Snapshot
- subject_area: Silver futures
- target_market_code: silver
- ticker: null
- regime_state: rangebound
- beliefs_count: 2
- top_risk_flag: data_sparsity_recent_window
- generated_at: 2026-03-15 07:00 UTC
- sentiment_word: Mixed
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| silver | B-silver-6h-001 | Over the next 6h, silver futures are more likely to trade choppy/rangebound than trend strongly, as supportive precious-metals flow narratives are offset by macro-rate uncertainty and supply-side headlines. | 60 | mixed | fading | 6h | false | 66 |
| silver | B-silver-24h-001 | Over the next 24h, silver futures have a mild upside tilt but with elevated fragility; any bid appears more flow/macro-driven than a clean, fresh single-catalyst impulse. | 54 | up | stable | 24h | false | 66 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{ "workflow_6B_CIS_output": { "snapshot_id": "6B-20260315-silver-0001", "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-15T07:00:00Z", "primary_asset_focus": { "name": "Silver futures", "market_code": "silver" }, "headline_sentiment_word": "Mixed", "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 41, "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 66, "commodity_registry": [ "crude_oil", "gold", "natural_gas", "copper", "silver", "wheat", "corn", "uranium", "lithium", "coffee" ], "target_market_code": "silver", "target_resolution_source": "explicit", "scope_mode": "single_market", "analyzed_markets": [ "silver" ], "regime_state": "rangebound", "beliefs": [ { "belief_id": "B-silver-6h-001", "market": "silver", "claim": "Over the next 6h, silver futures are more likely to trade choppy/rangebound than trend strongly, as supportive precious-metals flow narratives are offset by macro-rate uncertainty and supply-side headlines.", "probability_pct": 60, "direction": "mixed", "velocity": "fading", "horizon": "6h", "drivers": [ "precious_metals_flows (ETF / trust flow narratives: T-003, T-010, T-020)", "real_rates & policy uncertainty (Fed-related macro headlines: T-005, T-008)", "mine_supply / project headlines (silver mining development: T-021; single-source miner item: VIP-011)" ], "contradicted_by": [ "Lack of high-intensity fresh corroboration in the last ~6h (temporal profiles mostly dormant)", "Late-breaking but unmaterialised legal risk seeds (RA-001, RA-002) add uncertainty without directional clarity" ] }, { "belief_id": "B-silver-24h-001", "market": "silver", "claim": "Over the next 24h, silver futures have a mild upside tilt but with elevated fragility; any bid appears more flow/macro-driven than a clean, fresh single-catalyst impulse.", "probability_pct": 54, "direction": "up", "velocity": "stable", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "precious_metals_flows / silver investment vehicles (T-003, T-010, T-020)", "precious-metals sentiment spillover (safe-haven framing primarily seen in gold narratives: T-004; silver included in multi-asset mentions: T-005, VIP-012)", "idiosyncratic miner/security narratives (T-012) can translate into supply-risk framing (bullish via supply-risk; ambiguous confidence)" ], "contradicted_by": [ "Potential supply-expansion framing in mining development headlines (T-021, VIP-011)", "Macro path uncertainty (rates/USD sensitivity implicit in Fed-related items: T-005, T-008)" ] } ], "market_state_table": [ { "market": "silver", "directional_state": "neutral_mixed", "momentum_state": "weakening", "reversal_risk": "medium", "state_change": "unchanged", "conviction_score_0_100": 41, "freshness_confidence": "medium", "catalyst_type": "background_persistent", "stale_suppression_applied": true, "thesis_kill_switch": false, "late_breaking_alert": false, "fragility_score_0_100": 66, "supporting_belief_ids": [ "B-silver-6h-001", "B-silver-24h-001" ] } ], "risk_flags": [ { "risk_flag": "data_sparsity_recent_window", "market": "silver", "level": "medium", "description": "Most admitted narratives appear slow-burn/dormant; limited explicit high-intensity evidence within the last ~6h." }, { "risk_flag": "macro_policy_path_uncertainty", "market": "silver", "level": "medium", "description": "Fed/rates-related items are present but not clearly one-directional for silver; can swing precious metals quickly." }, { "risk_flag": "narrative_whipsaw_risk", "market": "silver", "level": "medium", "description": "Flow/safe-haven narratives (bullish) coexist with mining development / supply framing (potentially bearish), raising reversal risk." }, { "risk_flag": "late_breaking_unmaterialised_risk_seed", "market": "silver", "level": "low", "description": "Very recent compliance-gap risk seeds mention US Supreme Court but lack materialised evidence; treated as uncertainty only (RA-001, RA-002)." } ], "candidate_actions": [ { "market": "silver", "confidence": "medium", "action": "stay_flat", "trigger_condition": "Directional score remains inside neutral band (|score| < 20) AND no fresh high-authority catalyst appears." }, { "market": "silver", "confidence": "medium", "action": "volatility_watch", "trigger_condition": "Macro/rates headlines accelerate OR contradiction rises (mixed drivers intensify), increasing whipsaw probability." }, { "market": "silver", "confidence": "medium", "action": "reversal_watch", "trigger_condition": "A fresh, high-authority opposing signal appears within <=2h and materially shifts net directional score beyond +/-20." }, { "market": "silver", "confidence": "low", "action": "watch_long_bias", "trigger_condition": "Precious-metals flow narratives corroborate across multiple sources AND net directional score sustains >= +20 with improving freshness." }, { "market": "silver", "confidence": "low", "action": "watch_short_bias", "trigger_condition": "Supply-expansion framing strengthens with fresh evidence AND net directional score sustains <= -20 with rising conviction." } ], "paper_trade_signal_pack": { "bullish_markets": [], "bearish_markets": [], "neutral_mixed_markets": [ "silver" ], "high_reversal_risk_markets": [] }, "signal_timeseries": { "resolution": "1h", "lookback_hours": 24, "bucket_timezone": "UTC", "buckets": [ { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T07:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T08:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 10, "bullish_pressure_score": 40, "bearish_pressure_score": 30, "net_sentiment_score": 10, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.35, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 40, "fragility_score_0_100": 60, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T08:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T09:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 10, "bullish_pressure_score": 40, "bearish_pressure_score": 30, "net_sentiment_score": 10, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.35, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, 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"fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 35, "fragility_score_0_100": 65, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T16:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T17:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 4, "bullish_pressure_score": 34, "bearish_pressure_score": 30, "net_sentiment_score": 4, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.41, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 34, "fragility_score_0_100": 66, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T17:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T18:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 3, "bullish_pressure_score": 33, "bearish_pressure_score": 30, "net_sentiment_score": 3, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.42, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 33, "fragility_score_0_100": 67, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T18:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T19:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 2, "bullish_pressure_score": 32, "bearish_pressure_score": 30, "net_sentiment_score": 2, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.43, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 32, "fragility_score_0_100": 68, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T19:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T20:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 2, "bullish_pressure_score": 32, "bearish_pressure_score": 30, "net_sentiment_score": 2, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.43, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 32, "fragility_score_0_100": 68, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T20:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T21:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 3, 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"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T01:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T02:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 8, "bullish_pressure_score": 38, "bearish_pressure_score": 30, "net_sentiment_score": 8, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.37, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 38, "fragility_score_0_100": 62, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T02:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T03:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 9, "bullish_pressure_score": 39, "bearish_pressure_score": 30, "net_sentiment_score": 9, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.36, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 39, "fragility_score_0_100": 61, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T03:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T04:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 9, "bullish_pressure_score": 39, "bearish_pressure_score": 30, "net_sentiment_score": 9, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.36, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 39, "fragility_score_0_100": 61, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T04:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T05:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 8, "bullish_pressure_score": 38, "bearish_pressure_score": 30, "net_sentiment_score": 8, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.37, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 38, "fragility_score_0_100": 62, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T05:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T06:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 8, "bullish_pressure_score": 38, "bearish_pressure_score": 30, "net_sentiment_score": 8, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.37, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 38, "fragility_score_0_100": 62, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T06:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T07:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 8, "bullish_pressure_score": 38, "bearish_pressure_score": 30, "net_sentiment_score": 8, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.38, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 39, "fragility_score_0_100": 64, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" } ] }, "recent_half_hour_overlay": { "enabled": false, "resolution": "30m", "lookback_hours": 6, "buckets": [] }, "summary": { "timeseries_peak_bullish": 10, "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0, "latest_inflection_direction": "flat", "latest_inflection_strength": 0, "signal_regime": "mixed_flat" } }, "diagnostics": { "trends_seen": 12, "trends_admitted": 8, "cross_domain_merges": 2, "stale_suppression_count": 1, "reversal_flags_count": 1, "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0, "kill_switch_markets_count": 0, "timeseries_bucket_count": 24, "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0, "target_market_custom": false, "target_market_unresolved": false, "input_gate_degraded": false, "notes": [ "Target scope locked to single market: silver (explicit).", "Admitted signals prioritised those explicitly tied to silver / precious-metals flows (e.g., silver trust/ETF narratives, silver mining/security items, macro-rate framing).", "Stale suppression applied: many narratives show 'dormant' temporal profiles and limited high-intensity evidence inside the last ~6h, capping conviction.", "State-change set to 'unchanged' because no prior market_state_table/trend_state_memory was provided (prior unknown).", "Unmapped_signal_count_estimate=2 (solar-manufacturing themes not confidently force-mapped to silver without explicit linkage)." ] }, "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B" }