0_100": 56, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T17:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T18:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 17, "bullish_pressure_score": 55, "bearish_pressure_score": 38, "net_sentiment_score": 17, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.09, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 49, "fragility_score_0_100": 56, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T18:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T19:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 17, "bullish_pressure_score": 55, "bearish_pressure_score": 38, "net_sentiment_score": 17, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.09, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 49, "fragility_score_0_100": 56, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T19:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T20:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 17, "bullish_pressure_score": 55, "bearish_pressure_score": 38, "net_sentiment_score": 17, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.09, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 49, "fragility_score_0_100": 56, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T20:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T21:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 18, "bullish_pressure_score": 56, "bearish_pressure_score": 38, "net_sentiment_score": 18, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.09, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 50, "fragility_score_0_100": 55, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T21:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T22:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 18, "bullish_pressure_score": 56, "bearish_pressure_score": 38, "net_sentiment_score": 18, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.09, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 50, "fragility_score_0_100": 55, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T22:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T23:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 18, "bullish_pressure_score": 56, "bearish_pressure_score": 38, "net_sentiment_score": 18, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.09, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 50, "fragility_score_0_100": 55, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T23:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T00:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 19, "bullish_pressure_score": 57, "bearish_pressure_score": 38, "net_sentiment_score": 19, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.09, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 51, "fragility_score_0_100": 55, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T00:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T01:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 19, "bullish_pressure_score": 57, "bearish_pressure_score": 38, "net_sentiment_score": 19, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.09, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 51, "fragility_score_0_100": 55, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T01:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T02:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 19, "bullish_pressure_score": 57, "bearish_pressure_score": 38, "net_sentiment_score": 19, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.09, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 51, "fragility_score_0_100": 55, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T02:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T03:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 20, "bullish_pressure_score": 58, "bearish_pressure_score": 38, "net_sentiment_score": 20, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.08, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 53, "fragility_score_0_100": 55, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T03:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T04:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 20, "bullish_pressure_score": 58, "bearish_pressure_score": 38, "net_sentiment_score": 20, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.08, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 53, "fragility_score_0_100": 55, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T04:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T05:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 21, "bullish_pressure_score": 59, "bearish_pressure_score": 38, "net_sentiment_score": 21, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.08, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 54, "fragility_score_0_100": 55, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T05:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T06:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 21, "bullish_pressure_score": 59, "bearish_pressure_score": 38, "net_sentiment_score": 21, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.08, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 54, "fragility_score_0_100": 55, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T06:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T07:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 22, "bullish_pressure_score": 60, "bearish_pressure_score": 38, "net_sentiment_score": 22, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.08, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 56, "fragility_score_0_100": 55, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T07:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T08:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 23, "bullish_pressure_score": 61, "bearish_pressure_score": 38, "net_sentiment_score": 23, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.08, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 57, "fragility_score_0_100": 55, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T08:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T09:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 24, "bullish_pressure_score": 62, "bearish_pressure_score": 38, "net_sentiment_score": 24, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.08, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 58, "fragility_score_0_100": 55, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T09:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T10:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 24, "bullish_pressure_score": 62, "bearish_pressure_score": 38, "net_sentiment_score": 24, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.08, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 58, "fragility_score_0_100": 56, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T10:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T11:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 25, "bullish_pressure_score": 63, "bearish_pressure_score": 38, "net_sentiment_score": 25, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.09, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 60, "fragility_score_0_100": 56, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T11:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T12:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 26, "bullish_pressure_score": 64, "bearish_pressure_score": 38, "net_sentiment_score": 26, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.09, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 61, "fragility_score_0_100": 56, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T12:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T13:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 27, "bullish_pressure_score": 65, "bearish_pressure_score": 38, "net_sentiment_score": 27, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.1, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 63, "fragility_score_0_100": 57, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T13:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T14:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 27, "bullish_pressure_score": 65, "bearish_pressure_score": 38, "net_sentiment_score": 27, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.1, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 63, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T14:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T15:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 28, "bullish_pressure_score": 66, "bearish_pressure_score": 38, "net_sentiment_score": 28, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.12, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 65, "fragility_score_0_100": 65, "dominant_state": "bullish" } ] }, "recent_half_hour_overlay": { "enabled": false, "resolution": "30m", "lookback_hours": 6, "buckets": [] }, "summary": { "timeseries_peak_bullish": 28, "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0, "latest_inflection_direction": "up", "latest_inflection_strength": 9, "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish" } }, "diagnostics": { "trends_seen": 12, "trends_admitted": 10, "cross_domain_merges": 3, "stale_suppression_count": 0, "reversal_flags_count": 1, "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0, "kill_switch_markets_count": 0, "timeseries_bucket_count": 24, "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0, "target_market_custom": false, "target_market_unresolved": false, "input_gate_degraded": false, "notes": [ "Target market resolved explicitly from flight_plan.target_market_code='silver'.", "Two trends were treated as unmapped/non-admitted for silver direction due to weak direct commodity linkage (solar-manufacturing themes without explicit silver mapping).", "No explicit contradiction objects were provided; contradiction_ratio is inferred conservatively from weak counter-signals (VIP lane) plus seed-level risk anomalies.", "Timeseries buckets are conservative because per-record timestamp distribution was not provided to 6B; bucket-level evidence counts reflect coarse allocation from admitted items only." ] }, "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B" }